Julia Kollewe 

US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis – as it happened

US inflation hits 6.2% while core inflation also picks up; in the UK, M&S returns to first-half profit and credits strong food and jeggings sales
  
  

Truckers wait with their truck, at the Marathon Oil Refinery to be loaded with fuel in Salt Lake City, Utah,
Truckers wait with their truck, at the Marathon Oil Refinery to be loaded with fuel in Salt Lake City, Utah, Photograph: George Frey/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

Inflation has surged in the US, China and Germany. In the US, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 6.2% in October amid global supply shortages, the highest since 1990, while the core rate excluding food and energy picked up to 4.6%, the highest since 1991.

There was a fresh jump in gasoline prices which had levelled off in recent weeks, while prices for hotel rooms and car rentals bounced back amid a recovery in travel, and new and used car prices also rose.

Inflation in China rose to a tamer 1.5% annual rate last month, but this was a doubling from 0.7%, while German inflation came in at 4.5% in October versus 4.1% in September.

Wall Street is down while the major European indices have also edged lower, with the notable exceptions of the UK’s FTSE 100 index, up 0.6%, and Italy’s FTSE MiB, up 0.4%.

Here are today’s other main stories:

Efforts to combat a looming debt crisis in the world’s poorest countries are being hindered by a lack of up-to-date, reliable figures showing how much individual nations owe, the World Bank has said.

Demand for jeans, jogging bottoms and workwear have helped Marks & Spencer to a long-awaited turnaround of its clothing business, prompting the group to forecast profits of £500m for the full year, its second profit upgrade in three months (and this century). Its share price jumped by more than 15%.

Out of the frump slump: how M&S lifted itself back into profit

Twenty-four countries and a group of leading car manufacturers have committed to ending the era of fossil-fuel powered vehicles by 2040 “or earlier”, in a major new commitment set at Cop26.

The Jeff Bezos-backed electric carmaker Rivian is aiming for a market value of $65bn (£48bn) when shares start trading in New York on Wednesday, in one of the biggest-ever stock market floats.

Shares in ITV soared 14% on Wednesday after the broadcaster said it was on track to enjoy the best year for advertising revenues in its 66-year history, as businesses pour money into marketing to drive a post-pandemic recovery.

Wetherspoon’s has suffered a slump in sales below pre-pandemic levels, which the pub chain’s chairman, Tim Martin, blamed on older customers staying away because of lingering caution about the danger of Covid-19 infection.

Thank you for reading and commenting. We’ll be back tomorrow. Bye! - JK

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Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said:

The 0.9% month-on-month surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures are likely to keep inflation unusually high.

The biggest concern for the Fed should be signs that longer-lasting cyclical inflation pressures are continuing to build rapidly, with CPI rent of primary residence and owners’ equivalent rent both posting strong gains of 0.4% m/m. As the improving labour market and prior gains in house prices continue to feed through, a further acceleration in shelter inflation looks nailed on. Headline prices were also boosted by a huge 0.8% m/m rise in food away from home prices and, with leisure sector wage growth continuing to surge, that also has further to run.

The bottom line is that, while it remains difficult to predict how far or for how long the various “transitory” factors will boost inflation, there is mounting evidence that inflationary pressures are building throughout the economy. That underlines our view that inflation will remain elevated for much longer than Fed officials expect.

Meanwhile, Tesla has fallen out of the $1trn club again after sharp share price declines today and yesterday.

The US electric carmaker broke through a trillion dollars in market capitalisation late in October, becoming the fifth US company to join a club that includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet.

Tesla shares are falling as investors gear up for the chief executive Elon Musk’s proposed sale of about a tenth of his holdings after he held a Twitter poll on it.

Musk, the world’s richest person, tweeted on Saturday that he would offload 10% of his stock if users of the social media network approved the proposal.

The opening bell has rung on Wall Street:

  • Dow Jones down 58 points, or 0.16%, at 36,261
  • S&P 500 down 19 points, or 0.4%, at 4,665
  • Nasdaq down 132 points, or 0.83%, at 15,754

Karen Ward, chief market strategist EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said:

The rise in US inflation was again greater than expected and the upside surprise on core inflation is particularly noteworthy. We don’t however think this will prompt a hawkish shift from the Fed. Like other developed world central banks – the Fed have settled on the narrative that headline inflation is being boosted by short-term factors; that elevated energy and raw material prices, production and transport issues in emerging markets, and domestic labour shortages will all resolve themselves in the fullness of time.

I am not convinced these shortages – particularly in the labour market - will resolve themselves quickly and government bond curves should be steepening on the basis that eventually the Fed will have to do more. It shouldn’t however deter appetite for stocks at this stage.

Today’s print essentially tells us firms have pricing power which is good for corporate earnings.

US stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street in 20 minutes’ time, suggesting declines of 0.34% (S&P 500) to 0.66% (Nasdaq).

The dollar has gained 0.4% against a basket of currencies, and 10-year US government bond yields rose.

The price of spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,853 an ounce. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation.

Last month the Fed started scaling back the amount of money it is injecting into the economy through monthly bond purchases.

Neil Wilson at Markets.com said:

Well this is a mess, an inflation report so bad even the Fed might actually do something about it? Hohoho, I joke of course… Inflation way ahead of forecast and exceeding 6% on the headline number, highest in 30 years, core month-on-month accelerated to +0.6%. Yet Fed still sticks to its ‘transitory’ narrative.

Gold has blown past resistance and the path to $1,875 is clear. Stocks offered and the dollar is bid. Bonds sold off with US 10year yields jumping above 1.480%. 30 year real yields (TIPS) [Treasury Inflation-Protected Security] touched a record low -0.595%, whilst 10yr TIPS fell to I think a record low of -1.224%.m Stocks are paring losses and the dollar is paring gains – so far only really gold holding onto the spike with real rates the biggest loser from all of this. Well, after the Fed’s credibility.

Initial jobless claims fall to lowest since March 2020

As economies around the world recover from the pandemic, demand for oil and other commodities has increased. Brent crude prices have gained more than 60% this year as a result, while gasoline prices in the US are at seven-year highs.

Many countries, including the US and the UK, are also struggling with shortages of skilled workers. The US Labor Department reported today that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 4,000 to 267,000 for the week to 6 November. That’s the lowest level since mid-March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic first struck and the economy ground to a halt.

Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina, told Reuters:

Supply disruptions and the recovery of services poses a substantial concern that higher-than-expected inflation could persist for longer than the Fed believes.

We expect goods inflation to hand the baton to services over the course of the next year, but all signs indicate that supply chain bottlenecks will keep fanning the flames off inflation in the near term.

US inflation is now at the highest annual rate since November 1990, amid a global supply chain crisis, suggesting price pressures could remain uncomfortably high well into next year. It rose to 6.2% last month from 5.4% in September.

The Federal Reserve has reiterated that high inflation should prove temporary but many economists at sceptical.

Even excluding food and energy which tend to be volatile, the consumer prices index jumped 4.6% year-on-year, the biggest increase since August 1991, after being steady at 4% for two straight months. That’s the so-called core CPI.

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Senior currency market analyst Simon Harvey at Monex tweets:

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US inflation jumps to 6.2%

NEWSFLASH: US inflation has jumped to an annual rate of 6.2% in October, higher than the 5.8% forecast by economists. Excluding food and energy which tend to be volatile, inflation was 4.6%.

In a few minutes, we’ll be getting the latest US inflation reading for October. We are expecting an annual rate of close to 6%, 5.8% or 5.9%, which would be a 30-year high.

Evergrande teeters on brink of default

In China, the debt-laden property developer Evergrande Group is (once again) teetering on the brink of default.

Some bondholders have not received their coupon payments of more than $148m due at the close of Asian business today, sources told Reuters.

The company holds the dubious title of being the world’s most indebted developer and has been stumbling from deadline to deadline in recent weeks. It has more than $300bn in debts, $19bn of which are international market bonds.

Evergrande has narrowly avoided default so far, but a 30-day grace period on coupon payments on its April 2022, 2023 and 2024 bonds ends today, though it is uncertain when exactly.

A failure to pay would result in a formal default by the company, and trigger cross-default provisions for other Evergrande dollar bonds, worsening a debt crisis in China.

The US Federal Reserve warned yesterday that China’s struggling property sector could pose global risks.

Moody’s Investors Service, the credit rating agency, downgraded Kaisa Group today, citing liquidity risks, limited financial flexibility and poor recovery prospects for its creditors. Kaisa has the most offshore debt of any Chinese developer after Evergrande. It has coupon payments of more than $59m due on Thursday and Friday.

Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist for Italy and Greece at ING, said:

There’s good demand, but Italian producers seem to be meeting increasing supply-driven obstacles. This will likely limit the scope for a substantial industrial contribution to the country’s GDP growth in the coming quarter.

Looking ahead, evidence from recent business confidence surveys points to a continuation of the current production pattern. The combination of strong domestic and foreign orders and declining inventories is, in principle, a good best omen for higher production, but businesses are also signalling that materials and capacity are increasingly hampering production.

Even assuming that some businesses managed to hoard intermediate goods and commodities, longer delivery times suggest that that might not have been enough to meet growing demand.

Furthermore, even though demand is not yet perceived as an obstacle, the vulnerability to supply disruptions of Italy’s main trading partners might eventually negatively hit Italian producers. Germany, Italy’s premier export destination, is a case in point, with Italian car subcomponent producers clearly exposed to the risk of production stops from chip scarcity in the car industry.

The bottom line is that, notwithstanding the notable resilience in manufacturer confidence, we believe that temporary factors will limit the scope for a solid contribution of industry to GDP growth over 4Q21. Add to this some cooling down in services on the back of Covid-19 concerns, we will likely end up with a clear deceleration of GDP growth over the coming quarter. We are currently pencilling in a 0.5% QoQ GDP expansion in 4Q21, which would still leave the average Italian 2021 GDP growth at a comforting 6.2%.

In Italy, industrial production edged 0.1% higher in September from August, the country’s statistics office Istat said this morning. In August, output slipped 0.1%.

In the three months to September, output was 1% higher than in the prior three months.

It is M&S’s second profit upgrade in three months, and only the second this century. AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said:

Something spectacular must have happened since August for Marks & Spencer to upgrade earnings guidance once again. Back then, it believed pre-tax profit for the year would be above the upper end of a previously guided £300m to £350m range. Now it’s talking about profit hitting £500m which is quite some jump.

Food sales are doing incredibly well, particularly instore. It has really nailed the proposition with decent quality products and an ever-widening range of items. Quality is the key word as it caters for a specific type of customer who is happy to pay that bit extra for something nice.

Its online joint venture with Ocado has also helped the business reached a broader audience, such as individuals who want higher quality products but don’t want the faff of visiting a store.

However, clothing continues to be a mixed bag, he said, although the company comes across as more confident about its prospects.

Overall sales aren’t growing but operating profit is, thanks to selling more items at full price.

Marks & Spencer has a reputation for being the place you buy you undies and socks, or perhaps push the boat out and buy a pastel-coloured sweater. Yet that isn’t enough to sustain a proper clothing business.

Suits and formalwear have been pushed to one side and more floorspace given to athleisure, jeggings and jeans. The only problem is that so many of its customers are old and don’t want to wear splashproof running bottoms. The company needs to attract a younger crowd and it could take a long time to change its image as the brand is still associated with slippers and socks.

“Just imagine if Marks & Spencer and Next merged. The former has nailed the food proposition and the latter is an expert in clothing. Together they could be a real force in the retail sector. But such a tie-up seems unlikely as Next doesn’t need any help and it is full of bright ideas to keep growing profits, food certainly not being on the menu.”

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Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, the trading and investments platform, said about the M&S results:

This is a great return to something like normality, the market rewarding the news with a 15% bounce in the shares, with a prudent note of caution where the dividend is concerned.

The shares have come roaring back from the brutal decline of June/July, but with January 2020 levels now recovered the question will be where the next big of good news can come from. If it can dodge most of the supply chain concerns there is room for more upside, but the stock needs a fairly rosy assessment of Christmas sales to keep moving higher, and that might just put off disappointment until January and the post-festive trading statement.

Shares in Marks & Spencer have jumped more than 15% to 223.5p! After the retailer returned to profit in the first half and upped its profit forecast for the full year.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, tweeted:

Updated

Oil stocks, along with strong earnings from companies including the German chipmaker Infineon, are driving European shares higher.

In London, BP is the third-biggest riser, up 2%, while ITV is the No 1 gainer, after the broadcaster said it was enjoying its best year for ad revenues in its 66-year history.

Crude oil prices have been boosted by industry data showing US crude stocks fell unexpectedly last week.

On the stock markets, shares are pushing higher, shrugging off higher German and Chinese inflation. Only the Dax in Frankfurt is slightly down at 16,033. The FTSE 100 index in London has gained 22 points, or 0.3%, to 7,296 while the CAC 40 in Paris is flat at 7,046 and the FTSE MiB in Milan is 0.46% ahead at 27,566.

In other news this morning, Britain’s employers are offering bonuses of up to £2,000 to recruit Christmas workers amid fears over staff shortages disrupting the festive season, reports our economics correspondent Richard Partington.

Research from the jobs website Adzuna showed there are currently 26,307 seasonal job vacancies ahead of the pivotal Christmas shopping period, almost double the 13,668 at the same point a year ago.

My other colleague Jasper Jolly has visited the West Midlands, which is also carving out a new role in electric vehicle production. He writes:

Corners of the Alucast factory in the Black Country would be familiar to metalworkers several centuries ago. Workers pour molten aluminium at 720C into steel moulds. The cooling metal is then quickly pressed into shape before being sanded down into parts for gas-guzzling British sports cars.

Yet for all its traditional West Midlands manufacturing roots, Alucast is finding a role for itself in a fast-growing new industry: electric cars.

It needs to make the switch fast. The UK will ban the sale of all petrol and diesel cars by 2035, and other big car markets are following suit. The accelerated end of the internal combustion engine surprised and delighted environmental activists and has proven politically popular. Yet it has thrown into sharp relief the peril facing workers in the fossil fuel economy, who risk being left behind in the energy transition.

My colleague Joanna Partridge has visited the German carmaker Volkswagen’s Zwickau factory in east Germany to find out how it is recovering from dieselgate, with its €35bn bid to lead the charge in electric vehicle production. It is a wider tale of how Germany is trying to wean itself off fossil fuels. She writes:

Volkswagen hopes investment in its Zwickau plant – where Trabants were once built – will put dieselgate to rest.

Two bronze statues that guard the entrance to Zwickau train station in Saxony tell the tale of Germany’s struggle to wean itself off fossil fuels.

A crouching miner cradles a lamp in a nod to the lignite, a particularly dirty form of coal, that was dug from this part of former East Germany, fuelling its factories and power stations. His companion, an engineer, represents the car industry that dominates Germany’s industrial heartland.

But while mining for coal is on the way out, the country’s influential car industry, which employs more than 830,000 people, is heading in a new direction. Volkswagen’s enormous plant on the outskirts of the medieval town is the first in the German carmaker’s empire to fully embrace the future.

Updated

ITV: best year for advertising in its 66-year history

ITV is set to enjoy the best year for advertising revenues in its 66-year history, as businesses pour money into marketing to drive a post-pandemic recovery and content such as the Euro 2020 tournament prove a hit with viewers, reports our media business correspondent Mark Sweney.

ITV, which said that it is performing more strongly than in 2019 before the pandemic hit, said that total advertising revenue for the first nine months is up 30% year-on-year to £1.3bn.

The UK’s biggest free-to-air commercial broadcaster said that for the year it expects total ad revenues, which includes the growing income from ads on streaming service ITV Hub, to be up a quarter over 2020 to hit an all-time high. The broadcaster said that in final three months of the year - which is forecast to see a record spend in the run up to Christmas and is when ITV usually makes about 30% of its annual ad income - will be up as much as 13% year-on-year.

“2021 looks set to have the highest revenue in ITV’s history,” said Carolyn McCall, chief executive at ITV. “By any standards ITV has had an outstanding nine months.”

Total revenues including ITV Studios, which makes and sells shows such as Coronation Street, Line of Duty and Come Dine With Me, rose 28% year-on-year to £2.38bn in the first nine months. This is 8% higher than in 2019.

“Revenue from each business is up both on last year and 2019,” said McCall, who said that content spend will hit £1.16bn next year due to programming including the FIFA World Cup and investment in dramas.

The broadcaster said the share of total TV viewing taken by its flagship ITV channel increased in the first nine months. However, total viewing including across its digital channel portfolio fell 5% year-on-year.

M&S back in profit but warns on supply issues

Marks & Spencer is back in the black, but warned that the impact of the pandemic, supply chain issues and Brexit would weigh on its performance into 2022.

The retailer, usually seen as a bellwether of the high street, made a first-half profit before tax of £187.3m versus a loss of nearly £88m a year earlier. Food prices jumped 10% and it hailed a “substantial” improvement in its struggling clothing and homewares business.

Clothing and homewares sales were down just 1.0% compared with 2019/20, despite lockdown extending into the first week of the period. Sales grew in the second quarter and overall full price sales were up 17.3% for the period. Operating profit before adjusting items was £156.2m, up from £109.6m in 2019/20.

Steve Rowe, the chief executive, said:

Given the history of M&S we’ve been clear that we won’t overclaim our progress. Unpacking the numbers isn’t a linear exercise and we’ve called out the Covid bounce back tailwinds, as well as the headwinds from the pandemic, supply chain and Brexit, some of which will continue into next year.

But, thanks to the hard work of our colleagues, it is clear that underlying performance is improving, with our main businesses making important gains in market share and customer perception. The hard yards of driving long term change are beginning to be borne out in our performance.

M&S said it had ‘re-engineered” its clothing & homeware division to try and reverse years of decline in the business. This includes training staff in efficient buying and merchandising, creating a more focused core range while also broadening choice in growth area such as activewear, kids’ daywear and homewares.

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Introduction: China, German inflation rises, oil prices climb

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

We’ve woken up to news that inflation has picked up in China and Germany, while oil prices are also climbing, adding to worries that mounting price pressures could prompt central banks to raise interest rates.

Inflation in Germany picked up to 4.5% in October from 4.1% in September, but is slightly below August’s 4.6% rate, according to the country’s statistics office Destatis.

A surge in energy prices was behind the rise, up 18.6% year on year and up for the fourth month in a row. Prices of heating oil doubled and motor fuels jumped 35% while prices of natural gas and electricity rose by 7.4% and 2.5% respectively. Food prices are also rising, up 4.4% in October, pushed higher by dearer dairy products and eggs, and bread and cereals.

Meanwhile, China’s inflation jumped to an annual rate of 1.5% in October from 0.7% in September, marking a 13-month high, official figures showed. The increase was driven by higher prices for food and fuel. Factory gate prices soared 13.5%, the fastest rate in 26 years, as coal prices soared amid a power crunch in China’s industrial heartland.

On the oil markets, Brent crude has risen by 0.6% to $85.31 a barrel while US light crude is at $84.46 a barrel, up 0.37%.

Shares in Asia have retreated, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.4%, recouping some of their earlier losses, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.6%.

European stock markets are set to open lower ahead of the latest US inflation data.

Out at lunchtime, US inflation figures for October are expected to show consumer prices galloping ahead at 5.8% year on year, a 30-year high, according to a Reuters poll of economists’ forecasts.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

With a number of Fed policymakers making louder noises about the need for rate hikes next year, a strong number here could well prompt a rebound in US [bond] yields which have declined quite sharply in the last week or so, with the 10-year down over 15bps from last week’s highs.

The Agenda

  • 9am GMT: Italy industrial production for September
  • 1.30pm GMT: US inflation for October (forecast: 5.8%)
  • 1.30pm GMT: US jobless claims
  • 1.30pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro speaks

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