The latest payroll job index released on Wednesday allows us to make a good guess that Thursday’s labour force figures will show a nice increase in employment. But the figures also show that there is still a way to go before the impact of the lockdowns is completely over. The payroll figures from the week ending 16 October saw a 0.9% increase over the past four weeks.
There will of course be a bit of seasonal adjustment in the labour force figures, but given those figures cover the first two weeks of each month, it is a good bet that at 11:30am the Bureau of Statistics will show that there has been a nice jump in employment in October.
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But what type of work has gone up?
For one thing, the biggest growth in jobs in the past month has been for young workers – because they were the ones who most lost work during the lockdowns:
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Given younger workers are less likely to work full-time it will be interesting to see if the labour force figures show the recovery of employment in October was mostly part-time.
But despite the jump in jobs in October, across Australia total jobs remain below what was in place before New South Wales went into lockdown in June.
But of course, the picture is very different across the nation.
Victoria, NSW and the ACT lost jobs well beyond those of the other states over the past few months.
Jobs in October in the ACT were down nearly 9% on where they were before it went into lockdown in the middle of August – a much bigger fall than occurred even in NSW or Victoria:
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And while the jobs are returning in NSW and Victoria, they remain well down on where they were before the lockdowns:
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Here we see the problem of the Bureau of Statistics moving from fortnightly to monthly payroll job numbers. Last year during the winding down of the lockdowns, the fortnightly numbers gave a much more up-to-date picture than did the monthly labour force figures.
Now we have figures that themselves are a bit out of date given the massive changes in restriction since 16 October.
As it is, the growth of jobs over the past year shows just how greatly different things have been for those in the lockdown areas of the south-east compared to the rest of the country:
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The map reinforces just how fluid the economic situation is at the moment.
Victoria, NSW and the ACT are likely to have surging economies in the run-up to Christmas as people get out of their homes and go shopping. The rest of the country is unlikely to see such a release of pent-up demand.
One area that should provide a boost across the nation is jobs in hospitality and recreation. Given the size of NSW and Victoria, their lockdowns affected tourism elsewhere.
As a result, just as with last year’s lockdowns, the biggest hit industries this year were accommodation and food services and art and recreation:
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Last year it took around six months for the jobs to come back in line with the rest of the economy. This year the impact of the vaccines and the closeness of Christmas might see the return of some even quicker.
That would certainly be welcome news for those in the airline industry. Jobs in air transport have not surprisingly been by far the hardest hit during the pandemic – down nearly 40% on the number of jobs there before April last year.
Thursday’s labour force figures should contain some good news. Employment should be up and the recovery from the lockdowns should be progressing well.
But while the payroll job figures give a good insight into the industries and locations of the job growth, we shall have to wait for Thursday’s figures to see how full-time and part-time employment is going and if people have not just come back to work, but have come back looking for work.
