Closing post
Time to wrap up, after a day in which world stock markets, oil, and risky assets such as cryptocurrencies have been hit hard by the discovery of a new coronavirus variant which could derail the global recovery.
Here’s today’s main stories:
Our main Covid-19 liveblog will be tracking the latest:
Wall Street’s fear index, the VIX, jumped by over 50% today -- showing a very sharp increase in volatility.
Wall Street slides in Dow's worst day this year
The US stock market has closed, with heavy losses on a shortened session after the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Dow Jones industrial average has closed down 905 points, or 2.5%, at 34,899 points, its biggest one-day percentage drop since late October 2020.
American Express (-8.6%), Boeing (-5.4%) and Caterpillar (-4%) led the Dow fallers, in a global shift away from risky assets today.
The S&P 500 index fell 2.2%, its biggest one-day drop since February this year. Cruise operators and airlines led the fallers, including Royal Caribbean Cruises (-13%), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (-11.3%), Carnival Corp (-11%), United Airlines (-9.5%) and American Airlines (-8.8%).
The selloff was broad-based, with energy, financials, industrials, real estate and consumer discretionary sectors worst hit.
Pharmaceuticals bucked the selloff, though, with vaccine makers Moderna (+20.5%) and Pfizer (+6%) seeing strong gains.
“It is déjà vu all over again for like the eighth time,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Global Investments in Atlanta (via Reuters):
“What we understand about this variant could accelerate over the weekend, if there is more concerning news than good news, a lot of people don’t want to be holding risk assets on Monday morning, or are afraid of what that could look like Monday morning.”
The World Health Organization has named the B.1.1.529 Covid variant Omicron and says an advisory group has recommended that it should be designated as “of concern”
In a statement, WHO said preliminary evidence suggests the latest variant carries a “higher risk of re-infection than other variants of concern”.
More here:
Around £13.5bn has been wiped off the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized and smaller firms today, as it tumbled by 3.2% in a selloff led by travel companies.
That’s on top of the £72bn knocked off the blue-chip FTSE 100 today.
European markets also had their worst day since June 2020.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 has closed down almost 3.7%, with travel stocks, banks, energy companies and miners all badly hit.
Germany’s DAX fell 4.15%, while France’s CAC index slid 4.75%
Worries over the B.1.1.529 variant have added to concerns that new lockdowns could be implemented to address rising Covid infection rates in some parts of Europe.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says (via Reuters):
“With Europe and some northern parts of the U.S. in a stretched situation due to an already high number of new cases and hospitalisations, this new virus strain comes at the worst possible time,”
“Equities are reacting negatively because it is unknown at this point to what degree the vaccines will be effective against the new strain, and thus it increases risk of new lockdowns.”
Cruise operator Carnival led the fallers on the UK’s FTSE 250 index, sliding by 16% today on concerns that travel restrictions could be reimposed.
Budget airline easyJet has fallen by 11.5%, and rival Wizz Air lost 15%, while holiday operator TUI shed 10%.
The FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized companies, fell by nearly 3.2% today.
Updated
Oil giants have also tumbled sharply today, hit by the tumble in crude prices.
BP dropped by 7.8% and Royal Dutch Shell fell 5.6%.
£72bn wiped off FTSE 100 in biggest one-day fall since June 2020
Britain’s stock market has seen its biggest plunge in over a year, as investors ditch shares in companies most exposed to the pandemic after the discovery of the new coronavirus variant.
The FTSE 100 index has closed down 266 points, or 3.64%, which is its biggest one-day fall since June 2020.
It knocks around £72bn off the value of the blue-chip index, taking it to 7044 points, its lowest level in seven weeks.
Travel stocks were badly hit, with British Airways owner IAG ending the day down nearly 15%.
Jet engine maker and servicer Rolls-Royce has slumped by over 11%, followed by manufacturing group Melrose which lost 10%.
Hotel chain operators InterContinental (-9%) and Whitbread (-8.7%) were also in the top fallers, along with conference group Informa (-9%), and Standard Chartered bank(-8.9%).
Updated
Wall Street’s selloff is intensifying, with the Dow Jones industrial average now down 1,016 points or 2.85% at 34,788 points.
This puts the Dow on track for its worst drop of the year, points out CNBC, in a shortened trading day because of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are both down over 2% too.
The US dollar has also lost ground today, with pandemic worries making an earlier rise in US interest rates less likely.
The dollar is down 1% against the euro, which has risen to $1.132. Earlier this week, the euro hit a 16-month low against the greenback.
But, the emergence of a new Covid strain that puts the recovery in some doubt has prompted a sharp reversal in equities, bonds and FX markets, point out analysts at MUFG Bank.
They write:
For most of the week, market participants had been pricing in more rate hikes especially in the US encouraged by the ongoing hawkish shift in Fed rhetoric.
However, those expectations for faster Fed rate hikes have reversed sharply at the end of this week in response to fears over further COVID-related disruption from the “Nu” variant that is feared may have a higher risk of evading vaccine protection.
US crude has sunk below $70 per barrel for the first time since September.
It’s down over 11% today, as oil markets are hit by heavy selling.
Update: Brent crude has now slumped by over 10%, dropping below $74 per barrel, from $82/barrel last night.
Oil plunges further
The oil price has now plunged by 9% today, as concerns over the B.1.1.529 variant rip through the markets.
Brent crude has fallen to as low as $74.64 per barrel, a new two-month low, on fears that new pandemic curbs could be brought in, such as travel restrictions.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with ThinkMarkets, says:
Crude oil and travel stocks took the brunt of the sell-off on Friday amid concerns the new variant will prompt fresh mobility restrictions and hinder economic activity. The UK was swift to announce a temporary flight ban from a number of southern African countries.
If more countries follow suit, we could see demand for air travel fall. This, in turn could weigh on crude demand, just as the US and a few other oil consuming nations are releasing crude from their strategic reserves to add output to the global supply.
Back in London, shares are heading lower.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares is now down around 3.2%, or 234 points, at 7076, so still on track for its worst day of 2021.
UK government bond prices are rallying, as investors seek safer assets, which is pushing down the interest rate (or yield) on these UK gilts.
Shares in some vaccine makers are soaring, though, with Pfizer up 7% and Moderna jumping 22%.
The selloff is gathering pace on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average is down 905 points or 2.5% at 34,899 points after 20 minutes trading.
American Express (-8.3%) are the top faller on the Dow, followed by aerospace manufacturer Boeing (-7%) and construction equipment maker Caterpillar (-5%).
US travel companies are a sea of red, with cruise operator Carnival down 10% on the S&P 500, Royal Caribbean off 9.1%, and United Airlines falling 9.6%.
Hotel group Marriott are down 9.2%.
Wall Street joins selloff
The New York stock market is falling sharply at the start of trading, amid fears over the new Covid-19 variant.
The S&P 500 index, which covers a broad range of the market, has dropped by 1.25% at the open - down 60 points at 4,641 points.
Energy, financial and industrial stocks are leading the selloff, along with travel firms, in what will be a shortened session for the Thanksgiving break.
The Dow Jones industrial average, which contains 30 large US firms, is down 1.85%, losing 660 points to 35,143 points.
But the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index is holding up better, down 0.75%.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, says:
Risk assets are getting pummelled at the end of the week as a new Covid variant sparks fears of new restrictions and lockdowns.
The most worrying thing about the new strain at the moment is how little we know about it, with early indications being that it could be more problematic than delta. The biggest fear is that it will be resistant to vaccines and be a massive setback for countries that have reaped the benefits from their rollouts.
We’ll no doubt learn more in the days and weeks ahead but for now, fear of the unknown will weigh heavily going into the weekend and could carry over into next week. We’re seeing a typical flight to safety in the markets with equities, commodity currencies and oil getting whacked and traditional safe havens like bonds, gold, the yen and swiss franc getting plenty of love.
Updated
Climate activists have blockaded Amazon distribution centres across the UK to highlight the company’s treatment of its workforce and what they say are its “environmentally destructive and wasteful business practices”.
Scores of Extinction Rebellion (XR) activists locked themselves together and used bamboo structures in an attempt to disrupt the online retail company’s distribution network on Black Friday – one of the busiest shopping days of the year.
Unveiling banners reading “Infinite growth: Finite planet”, protesters said the blockade was part of an international action by XR targeting Amazon “fulfilment centres” in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.
In the UK, activists targeted sites in Dunfermline, Doncaster, Darlington, Newcastle upon Tyne, Manchester, Peterborough, Derby, Coventry, Rugeley, Dartford, Bristol, Tilbury and Milton Keynes.
More here:
The UK is headed for its biggest Black Friday sales day with data suggesting shoppers had already spent over a fifth more than last year by mid-morning and 5.4% more than in 2019.
Payments via Barclaycard, one of the UK’s biggest debit and credit card issuers, were up 21.4% between midnight and 9am compared with the same period in 2020, when most of the UK high street was in lockdown.
Nationwide said its customers had made 1.3m purchases by 9am, 24% up on last year. Mark Nalder, head of payments at the building society, said: “We expect the day to get even busier as typically the busiest shopping periods are at lunchtime and into the early evening when people have finished work.”
The figures show the UK is on track for shoppers to spend almost £9.2bn this weekend – 15% more than in 2020 – as predicted by analysts at GlobalData for the VoucherCodes Shopping for Christmas report.
A first case in Europe of the new variant of Covid-19 has been identified in Belgium.
Virologist Marc Van Ranst, whose laboratory works closely with Belgium’s public health body Sciensano, said on Twitter that the variant was found in a traveller who returned to Belgium from Egypt on November 11th. The person developed the first symptoms on November 22nd, he added.
Updated
Full story: Oil prices plunge as new Covid variant spooks markets
Global oil prices have plunged below $80 a barrel after “the most worrying” new variant of Covid-19 was identified in South Africa, raising fears in the market of renewed global travel restrictions that could derail the oil market’s recovery.
The price of Brent crude had tumbled by more than $4 (£2.99) a barrel, or 4.9%, to $78.15 a barrel by mid-morning on Friday after countries across Europe and Asia brought in immediate travel restrictions to guard against the spread of the B.1.1.529 variant identified in several African countries. The US oil price per barrel plunged by more than $5 to just over $73.
The new variant has multiple mutations to its spike protein that it is feared could enable it to evade the immune response induced by existing vaccines.
After its identification earlier this week, the UK government announced on Thursday night it was putting six southern African countries back on England’s travel red list, with British travellers returning from those locations from 4am on Sunday having to quarantine. Meanwhile, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU also aimed to halt air travel from the region.
B.1.1.529 threatens to reverse the oil market’s gains in recent months as travel and economic activity had begun to recover from a series of coronavirus lockdowns around the world.
The sudden drop in global oil prices also wiped value from the UK’s largest listed oil and gas companies. The oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is down 4.8% this afternoon, with BP tumbling 6.5%.
More here:
US stock index futures are still signaling a tumble, with travel, bank and commodity-linked stocks bearing the brunt of the selloff.
Updated
Bank of England's Pill: ground is prepared for policy action
The Bank of England’s new chief economist has cited Chinese communist leader Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms today, as he explains why the BoE should take a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Huw Pill told the CBI that if the UK jobs market remains strong, interest rates will need to gradually increase in the coming months, to make sure inflation comes back down from current high levels.
In his first speech as the Bank’s chief economist, Pill says:
At 4.2% in October, UK CPI inflation is well above its 2% target. This is clearly uncomfortable for a monetary policy maker with the objective of price stability.
In my view, the ground has now been prepared for policy action
But as the economic picture is still uncertain, the BoE can’t give precise guarantees on what will happen to interest rates, especially further into the future than the coming months [investors were surprised when the Bank didn’t raise interest rates this month]
The main message, Pill says, is that the Bank should be cautious in offering guidance on the path of interest rates at those longer horizons, as policymakers weigh up the risks to growth and inflation.
He concludes:
Deng Xiaoping famously characterised China’s economic liberalisation as an attempt to ‘cross the river by feeling the stones’. That metaphor feels appropriate to describe the coming challenges for UK monetary policy.
We know where we are headed: towards the 2% inflation target.
We know that the passage there be challenging, with strong currents and hidden undertows all threatening our progress.
But rather than identifying a point mid-river that we forge towards with no regard for the fast-moving eddies encountered along the way, it is better to adopt a step-by-step approach, where we ensure our feet are securely anchored on the slippery river bed, before inching further forward.
Reacting to the ebbs and flows of the current. Showing caution rather than bravado. Learning by doing. These are the secrets to safely reaching the other side.
That is the task that lies ahead for UK monetary policy.
Our main Covid-19 liveblog is tracking all the developments in the pandemic today - here’s some of the latest news:
- A new variant of Covid, B.1.1.529, has been causing global concern after it was discovered in Hong Kong, having emerged in southern Africa. It has been detected in both South Africa and Botswana. The World Health Organization’s Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is meeting in Geneva to assess whether the variant should be designated a “variant of interest” or “variant of concern”.
- B.1.1.529 has a very unusual constellation of mutations, which are worrying because they could help it evade the body’s immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists have said.
- Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on Covid-19, said in a press briefing on Thursday: “We don’t know very much about this yet. What we do know is that this variant has a large number of mutations. And the concern is that when you have so many mutations, it can have an impact on how the virus behaves.”
- England, India, Japan, Italy, Germany and the Czech Republic are among a number of countries who have rapidly imposed a range of travel restrictions on countries including South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia.
UK transport secretary Grant Shapps described the move as “a safety-first approach”. South Africa’s foreign ministry said Britain’s decision to ban flights from South Africa because of the detection of a new Covid-19 variant “seems to have been rushed” - UK health secretary Sajid Javid has described the new variant as “of huge international concern” and “may pose substantial risk to public health.”
- Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett called a meeting with public health officials and his government to take stock of the Covid situation in the country after a case of the new variant was discovered there. “We are close to an emergency situation... we must act strongly and quickly,” Bennett said in a statement from his office. “When we have a clearer picture of the situation, we will take decisions accordingly,” he added.
- Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme the new variant will “almost certainly” make the vaccines less effective, but “it is bad news but it is not doomsday.”
More here:
Today is also Black Friday, so here’s our guide to not getting scammed when looking for bargains:
Spending has been brisk so far today.
Barclaycard Payments, which processes £1 in every £3 spent on credit and debit cards in the UK, reports that spending was 21% higher than last year between midnight and 9am, and over 5% up on pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Market summary
A quick recap.
Britain’s FTSE 100 is on track for its worst day this year, as the emergence of the B.1.1.529 variant sends markets sliding around the globe.
The blue-chip index of London’s largest listed companies is down 190 points, or 2.6%, at 7121 points, having hit a six-week low this morning.
Travel, hospitality, oil and financial stocks are among the big fallers, on concerns that B.1.1.529 could lead to widespread new pandemic restrictions and slow the economic recovery.
Airline group IAG are currently down 14%, with jet engine maker and servicer Rolls-Royce off 10%. Conference organiser Informa (-7.5%) and hotel groups Whitbread and InterContinental (both -6.3%) are also in the top FTSE 100 fallers.
Other travel companies have been hit too, with cruise operator Carnival currently down 12.7%, holiday firm TUI off 10% and easyJet down 9.9%.
The selloff came after the UK imposed travel restrictions on a group of southern African nations as a surge in cases of the highly mutated coronavirus variant.
South Africa’s rand hit a one-year low.
European markets are also sliding, with France’s CAC shedding 3.6% and Germany’s DAX down 2.9%.
New York will join the selloff in a couple of hours, with the Dow Jones industrial average down over 2% or 800 points in pre-market trading.
Oil has slumped to a two-month low, with Brent crude off 6% at $77.35 per barrel, on concerns that the global economic recovery could be hit. Industrial metal prices have also weakened.
Wall Street’s fear index, the VIX, has surged, while cryptocurrencies have also tumbled as investors ditch riskier assets. Bitcoin is down almost 9% today, putting it into a bear market (more than 20% off its recent high).
Joshua Raymond, director at financial brokerage XTB, says:
“The new Covid variant has created uncertainty in the markets today, with investor appetite shying away from risk. As a result, we have seen European stocks start the day in sell off mode with the FTSE 100 and DAX30 both falling 3%.
The main worry right now is the potential for this variant to evade the vaccines. This is the immediate concern amongst investors right now and their first move as a result has been portfolio protection.
If this variant proves more potent and threatens the success of the vaccine rollout, its hard to see a bigger threat to market stability right now.”
Updated
The pandemic is also hitting growth in Europe this autumn.
The Swiss economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 1.7% in the third quarter of this year, new GDP data shows.
That’s down from 1.8% in Q2, and below forecasts of a 2% increase.
A worsening situation at home, increased restrictions abroad and the difficulty for companies to get parts and raw materials because of jammed supply chains, means economic development is likely to decelerate further during the fourth quarter, says Reuters.
The Thanksgiving holiday is adding to the market volatility today, as the FTSE 100 heads for its worst day this year.
With many US traders away from their desks, there’s less liquidity in the markets.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, explains:
European markets have seen most of the gains made in the course of October and November evaporate overnight as investors around the globe react to the new Covid variant that has appeared in South Africa.
Early reports suggest it spreads quickly and could be much more resistant to existing vaccines. While the situation appears confined to the region for now, markets are scrambling to price in return of restrictions across the globe, taking their cue from the UK’s travel restrictions and the tighter restrictions imposed in Portugal.
This process is always a noisy and difficult one and has been exacerbated by the lack of liquidity that is always a feature of markets around Thanksgiving. Already some pockets of strength (or less weakness perhaps) have emerged, with Nasdaq futures holding up better than the rest as investors there hold their nerve, but perhaps some of the early moves today will be reversed if a more optimistic tone prevails into this afternoon and next week.
Updated
Vix index jumps as fears over coronavirus variant grow
Wall Street’s ‘fear index’, the VIX, has jumped by 40% this morning.
The Vix index, which measures the likely volatility in US stocks over the next month, rose by 8 points on Friday to 26.6, the biggest increase since early 2021.
That shows investors are worried, as they sell riskier assets such as shares and race into perceived ‘haven’ assets such as government bonds.
Wall Street was closed yesterday for Thanksgiving, but opens at 2.30pm UK time (9.30am New York) for a half-day session.
The Dow Jones industrial average is currently on track to tumble 800 points, or over 2%.
Full story: Travel and aviation shares tumble over new Covid variant fears
Shares in travel and aviation businesses, including the British Airways owner, IAG, easyJet and the aero engine maker Rolls-Royce, plummeted on Friday over fears that a new coronavirus variant described as potentially the worst so far identified could lead to a new wave of global pandemic restrictions.
The emergence of the new variant, which was identified on Tuesday and is feared to be more transmissible and poses a threat to current vaccines, prompted the government to put six southern African countries back on England’s travel red list on Thursday night.
Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini are to be suspended from midday on Friday. Officials are also reviewing a number of travel measures, including whether there should be a limited reintroduction of the use of PCR tests for arrivals.
The news prompted a sharp sell-off of travel stocks on Friday, with IAG, which also owns the airline Iberia, tumbling as much as 14% in early trading.
IAG was the biggest faller among FTSE 100 stocks alongside Rolls-Royce, which receives revenues based on the number of hours flown by aircraft that use its engines, which was down about 12%. Intercontinental Hotels and Whitbread, the owner of the Premier Inn chain, fell 7%.
The FTSE 100 tumbled by 3% to its lowest level in six weeks on Friday morning as markets across Europe and Asia-Pacific countries were hit by a wave of selling.
Here’s the full story:
A new virus variant has come like a bolt out of the blue to rattle financial markets, writes Marios Hadjikyriacos, senior investment analyst at XM.
The underlying concern is that vaccines may be less effective against this ‘Nu’ variant and it may spread easier thanks to its high number of mutations. The jury is still out though, as there isn’t much data available yet.
Of course, markets aren’t going to wait around until all the details are known. Traders are already running for cover, slashing their exposure to stocks and loading the truck with bonds.
European equity indices are down by roughly 3% while the S&P 500 is set to open 2% lower according to e-mini futures. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is holding up better. It is mostly ‘real economy’ stocks that are getting hammered, with the drop in yields also cushioning the blow in the tech complex.
Concerns over the B.1.1.529 variant could deter the Bank of England from raising interest rates next month.
The pound hit a new 11-month low this morning, falling below $1.33 against the US dollar for the first time since last December.
Market prices this morning imply a roughly 60% chance that the BoE leaves interest rates on hold at 0.1% at its next monetary policy committee meeting, on 16th December.
Cryptocurrencies are also being hammered this morning, as investors dump riskier assets for the perceived safety of bonds, the yen and the dollar.
Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, has tumbled by 7% to $54,840, its lowest since October 13th.
That’s around 20% below its record high set earlier this month:
Updated
Markets are likely to remain nervous until we know how the seriousness of the B.1.1.529 variant, says Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at Kingswood.
“Stock markets have taken a 2.5-3% hit this morning from the news of a new, more infectious and potentially more vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant in a number of countries including South Africa.
This follows hard on the heels of increasing worries about the sharp rise in infections and new Covid-restrictions being seen in Europe and means Covid is once again top of mind for markets.
The extent of the threat posed by this new variant is far from clear and equities are likely to remain skittish until there is further clarity on this which may not be for a few weeks.
Market nervousness is likely to be heightened as this latest development occurs just as the US Fed had begun talking of speeding up the pace of its tapering, paving the way potentially for a rate hike as early as the spring.”
Industrial metals prices have also been hit by worries that the new Covid-19 variant will hit growth.
Copper, seen as a gauge of the health of the global economy, has dropped over 2%, with aluminum, zinc, nickel and platinum also lower.
FTSE 100 on track for biggest fall this year
After two hours of jittery trading, the UK’s stock market is on track for its biggest fall this year.
The FTSE 100 index is down 204 points, or 2.8%, at 7105 points - slightly above its earlier lows.
That would be the FTSE 100’s worst one-day percentage drop since September 2020, with travel, hospitality, oil companies and banks all still sharply lower.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, sums up the situation:
“The drop in the oil price is the market’s way of saying it is worried about a reduction in economic activity, something which also explains the slump in metal prices.
“Markets are clearly speculating that a rapid spread of a more brutal Covid strain could once again derail the global economy. Banking stocks were also weak as they are closely tied to economic activity.
“Headlines calling it the ‘worst ever variant’ have caused investors to panic and dump shares in travel-related stocks for fear that we’re going to see tough travel restrictions once again
“This is the worst possible news for airline operators as they were just starting to see a pick-up in trading, helped by people becoming more comfortable about travelling on a plane and routes like US/UK reopening.
The selloff in energy markets is continuing, pulling US crude oil down almost 7% today.
US crude has hit a two-month low below $73 per barrel, down around $5 per barrel today.
Oil had rallied for much of this year, as the reopening of economies spurred demand for energy and fuel, but traders fear that the new B.1.1.529 variant could possibly derail that recovery.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, explains:
Oil prices are falling on fears that a new variant of the coronavirus identified in Southern Africa could force the reintroduction of travel restrictions, reducing global fuel demand.
The virus-related worries appear to be multiplying the effect of the recent release of large quantities of oil from the strategic reserves of the US and other consumer countries. This increase in supply and fears over future demand caused a drop of almost 4.5% in the price of Brent during the early Friday trading.
Ocado, the online grocery business, is a rare riser in London this morning, up around 1.5%, amid high concerns about the B.1.1.529 variant.
“Things have escalated on the Covid front quite rapidly over the last 12 hours,” points out Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.
Yesterday the new Covid variant B.1.1.529 was slowly starting to gather increasing attention but overnight it has begun to dominate markets and has caused a notable flight to quality [such as US government bonds].
Other ‘stay at home’ stocks are also rising, points out Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor.
The South African rand is continuing to slide, down 2% at a one-year low, she adds.
European stock markets have all fallen heavily too this morning, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 2.7%.
The European travel and leisure stock index hit a 10-month low, with airline stocks such as Lufthansa (-9%) sliding.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says fear has gripped the financial markets this morning, due to concerns that the new Covid strain could be far more contagious and might render vaccines less effective.
The decision by the UK government to impose stringent quarantine rules on six southern African countries within hours has severely rattled the travel and tourism industry....
The immediate way the tough restrictions were imposed was a reminder of just how tied companies’ fortunes are to snap government decisions and the latest twists in the trajectory of the virus.
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has dropped by 5.5%, following the heavy falls in crude price this morning, while BP has tumbled 6.7%.
Anxiety over the economic outlook is hitting banks too, with Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest falling 5%.
Conference organiser Informa is also in the fallers, down 7.5%.
Updated
Travel stocks plunge in nervy trading
Travel stocks are tumbling in early trading in the City, as the B.1.1.529 variant rattle markets.
IAG, which owns British Airways, fell 20% at the start of trading to their lowest level since November 2020. It’s recovered slightly, but still down 10.5%.
Rolls-Royce, which makes and services jet engines, is currently the top FTSE 100 faller, down 12%, after England imposed travel restrictions from South Africa and five neighbouring countries.
Hotel operators are sliding, with Intercontinental Hotels Group and Whitbread (which owns Premier Inns) both down over 8%. Catering group Compass has lost 7%.
On the smaller FTSE 250 index, budget easyJet has fallen by 11.5%, and cruise operator Carnival is down 15%. Holiday operator TUI has shed 13%.
SSP Group, which operates Upper Crust and Caffè Ritazza outlets at travel hubs, are down 14%.
Updated
FTSE 100 tumbles over 3%
Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has tumbled at the start of trading.
Concerns over the B.1.1.529 variant are hitting travel stocks, hospitality firms, oil companies and banks hard.
The FTSE 100 index has plunged by 243 points, or 3.3%, to 7066 points, its lowest point in six weeks, in a wave of selling.
South Africa’s stock market has fallen sharply, with the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index falling by 1.7%.
Hospitality stocks are leading the selloff, with City Lodge Hotels down nearly 20%.
Casino and hotel operator Sun International is down 8%, and Tsogo Sun Hotels has dropped 9%.
Marc Kimsey, Equity Trader at Frederick & Oliver, predicts a heavy selloff today.
We expect heavy selling action this morning as traders de-risk amid the discovery of a new covid variant.
The FTSE is called lower by some 200pts, Dow Jones futures are trading 800pts lower. Expect double-digit losses in travel and tourism stocks.
Oil stocks will also trade lower, tracking declines in underlying crude prices.
Oil falls sharply
Concerns that the B.1.1.529 variant could hit the global recovery is hammering the oil price.
Brent crude has dropped over 3% to $79.37 per barrel, while US crude has slumped by around 4% to $75.25 per barrel.
Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at brokerage OANDA, said the latest variant has sent “a wave of selling” through energy markets, on fears that mass social restrictions could be reimposed:
All we know so far is the B.1.1.529 is heavily mutated but markets are taking no chances, equities are falling, haven currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are rallying, commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are being sold, US 10-year bond yields have moved sharply lower, and oil has slumped.
Traders are acting first and asking questions later, given the lack of information about the variant, says Bloomberg:
“There is some risk off happening from Japan to Africa due to concerns around a new virus variant being found in South Africa but the good thing is countries such as U.K. are acting fast to curtail its spread,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian Research at United First Partners.
“Given that the world has gone through this before with Delta, there is already a playbook for such situations - even if the new variant overstays.”
South Africa’s rand drops to one-year low
South Africa’s rand has dropped more than 1.5% today, to a one-year low.
Concerns over the B.1.1.529 variant pushed the rand to 16.2 against the US dollar, after England introduced travel restrictions on six southern African countries.
The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars each fell to three-month troughs, as Reuters reports:
“Markets are anticipating the risk here of another global wave of infections if vaccines are ineffective,” said Moh Siong Sim, a currency analyst at the Bank of Singapore.
“Reopening hopes could be dashed.”
Selling pressure comes against an already growing backdrop of concern about COVID-19 outbreaks driving restrictions on movement and activity in Europe and beyond.
The World Health Organization will meet on Friday to assess the new variant detected in South Africa that is feared to be the worst Covid-19 variant yet identified.
The meeting will determine if the B.1.1.529 variant should be designated a variant of “interest” or of “concern”. The variant, which was identified on Tuesday, initially attracted attention because it carries an “extremely high number” of mutations.
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Introduction: Asia-Pacific markets hit by concerns over Covid variant
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Financial markets have been rattled by the emergence of the worst Covid-19 variant yet identified.
Stocks have fallen sharply in Asia-Pacific markets, the oil price has dropped, and European markets are expected to open sharply lower too.
The variant, called B.1.1.529, contains an “extremely high number” of mutations, which could help it evade the body’s immune response, scientists have said.
Those mutations mean that its spike protein looks different from the version that vaccines were designed to target.
Last night, England imposed travel restrictions on six Southern African countries including South Africa, after data presented by South African scientists revealed that the variant also appears to be more transmissible and is already present in provinces throughout the country.
South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe have all been placed on England’s travel red list.
Two cases of B.1.1.529 has also been detected in Hong Kong.
The news has sparked a sharp selloff in the markets. Asia-Pacific shares have suffered their biggest losses since August, with MSCI’s index of Asia shares outside Japan sliding 2%.
Japan’s Nikkei is down 2.5%, with travel stocks among the big fallers. Japan Airlines has tumbled by 6.5%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has dropped 2.4%, as concerns that the B.1.1.529 variant could worsen the pandemic sent investors scurrying toward the safety of bonds, the yen and the dollar.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says the emergence of B.1.1.529 has triggered “a huge sell off” in Asia-Pacific markets.
This variant which, it is understood, contains up to 30 identified mutations, has prompted WHO officials to call an emergency meeting to discuss what it means for vaccine efficacy as well as other treatments. The new strain has also prompted the UK government to implement flight bans from six African countries over concern as to what this might mean for infection rates, and other ripple out effects.
For the moment it is understood that the number of cases is small, but due to the thin liquidity levels in Asia trading as a consequence of the US holiday the reaction does appear to be outsized, with a surge into bonds, sending yields plunging, and gold higher.
Britain’s FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares is on track to tumble around 2% at the open, with losses seen across Europe.
The agenda
- 7.45am GMT: French consumer confidence for November
- 9am GMT: Italian consumer confidence for November
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