Boris Johnson’s government has made a dramatic U-turn in an attempt to save Christmas – with a raft of extended emergency visas to help abate labour shortages that have led to empty shelves and petrol station queues, Rajeev Syal writes.

New immigration measures will allow 300 fuel drivers to arrive immediately and stay until the end of March, while 100 army drivers will take to the roads from Monday, the government announced late on Friday.

About 4,700 further food haulage drivers will arrive from late October and leave by the end of February.

The rules mean that the government has relented to lobbying from the fuel and food industries and extended some temporary visa schemes beyond Christmas Eve and into the new year.

The move, designed to tackle chronic disruption to supply chains, is a major change in policy after ministers previously insisted they would not relax immigration rules in response to the crisis.

It comes as Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, demanded that parliament should be recalled to sort out the fuel and food shortages.

Almost 200 military personnel, including 100 drivers, will be deployed from Monday to provide temporary support as part of the government’s wider action to further relieve pressure on petrol stations and address the shortage of HGV drivers.

Here’s the full story:

And here’s how some of the other papers are reporting it too:

Time to recap.

Here’s all today’s stories on the supply chain crisis:

And in other news...

Goodnight. GW

Britain’s soaring energy prices, fuel shortages and problems in the food industry all add to an EFFing pain for consumers and businesses.

According to James Forsyth of The Times today, even those in government are calling it the ‘EFFing crisis’.

And it will dampen the mood at the Conservative party conference, he writes:

It is hard to be celebratory (and would be politically foolish to be so) with motorists struggling to fill up their cars. Even if the government doesn’t appear — yet — to be paying a political price for the crisis, it is no time for back-slapping.

Ministers are acutely aware that even if petrol queues ease in the coming days, the autumn will be full of such difficulties. What is known in government as the EFFing crisis — energy, fuel and food — will be a theme of the next few months. Even cabinet optimists think the shortage of lorry drivers will produce flare-ups over the coming months as supply chains come under pressure.

The Daily Mail have seized on the term too, saying tonight that:

The ‘EFFing crisis’: Ministers are bracing for months of energy chaos, fuel shortages and empty food shelves as they admit motorists face weeks of queues at filling stations which are running out of petrol faster than they can be resupplied

In the City, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 59 points or 0.85% at 7027 points, its lowest close in over a week.

Travel and hospitality companies led the risers, such as airline group IAG (+5.3%), and hotel groups InterContinental (+3.5%) and Whitbread (+2.7%).

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, points out that energy companies had a strong week, with crude oil hitting three-year highs on Tuesday.

“Having spent an hour enjoying the charms of nearby petrol stations it doesn’t surprise me at all to see that that week’s big winner on the FTSE 100 was Royal Dutch Shell and BP’s not done too shabbily either. To be fair the third forecourt I drove onto was fully supplied and disconcertingly queue free so perhaps the situation really is improving but that’s little comfort to anyone still struggling to fill up.

Focussing on today and it does seem there has been a fair bit of bargain hunting going but even a boost to the travel industry from Australia’s border relaxation hasn’t been able to pull markets out of the red.

European markets also began October on the back foot, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.4%.

Farmers have warned that up to 120,000 pigs face being culled because of a lack of abattoir workers, as acute labour shortages across supply chains continue to wreak havoc on the UK economy.

Rob Mutimer, the chair of the National Pig Association (NPA), said Britain was facing an “acute welfare disaster” within a matter of weeks, with farmers forced to kill their livestock because of an acute shortage of butchers and slaughterers.

“We are within a couple of weeks of having to consider a mass cull of animals in this country,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday.

“We think our backlog is in the region of 100,000 to 120,000 as we stand today. And it is growing by around 12,000 a week. This is happening on pig farms all over the country; they are backed up and running out of space to keep animals.”

One farmer said they were being told to expect further reductions next week in the number of animals able to be transported, as there were not enough workers at meat-processing plants to handle the loads.

“The problem in the industry has got considerably worse over the last three weeks,” said Mutimer.

“[A cull] involves either shooting them on the farm or taking them to an abattoir and disposing of them in a skip. These animals won’t go into the food chain, they will either be rendered or sent for incineration. It is an absolute travesty.”

Just in: Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has temporarily exempted parts of the UK’s carbon dioxide industry from competition law.

The Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy has announced that the move will help provide “further security of carbon dioxide supplies” to UK businesses, after the UK ran short of CO₂ last month.

Companies in the UK CO₂ industry will be granted a short exemption from the Competition Act 1998, to help them share information and optimise supply.

The move will make it easier for the industry to avoid disruption to supplies and prioritise the delivery of CO₂– an essential component of the national economy – to parts of the country and industries that need it most, such as the food sector, BEIS says.

It will also allow companies to discuss specifics of purchasing and pricing, as the government aims to reach a long-term market-based solution with producers over the next two weeks.

Last week, the government reached a deal with US firm CF Industries to restart carbon dioxide (CO₂) production at its fertiliser plant in Billingham, Teesside, after it halted work due to soaring natural gas prices.

CO₂ is widely used in the food industry for packaging, and for the slaughter of animals at abattoirs, as well as in other industrial operations. Ministers had been warned that CO₂ shortages could effectively bring production to a halt throughout the supply chain, leading to empty shelves.

BEIS says today that CF Fertilisers’ plant in Billingham is now operating at full capacity and shipping CO₂ to UK businesses, following the deal with the UK.

Also, major commercial CO₂ producer Ensus has reopened its Wilton plant following temporary closure for planned maintenance, further securing supplies. The Wilton plant can produce up to 40% of the UK’s CO₂ requirements, BEIS says.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng says discussions with industry to deliver a long-term solution have made good progress.

Companies in the CO₂ industry can now work together to ensure that key sectors receive the supplies they need and come to a sustainable market solution.

Coupled with Ensus resuming production and CF Fertilisers ramping up operations, we are helping to make this critical industry stronger and more resilient.

Last Sunday, the government suspended competition law for the fuel industry, to help oil firms to target deliveries at petrol stations, after the surge in panic buying.

The petrol shortages have left some voters in the once true-blue Hampshire seat of Winchester questioning the government’s handling of the crisis.

My colleague Rupert Neate reports:

Helen Nott is angry, and her wrath is directed at one man: Boris Johnson.

“I am angry, I can control it, but I am really very angry,” she says as she walks to the shops on Winchester high street with her mother, a pensioner.

“I’m actually really glad you stopped me to talk about it, otherwise I would just have been bending my mother’s ear about it all day.”

Nott, a teacher, is primarily angry about the fuel crisis, which has led her to leave her car at home all week and walk more than she would like. However, she says the tanker driver shortage is “just the latest in a long line of crises that [the government] expect us to bumble through”.

“All of this could have been avoided with a bit of strategic thinking,” she says.

“But it feels like there’s no one in charge, no one that knows what’s going on. Boris thinks he’s in charge, and I think that’s the problem.”

Here’s the full piece:

When the letter from the UK government dropped through Antony Crowther’s letter box this week, the frustration that had been building for months turned to rage, my colleague Steven Morris writes.

Signed by the transport minister Charlotte Vere, the letter told him his “valuable skills and experience” as a HGV driver had never been more needed. Would he please consider getting behind the wheel again?

That is exactly what Crowther wants to do but can’t because his application to get his licence back after a medical emergency is snarled up in a backlog at the DVLA – the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency – in Swansea, south Wales.

“I’ve spent so many hours trying to get through to the DVLA and the transport department to sort my licence out,” said Crowther, 61, from Plymouth.

“I want to do my bit and help out. Yes, the money comes in useful but it’s not just about that. I like to feel I’m helping by getting stuff moving around the country.”

As the scale of the crisis at the DVLA emerged this week, a row has broken out over who is to blame. Workers and their union representatives claim mismanagement during the Covid pandemic at the DVLA has led to the problems. The government and the DVLA blame staff who have been on strike over their working conditions.

It could get worse. Covid cases continue to blight the DVLA, an executive agency of the Department for Transport (DfT), and more industrial action may be on the way this autumn and winter.....

Here’s the full story:

JD Wetherspoon said it was struggling to find staff in some parts of England as the pub chain counts the cost of the coronavirus pandemic, reporting a record loss of almost £200m.

The founder and chairman, Tim Martin, said overall the pub chain had received a “reasonable number” of applications for vacancies, with employee numbers rising by 3,000 to 42,000 between the end of Wetherspoon’s financial year on 25 July and 20 September.

However, it has struggled to find staff in some areas, such as holiday hotspots.

Martin said:

“Some areas of the country, especially ‘staycation’ areas in the West Country and elsewhere, have found it hard to attract staff,”

Martin also criticised the various lockdown rules introduced in the pandemic:

“Pubs have been at the forefront of business closures during the pandemic, at great cost to the industry – but at even greater cost to the Treasury,”

“In the last year, the country moved, in succession, from lockdown, to ‘eat out to help out’, to curfews, to firebreaks, to pints with a substantial meal only, to different tier systems and to further lockdowns. Pub management teams, and indeed the entire hospitality industry, had an almost impossible burden in trying to communicate often conflicting and arbitrary rules to customers.”

Here’s the full story:

Petrol retailers have warned that the fuel crisis is improving “far too slowly”, and that they are not receiving enough fuel to meet demand and clear the queues.

The Petrol Retail Association reports that 26% of its members’ petrol stations are still dry today. That is barely any improvement on Thursday, when 27% were out of fuel.

Just 47% of forecourts have both petrol and diesel in stock - which is worse than yesterday, when 52% had both grades on offer.

That leaves 27% of forecourts only offering either petrol or diesel, up from 21% yesterday.

The PRA represents independent retailers, who account for about two-thirds of the UK’s 8,380 UK filling stations.

Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, says independent petrol stations are not receiving enough fuel compared to supermarkets.

Until that is fixed, motorists will continue to suffer long queues, he warns -- another signal that the crisis is going to continue.....

Balmer says:

“Whilst the situation is similar to recent days, there are signs it is improving but far too slowly.

“Independents, which total 65% of the entire network, are not receiving enough deliveries of fuel compared with other sectors such as supermarkets,”

“Until independents start getting frequent supplies, we will continue to see long queues at forecourts.”

Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has argued that the supply chain disruption hitting the UK, such as the petrol shortages, is part of a transition to a new post-Brexit economy.

In an interview with Conservative Home, published this morning, Kwarteng says the UK is moving away from a “low-wage, high-immigration model” that was rejected in the EU referendum in 2016.

He also claims some employers are resisting this move, having benefitted from an ‘influx’ of labour from abroad that kept wages down.

Here’s the details:

Q: ConHome: Brexit was a vote for many things. It was in part a vote for lower migration of a sort, higher wages, a different economic model.

Isn’t what’s going on with this difficulty with the petrol fundamentally about the sort of economy we want. The road haulage people, like some of the fruit pickers, like some meat processors, basically want to go back to the old ways.

They want Government to issue hundreds of thousands of visas, and they’re trying to use public pressure to get you to change course.”

Kwarteng replies:

That’s absolutely right, and I’ve said this a number of times, certainly privately. The reason why constituencies like mine [Spelthorne] voted decisively for Brexit, 60 per cent to 40 per cent, was precisely this issue.

“I remember three weeks before the referendum in 2016, I came out of Staines station and someone came up to me and said ‘I’m voting for Brexit.’

“And I said, ‘Oh, why are you doing that?’

“And he said, ‘Well I haven’t had a wage increase in 15 years,’ and he was someone who worked in the building trade, lots of people do work, certainly in my constituency, in that kind of self-employed, small business, logistics, construction world.

“And that was in his mind what this was all about. And so, having rejected the low-wage, high-immigration model, we were always going to try to transition to something else.

“What we’re seeing now is part of that transition. You’re quite right to say people are resisting that, particularly employers that were benefiting from an influx of labour that could keep wages low.”

Kwarteng is then asked whether that puts the government in a very difficult political position, as employers can use queues and shortages as a “kind of weapon”. So apart from emergency measures, the government can only “tough it out”, ConHome suggests.

Kwarteng replies that this ‘transition period’ could be ‘quite short’.

“I think this is a transition period. As economists would describe, between Equilibrium A and Equilibrium B there’s always going to be a transition period.

“I think it could be quite short. I think what we’re seeing already is quite a lot of investment in the UK. I’ve got a list on my board of lots of things we’ve announced, of investments.

“The head of Goldman Sachs said to me three years ago, ‘No one’s going to invest in the UK because of Brexit.’

“And then about three months ago I said to him, ‘Look at all the investment.’

“He said, ‘Ah, that’s because your assets are cheap [laughter].’ They can hop on the left foot and then hop on the right.

“And we’re seeing investment, we’re seeing success. You speak to investors around the world, they’re all very interested in Britain.

“Not just because of the success they saw with things like the vaccine rollout, great science base, great intellectual capital, but also they see us as a less highly regulated, if you can believe it, jurisdiction than many others around the world.”

Kwarteng also insists the government won’t bail out failing energy companies.

ConHome: “Why did the Government impose the price cap?”

Kwarteng replies:

“That’s a very good question, but once it’s there, why on earth did they enter the market? They still thought they could make money.

“And then when the wholesale price was much higher than the price cap they complained, but I said, ‘The price cap was there when you entered the market, you should have sold oranges or something, or entered another business.’

“They knew what the situation was, and then some of them expected government bailouts, and thankfully that hasn’t really had any resonance, because people could see that they entered the market, they’ve been caught, the tide has revealed that they were wearing nothing, and I’m afraid some of them are going to have to exit the market.

“Having said all that, some of the smaller companies have really driven innovation in the market, so the price cap has allowed for greater competition, has allowed for new entrants, and now, some of those entrants who haven’t been as well-managed are having to leave the market.”

Shadow Business Secretary Ed Miliband says UK factories are suffering from the government’s lack of planning, and failure to heed warnings that supply chains were struggling.

“This Government’s complacency and failure to get a grip on supply chain disruption has led to the impacts we’re now seeing.

“For month after month, ministers were warned by business about the risks to recovery but they collectively buried their heads in the sand. This supply chain disruption is now causing a ripple effect damaging our manufacturing industry with business and the British people paying the price.

“Blaming global factors is a poor excuse to try and avoid responsibility for lack of planning here at home. It’s time they finally got a grip, worked with business, sector by sector, on doing everything they can to address the problems from HGV driver shortages to skills shortages throughout our economy.”

Kit Malthouse also suggested that nobody is to blame for the fuel crisis which has gripped the UK for a week (and might not be resolved for another week or so...)

Speaking on LBC, the crime and policing minister repeated that the situation is “stabilising”.

Supply has increased, and demand has reduced, he says, but there is still strong demand in some parts of the country, which Malthouse suggests is caused by ‘anxious’ motorists filling up.

People are naturally anxious about the important journeys they have to make, and their ability to go about their daily lives, and indeed work and make deliveries.

Asked whose fault is the fuel crisis, Malthouse replied:

“Does it have to be somebody’s fault?”

“Yes, it does”, responded LBC presenter Nick Ferrari firmly.

There are people queuing for two-and-half hours to get petrol. I would suggest something has gone wrong. If something’s gone wrong, normally someone is to blame.

Whose fault is it?... If it’s the media, say it.

Malthouse compares the situation to the rush of demand for toilet rolls early in the pandemic:

There are complicated reasons about the stimulation of demand in a period in which people are anxious, against difficulties of supply.

Those two coming together can exacerbate a situation.

On Tuesday, a YouGov poll found that people hold the media most responsible for the crisis, followed by the government:

Motorists could face another week of long queues at the filling stations as demand for petrol remains strong, a Government minister has suggested.

Policing minister Kit Malthouse told the Today Programme that the “return to normality” could take a “week or so”.

Malthouse said:

“We are still seeing strong demand in parts of the country around fuel. The distribution mechanism is trying to respond to this unprecedented demand.

“My latest briefing is that the situation is stabilising, that we are seeing more forecourts with a greater supply of fuel and hopefully that, as demand and supply come better into balance over the next few days, week or so, that we will see a return to normality.

“I think if things started to deteriorate further, obviously the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Energy, whose responsibility this is, will have to review the situation.”

One option is to deploy the army drivers who are on standby, and have been receiving specialist training to learn how to drive fuel tankers.

Back on Tuesday afternoon, Boris Johnson said the situation was improving, but supplies at the pumps remain stretched (27% of forecourts were dry yesterday, according to members of the Petrol Retailers Association).

Staff shortages, logistics disruption and raw material scarcity are now “hitting the brakes on UK manufacturers’ post Covid-19 recovery”, says James Brougham, senior economist at manufacturers group Make UK.

Both domestic and export order growth suffering while businesses begin to look elsewhere for products as confidence is eroded in the industry’s ability to deliver in a timely fashion.

UK factory growth could weaken further in the next quarter, with some supply chain disruption lasting into 2022, warns Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club:

“Input shortages caused not only a substantial lengthening of suppliers’ delivery times [in September], but also further sharp rises in costs and prices. Though some of the bottlenecks should soon start to ease, many sectors – most notably those requiring semiconductors – are likely to face disruption for much of 2022.

This signals activity is likely to remain constrained for some time to come, while global goods prices will climb further, adding to the variety of upward pressures on inflation in the short-term.

Materials shortages are “taking the wind from manufacturers’ sails” says Huw Howells, head of manufacturing and industrials at Lloyds Bank:

“While it’s possible that things could get worse before they get better, we should remember that a reading above 57 indicates strong growth and was a rarity before the pandemic.

And while serious headaches persist in the supply chain, they’re unlikely to be enough to tip the sector’s growth into reverse.”

Maddie Walker, Accenture’s Industry X lead in the UK, also predicted the slowdown will continue.

“While UK manufacturing output has slowed for the fourth consecutive month, it’s not yet triggering alarm bells with manufacturers showing healthy optimism to meet orders.

We expect a slowdown to continue as manufacturers see no respite from supply chain gridlocks, restricted port capacity and workforce shortages.

Walker adds that the shift to electric cars will mean greater demand for technology skills.

A shift to software-based engineering will require manufacturers to develop and upskill their people or risk a severe skills shortage in the future.”

Growth at UK factories has hit a seven-month low.

Supply chain delays, a slowdown in new orders and rising material and labour shortages all hit the economy, according to the closely-watched survey of purchasing managers.

Manufacturers reported that output and new orders in September grew at the slowest rate since February, when the UK was still under lockdown.

New export business fell for first time in eight months,

Firms also continued to report labour shortages and difficulties recruiting appropriately skilled staff during September, with the shortage of delivery drivers also hitting output.

Jobs growth fell to the weakest since January, with small manufacturers cutting their workforces for the first time in eight months.

The UK manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the sector, fell to 57.1, down from 60.3 in August (any reading over 50 shows growth).

Production schedules were disrupted by a swathe of problems -- including shortages of raw materials and parts, long delays getting supplies, and capacity constraints (including difficulties with staff shortages and hiring required skills).

Those delays were among the worst in the survey’s history -- amid reports of delays to air, land and sea freight, staff shortages at vendors, COVID-19 and Brexit disruptions, a lack of delivery drivers and port delays, Markit says.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, warned that many firms face a ‘tough autumn and winter’, with the fuel crisis adding to their problems.

“The September PMI highlights the risk of the UK descending towards a bout of ‘stagflation’, as growth of manufacturing output and new orders eased sharply while input costs and selling prices continued to surge higher.

Companies are facing a growing list of headwinds, which includes declining new export orders, component shortages, delays to air, land and sea freight, staff shortages exacerbated by COVID-19 illnesses, Brexit disruptions, sharply rising costs and now fuel shortages.

Production growth is severely impacted by the ongoing strain across supply chains and, with demand far exceeding supply, the inevitable result has been higher prices, which will ultimately hurt the pockets of consumers.

Growth across eurozone factories has been hit by the supply chain crisis.

Manufacturers in the euro area were hit by supply-side constraints and “acute inflationary pressures” last month, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers.

New orders and output both grew at a slower rate, as supplier delivery times continued to lengthen considerably.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said goods producers report a growing toll from supply chain headwinds.

“Supply issues continue to wreak havoc across large swathes of European manufacturing, with delays and shortages being reported at rates not witnessed in almost a quarter of a century and showing no signs of any imminent improvement.

“Growing supply and transport issues are not only being cited as a major constraint on both production and demand, but also once again drove prices sharply higher in September.

Factory jobs growth has meanwhile also slowed partly due to lower labour requirements amid the widespread component shortages.

This pulled Markit’s eurozone manufacturing PMI down to 58.6 in September, from August’s 61.4, which shows growth slowed.

Meat producers have warned that European butchers won’t come to the UK on short-term visas to help fix the Christmas food crisis.

Politico Europe’s Esther Webber explains that labour shortages mean British consumers could be left without Christmas staples such as pigs in blankets (with farmers warning today that they could be forced to cull animals instead).

She writes:

David Lindars, technical operations director of the British Meat Processors Association, told POLITICO there would be a particular impact on “very labor-intensive products like pigs in blankets, decorated gammon and party food.”

He warned that time was running out to rectify the situation.

“Even if we were granted seasonal workers’ visas, by the time they’ve got the scheme up and running the whole process means they will only end up with six or seven weeks’ work here,” he said. “Who’s going to come, or leave a job somewhere in Europe, to come here for six or seven weeks? No one.”

He said the average meat-processing company is operating with a shortage of staff at around 15 percent, and in some parts of the U.K., firms are reporting a 25 percent shortage.

Normally meat companies begin producing Christmas items in June, but have not been able to do so this year.

Both the BMPA and the National Farmers Union are pushing for a 12-month COVID-recovery visa, to help industries recruit workers from overseas. More here.

Online electricals retailer AO World has been hit by the supply chain crisis.

AO has told the City that profits this year will be lower than a year ago (when it received a boost from the pandemic).

UK sales in the last six months were affected by the “nationwide shortage of delivery drivers and ongoing disruption in the global supply chain”.

The Bolton-based company, which sells household appliances and other electrical goods from fridges and washing machines to laptops and printers, adds that these problems are ‘ongoing’:

Whilst we continue to see industrywide issues relating to ongoing supply chain disruption, we have implemented measures to help mitigate these challenges in our logistics operations.

AO now expects to make adjusted core profits of between £35m and £50m for this financial year (to 31 March 2022), down from £64m a year ago. Shares have tumbled over 10% in early trading.

The UK is heading into an “acute welfare disaster very quickly” with the country facing a “mass cull of animals”, the chairman of the National Pig Association has warned.

Following warnings that a shortage of butchers could impact food supplies over Christmas, Rob Mutimer told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the situation has worsened:

“The problem in the industry has got very considerably worse over the last three weeks. We are within a couple of weeks of actually having to consider a mass cull of animals in this country.”

He said pig farms of all sizes are running out of space to keep their animals, which is worrying for farmers as we head into winter.

That’s why farmers’ groups are urging the government to issues visas, to allow more butchers into the country.

Asked what a culling situation would involve, Mutimer said:

“It involves either shooting pigs on farm, or taking them to an abattoir, killing the animals, and actually disposing them in the skip at the other end of the chain.

“So these animals won’t go into the food chain. They will either be rendered, or if not, sent for incineration. So it’s an absolute travesty.”

Shortages of butchers means that pigs are already staying on farms longer than usual. Mutimer’s pigs would normally be slaughtered at 115kg - some are now approaching 140kg.

“The pens and the sheds and everything just weren’t designed for animals of this size and we’re really heading into an acute welfare disaster very quickly,” he said.

The Times says ministers are discussing plans to ease visa restrictions to allow up to 1,000 foreign butchers into the country, but that Priti Patel, the home secretary, is resisting the move, amid concerns it is part of a wider push by industry to return to free movement.

Kit Malthouse, minister for crime and policing, says the fuel crisis is stabilising, though demand is still high.

Malthouse told Sky News that ‘excess demand’ for fuel is causing a distribution issue, and suggests it could take a few days for the situation to stabilise further:

“My information this morning is that the situation is stabilising across the country, albeit there’s obviously still high demand for fuel.

Let’s hope that over the next few days that eases as people’s tanks fill, and that extra demand starts to abate a little, and we can get back to a more predictable pattern of supply”

Malthouse insists there’s no shortage of fuel in the UK, but “only so many tankers, only so many drivers” to distribute it.

Hopefully in the next few days things will stabilise further, and return to normality in short order.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, business and the UK’s supply chain crisis.

“When sorrows come, they come not single spies. But in battalions!” as Claudius wisely put it in Hamlet. And today the UK is facing a truckload of trouble.

Business confidence has “fallen off a cliff”, as supply bottlenecks, rising energy prices, fuel shortages and looming tax increases hit the economy.

The Institute of Directors has warned that business confidence in the UK has tumbled to its lowest level since February, deep in the last lockdown.

Its index of business morale has dropped from +22 points to –1 point in September meant a return to the pessimism of February, when the economy was constrained by lockdown restrictions.

Kitty Ussher, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said the UK business environment has “deteriorated dramatically” in recent weeks.

Following a period of optimism in the early summer, people running small and medium sized businesses across the UK are now far less certain about the overall economic situation and the IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index fell off a cliff in September.

“A higher proportion of our members expect costs to rise in the next year than expect revenues to rise. This is not helped by the government’s recent decision to raise employers’ national insurance contributions, which acts as a disincentive to hire just when the furlough scheme is ending.

Unions, economists and other businesses groups have also warned that ending the furlough scheme yesterday will add to the UK’s economic woes.

The petrol crisis has entered its second week. Yesterday, nearly half of all independently owned petrol stations in the UK were still dry or out of one type of fuel on Thursday, following the panic buying that hit forecourts last Friday.

With high demand still draining sites quickly, soldiers are on standby to drive tankers to help with the refuelling effort amid a lack of HGV drivers.

Brian Madderson, chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association, warned yesterday:

“There’s been no easing off of the pressure from drivers wanting to refuel whenever they can, wherever they can. Trying to calm this down appears to be a monumental task at the moment.”

The petrol crisis is improving in northeast England, Yorkshire, Scotland and Wales but large areas are still suffering significant shortages, according to an internal Whitehall analysis seen by The Times.

That analysis shows that fuel levels are still much too low:

Average fuel levels at forecourts remain at 20 per cent for the fourth day running, compared with a usual 43 per cent. Industry sources have said there could be disruption for up to a month.

The Whitehall analysis categorises each region as red, amber or green. It shows that in England, London, the southeast, the northwest, and the west and east Midlands are rated red, with levels of less than 20 per cent.

The wider shortage of HGV drivers is hitting the economy, raising warnings that Christmas could be badly disrupted as families struggle to find festive food and presents.

The government is also being urged to allow more butchers into the country, with the Britain’s farming industry warning that hundreds of thousands of pigs may have to be culled within weeks.

Lizzie Wilson, policy services officer at the National Pig Association (NPA), said the shortage of butchers meant processors were operating at 25% reduced capacity. That means mature pigs ready for processing are backing-up on farms, causing welfare issues.

“There’s about 120,000 pigs sat on farm currently that should have already been slaughtered, butchered, be within the food chain and eaten by now,”

UK households are also seeing their energy bills jump today, as the energy price cap is lifted. The cap means those on default tariffs paying by direct debit will see their bills rise £139 from £1,138 to £1,277, based on typical usage.

It will add to the cost of living squeeze facing families this winter. Charities warn that the government’s new £500m winter hardship fund won’t provide enough support, given next week’s £20-a-week cut to universal credit.

But the increase in the cap has been overtaken by the surge in global energy prices in the last few weeks, which have forced several UK suppliers out of business.

On the economic front, we get new inflation data from the US and eurozone will be closely watched, and find out how global factories fared last month.

Data released already today shows that Asia’s manufacturing activity was lacklustre in September amid signs of slowing Chinese growth and factory shutdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Investors are also feeling gloomy, with European stock markets expected to open lower after sharp falls in Asia-Pacific bourses overnight (Japan’s Nikkei has closed down 2.3%).

The agenda

• 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI survey for September
• 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI survey for September
• 10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for September
• 1.30pm BST: US PCE inflation measure for August
• 2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI survey for September
• 3pm BST: University of Michigan survey of US consumer confidence