Wall Street futures weren’t quite a perfect guide: rather than anything steep it was pretty flat at the opening bell.

Here are the snaps:

• S&P 500 DOWN 0.63 POINTS, OR 0.02 PERCENT, AT 4,096.54
  
• NASDAQ DOWN 38.18 POINTS, OR 0.28 PERCENT, AT 13,791.13
  
• DOW JONES UP 64.37 POINTS, OR 0.19 PERCENT, AT 33,567.94

Approaching the US open investor sentiment appears to have soured somewhat: futures earlier suggested that Wall Street would gain, but now the S&P 500 is set for a 0.2% decline when it opens in a few minutes.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is due to fall by 0.7%, if futures are any guide, while the Dow Jones industrial average is set to open roughly flat.

Read the full story on the UK’s latest house price record here - all the more remarkable given the existence of a global pandemic:

There is a clear consensus that the government has stoked the fires of the housing market. That has kept homeowners happy but some economists fear it may be storing up difficulties for later.

Here’s Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee and now an adviser at Cambridge Econometrics:

Jeremy Leaf, a London estate agent and former residential chairman of the chartered surveyors’ association, RICS, said the market had been boosted by the measures.

Faster rollout of the vaccine too has helped to encourage more appraisals and instructions but not at a fast enough rate to head off further upward pressure on prices in the traditionally busier spring market.

Lucy Pendleton from the estate agents James Pendleton said policy interventions had “heaped more demand on an already frenzied buying landscape”.

An interesting story from the Financial Times (£) that French wine growers have faced hard frosts that have done severe damage to the grape crop.

The unseasonable weather has forced viticulturists to battle the elements with heaters to try to preserve their vines (see the picture for an example).

The FT reports:

Severe frosts across France this week have badly damaged buds and flowers in vineyards and fruit orchards and will cut grape harvests in some areas by as much as 90 per cent, according to growers and farmers’ organisations.

“It was like winter coming in spring,” said Didier Delagrange, whose family has made wine from grapes grown on the slopes of Volnay in Burgundy for seven generations.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP figures for February on Tuesday. There might not be much to celebrate in those numbers, but things could get better quickly.

The UK economy has “a bit of a spring in its step”, according to Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

February’s GDP decline was probably about 0.5% month-on-month, he estimated, but March and particularly this month could be the start of a snap back. Dales said:

There are mounting signs that the effects on the economy from the third COVID-19 lockdown have started to thaw.

The jump in the IHS Markit/CIPS all-sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from 50.0 in February to a seven-month high of 56.8 in March suggests that a bigger rise in GDP probably took place last month. And in the week to 1 April, spending on credit and debit cards rose to 12% below the pre-pandemic level from 17% below at the start of March.

What’s more, there is some evidence that this increase in activity may be prompting businesses to start hiring again.

The PMI data might be overstating it somewhat, and what the decision to use different vaccines for under-30s is tricky to say, Dales warned. Yet he is sticking with a “relatively optimistic” view that the economy could be back to pre-pandemic levels early next year.

It’s worth taking a look at sterling today. It isn’t a dramatic move today, with the pound losing about 0.1% against the US dollar to reach about $1.3722.

Today the pound came within a whisker of a two-month low, before recovering slightly.

Over the past few weeks it has been a fairly notable move against the dollar.

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, an investment platform, said:

Since hitting an intra-day high above 1.42 at the end of February, cable has been a one-way street since, sliding 4% over the 7 weeks.

Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh and Queen’s husband of 73 years, has died aged 99.

The FTSE 100 has regained a bit of ground this morning: it is now down by about 0.1% at 6,933 points.

Across Europe things have brightened somewhat. The Dax in Germany is in positive territory, despite meagre industrial production data and signs of further movement restrictions ahead. France’s Cac 40 is also ticking along smoothly.

Shares in Jet2 have taken a bit of a tumble this morning. They are now down by 4.4% today, undoing some of the recent gains as investors have looked forward to travel restarting.

As Jet2’s chief executive noted today, there is a lot of uncertainty over what exactly will be allowed and when. Airlines prospects are essentially in the hands of ministers.

Even if flying is allowed, airlines are grumbling that the requirement to be properly tested (with more reliable polymerase chain reaction [PCR] tests) will make it too expensive for families to travel.

James Martin, the British Chambers of Commerce director of policy, gave the government’s plan a very qualified thumbs-up:

This framework provides some welcome clarity however much uncertainty remains around what countries will be on the green list come May 17th. The PCR tests required under the guidelines will also prove costly for many travellers, harming those businesses and supply chains who rely on international travel to trade. The government must redouble their efforts to provide further clarity on the green list as quickly as possible and ensure PCR test are affordable and accessible to all”.

On the broadcast rounds this morning Grant Shapps, the transport minister, said he would work with private companies to cut the costs of tests.

The tests are “too expensive”, Shapps said. However, action to cut the cost before 17 May would have to be brought in very quickly indeed.

Facebook has removed 16,000 groups that traded misleading or fake product reviews after the UK’s competition regulator intervened.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it was the second time it had taken action against the US tech company, after it and eBay, the auction website, agreed in January 2020 to take action against fake reviews.

Andrea Coscelli, chief Executive of the CMA, said:

Never before has online shopping been so important. The pandemic has meant that more and more people are buying online, and millions of us read reviews to enable us to make informed choices when we shop around. That’s why fake and misleading reviews are so damaging – if people lose trust in online reviews, they are less able to shop around with confidence, and will miss out on the best deals. It also means that businesses playing by the rules miss out.

Facebook has a duty to do all it can to stop the trading of such content on its platforms. After we intervened again, the company made significant changes – but it is disappointing it has taken them over a year to fix these issues.

More info on the statement by Jet2’s chief executive, Steve Heapy, via Sky News.

He said the Leeds-headquartered airline, which focuses on serving British holidaymakers with flights to the likes of Alicante, Mallorca and Tenerife, had suspended flights up to 23 June “because of the continued uncertainty that the framework provides”.

He was referring to the UK government’s plans to reopen travel, with confirmation of destinations not expected until early May before a restart on 17 May at the earliest.

Jet2 will automatically cancel and refund affected passengers.

Heapy said:

After several weeks exploring how to restart international travel, with substantial assistance and input from the industry, the framework lacks any rigorous detail about how to get international travel going again. In fact, the framework is virtually the same as six months ago.

Following the publication of the framework today, we still do not know when we can start to fly, where we can fly to and the availability and cost of testing. Rather than answering questions, the framework leaves everyone asking more.

Approaching mid-morning in London the FTSE 100 has lost more momentum: it is now down by 0.3%.

The biggest faller is Glencore, the mining company, down by 2.4%.

Germany’s Dax has dropped 0.2%, after falling industrial production took economists by surprise. However, France’s Cac 40 has edged up by 0.1%.

It remains to be seen if the March price jump was just a result of a rush to get in before the stamp duty cut deadline, but signs that the boom might be fading have disappeared.

Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of Garrington Property Finders, said that “many estate agents are now talking of a boom rather than a bounceback”.

He said the chancellor’s extension of the stamp duty holiday has given a boost to people who were already planning to buy - but adds that in some parts of the country the rapid pace of price growth has already wiped out the advantage of the tax cut. That is a well known phenomenon for stamp duty cuts.

On 19 April the market will receive yet another helping hand in the form of a new mortgage guarantee scheme.

Record prices do raise the question of whether the government really needs to be intervening so actively to sustain prices - even before the consideration of house purchases being out of reach for many.

Guy Harrington, chief executive of residential lender Glenhawk, said:

The continuation of government support measures has only added unnecessary fuel to the fire in stimulating house price growth, regardless of the deep and lengthy recessionary environment that still looms large.

Given that it is unlikely the government will do a U-turn on any of its support policies, the housing market will continue its untenable boom until autumn. How long this will endure once the job support scheme, stamp duty holiday and other stimulus measures end is anyone’s guess.”

There are a lot of things lining up to suggest that house prices will be sustained at or near record highs for a while yet.

Yet it is astonishing that a year after an enormous global economic shock, the average price of the most expensive asset most people buy has risen by 6.5%.

Is it really true that the housing market can emerge essentially unscathed from a recession of this magnitude? Russell Galley from Halifax appears to think not, in the longer term at least:

Overall we expect elevated levels of activity to be maintained in the coming months, with consumer confidence spurred on by the successful vaccine rollout, and buyer demand still fuelled by a desire for larger properties and more outdoor space, as work-life priorities have shifted during the pandemic. A shortage of homes for sale will also support prices in the short term, as lower availability always favours sellers.

However, with the economy yet to feel the full effect of its biggest recession in more than 300 years, we remain cautious about the longer-term outlook. Given current levels of uncertainty and the potential for higher unemployment, we still expect house price growth to slow somewhat by the end of this year.

It looks like economic data out of Germany this morning may be contributing to the glummer mood that appears to have taken hold of European equity markets: industrial production unexpectedly fell in February.

Production fell by 1.6% in February, against economists’ expectations of a gain of about that amount. German production is down by about 6.4% over the year, according to Germany’s federal statistics office.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, an investment bank, said:

February industrial data makes it hard to see how the economy could still escape a contraction in the first quarter.

It would need an explosion of manufacturing and construction activity in March to prevent the German economy from falling into contraction in the first quarter of the year.

The drop in industrial production is somewhat surprising, given strong orders and confidence indicators. Besides some possible and temporary supply chain disruptions, the only other explanation for the disappointing performance can be the harsh winter weather in February.

The FTSE 100 has dipped at the opening bell. It’s down by about 0.1% in the opening few minutes - futures trades in the hour before the open had pointed to gains.

The broad Stoxx 600 index has gained 0.1% across Europe’s biggest companies, while the even more exclusive Stoxx 50 is flat.

France’s Cac 40 is up by 0.1%, while Germany’s Dax has dipped by 0.1%.