The stock markets are a sea of red, amid worries over a third wave of coronavirus infections. EU leaders are meeting virtually to discuss the situation and what they can do to speed up vaccination campaigns. It looks like they will shy away from halting vaccine exports, threatened by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen earlier this week.

The EU should redouble its efforts to produce its own doses of Covid vaccines, as it faces continued issues over supply from pharmaceutical companies, German chancellor Angela Merkel said before the meeting.

The situation is far worse in the world’s poorest countries, where only a fraction of the population (if any) have been vaccinated. They have been warned to expect delays in the delivery of Covid-19 vaccines through the UN-backed Covax programme after a double blow of technical problems at a South Korean manufacturing plant and setbacks in securing export licences from the Indian government, Unicef has said.

In the markets, the FTSE 100 index is down 1%, or 70 points, at 6,642. Germany’s Dax has slid 0.66% while France’s CAC and Italy’s FTSE MiB are 0.5% lower. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones has lost 0.7%, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.3% and the Nasdaq is down 0.4%.

Oil prices have tumbled, as supply concerns over the Suez Canal blockage have given way to worries over lower demand, after the introduction of fresh Covid-19 lockdowns across Europe in recent days. Brent crude is down 3.3% at $62.25 a barrel while US light crude has dropped 3.9% to $58.76. Both have fallen by more than $2.

The CBI’s latest retail sales survey suggested retail sales continued to fall in March, but retailers expect a return to growth next month.

The US economy grew at a higher-than-expected annual rate of 4.3% in the fourth quarter, and jobless claims fell to 736,000 last week.

The Bank of England has unveiled a new £50 note featuring Alan Turing, the scientist best known for his codebreaking work during the Second World War, that will go into circulation on 23 June, the date of his birth.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care – JK

NEWSFLASH: US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 4.3% in the fourth quarter, according to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is up from the previously reported 4.1%. Analysts had expected no revision. In the third quarter, GDP surged by 33.4%.

Jobless claims fell to 736,000 in the week to 20 March from 749,000 in the previous week, which was revised slightly higher, separate figures from the US Labor Department showed.

The UK government is in the midst of a high-stakes review of gambling regulation that could result in significant changes, potentially crimping the industry’s profitability, my colleague Rob Davies writes.

With that in mind, bookmakers and online casinos have been doing their utmost to show that they are taking the prevention of addiction seriously.

Step forward Malta-based online casino company Casumo, which has been fined £6m this morning, one of the largest fines ever dished out by the Gambling Commission, the industry regulator.

Casumo failed to perform anti money laundering and responsible gambling checks on people losing large sums.

One customer lost £1.1m in three years without the company ever performing responsible gambling checks. On another occasion, the company stood by as a customer lost £59,000 in 90 minutes.

This case is significant for three key reasons.

First, many in the industry are resistant to the idea of being forced to perform affordability checks, seeing the idea as intrusive and unnecessary. But how many people can afford to lose £59,000 in an hour and a half?

Second, the review will consider banning gambling sponsorship on football shirts. Casumo sponsor Reading FC.

Third, leading gambling figures have made much of how standards have improved dramatically, with exploitation of addicts largely a thing of the past.

The Casumo case suggests that may be wishful thinking, at best.

Stock markets are pretty sluggish today while the dollar hit a four-month high as appetite for risky assets waned, with Covid infection rates rising across Europe.

The UK’s FTSE 100 is down 0.57% while Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC have both slid 0.2%. US stock market futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street later. The dollar index hit its highest level since November overnight, at 92.697.

Bond yields are falling again, after expectations of higher growth and inflation in the US sent them soaring in recent weeks. The German 10-year government bond yield, or effective interest rate, has hit its lowest level since mid-February, at 0.376%.

Oil prices are also sliding, as the latest round of Covid lockdowns in Europe has revived worries about demand for crude, despite the disruption caused by a huge container ship blocking the Suez Canal. Tug boats are struggling to move the ship. At least 150 other ships are stuck on both sides of the canal.

Brent and US crude both jumped 6% yesterday as the blockage raised supply fears, but are down 1.35% and 1.6% respectively today. Brent crude is trading at $63.55 a barrel while US West Texas intermediate crude is at $60.18 a barrel.

The CBI’s latest retail sales survey is out, and shows the retail sales balance at -45% in March, unchanged from February. The balance deducts retailers who said sales rose compared to a year ago from those who reported a sales decline. Economists had expected a slight improvement to -37%.

However, the outlook is considerably brighter. The retail sales expectations balance for April jumped to +17%, from -62% in March, suggesting retailers expect sales to return to growth next month. This is the first time expectations have been positive since December 2019.

Ben Jones, principal economist at the CBI, said:

Retailers are looking forward to April with a sense of optimism, given the potential re-opening of the sector across the UK. However, it is clear that the potential easing of domestic restrictions next month will not be a panacea for all retailers. Expectations point to a fairly muted recovery, especially when considering that base effects will tend to flatter annual growth next month, given the historic drop in sales in April 2020.

Sales volumes in March fell particularly sharply in sectors such as clothing, footwear, furniture & carpets and for department stores.

The grocery sector – which remains open to customers – reported the biggest year-on-year decline in sales since April 2020. However, the decline was in comparison to a surge in sales in March 2020 as shoppers stocked-up on essential items ahead of the first national lockdown. Despite falling in comparison with last March, grocery sales were seen as good for the time of year this month. Similarly, hardware & DIY stores reported that sales were above seasonal norms.

Here’s an update on the Suez Canal blockage.

Traffic is still suspended while eight tugs work to free the giant container ship that’s stranded in the southern stretch of the canal for a third day. At 400m, the Taiwan-owned Ever Given vessel is almost as long as the Empire State Building is high. It ran aground on Tuesday morning after losing the ability to steer amid high winds and a dust storm.

The eight tugs, the largest of them with a towing power of 160 tons, have been trying to push and pull the Ever Given free of the canal’s banks, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) said in a statement.

More than 150 ships are stuck at each end of the canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean and carries about 10% of global shipping traffic.

Peter Berdowski, CEO of Dutch company Boskalis, which is trying to free the ship, said it was too early to say how long the job might take. He told the Dutch television programme Nieuwsuur:

We can’t exclude it might take weeks, depending on the situation.

He said the ship’s bow and stern had been lifted up against either side of the canal.

It is like an enormous beached whale. It’s an enormous weight on the sand. We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing containers, oil and water from the ship, tug boats and dredging of sand.

Here are today’s other main stories so far:

Nationwide, the UK’s biggest building society, is to tell 13,000 of its staff they can work wherever they want when the coronavirus restrictions are lifted.

Cineworld made a huge $3bn (£2.2bn) loss last year, which reveals the scale of the financial toll that months of cinema closures have brought to the world’s second largest cinema chain.

It announced earlier this week that it would reopen its screens in the US from Good Friday to coincide with the new film releases Godzilla vs Kong and Mortal Kombat, and struck an exclusivity agreement with Warner Bros.

Pubs could be allowed to ditch social distancing rules and allow people to crowd together as long as they check customers’ Covid status on entry, the Guardian understands. Details of the proposed incentive emerged as Boris Johnson told MPs he believed landlords should be able to set the criteria for entering their establishments.

A new £50 note featuring Alan Turing, the scientist best known for his codebreaking work during the second world war, has been unveiled by the Bank of England and will go into circulation on 23 June, the date of his birth.

A formal investigation has been launched into whether David Cameron breached lobbying laws through his work on behalf of Greensill Capital, according to reports.

AstraZeneca has published its most up-to-date vaccine results this morning, saying the vaccine is 76% effective at preventing symptomatic illness, citing a new analysis of results for its major US trial.

• 76% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic Covid-19
• 100% efficacy against severe or critical disease and hospitalisation
• 85% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in participants aged 65 years and over
• No safety concerns were identified

The Anglo-Swedish company, which developed the vaccine with Oxford University, had published similar results on Monday (showing 79% efficacy against symptomatic disease) but released the additional data after a US agency, the independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board, raised questions.

The National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) put out a short statement which suggested AstraZeneca had “included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data”

Let’s hope that the latest results dispel any doubts.

Adam Barker, healthcare analyst at Shore Capital, is calling for more careful communication around vaccines in future, to avoid eroding public trust:

The vague statement from the NIAID may have further eroded trust in AZD1222 and so far, it remains unclear what the major concerns were. The primary analysis is pretty much entirely consistent with the interim analysis (based on the headline data we’ve seen).

Vague statements around vaccines are always going to have a negative impact, simply because there will always be some degree of vaccine scepticism and such statements are good fuel to promote unfounded concerns about life-saving medicines.

As such, we would like to see more careful communication around vaccines moving forward, with statements made once there is compelling evidence to support the assertions being made and when the implications are understood and provided alongside any public comment.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Stock markets had a mixed session yesterday, and reversing earlier declines, European shares closed slightly higher while Wall Street ended in the red, with the Nasdaq down 2% after earlier gains. Asian markets rose mostly, with Japan’s Nikkei up 1.1% and Hong Hong’s Hang Seng flat.

Europe is set for a lower open today, ahead of the European vaccines summit, where EU leaders will decide whether to ban vaccine exports.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:

Tensions between the EU and UK still remain fairly elevated, despite efforts to cool the narrative, while the recent comments from Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal market commissioner, accusing the UK of vaccine nationalism still suggest the potential for a misstep, as feelings continue to run high, particularly on the EU side, where the sense of grievance remains especially elevated.

There is by no means unanimity amongst EU member states about the stance being taken by the EU Commission with the likes of Ireland expressing concern about the damage such actions might do to the EU’s reputation, and that’s even before the damage it might do to the EU’s own attempts to kick start its own faltering vaccination program, at a time when infection rates are rising again sharply.

Sentiment in Europe continues to remain fragile after German chancellor Angela Merkel was forced into a sharp U-turn over her decision to announce a full 5 day lockdown over the Easter period, as the German governments response to their rising crisis shows further signs of coming apart at the seams

Oil prices are tumbling again after sharp rises yesterday, as worries over demand outweighed supply concerns following the blockage in the Suez Canal caused by a large container ship running aground. Brent crude is down 1.2% at $63.61 a barrel while US crude has slid 1.4% to $60.34 a barrel.

A small bulldozer was despatched to dislodge the ship.

A new £50 note featuring Alan Turing, the scientist best known for his codebreaking work during the second world war, has been unveiled by the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. It will go into circulation on 23 June, the date of his birth.

Consumer confidence improved in Germany in early March, when the country’s hard lockdown was eased and infection rates were falling, according to a survey by GfK. Its reading rose to -6.2 for April from -12.1 in March. However, the recent extension of lockdown until 18 April, and rising infections, are expected to dent confidence again.

Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, says:

The hard lockdown will severely damage consumer confidence and the current improvement will remain a flash in the pan. A sustained recovery in consumer confidence will continue to be a long time coming — which means difficult times ahead for retailers and manufacturers.

The Agenda

• 7.45am France business confidence for March
• 8am GMT: European Central Bank General council meeting
• 8am GMT: EU European Council meeting
• 9am GMT: Bank for International Settlements innovation summit: speakers include ECB president Christine Lagarde, UN special envoy for climate action Mark Carney and BIS innovation Hub head Benoît Coeuré
• 11am GMT: France Unemployment benefit claims for February
• 11am GMT: UK CBI retail sales survey for March
• 12.30pm GMT: US GDP final for fourth quarter (forecast: 4.1%)
• 12.30pm GMT: US Initial Jobless claims (forecast: 730,000)