Are there any more Ohio-based aerospace and defence companies planning to bid for Meggitt of Coventry? The tally is now two, with Cleveland-based TransDigm pitching interest at 900p a share, which would beat the 800p-a-pop, or £6.3bn, last week from local rival Parker Hannifin.
But would it beat it on non-financial measures? The key point about Parker’s offer was that it arrived with a few “legally binding commitments to HM government”, covering jobs and investment in the UK. Those pledges were far too airy, as argued here last week, because most expired after 12 months, but at least they provided a basis for negotiation with the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng.
TransDigm has yet to turn its proposal into an offer, but any bid that falls short of Parker’s bare-minimum undertakings should be ruled off-side immediately. Meggitt’s board seems to have grasped the point, as it should. Less encouraging is the fact that TransDigm decorates its website with boasts about its “private equity-like capital structure and culture”. On the face of it, control by an over-leveraged wannabe private equity crew does not sound the best outcome for Meggitt.
In the meantime, the other moral of the tale is the shocking under-appreciation by the UK public markets of Meggitt’s long-term strengths in brakes, sensors, valves and other kit for commercial and military aircraft. As recently as July, the share price dipped below 400p. Now there’s a firm bid at twice the price and a possible one even higher. The fund managers, or most of them, were asleep. Kwarteng must not be.
The CMA was right to back Ofwat
Ofwat, the water regulator, received a soaking earlier this year when four companies appealed against their latest price regime and got most of what they wanted. By contrast, Ofgem, in charge of energy, has won – not on every count, but on the ones that matter most, including cost of equity. It’s important that it did. For the sake of basic credibility, the UK’s entire system of independent regulation of monopoly utilities needed a lift.
The backdrop to this dispute was dramatic warnings from some power companies about energy blackouts if Ofgem would not budge on its latest five-year price regime. In the event, the regulator was slightly more generous when it came to the crunch last December, but the likes of National Grid, SSE and Cadent still appealed to the Competition and Markets Authority.
The CMA’s backing for Ofgem therefore amounts to an endorsement of the regulator’s analysis that the green energy transition, as it applies to power distribution and transmission companies, can be funded with little change to customers’ bills. More investment will be required but the companies will have to chase lower – but, critically, still economically worthwhile – returns.
The modelling is complex, but there are at least two reasons to think Ofgem was right and the companies were pushing their luck. First, National Grid splashed £7.8bn in March on buying Western Power Distribution, which supplies almost 8 million customers in the UK, suggesting its faith in the UK regulatory set-up is fundamentally strong.
Second, investors can clearly live with a tighter price regime. National Grid’s shares were down a minuscule 0.4% after Ofgem’s victory and SSE’s were up slightly. Let the corporate grumbling cease.
Deliveroo yet to produce the main course
Nice revenues, Deliveroo, any idea of when you might make a profit? Of course not. The delivery outfit doubled its orders in the first half of 2021, but even a surge of that size wasn’t enough to turn one main yardstick of financial performance positive. The pre-tax loss was £105m.
None of which came as a surprise. Deliveroo has flagged from the off that it is in investment mode during the industry’s land-grab stage. The game is about signing up more restaurants and customers and turning the side-dish of rapid grocery deliveries into something substantial.
On all those scores, Deliveroo has done what it said, which has improved the mood since March’s shambolic IPO, even if the 341p share price is still embarrassingly short of the 390p listing price. Delivery Hero has also taken a 5% stake, providing a third-party endorsement of sorts.
Yet the only certainty is that the wait for profits will be long. Citigroup’s analysts forecast that Deliveroo will make a pre-tax loss of £38m in 2023, by which point revenues are expected to have reached the almighty level of £2.6bn.
The company has £1.6bn in the bank after the IPO, so has enough cash to keep investing to find out what returns can eventually be generated from the “hyperlocal” delivery game. From outside, they currently look hyper-unclear.