Rail services in Britain are likely to be slashed by about 50% in the coming weeks, as a result of Covid travel restrictions, as airlines look to cut schedules and holiday firms cancel bookings for the coming months.
The government is to consult with train operators over services to be removed from the schedule, as it seeks to cut the running costs of the now effectively nationalised railway.
Rail firms expect that the rules introduced on Monday, which instruct people to stay home for work wherever possible and ban non-essential travel, will mean journeys fall back towards the levels of the first lockdown in 2020. At that time, passenger numbers were down to as little as 4% of pre-Covid levels and many trains ran effectively empty.
Train operators are also braced for staff falling sick or needing to self-isolate with Covid infection rising across the UK.
No official figures for usage in 2021 are yet available for national rail, but Transport for London said tube journeys on Tuesday morning, the first peak hours under new lockdown rules, were 18% of pre-pandemic numbers, while bus journeys were at 30%.
Both are so far significantly higher than the lowest weekday figures during the 2020 lockdowns (5% and 16%), possibly reflecting the broader exceptions for permitted travel for support bubbles.
The Department for Transport said: “We will work with operators in the coming days to assess the right level of service provision as we have done throughout the pandemic.
“While we cannot predict the long-term effect of Covid-19 on travel patterns, it is critical that we ensure the railway can respond quickly to changes in passenger demand whilst supporting economic recovery.”
The shortfall in ticket revenue is mainly shouldered by the government under emergency recovery contracts agreed across the industry in October, and ministers are anxious to curtail costs that have already risen to £9bn in additional subsidy since franchises were replaced in March.
Grand Central, which runs services between London and the north-east and still relies on fare income, on Tuesday suspended all its services throughout January and February.
In the first lockdown, operators ran timetables roughly equivalent to Sunday services, about 55% of weekday levels, gradually restoring services through the autumn until 87% of trains ran, allowing for social distancing as passengers returned.
Robert Nisbet, a director of industry body the Rail Delivery Group, said: “We are working closely with government to ensure we run the right level of services … By increasing cleaning and providing better customer information, our people are ensuring that those who must travel can do so with confidence.”
Meanwhile, British Airways and EasyJet said they were reviewing their flight schedules. A BA spokesperson said: “Our focus is on keeping crucial air links open – transporting vital goods and ensuring people who are permitted to travel can continue to do so safely.”
BA passengers whose flights are still operating can choose to accept a voucher or rebook, while customers of BA holidays travelling before 12 February will be refunded.
EasyJet said it would reduce its schedules to UK domestic connections and a small number of international routes. It said all customers unable to travel as a result of the lockdown restrictions, whether the flights were cancelled or not, could rebook or obtain a refund. The airline renewed its calls on the Treasury for bespoke support for the sector, “such as has been provided to hospitality, where decisions have directly affected the ability to trade. The same principle should be applied to aviation.”
Tour operator Tui said it was cancelling holidays departing before 31 January, and until mid-February from English airports. The company is contacting customers due to travel in departure date order to offer rebookings, vouchers or refunds.
A TUI UK spokesperson said: “We will constantly review holiday cancellations in line with updated travel advice. Customers currently overseas can continue to enjoy their holidays as planned and we will update them directly if there are any changes to their holidays.”
Thomas Cook also said it was calling all customers affected to offer rebookings or refunds.
While Monday’s lockdown announcement will shape emergency timetables, the rail industry is increasingly resigned to seeing long-term cuts, with the decline in demand for commuter services expected to persist past the pandemic – particularly in the south-east, which forms a sizeable majority of UK rail journeys.
Labour said that the government needed to come up with a long-term plan to ensure that rail could recover. Shadow transport secretary, Jim McMahon, said: “The government must ensure that transport services are being run in such a way that the essential workers using them, as well as staff, are kept safe.”
But, he added: “Ministers cannot continue to shift the financial burden onto the taxpayer while guaranteeing private companies’ profits.”
Rail unions demanded an industry-wide approach to manage the risks of the new Covid variant. RMT general secretary Mick Cash said the union’s priority was to protect jobs, capacity and infrastructure: “We have to navigate the next few months whilst looking ahead to the crucial role rail will play in rebuilding our economic strength.”
