UK inflation jumped to 2.1% in May, breaching the Bank of England’s target for the first time in two years and stoking fears that the easing of pandemic restrictions since March will lead to a sustained rise in the cost of living.

The price of fuel was one of the main drivers of May’s increase, soaring by almost 20% from last year to push the rate of inflation up from 1.5% in April.

The increase is ahead of a forecast by City economists of 1.8%, and means the consumer price index has jumped by the most in six months.

On the high street, the cost of clothing, meals and pub and restaurant drinks also helped drive up prices, with online sales of computer games and music downloads a contributing factor, said the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS said the price of clothes rose by almost one percentage point between April and May, though it said the increase was the result of a return to a pre-pandemic pattern of seasonal price rises, in this case for summer dresses, T-shirts and sandals.

Books, which have proved popular during the three lockdowns, rose by 6.1% over the last year, including an 11.9% rise for fiction books, while carpets and other floor coverings increased by 8.3%.

Bicycle prices increased by 13.2% over the past 12 months, which the ONS said could be mostly attributed to a shortage of high-end bikes that factories in China were unable to make and ship to the UK.

Some items that were stockpiled during the lockdowns fell in price in May, including flour and pasta. The cost of pizza and ice-cream prices rose, however, after a rush by consumers to buy food for outside parties and dining.

Petrol and diesel prices soared by 17.9%, pushing the cost of a litre of petrol up from 106p on average in May 2020 to 127p last month.

Some economists have voiced fears that inflation will continue to escalate as consumers spend an estimated £160bn of savings accumulated over the last 16 months. Shortages of raw materials, such as timber, and manufacturing components, including computer chips, could add to pressure to shop prices.

The pattern in the UK is mirrored in the US, where last week inflation during May rose to the highest rate since 2008. It is running at 5%, up from 4.2%.

However, most economists said the recent spikes were likely to be replaced by modest increases over the next few months, before falling back next year as the distorting effects of the pandemic worked their way through the figures.

Nomura said it expected inflation to peak at 3.2% while the economic consultancy Capital Economics said the peak was more likely to be lower, at 2.9%.

Jack Leslie, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation thinktank, said: “Inflation has risen sharply in recent months and will rise further as the impact of higher commodities prices feed through the supply chain. But UK inflationary pressures are different – and nowhere as near as large – as those causing fierce debate in the US.

“Looking ahead, with the medium-term outlook for inflation in the UK still relatively benign, policymakers should look beyond today’s figures and worry far more about rising unemployment than rising inflation.”

The concern is that central bank policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will have little choice but to respond by increasing interest rates to limit the spending spree, with the effect that more firms will go bust and unemployment will grow.

However, Bank of England forecasts show inflation rising above its annual 2% target only briefly over the next year before falling back. The central bank has argued that consumers are likely to spend only a small fraction of their pandemic savings, putting less pressure on prices.

The price of raw materials on global markets has begun to fall, further easing concerns that the current increase in inflation will continue and be sustained into next year.

Wages had also remained subdued, increasing by 3% over the past year, said the ONS, despite the highest vacancy rates on record and a higher rate of unemployment than before the pandemic.

The Bank of England expects inflation to stay below 3% this year and fall back to the 2% target over the next two years.