Graeme Wearden 

FTSE 100 hits nine-month high; US job creation slows sharply – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, today
South Korean dealers work in front of monitors at the Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, today Photograph: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA

Closing post: London stock market at nine-month peak

And finally, the FTSE 100 has ended the day at its highest closing level since the first week of March.

The blue-chip index has closed 60 points higher at 6550 points, a gain of 0.9% today.

Miners and oil companies led today’s rally, showing increased optimism about economic prospects -- with Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out imminently, and pressure building on Congress to agree a new aid deal.

The FTSE earlier hit an intraday high of 6559 points, which is also its highest level since the pandemic sent markets crashing in February and March.

BP was the top riser, up 3.9%, with Royal Dutch Shell up 3.3%.

Gambling firm Flutter gained 3.4%, adding to Thursday’s surge after it announced a $4.2bn deal to increase its control of the daily fantasy sports company FanDuel.

The smaller FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized companies, crept up by 0.25% to its highest level since February.

European markets also rallied, with the Stoxx 600 ending 0.5% higher. Most European indices posted their fifth straight weeks of gains.

Wall Street is holding onto its record highs too, with today’s weak US jobs report driving stocks higher.

The news that just 245,000 new jobs were created in America last month has alarmed economists, but bolstered hopes that Capitol Hill might get its act together on the stimulus package.

It feels like bad news is good news again, as Neil Wilson of Markets.com explains:

Markets are ending the week on a firm footing with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average climbing to fresh record intraday highs.

The soft employment report though is seen as a positive for stocks since it ought to incentivize Congress to pass a stimulus bill this year. When you have over 9m fewer jobs since the pandemic hit you’d want an economic recovery to be developing at a faster rate and the disappointing numbers underline the urgency in getting stimulus to those who need and act as a bridge until vaccines are rolled out.

So, in other news....

Oil has risen to its highest level since March, with Brent crude approaching $50 per barrel after Opec and Russia agreed to only increase production slightly next month.

Denmark has brought an immediate end to new oil and gas exploration in the Danish North Sea as part of a plan to phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2050

UK construction firms have warned of lengthening delays for materials, and stretched supply chains, as new business hits a six-year high.

The English lockdown hit the car industry, though, with sales falling 27% in November

Lidl and Pets at Home have decided to repay their business rates relief granted during the pandemic. That pushes the total surrendered this week by companies who traded through the pandemic to nearly £2bn.

Primark, which had to shut, says it experienced a “phenomenal” jump in sales this week since stores were allowed to reopen.

The pound has hit its highest level against the US dollar since May 2018, but then fallen back below $1.35 as UK-EU negotiations continue.

Goodnight, and have a lovely weekend. GW

Updated

In an illustration of the changes caused by Covid-19, Lloyds Banking Group is redeploying 700 staff into full-time homeworking roles from 2021.

It’s the latest sign that big banks are embracing remote working even as vaccines put the end of Covid restrictions in sight, as my colleague Kalyeena Makortoff reports:

The UK’s largest domestic lender – which has 50,000 of its 65,000 employees working from home because of the outbreak – temporarily shifted about 1,000 workers from Halifax, Lloyds and Bank of Scotland branches to customer service teams, in order to cope with a surge in demand in areas such as telephone banking and video chats during the outbreak.

The Guardian understands about 700 staff will be permanently moved, making it the largest tranche of Lloyds workers to ever be shifted into homeworking roles full-time.

Here’s the full story:

The pound has dropped back from its earlier 30-month high, and is trading back below the $1.35 mark.

There’s no sign of a Brexit breakthrough.... the latest chatter is that negotiators have taken a break, but are going to resume tonight.

Updated

Joe Biden’s incoming economic team is filled with firsts, my colleague Dominic Rushe writes.

The lineup that the incoming president introduced this week will, if approved, place women and people of color at the controls of the US economy during one of the darkest periods in recent history.

While the team is historic, it also faces a historic challenge. Unemployment has fallen dramatically since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. It fell to 6.7% in November. But it remains 3.2 percentage points above its level before Covid-19 struck, jobs growth is slowing sharply, long-term unemployment is growing and people of color are still suffering hardship at far higher levels than white Americans.

The pandemic has also exacerbated already worrying levels of income inequality, and across the US, shocking lines are forming at food banks as the country’s already frayed social safety net collapses.

That line-up includes former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen as treasury secretary, Neera Tanden, president of the left-leaning Center for American Progress, to head the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Adewale Adeyemo, a former BlackRock advisor, as deputy treasury secretary, and Cecilia Rouse, dean of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.

You can learn more about them all here:

S&P 500 hits record high after weak jobs report

Boom. Wall Street has hit another record high.

Investors seem to be anticipating that Congress could agree the new bipartisan $908bn coronavirus aid plan produced this week, given the warning signs flashing from the jobs market.

This has pushed the S&P 500 index up to 3686 points, a new peak.

As Reuters puts it:

The S&P 500 jumped to an all-time high on Friday as data showing the slowest jobs growth in six months reinforced expectations for a new fiscal stimulus bill to help revive the economy from its worst downturn in decades.

Analysts said the dismal report could spur policymakers to push harder for a stimulus bill as more than 13 million people were due to lose their government-funded unemployment benefits on Dec. 26 without quick action by Congress.

“The bad news of the weakening jobs picture is potentially good news for investors because it means that the stimulus bill is much more likely to take place in a fairly short time frame,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in North Carolina.

The Dow has also just nudged a new record high too.

Economics professor Nouriel Roubini has shown neatly why the slowdown in US job creation is worrying:

Orders at US factories have continued to rise, with a 1% pick-up in October.

That’s the sixth monthly increase in a row, although down on the 1.3% recorded in September.

Wall Street has responded to the worrying slowdown in US jobs creation by... rising at the opening bell.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 122 points, or 0.4%, at 30,091 points, close to its record highs.

As broker Jim Iuorio, managing director of TJM Institutional Services points out, a deteriorating jobs market increases the pressure on Capitol Hill to approve a stimulus deal.

Pound highest since May 2018 against US dollar

Sterling has climbed to its highest level against the US dollar in around two and a half years.

The pound has jumped by over 0.5% today to $1.3539, the highest level since mid-May.

That’s partly because the US dollar has weakened to a two and half-year low against a basket of currencies after the dire Non-Farm Payroll report on the US jobs market.

But it may also signal some optimism of a breakthrough in the UK-EU free trade deal talks.

Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics reckons a deal is largely priced in, and warns that the pound could fall sharply in a no-deal scenario...

The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our year-end $1.35/£ forecast it seems like the market agrees.

However, a Brexit deal is far from nailed on and a breakdown in negotiations could send the pound down to $1.15 in a “cooperative” no deal or $1.10 in an “uncooperative” no deal.

The pound is also up against the euro, gaining around 0.3% to €1.112 (only a two-day high).

Cracks are starting to show in the US labor market, warns Glassdoor’s senior economist Daniel Zhao:

“As the pandemic surges, labor market recovery is clearly decelerating and cracks are beginning to show. The unemployment rate dropped slightly and job growth cooled in today’s report. Employment is still 9.8 million short of pre-crisis levels. At November’s pace, we wouldn’t see a return to pre-crisis employment levels until 2024.

Today’s report is a firm reminder that we’re not out of the woods yet. Even with a vaccine on the horizon, many are bracing for a long winter ahead. The strong recovery we saw this summer is gone, but it’s important that we sustain the gains we have made as we wait for a vaccine to be ready and available.”

Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton, is worried that the number of Americans who have been out of work for at least six months is rising:

“After better than expected jobless claims data yesterday, the November payrolls number is much weaker than expected. The employment data in the US has been ambiguous in the signs it has been giving for some time now. This is probably not surprising given the position we are in.

What is more worrying is that the number of long-term unemployed is ticking up. A fiscal stimulus package and a vaccine can’t come soon enough.

The slowdown in US job creation emphasises the need for a new stimulus package, says Robert Alster, CIO at wealth manager Close Brothers Asset Management:

“As COVID infections continue to rise across the US, the importance of these jobs figures can’t be overstated.

“Despite increasingly promising vaccine news, the reality is we are still some way off a widespread rollout. This, in addition to unemployment figures, means one of the incoming White House administration’s first priorities will be developing a new stimulus package.

“But today the US is effectively rudderless as the world waits for January’s inauguration to get a glimpse of how President-elect Joe Biden will seek to run the largest economy in the world.”

Full story: US jobs market recovery slows amid surge in Covid-19 cases

Here’s our US business editor Dominic Rushe on the slump in US job creation last month:

The recovery in the US jobs market collapsed in November as cases of Covid-19 hit new records, government figures revealed on Friday.

The US added just 245,000 new jobs in November, less than the 638,000 jobs added in October, the 672,000 jobs added in September and the 1.4m jobs added in August. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%.

Jobs growth has now slowed month on month since June and the latest report highlighted another worrying trend – the growth in long-term unemployment. In November, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 385,000 to 3.9 million, accounting for 36.9% of the total unemployed.

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply from a record high of 14.7% in April but is still 3.2 percentage points higher than it was in February, before the coronavirus struck the US.

The downturn also continues to disproportionately affect people of color. The unemployment rate for black Americans was 10.5% in November, for Latinos it was 8.4% and for whites 5.9%.

November’s figures were dragged down by the loss of temporary hiring for the government’s latest census, which accounted for the loss of 96,000 jobs. But other sectors also lost jobs, notably retail which shed 35,000 jobs.

The jobs report also shows that US retailers are hiring fewer staff than usual for the holiday season:

The pace of US job creation has been slowing for some months now, and has yet to make up for April -- when more than 20 million people became unemployed.

The drop in the US labor force participation rate is not a good sign (it shows fewer people are either working or looking for a job).

The early verdict is that this is a bad US jobs report, with the pace of new hires slowing sharply:

US job creation slows sharply amid pandemic

Just 245,000 new jobs were created across the US in November, weaker than expected, as the Covid-19 pandemic hits America’s economy.

That’s a sharp slowdown on October, when 610,000 new jobs were created (that’s been revised down from 638k).

Economists had expected the Non-Farm Payroll to rise by around 440,000 (although there were a wide range of forecasts), so this is a significant miss.

It will fuel concerns that America’s economy is faltering, and raise more pressure to agree a stimulus deal quickly.

The jobless rate has fallen, to 6.7% in November from 6.9% in October.

But, in another worrying sign, the labor force participation rate has also dropped - to 61.5% from 61.7%. That suggests that more people are stopping looking for work.

Updated

While the Opec+ agreement to raise cautiously lift production has short-term implications, Denmark has taken a longer-term decision - deciding to end all new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

The move is part of a broader plan to phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2050, as my colleague Jillian Ambrose explains:

On Thursday night the Danish government voted in favour of the plans to cancel the country’s next North Sea oil and gas licensing round, 80 years after it first began exploring its hydrocarbon reserves.

Denmark’s 55 existing oil and gas platforms, scattered across 20 oil and gas fields, will be allowed to continue extracting fossil fuels but the milestone decision to end the hunt for new reserves in the ageing basin will guarantee an end to Denmark’s fossil fuel production.

“We are now putting a final end to the fossil era,” Denmark’s climate minister, Dan Jørgensen, said.

Helene Hagel from Greenpeace Denmark described the parliamentary vote as “a watershed moment” that will allow the country to “assert itself as a green frontrunner and inspire other countries to end our dependence on climate-wrecking fossil fuels”.

Several supermarkets, including Lidl today, have insisted they’d been considering what to do about their business rates relief for some time.

It was granted back in March, as part of the rescue packages for retail, leisure and hospitality firms, so they’ve had plenty of time to mull things over.

Until recently, supermarkets seemed convinced that they deserved to keep the help, having run up large costs keeping the nation safely fed.

But minds were clearly focused by Tesco handing back its windfall, back on Wednesday morning. Suddenly it was decision time...and many senior executives realised that their position was untenable too -- especially with this autumn’s second lockdown giving them another sales boost.

As my colleague Nils Pratley writes today, the bigger picture is that business rates need to be urgently reformed (as the CEOs of Tesco and Sainsbury both pointed out).

The basic unfairness is now glaring: the clunky mechanics haven’t caught up with huge shifts in property values, which form the basis of the calculations. Simon Wolfson, the chief executive of Next, put it this way in a BBC interview a couple of months ago: “Over the last six or seven years the price of warehousing has gone up dramatically, and the price of shops have come down dramatically, but both of their rates have remained exactly the same.”

Wolfson thought a fair system would raise rates on warehousing between 30% and 50% to fund reductions for shops. Since Next generates half its turnover online, he can’t be accused of talking his book.

For his part, Murphy at Tesco would opt for an online sales tax. Yes, that’s a popular idea. And, as he pointed on Sky News on Thursday, many of the high streets affected most severely by the rates system are those at the centre of the government’s “levelling up” plans. If regeneration is to happen, it’ll take more than tweaks.

The supermarkets’ progress towards a honourable position on pandemic relief has been slightly farcical. We’ve enjoyed the verbal gymnastics. But if they’ve also boosted the case for reform of the rotten rates system, good luck to them. Rishi Sunak is a busy chancellor but he needs to act.

Back in the City, the FTSE 100 is pushing higher -- now up 63 points at 6553 points, a new nine-month high.

Airline group IAG is now the top riser, up 4.4%, followed by oil group BP (+4%).

Associated British Food has jumped 3.5%, after its Primark division said trading had been ‘phenomenal’ trading since lockdowns ended this week

The pound has been rather jumpy. It’s currently flat at $1.346, having hit a one-year high around $1.35 last night before dropping back, as the UK-EU trade talks continue.

Supermarkets and retailers hand back £1.9bn of business rates relief

Major UK supermarkets and retailers have now agreed to waive around £1.9bn of business rates relief this week.

That’s a handy windfall for ministers, which could be used to help firms in real distress.

Here’s the latest tally, following Lidl and Pets At Home’s announcements today:

  • Tesco: £585m
  • Morrison’s: £274m
  • Sainsbury: £410m (and not take up £30m next year)
  • Asda: £340m
  • Aldi: More than £100m
  • Lidl: More than £100m
  • B&M: £80m
  • Pets At Home: £28.9m

Lidl to repay £100m business rates relief

Just in. Discount supermarket chain Lidl has decided to repay more than £100m business rates relief which it received in the UK during the pandemic.

Lidl insists that it has been considering the issue for some time, but has now “brought forward plans to return the relief” to the UK government and the Devolved Administrations.

This comes two days after Tesco became the first to bow to pressures from critics, who argued that supermarkets -- who kept trading through the pandemic and saw a boom in sales -- didn’t deserve or need the tax relief.

Lidl (echoing similar comments from its rivals), says it was “incredibly grateful” for the support, which let it quickly introduce safety measures, buy 4 million masks and 5,000 protective checkout screens, raise stock levels and hire 2,500 temporary staff.

But, with footfall in stores continuing to grow, the firm is “well placed” to manage any further changes due to the pandemic, so it’s going to waive the business rates relief.

Christian Härtnagel, CEO Lidl GB said:

“The business rates relief that was provided to us, and the rest of the supermarket sector, came with a lot of responsibility that we took extremely seriously.

“We’ve been considering this for some time, and we are now in a position to confirm that we will be refunding this money as we believe it is the right thing to do. We feel confident that the business is well positioned to navigate and adapt to any further challenges brought by COVID-19.”

Cinema chain Cineworld is missing out on today’s rally, with shares sliding 11% after Warner Bros announced is launching its 2021 movies simultaneously on HBO Max and in cinemas in the US.

It’s another blow to chains such as Cineworld, who temporarily closed their screens in the US and UK this autumn after film studios postponed major releases amid the pandemic.

My colleague Mark Sweney explains:

Warner Bros is set to stream its entire slate of new movies from Dune to the Matrix sequel at the same time as cinema release next year, ending the decades-old exclusivity period that theatre owners are relying on to win back film-goers post-pandemic.

The shock announcement will see Warner Bros entire slate of 17 films due for release next year debut on new streaming service HBO Max for one month in the US at the same time as it releases them in cinemas. The announcement does not at this stage impact how films are released in international markets including the UK, where theatre owners have traditionally enjoyed running films for months before they are made available on other platforms such as pay-TV and streaming.

However, Warner Bros move, designed to maximise film profits given audiences are not expected to return to theatres in major numbers next year, is likely to be aped by other Hollywood studios who have used cinema closures during the pandemic to test new release models for movies.

“No one wants films back on the big screen more than we do,” said Ann Sarnoff, chief executive of WarnerMedia Studios. “But we have to balance this with the reality that most theatres in the US will likely operate at reduced capacity throughout 2021. We see it as a win-win for film lovers and exhibitors.”

However, investors in beleaguered movie chains took the news badly with shares in Cineworld, the UK’s biggest operator and second largest in the world, fell by 11%. Shares in AMC, the world’s biggest chain and owner of Odeon in the UK, dropped 16% in the US on Thursday.

“Our content is extremely valuable, unless it’s sitting on a shelf not being seen by anyone,” said Jason Kilar, the co-founder of the successful Hulu streaming service in the US who now runs WarnerMedia.

Last year, the global cinema box office hit a record $42bn. However, with the pandemic causing cinemas to be shut for months on end, and nervous Hollywood studios shifting major releases to future years over fears movie fans won’t return in major numbers, global box office takings are likely to slump to about $12bn.

Analysts are forecasting that the bounce back next year is likely to be muted, between $25bn and $27bn, which is prompting Hollywood studios to look at hybrid release models to maximise profits from their films.

Updated

UK construction orders surge, but supply chains struggle and job cuts continue

Britain’s building industry grew at a faster pace last month, thanks to new orders surging to a six-year high.

However, construction companies also report that it’s harder to get hold of raw materials and building products -- meaning longer delays, and higher prices.

That’s the message from IHS Markit’s healthcheck on the sector. It found that output accelerated in November, led by housebuilding.

Across the sector, new order volumes expanded at the quickest pace since October 2014, but overall headcounts continued to fall.

Markit says:

Employment remained a weak spot, but the latest fall in staffing numbers was the slowest since February. Despite rising business activity and incoming new work, some firms reported ongoing job cuts amid efforts to reduce overheads.

Overall, the construction PMI rose to 54.7 in November, up from 53.1 in October (anything over 50 shows growth).

House building was the best-performing area in November (with a PMI of 59.2, showing strong growth. Civil engineering returned to growth in November (52.3), while commercial work increased only marginally (51.9), which is the slowest rate for six months.

But this increased growth is means higher demand for construction products and materials -is putting pressure on supply chains.

Tim Moore, economics director at IHS Markit, explains:

“Supply chain challenges remain on the horizon, as signalled by another sharp lengthening of lead times for construction products and materials.

Transport delays and low stocks among suppliers were reported by construction firms in November, which led to the fastest increase in purchasing costs for over one-and-a-half years.”

Duncan Brock, Group Director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, is disappointed that builders keep cutting staff, creating a “cheerless” employment picture.

In a bid to dampen down the effects of the sharpest rise in input costs since April 2019, builders were reducing headcounts to keep their own heads above water leading to another fall in job numbers.

As more work fills the sector’s pipelines, the necessity to recruit is likely to become more urgent, and the shortfall could be reversed barring further disruption.

Demand for electric cars continued to grow last month, while sales of diesel more than halved compared with a year ago.

The SMMT explains:

Market share for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) continued to grow significantly, up 122.4% and 76.9% respectively.

BEVs recorded their third highest ever monthly share of registrations at 9.1%, while PHEV share increased to 6.8% – a combined total of more than 18,000 new zero-emission capable cars joining Britain’s roads.

Lockdown drives UK car sales to lowest since 2008 recession

Car sales across the UK have gone into reverse again, as the latest Covid-19 lockdown restrictions hit the economy.

New car registrations slumped by 27% in November - when England was in lockdown - to 113,781 new registrations, taking trade back to levels last seen during the 2008 recession.

Although a blow to the industry, it’s less severe than in April when registrations fell by a record 97.3% [making Tesla briefly the market leader for sales, as it doesn’t rely on showrooms].

This time around, car dealers were better prepared, and had lined up deliveries or click and collect schemes. But still, private demand slumped by 32% while registrations by large fleets saw a decline of 22.1%

2020 has been a rough year for the car industry (like so many others), with sales down 30%,or 663,761 units.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said,

“Compared with the spring lockdown, manufacturers, dealers and consumers were all better prepared to adjust to constrained trading conditions. But with £1.3 billion worth of new car revenue lost in November alone, the importance of showroom trading to the UK economy is evident and we must ensure they remain open in any future Covid restrictions.

More positively, with a vaccine now approved, the business and consumer confidence on which this sector depends can only improve, giving the industry more optimism for the turn of the year.”

Updated

Pets at Home to repay business rates relief

Pets at Home has followed UK supermarkets and become the latest high street retailer to repay the £28.9m it received in business rates relief during the pandemic.

It comes a day after Sainsbury’s, Asda, B&M and Aldi joined rivals Tesco and Morrisons in repaying business rates relief, bringing the total handed back to the Treasury to £1.8bn.

The pet store chain said it was “extremely grateful” for the financial support it received in March but had decided to repay the entire sum “in full”, after its status as an essential retailer meant it was able to keep its doors open throughout the pandemic.

Pets at Home said it was confident that the business was strong enough to absorb the £35m costs thrown up by the pandemic, without taking the emergency government support.

Pets at Home chief executive Peter Pritchard said:

“We were very grateful for the rates relief provided back in March during a time of significant uncertainty, which helped us to take the decision to keep our stores, online operations and veterinary practices open. Recent positive news around the launch of vaccinations for Covid-19 has led us to reassess the level of uncertainty ahead.”

He added:

“Our decision today demonstrates our clear commitment to acting responsibly and treating all of our stakeholders fairly.”

Optimism about the economic recovery pushed the FTSE 100 to its post-pandemic high this morning, says Neil Wilson of Markets.com:

The move coincides with an increasingly bullish stance on UK equities being taken by investors on hopes for a broad cyclical recovery in 2021 led by vaccines and a UK-EU trade deal being struck.

Meanwhile market sentiment may improve as a US stimulus package inches closer to becoming real, with lawmakers getting behind the bipartisan $908bn package on the table now.

News that Pfizer would only deliver half the vaccines it had planned to this year due to supply chain problems took a little of the shine off risk and the S&P 500 yesterday after it had struck a record intra-day high.

European stock markets are also mostly higher in early trading, with the FTSE 100 outpacing the rest of the pack:

The copper price, often seen as a bellwether of economic demand, has hit an eight-year high this morning.

That highlights that vaccine optimism, and the push for a new US stimulus package, is lifting confidence.

Here’s Reuters take:

By providing support for the economy through the winter, additional stimulus would reduce risks of a double-dip recession,” said ANZ in a note.

Three-month copper, often used as a gauge of global economic health, on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.3% to $7,772 a tonne, its highest since March 2013, and was up 3.4% on a weekly basis.

Oil hits nine-month high after Opec+ deal

Oil companies are helping to drive the FTSE 100 to a nine-month high this morning, after the Opec group and Russia agreed a production deal.

After much wrangling, the oil producers agreed to only raise production by 500,000 barrels per day from January. That’s rather less than the 2m bpd they’d previously inked in.

The decision means that oil output will only increase modestly next month, when existing supply cuts end.

The news pushed Brent crude as high as $49.92 per barrel this morning, close to the $50 mark for the first time since early March.

Shares in energy firms are rallying too, with Royal Dutch Shell and BP both up 2%.

However, Opec+ also agreed that future output levels will be decided at monthly meetings, creating the possibility of tensions in 2021.... especially if crude prices keep rising, tempting suppliers to pump more.

FTSE 100 hits nine-month high

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After a rough year, Britain’s FTSE 100 is ending 2020 on the front foot.

The blue-chip index has jumped to a new nine-month high this morning, as investors hope that 2021 will bring better economic times.

The FTSE 100 has gained 40 points, or 0.6%, to 6,530 points -- its highest level since the first week of March, when global markets were in meltdown as the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe.

The rally comes as momentum builds behind a new proposal for a $908bn coronavirus stimulus bill in America. The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus told CNBC on Thursday.

Republican Representative Tom Reed told CNBC last night that the tide on Capitol Hill is shifting in favor of compromising to pass a new economic stimulus package

“The bottom line is, this is right in the range of reason. It’s not a perfect bill, but it is a compromise bill that can bring people together.”

Optimism that Covid-19 vaccines will roll out soon are also lifting stocks in London (despite a report in the Wall Street Journal that Pfizer has suffered some supply chain problems).

Fiona Cincotta of Gain Capital explains:

News that Pfizer has cut its rollout target for the covid vaccine by half, owing to supply chain obstacles has knocked risk sentiment. Vaccine optimism put the markets on a stellar run across November as investors priced in the end of the pandemic and a return to pre-pandemic growth, regardless of the dire few months expected before the vaccine becomes widely available. Then news from Pfizer means that it could now take longer to reach the end of the pandemic tunnel, but with other vaccines also coming, this is more of a setback rather than risk reset news.

However, optimism surrounding a large US economic stimulus package is helping lift US futures after the close. A $908 billion rescue package in the world’s largest economy now appears within reach, offering support to the global risk sentiment picture, off-setting some vaccine disappointment

The wider markets could be muted until the latest US unemployment report is released (1.30pm GMT), showing how many jobs were created in America last month.

There’s a wide range of guesstimates, from over 700,000 to below 200,000, as economists try to assess the impact of its worsening pandemic.

But on average, job creation is expected to slow, to below 500,000 new jobs in November from 638,000 in October, as Covid-19 cases and deaths rise relentlessly higher in the US.

The agenda

  • 9.30am GMT: UK construction PMI for November
  • 1.30pm GMT: US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report for November
  • 3pm GMT: US Factory orders
 

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