Graeme Wearden 

UK firms plan investment surge; Virgin Galactic falls on $500m share sale plan – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

The skyline of Canary Wharf in London, as UK CFOs plan to boost spending, hiring and takeovers in the coming months.
The skyline of Canary Wharf in London, as UK CFOs plan to boost spending, hiring and takeovers in the coming months. Photograph: Ian West/PA

Closing post: FTSE lags behind

And finally, the UK’s FTSE 100 index has ended the day behind the rest of Europe.

The Footsie closed 3.5 points higher at 7125, very slightly higher, held back by travel and hospitality stocks.

There wasn’t any sign of a reopening boost, with jet engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce (-5.2%), airline group IAG (-4.2%), Premier Inn owner Whitbread (-3.1%), catering group Compass (-2.5%) and InterContinental Hotels (-2.3%) in the fallers column.

Among smaller companies, Cineworld (-5.8%), JD Wetherspoon (-4.8%), Restaurant Group (-4.1%) and easyJet (-3.6%) all kept a lid on the FTSE 250 index, which ended flat.

The government’s more cautious approach to ending restrictions dampened hopes of a ‘freedom day’ surge in activity, with businesses and large events encouraged to use certification in high risk settings, and expecting people to cover their faces in crowded indoor areas such as public transport and shop,

European stocks had a brighter day, with the Stoxx 600 at a record high despite worries about the delta variant. Stocks may have got a lift from the prospect of the European Central bank extending its stimulus programme for longer.

Italy’s FTSE MIB led the way, up 0.9% (giving Milan traders something else to smile about after the football), with Germany’s DAX up 0.65% and France’s CAC up 0.5%.

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, sums up the day:

“UK markets were as miserable as the weather for most of the day. With no victory parade to look forward to and the prime minister’s tone at least expected to dilute “Freedom Day” aspirations, London markets simply slumped. Nothing quite as seismic as Thursday’s falls, the mood seemed more resigned, an acknowledgement that companies will have to live with COVID and the difficulties that brings. Staff shortages, reconfigured offices and zoom meetings will remain fixtures of UK working life for the foreseeable future, even if politicians are trying to persuade more people to get back to offices. The travel, retail and hospitality sectors are all represented on today’s list of FTSE 100 fallers.

“It’s not just in the UK investors are jittery. The oil price has been squeezed as questions are once again being raised about exactly how much demand will bounce back before the end of the year and which economies are expected to take another battering. Wall Street started with a familiar shuffle. Tech stocks up, value plays down but perhaps the scent of another mega earnings bonanza has lifted the mood, with banks among those leading the charge.

“A pandemic era box office bonanza for Marvel’s Black Widow put a spring in Disney’s step today, though it hasn’t quite translated to gains for cinemas; both AMC (NYSE) and Cineworld (LON) saw shares sink. It’s useful to note the movie was given simultaneous release in theatres and on Disney’s streaming platform. And the story might well make its own blockbuster, but Richard Branson’s space odyssey came back to earth with a bump as the company announced a whip round. Virgin Galactic said the fundraising is to enable more successful space flights and the timing of the announcement was carefully managed to take full advantage of the excitement generated by the launch and safe return. Shares in the company, which had experienced their own lift off, fell flat after the upcoming placing was announced.”

That’s all for today. Here’s the main stories:

Goodnight. GW

Updated

Ryanair is planning for life after the pandemic, by aiming to recruit another 2,000 pilots over the next three years.

The recruitment drive will help rebuild the airline’s passenger numbers after the Covid-19 pandemic as it takes delivery of more than 200 Boeing 737 Max aircraft.

The airline received its first 737 Max planes from Seattle last month and plans to take delivery of more than 50 this summer to start ramping up schedules next year.

Ryanair has dubbed the Boeing plane its “gamechanger” because of the greater fuel efficiency and seat capacity of the new model, compared with its existing 737 fleet....

TikTok has opened its first pop-up venue in the UK, allowing fans to interact with influencers who have found success via the social media app and try to create their own mini-films.

The app, which allows users to create and share short videos soundtracked with music, has partnered with the Westfield shopping centre in west London to create the first TikTok For You House. The design of the pop-up venue, which will be open until 8 August, is inspired by TikTok’s homepage, which highlights trending clips.

Large indoor venues in England will be urged to check the Covid status of their customers on entry this summer, while prevalence of the virus is high, the health secretary, Sajid Javid, has announced.

Speaking to MPs, the health secretary confirmed the government’s plan on 19 July to lift almost all the remaining legal restrictions put in place during the pandemic, including those covering mask-wearing and the size of social gatherings.

But his tone was noticeably more downbeat than a week ago, when he told MPs, “freedom is in our sights once again”.

The vaccine certification plan, in which venues will be “supported and encouraged” by government to use the NHS app to check up on their customers, was the most concrete sign of a change of tack....

Back in Europe, the Stoxx 600 index has hit a new record high, now up 0.7% today.

The rally comes after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde indicated yesterday that the ECB will change its guidance on the next policy steps at its next meeting to reflect its new strategy and show it is serious about reviving inflation.

Lagarde told Bloomberg that:

“Given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, forward guidance will certainly be revisited....

“My sense is that we will continue to be determined by maintaining favourable financing conditions in our economy.”

Last week, the ECB announced it would lift its inflation target to 2% (from below, but close to 2%).

Lagarde said the next Governing Council session, in July, will now have “some interesting variations and changes”, hinting that the eurozone central bank could extend its pledge to stimulate the economy.

“It’s going to be an important meeting.

“Given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, forward guidance will certainly be revisited.”

Virgin Galactic shares fall 14% after $500m stock sale plan

A day after Sir Richard Branson flew to the edge of space and back, shares in Virgin Galactic have also fallen, with rather more of a bump.

Virgin Galactic have dropped by 14% in early trading, after the company revealed plans to sell up to $500m of shares to raise funds, less than 24 hours after completing its first fully crewed test flight into space.

In an filing, the company disclosed it has entered into a distribution agency agreement with Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to sell up to $500m of shares.

Virgin Galactic says it intends to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including: working capital, general and administrative matters and capital expenditures for its manufacturing capabilities, development of its spaceship fleet and other infrastructure improvements.

Virgin Galactic’s stock had been around 8% higher in pre-market trading, on excitement after Branson’s successful test flight.

The trip was seen as an important milestone in the commercial space race that will help the company achieve its goal of launching a commercial service next year.

But this share issue will dilute existing shareholders, so is pushing the stock down.

...while the Nasdaq Composite index has hit a new record high - it’s up 37 points or 0.25% at 14,739.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average has opened a little lower, down 76 points or 0.2% at 34,793 points....

Back in the City, the FTSE 100 has shaken off some of its earlier losses - now down 0.3% or 19 points at 7102.

Travel stocks, miners and hospitality stocks are still the main fallers, though, reflecting some growth worries, with Rolls-Royce and IAG down around 3%, Antofagasta off 2.5%, and hotel group Whitbread 2.3% lower.

North Wales and Cumbria are the most popular destinations for Britons looking to holiday in the UK this summer, overtaking the coastal and rural charms of Devon and Cornwall for the first time.

Almost two-thirds (62%) of British people intend to spend their main summer break in the UK this year, up from 50% in 2019, according to an annual poll by Sykes Holiday Cottages.

It also found that the average person in the UK will take two domestic holidays in 2021 as uncertainty over coronavirus travel restrictions causes more people to decide to holiday closer to home.

North Yorkshire, the Yorkshire Dales and the Peak District have also secured their place in the top 10 most popular regions for UK summer holidays, followed by south Wales, East Anglia and Dorset....

Reuters: Yellen urges EU to back global tax deal, keep fiscal support

Over in Brussels, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has EU countries to sign on to a global deal to revamp corporate taxation, keep fiscal support through 2022 and consider more spending in the face of COVID-19 uncertainty, Reuters reports.

“We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery to Eurogroup finance ministers.

“We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share.”

The race to the bottom must end, she said.

Irish finance minister Paschal Donohoe, who chairs the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, maintained his reservation about a global minimum corporate tax rate in a meeting with Yellen, his spokesperson said.

The European Commission said on Monday that it will delay its own planned levy on digital services to focus on the global tax deal, final details of which have to be agreed in October.

The EU has been under pressure from the U.S. administration, which wants existing national digital service taxes to be repealed as part of the global overhaul of cross-border corporate taxation.

Yellen said that the fiscal response of the EU and its members to the COVID-19 pandemic had been “decisive and unprecedented”, with a rapid response also from the European Central Bank.

“I think we all agree that uncertainty remains high. In this context, it is important that the fiscal stance remain supportive through 2022,” she said.

She added that EU member states should also “seriously consider” additional fiscal measures to ensure a robust domestic and global recovery.

OECD: Recovery picks up pace in leading economies

The growth-cycle outlook is steadily increasing for the world’s leading economies as vaccination progress allows lockdown measures to be gradually lifted, according to the OECD.

The Paris-based thinktank says its Composite leading indicators (CLIs), which track turning points in economic activity, continue to expand steadily in the OECD area as a whole, a sign that the recovery is continuing.

Among major OECD economies, the CLIs remain above trend and continue to expand at a steady pace in the United States, Japan and Canada as well as in the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy. The CLI for the United Kingdom is still expanding and has now reached above trend levels. In France, the CLI continues to grow steadily but remains below trend.

Some large emerging-market economies are also picking up, the OECD adds:

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for Russia and China (industrial sector) point to steady increase. In India, the CLI now indicates stable growth whereas it continues to signal slowing growth in Brazil.

The online fashion retailer Asos has struck a deal with the US department store chain Nordstrom that will put Topshop clothing back in brick and mortar stores.

Nordstrom is taking a minority stake in the Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and activewear HIIT brands – which Asos bought in March after the collapse of Sir Philip Green’s Arcadia empire – for an undisclosed sum, as part of a joint venture announced on Monday.

Nordstrom will sell the brands on its websites and in its 350 stores. It will also allow shoppers to collect and send back Asos products at its stores.

Asos chief executive, Nick Beighton, says:

“Partnering with Nordstrom will support our US strategy, allowing us to offer that to even more 20-somethings in North America.”

More here:

Sweden’s central bankers are aware that the Covid-19 pandemic is not over, despite the recovery in the global economy.

The minutes of the Riksbank executive board’s latest meeting, released this morning, flag up the risks posed by new variants (such as Delta):

The pandemic’s grip on the global economy has eased during the spring and early summer, and the recovery is well under way. More and more people have been vaccinated against COVID-19, the spread of infection has decreased and restrictions have begun to be phased out. But the members stressed that the pandemic is not over yet.

The recovery is proceeding at a different pace in different parts of the world and there are new variants of the virus that are causing uncertainty with the risk of setbacks.

At the meeting, late last month, the Riksbank left interest rates on at zero, and signalled they expect to remain there for the next three years.

The minutes show the Riksbank is prepared for inflation to run over its 2% target, noting it has been below target for ‘quite some time’:

The members noted that the economic outlook and inflation prospects look brighter. At the same time, they pointed out that inflation is being affected by large variations in energy prices as well as measurement problems and other effects that are deemed to be temporary. It is expected to take some time before inflation is close to 2 per cent more persistently.

Several members noted that inflation is expected to be somewhat above the inflation target at the end of the forecast period, but considered that this is not an argument for making monetary policy less expansionary at present.

They stressed the importance of anchored inflation expectations in line with the inflation target and bearing in mind that inflation on average has undershot the target for quite some time, inflation temporarily above 2 per cent could contribute to this.

Anxiety over rising Covid-19 cases is weighing on the markets today, says analyst Raffi Boyadjian of XM:

It’s pushed the US dollar up, while oil and equities are struggling.

Risk assets were struggling on Monday as signs that virus infections have started to creep higher globally put a dent in the improvement in sentiment that took hold from the middle of last week.

The US dollar ended its two-day slide to edge back up even as Treasury yields reversed lower again, underlining the recent breakdown of that relationship. The greenback typically tracks the moves in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield but the positive correlation has switched into a negative one since late June when growth and virus jitters first resurfaced.

The highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 is running rampant in more and more countries, casting doubt on hopes that vaccines will bring about a complete reopening of economies. The worrying trend comes just as many central banks have started to or are thinking about pulling back some of their emergency stimulus.

There was some relief last week, however, when the Federal Reserve toned down some of its more hawkish rhetoric, signalling that a decision on tapering could still be months away. The market mood also got a lift from Chinese policymakers when they cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks, unleashing $154 billion of cash into the economy, alleviating some of the impact from a recent tightening of credit conditions in China.

Center Parcs announces plans for sixth UK holiday village

The UK may be getting its 6th Centre Parc.

Center Parcs has picked a site for another of its family-friendly UK holiday villages, at Oldhouse Warren, in Mid Sussex, near Worth, Crawley (so between London and Brighton).

It has secured an option to buy 553 acres of private woodland at the site, and hopes to submit a planning application next year once surveys and pre-planning works are carried out.

The development is expected to cost between £350m and £400m and will create around 1,500 permanent local jobs once operational, as well as around 1,000 jobs during construction, says the company.

The plan, like at other Centre Parks, is to have lodges for visitors built through the woodland, plus indoor and outdoor leisure facilities (which can include golf, archery, aerial tree trecking, quad biking, craft activities or walks, for example), plus shops and restaurants, a “Subtropical Swimming Paradise” and a spa.

Center Parcs’ CEO, Martin Dalby, says:

“It is really exciting to have identified a potential site for another Center Parcs village in the UK. The proposal we will be submitting will create a significant number of jobs and bring major benefits to the local and national economy.

“Today’s announcement marks the first step of a long journey and there is still a huge amount of work to be done before we can submit a planning application. As a business, we take our responsibility to the local community extremely seriously and look forward to sharing our plans as they progress.”

FTSE 100 falls amid global growth worries

The London stock market is still lagging the rest of Europe this morning, dragged down by miners, travel companies, banks and energy stocks.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 is down 0.6%, while the smaller, more UK-focused FTSE 250 has slipped 0.3% (with cinema chain Cineworld the top faller, down 4.5%)

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, says concerns over the strength of the global economy are weighing on internationally-focused stocks like banks, miners and oil producers, who are “bellwethers for the state of the economy”.

Oil has dipped this morning, with Brent crude down around 1.3% at $74.50 per barrel - which also indicates some growth jitters.

France’s CAC index is also lower (-0.35%), while Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB have dipped slightly into the red.

But with company bosses expressing optimism over future prospects, the reopening recovery could continue.

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, predicts volatility:

“Investors should stay positioned for the global economic reopening. We prefer sectors that will benefit from reopening and recovery, such as energy and financials.

Volatility is likely to persist as negative headlines continue. So, we believe investors also need to consider how to stay protected against downside risks.”

Updated

Rothermere readies £810m bid to take Daily Mail owner private

Lord Rothermere is considering taking the Daily Mail private in a deal that could value the newspaper group at £810m.

The Rothermere family has put forward a potential offer that would involve buying about 70% of the Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT) group that it does not already own. The move would give Rothermere, who is also chairman of the group, full control of DMGT and take the company off the stock exchange.

In a stock market announcement on Monday, the group said Rothermere’s Bermuda-registered holding company Rothermere Continuation Ltd (RCL) was considering a bid of 251p a share, valuing the group at about £810m.

RCL already has a 30% stake in the group – which also owns the Metro and i newspaper titles – and holds all of the vote-bearing shares in DMGT’s two-tier stock structure. It means that the deal is not at risk of facing opposition if a deal is put to a shareholder vote.

However, the publisher of the Daily Mail said that a potential offer was contingent on a number of factors, including a planned sale of DMGT’s insurance risk business, and the sale of its stake in online car retailer Cazoo, which was valued at $7bn (£5bn) after being snapped up by a special purpose acquisition company (Spac) in March. It is also seeking assurances that the group’s pension schemes will not be affected by the takeover.

Here’s the full story:

Heathrow Airport is urging the government to relax travel restrictions on double-vaccinated European Union and US nationals at the end of this month.

Britain’s largest airport reported this morning that passenger numbers last month were still nearly 90% down on pre-pandemic levels seen in June 2019, and much lower than EU rivals.

Although terminal passenger numbers did rise to 957,000 in June, from 675,000 in May, they are still down around three-quarters so far this year.

Heathrow says the closure of Britain’s transatlantic links is costing the UK economy at least £23m per day:

Passenger traffic from Heathrow to the US is down by around 80%, whereas in the EU, which has reopened unilaterally with the US has seen traffic recover to only around 40% down. Britain’s long held competitive advantage on transatlantic trade is at risk if borders remain closed.

Heathrow said the restrictions on passengers are hurting exports too (as most air cargo travels in the hold of passenger planes). Both Schiphol and Frankfurt have surpassed their pre-pandemic cargo volumes, growing by 14% and 9% compared to 2019, whereas cargo tonnage at Heathrow is still down 16%.

It welcomes the decision to lift quarantine restrictions on double-vaccinated UK residents returning from amber list countries from 19th July. But it says the government must reopen travel to fully vaccinated people from more countries, particularly key trading partners like the US.

Heathrow is testing a pilot scheme under which fully-vaccinated passengers arriving on British Airways and Virgin Atlantic flights from selected destinations in Europe, the US and the Caribbean are fast-tracked, to show that 100% vaccination status can be carried out at check in.

It argues “there is no reason why Government should not approve this for passengers from the US and EU from the 31st of July.”

Heathrow CEO, John Holland-Kaye said:

“While it’s fantastic news that some double-vaccinated passengers will no longer need to quarantine from amber countries, Ministers need to extend this policy to US and EU nationals if they want to kickstart the economic recovery.

These changes will be critical for exporters who are losing out to EU rivals and families who have been separated from loved ones. We have all the tools to safely restart international travel, and now is the time for Global Britain to take off!”

UK wealth gap widens in pandemic as richest get £50,000 windfall

Britain’s wealth gap has ballooned during the pandemic with the richest 10% gaining £50,000 on average, dwarfing increases for the poorest third of the population, according to a thinktank report.

The Resolution Foundation said wealth had increased during lockdown as a result of a lack of spending opportunities and rising house prices, but the benefits had been skewed to the richest by a ratio of more than 500 to 1.

Jack Leslie, a senior economist at the thinktank, said it was rare for wealth to increase during a recession but the impact of events during 2020 and 2021 had been to “turbo-charge” the gap between rich and poor.

The Resolution Foundation – which focuses on improving living standards for those on low and middle incomes – said the findings of the report should cause the government to rethink its decision to scrap the £20 a week increase to universal credit in September.

Wealth across UK families

Here’s the full story:

Car insurance group Admiral is sailing high, after lifting profit forecasts after a drop in car accident claims in the pandemic.

Admiral, who are up 3% this morning, told shareholders it expects a higher than expected group profit before tax for the first half of 2021.

It has benefitted from lower-than-expected insurance claims due to the extended lockdown, and fewer historic injury claims than expected:

The stronger result is due to unusually positive development in the cost of UK motor bodily injury claims from a number of prior underwriting years which has led to higher reserve releases and profit commission revenue.”

This means a bumper payment to shareholders. Admiral now expects to pay a interim dividend of between 110 to 125 pence per share for 2021, up from 55p (plus a 15.5p special dividend) a year ago.

It’s also planning to return £400m to shareholders in special dividends over the next two years, after completing the sale of its Penguin Portals unit in April.

The London stock market has dipped at the start of the new week.

The FTSE 100 blue-chip index has dropped by 32 points, or 0.45%, to around 7089 points.

Travel firms are leading the fallers, with British Airways parent company IAG down 2.6%, and jet engine maker and servicer Rolls-Royce falling 3.5%.

Financial stocks such as Barclays (-1.7%), miners including Antofagasta (-1.9%) and hospitality firms including caterer Compass (-1%) are also lower.

European markets are also subdued, with the Stoxx 600 up just 0.1%.

Introduction: UK corporates rush to invest, high, and acquire as economy reopens

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

With business confidence rising, UK companies are gearing up for a boom in investment and job creation, and eyeing up potential deals too.

After more than a year of cost cutting and fire-fighting the pandemic, firms are now focusing on post-lockdown investment plans, according to accountancy firm Deloitte.

Deloitte’s latest poll of financial chiefs at UK companies found they are the most aggressive about acquisitions in 11 years, as they look to expand quickly.

Over 70% of CFOs expect to boost capital expenditure and hiring over the year ahead – the highest level in almost seven years, which could help give Britain’s productivity a boost.

Richard Houston, senior partner and CEO at Deloitte, explains:

“We’ve seen a huge shift from the uncertainty caused by the pandemic to an appetite for acquisitions, investment and hiring. With the majority of finance leaders expecting a return to at least pre-pandemic levels of demand, the focus is now on innovating and creating new products and services.

“The businesses that have successfully navigated this pandemic have been able to adapt quickly. Investing in digital technologies will be key to business agility and creating sustainable growth.”

The survey, conducted in the second half of June, found that:

  • CFOs rate growth as their top priority, with expectations for an increase in hiring and investment at their highest levels in almost seven years
  • Finance leaders are placing greater emphasis on acquisitions now than at any time in the last 11 years
  • Over half (57%) have either reported a full recovery in demand for their businesses, or expect to do so by the end of the year, with 41% reporting that demand for their businesses has already returned to pre-pandemic levels

With interest rates at record lows, demand expected to rise, and the government’s ‘super-deduction’ tax incentive on offer, nearly 90% of CFOs expect to increase investment in digital technology. Four-fifths predicting gains in business performance and productivity.

Firms are now focusing on ‘expansionary strategies’, with more than three-quarters reporting a rise in recruitment difficulties or skills shortages over the last three months.

Covid-19 was still the top concern, followed by inflation and climate change, with Brexit dropping down the list.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, says the relaxation of lockdown is allowing firms to focus on the recovery.

“With the economy reopening, CFOs’ perceptions of external uncertainty have dropped below the average of the last five years and businesses have tacked away from the defensive strategies that helped them through the downturn.

“The pandemic, like all major shocks, will reshape the economy and we are likely to see years of normal growth compressed into just a few months. Indeed, eight in ten CFOs believe that productivity will run higher in the wake of the pandemic. That offers the hope of a more comprehensive recovery than after the global financial crisis.”

A separate survey from accountancy and business advisory firm BDO has found that firms were their most optimistic since 2005 in June, with manufacturers benefitting from “an improved global economic outlook, as the effects of the vaccine rollout begin to be felt by economies across the globe”.

And the latest Accenture / Markit UK Business Outlook shows that hiring intentions among businesses has improved to a record high, with firms also boosting their capital expenditure and R&D plans:

We’ll be tracking all the developments through the day....

The agenda

  • 8.30am BST: Sweden central bank’s monetary policy meeting minutes
  • 1pm BST: India industrial production for May
  • 4pm BST: US consumer inflation expectations for June
 

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