Graeme Wearden 

FTSE 100 hits pandemic high before Santa rally fades – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

The New York stock exchange trading floor, where the S&P 500 closed at a record high last night
No sign of a market meltdown in New York last night, where the S&P 500 closed at a record high Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Christmas Eve shopper numbers down 21% on 2019 levels

Last-minute shopper numbers are sharply down on their pre-pandemic levels today, although retailers are busier than last year.

Data analysts Springboard report that retail footfall this morning was 21% lower than on Christmas Eve 2019, just before the pandemic, showing the impact of the omicron variant on retailers.

But it’s 30% busier than Christmas Eve 2020 when non-essential shops in parts of the country had been forced to close, and vaccines hadn’t yet been rolled out.

Retail footfall up to noon was 13.9% higher than a week ago. But struggling high streets have only seen a 6.7% weekly jump, while retail parks are 23.6% busier and shopping centres have nearly 20% more customers.

Footfall in Central London has plunged by 30% week-on-week, reflecting that many more office workers are at home, perhaps cutting their social contact ahead of Christmas Day meet-ups.

In city centres outside London, footfall was 10% lower than last week.

Springboard says:

The increased activity in retail parks today will in part be due to trips for food and grocery products as the majority of retail parks have a food store. However, since the start of Covid, retail parks has consistently been more resilient in retaining shoppers as they are large open spaces, with large stores which make shoppers feel safer and less nervous.

Their shopper numbers throughout this period have been boosted by the presence of food stores, as despite the growth of online food shopping, it only peaked at 11% of total retail spend and is now at around 10%.

Full story: ‘Santa rally’ sees FTSE 100 hit 22-month high on Omicron optimism

The UK’s benchmark stock market index hit a 22-month high on Friday, coming within touching distance of the levels seen in February 2020 just before stock markets around the world were sent into a tailspin by the first European lockdown, my colleague Jasper Jolly reports.

The FTSE 100 hit an intra-day high of 7,403.65 points – surpassing the previous post-lockdown high that it hit last month – before slipping back one point to close at a Christmas Eve loss.

Traders on the London Stock Exchange downed tools at 12:30pm on Friday to mark Christmas Eve, while exchanges across much of Europe were closed.

Markets have been boosted in recent days by data suggesting that the latest variant of concern, Omicron, is not as severe as previously thought. British Airways owner International Airlines Group was among the biggest gainers, up 1.9%, while hotels group Intercontinental also edged up by 1.2% – both are particularly sensitive to pandemic restrictions.

The cautious optimism around Omicron has helped the FTSE 100 to gain 4.4% so far during December. That would be its best month since November 2020, when news of Pfizer’s first successful vaccine prompted a global rally.

The morning rally left the FTSE just shy of its closing point on Friday 21 February 2020 of 7,403.92 – the day Italy imposed a lockdown in the regions of Lombardy and Padua, sending markets around the world plummeting when they reopened the next Monday. The value of the FTSE 100 companies dropped by £62bn that day.

Investors look out for a “Santa rally” on markets at the end of the year, as the low volumes combine with other factors that may include end-of-year portfolio adjustments. The S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark, appeared to catch that mood with a fresh record high on Thursday, although the positive sentiment faded on the FTSE 100 on Friday.

Some late news: asset management group Apollo is acquiring UK housebuilder Miller Homes, which builds family homes in England and Scotland.

They’ve struck a deal to buy Miller from current owner Bridgepoint Group. Financial terms aren’t disclosed.

Miller is on track for a record 2021; it builds approximately 4,000 homes a year across nine regions and hopes to grow to 6,000 per year.

Government plans UK-wide Covid booster alert to mobile phones

The government is planning to send out a UK-wide mobile alert urging the public to get a Covid booster, a move mobile operators fear could spark a backlash from customers opposed to vaccinations, my colleague Mark Sweney reports.

The UK’s biggest mobile operators – EE, O2, Vodafone and Three UK – have been asked by the government to send a message on Boxing Day.

The campaign, in which mobile operators would send a message on behalf of the government to their tens of millions of customers, is understood to have not yet been given final signoff.

The message is likely to be on behalf of the NHS, with the text encouraging all adults to get an additional vaccination.

The proposed copy of the text message will say:

“Get boosted now. Every adult needs a Covid-19 booster vaccine to protect against Omicron. Get your Covid-19 vaccine or booster. See NHS website for details.”

It is understood that the mobile operators will all enable the message to be sent, but some are agreeing with reluctance given the highly politicised nature of the vaccination programme.

“Operators feel a little nervous about angering some customers because it is such a heated issue,” a telecoms industry source said. “We will make it happen, but don’t want those who don’t agree with the message to blame us.”

Here’s the full story:

Updated

The London stock market is now closed until next Wednesday (the Christmas Day and Boxing Day holidays will be marked on Monday and Tuesday).

And despite slipping back in late trading, the FTSE 100 could still post its best month in just over a year.

Here’s Reuters take:

Shares of heavyweight banks including HSBC, Barclays, Standard Chartered and Lloyds Group have all benefited after the Bank of England raised its interest rate to 0.25% from a record low of 0.1% (last week) for the first time since the pandemic.

“The FTSE 100 has not had as stellar a year as some, but the recovery of 7,400 today puts it in good stead for the year ahead,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group.

“A run at the pre-pandemic highs could still be possible if Omicron concerns can be kept under control and earnings continue to recover in the fashion they have throughout 2021.”

The mid-cap index was subdued at the close on Friday but logged its strongest week since early August, as travel and leisure stocks rose strongly in December.

Here’s a chart showing the wild swing in European gas prices this week:

The fabled Santa Rally didn’t hold across the channel either.

France’s CAC index of the 40 largest listed companies in Paris fell 0.3%, away from the record highs set in November.

Amsterdam’s AEX index lost 0.2%, while other bourses were already on holiday for Christmas.....

Santa rally fizzles out after stocks hit pandemic highs

We’re into the closing stock market auction.... and the rally has rather fizzled out.

The FTSE 100 index has dropped back from this morning’s 22-month high, to close 1 point lower at 7372 points.

That’s a bit of an anticlimax, after the blue-chip index was on the brink of recovering all its losses since the crash that began on 24th February 2020.

More companies rose than fell today (55 vs 42, with three unchanged), but heavyweight stocks such as miners Antofagasta and BHP Group lost ground in a quiet session.

But, travel and hospitality stocks did still strengthen, amid speculation that further pandemic restrictions may be avoided if Omicron proves to be milder than Delta.

Airline group IAG rose 1.86%, and Premier Inns owner Whitbread gained 1.2%.

Among smaller companies on the FTSE 250 index, holiday firm TUI jumped over 4%, easyJet gained 1.9%, and cruise group Carnival picked up 2.3%.

The Christmas spirit is slipping away in the City.. with the FTSE 100 dipping back from its earlier 22-month high.

It’s now up just 8 points on the day, or 0.1%, around 7381 points, with the half-day session nearly over.

There is some relief for energy suppliers and users - gas prices have dropped back from their record highs today.

The day-ahead UK gas prices has dropped by 18% to 246p per therm, having hit 457p per therm on Tuesday.

That’s still unusually high (the contract was around 60 per therm back in January), but might take some of the pressure off.

European gas prices have also dropped sharply today, with the benchmark contract for delivery in the first quarter of 2022 down 20%.

The government is to hold emergency meetings with the bosses of the UK’s biggest energy suppliers, after providers warned on Thursday of a “national crisis” that could lead bills to increase by more than 50% to £2,000 a year.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, is to hold virtual meetings on Monday with energy suppliers, who are pushing the government to intervene to alleviate the unprecedented rises in consumers’ bills caused by soaring wholesale gas prices.

The energy industry believes the crisis, during which more than 26 energy suppliers have gone bust at a cost of £1.8bn to date, could be made more manageable if the government axed the 5% VAT on bills imposed when the UK was part of the European Union.

More here:

FTSE 100 touches pandemic high

The FTSE 100 has now hit its highest level since the markets began to crash in late February 2020.

The blue-chip index has touched 7403.65 points, a new 22-month high. That’s just over the previous pandemic high set in November 2021, in today’s thin pre-Christmas trading.

It’s a broad rally, with 75 of the hundred companies on the index up today.

Travel and hospitality companies are still doing well, with InterContinental Hotels (+2%) now the top riser.

Updated

Stock markets in Europe and Asia have cemented gains in light holiday trade today, while the safe-haven dollar eased on signs the Omicron variant would not significantly derail global economic growth, Reuters reports.

The greenback was set for its worst week in four months while other risk-friendly assets from bitcoin to the Australian dollar held onto their recent gains, buoyed by ebbing concerns over the severity of the new Covid-19 variant.

A top European equity benchmark hovered around one month highs after a week of gains and the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.1%, after a record closing high for the S&P 500 on Thursday.

Even though it is highly infectious, studies have shown how Omicron is less severe than the Delta strain, fuelling optimism about a limited fallout from new restrictions, and setting the MSCI world equity index for a 2% weekly gain.

Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia in Milan, said:

“The most popular motivation (for the rally) is the growing perception that Omicron is less lethal. This certainty helped risk appetite return, but self-fulfilling expectations of Christmas rallies and reduced liquidity also came in play.”

“I still think the news on Omicron is good, but not as good as the market is taking it. So it really depends on how much the contagions will fly.”

The FTSE 100 is currently on track for its best month in just over a year.

The blue-chip index has gained 4.8% during December, as stocks recovered from their slump in late November when Omicron fears first rocked markets.

That would be its best month since November 2020, when news of Pfizer’s successful vaccine prompted a global rally.

Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at ThinkMarket, says investors should use the long weekend to assess the risks facing the economy and markets.

Chief among those risks are high levels of inflation and potentially weaker economic growth, owing to the rapid spread of omicron triggering waves of restrictions around the world.

Judging by the stock market rally this week, it appears as though investors are still confident that the ongoing recovery from the pandemic recession can survive the omicron wave. Sentiment has been lifted by several scientific studies showing that omicron is less severe than previous mutations.

The new variant has also introduced a new element of uncertainty as to whether central banks will be able to follow up with more rate rises if the economic recovery falters.

Updated

Cities are attracting more property hunters with demand for flats outstripping that of houses in the autumn, the latest sign that the pandemic-fuelled “race for space” could be waning.

UK property prices hit record levels during the pandemic as factors including the rise of home and flexible working fuelled a buying boom outside cities.

However, as staff returned to offices with flexible and hybrid working patterns through the autumn – prior to the emergence of Omicron – interest in flats has surged.

“When the housing market reopened in May, there was an immediate rush for room from buyers to look farther afield from the capital,” said Tim Bannister, the director of property data at the property portal Rightmove.

“However, in recent months we’ve seen higher demand to live near London, with buyer inquiries returning towards pre-pandemic levels. This is happening quicker than some will have anticipated, and is likely driven by many businesses encouraging a hybrid, rather than fully remote working model.”

Rightmove said that flats have become the most in-demand property type among prospective buyers, supplanting the popularity of houses throughout the pandemic.

More here:

Holiday firm TUI (+3%), cruise operator Carnival (+2.8%) and budget airline easyJet (+2%) are also higher this morning, after several research studies this week suggested the effects of the Omicron coronavirus variant were less severe than Delta.

But, experts have warned that this may make no change in the level of infection, due to the surge in Omicron cases.

My colleague Richard Adams explains:

In the UK, the huge surge in cases – with another 119,789 new infections reported on Thursday – means that even if only a small proportion of people with Covid need to attend hospital, it could cause difficulties for the NHS.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor at the University of Edinburgh and one of the co-authors of the Scotland study, said the weight of new research meant that projections would be less pessimistic, although Omicron’s rapid spread meant there were still dangers ahead.

“It’s good but it doesn’t get us out of the woods. Severity of infection is clearly very important but it is only one factor in terms of the public health burden,” Woolhouse said, speaking in a personal capacity.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, points out that trading volumes are rather thin this morning, with many investors clocking off for Christmas:

With US, German, Italian and Swiss markets closed, the FTSE 100 has opened with a small move to the upside amid much thinner than normal volumes as the festive week rounds up and on risk-on sentiment.

The UK index is enjoying its fourth day of gains, trading at six-week highs and inching closer to the next major resistance hurdle at 7,400. It is better late than never for the Santa rally, which helped drive gains for US indices yesterday with the S&P 500 closing at a record high up 2.27% on the week while tech outperformed with the Nasdaq closing the week up 3.19%.”

FTSE 100 inches towards pandemic high

Stocks are creeping higher in London, lifting the FTSE 100 nearer to its pandemic high.

The blue-chip index is now up 21 points, or 0.3%, at 7394 - putting November’s 20-month high of 7402.68 points in sight.

The Footsie, which contains the hundred largest companies listed in London, has rallied by over 14% this year, helped by hopes of economic recovery from the pandemic.

But it’s still below its pre-Covid levels, unlike US and other European indices, as the FTSE 100 suffers from a lack of major tech companies listed in the City.

Pharmaceuticals group Hikma (+1.8%) is now the top riser, followed by BA parent company IAG (+1.7%), online grocery business Ocado (+1.5%), and Premier Inns owner Whitbread.

Updated

Tiz the season...to test your knowledge with the Guardian’s Business Christmas Quiz. Good luck!

Updated

Consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser has agreed the sale of skincare brand E45 for £200m, as it shifts its focus to higher growth areas.

The Slough-based company, which also owns brand including Dettol and Durex, told investors this morning that it is set to sell the business to Swedish group Karo Pharma.

E45 cream, which can soothe dry and itching skin and help with eczema, was created in 1952 by Reckitt subsidiary Crookes Healthcare and was initially only available in hospitals. Increased demand and positive results saw the brand move into traditional retail.

In the financial year to December 2020, the E45 brand and related sub-brands had a combined net revenue of £43m.

The proposed sale is the latest move by Reckitt to shake up its portfolio in a bid to focus on higher growth areas of its operations. Earlier this year it sold its infant formula and child nutrition business in China and its Scholl foot treatment brand.

Reckitt benefitted from higher sales of Strepsils and Nurofen this autumn, as the lifting of global lockdowns led to more people catching coughs, colds and flu. But it has also been hit by rising costs due to the supply chain inflation.

Updated

It’s not much of a rally.. but the UK’s blue-chip shares have opened a little higher in today’s shortened session.

The FTSE 100 is up 7 points, or 0.1%, at 7380 points, nudging towards November’s 21-month highs.

Airline group IAG, which owns British Airways, is the top riser, up 1.6%, with conference organiser Informa rising 1% and hotel operator Whitbread 0.9% higher.

Updated

Selfridges sale one more chapter in luxury brand’s rollercoaster history

The Selfridges deal is the latest instalment of a rollercoaster history for the brand founded by a retail legend, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler writes:

After more than 20 years rising through the ranks of the Marshall Field’s store in Chicago, in 1906 the US entrepreneur Harry Gordon Selfridge arrived in the UK with one intention: to found a great department store.

By some accounts, he was tempted to the UK by Liverpudlian Samuel J Waring Jr, who had built up a string of furnishings stores in London and wanted someone to run a neighbouring shop to his new Waring and Gillow outlet on Oxford Street.

It was initially intended to be called Selfridge-Waring store, but Selfridge took control when his partner hit financial difficulties and the new store opened in March 1909 under his name alone.

From the start, Selfridge embraced retail theatre and was determined his store would be “a civic centre, where friends can meet and buying is only a secondary consideration”. On the opening day, which drew enormous crowds, the store dazzled shoppers with live music, abundant floral displays and copious lighting in its airy halls.

The store sold a huge range of goods but, out of respect for his early business partner, not food or furnishings. It housed a library, a rest room for ladies, a picture gallery and a restaurant linked to a roof garden.

Selfridges set a new benchmark for UK department stores, ditching the tradition of housing staff above the shop and opting for large modern window displays more akin to advertising than the practice of piling up as many goods as possible.

When the store was awarded one of English Heritage’s blue plaques in 2003, the charity said: “It is largely thanks to Selfridge that Oxford Street remains the commercial heart of the West End.”.

More here:

Selfridges sold to Thai and Austrian groups in £4bn deal

The big news of the morning is that Selfridges, the UK-based department store chain, has been acquired in a £4bn deal by Thai conglomerate Central Group and Signa, an Austrian real estate group.

The deal will see the return of the luxury department store’s former boss Vittorio Radice.

The firms have bought the group from Canada’s Weston family, and are thought to have beaten off rival bids from the Qatar Investment Authority, which owns Harrods, and Lane Crawford, a Hong Kong-based department store owner.

The Thai group, which began with one store in Bangkok run by Tiang Chirathivat in the 1950s, last year listed part of the business on the Thai stock exchange, and has other interests in convenience stores, shopping centres and hotels. Signa is owned and run by René Benko, one of Austria’s richest men.

The deal with the Westons includes Selfridges’ four UK stores – in London, Birmingham and two in Manchester – as well as Brown Thomas and Arnotts in Ireland and De Bijenkorf in the Netherlands. It also covers about £2bn of the chain’s prime property assets, including the freehold of its listed Oxford Street flagship store in London.

Here’s the full story:

Updated

Introduction: Santa rally drove S&P 500 to record high

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Just one trading day in the City until Christmas, and investors are straining to see signs of the fabled Santa Rally.

US stocks rallied last night, as traders took heart from mounting evidence that the Omicron variant of coronavirus is milder. The S&P 500 closed at a record high - it’s 68th this year - and European markets staged their own rally on Thursday.

As Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, told Morningstar:

“Today, it is about economic optimism that this variant is not going to be as bad as delta and original virus.”

Last night, a UK government study showed that the risk of being admitted to hospital is up to 70% less for people with Omicron compared to those infected with Delta.

Australia’s share market has joined the festive cheer, with the ASX index rising 0.4% in the Christmas Eve session, with financial stocks, mining and gas companies and tech among the gainers.

The markets have a habit of rallying around Christmas time (news depending...), and Jeffrey Halley of OANDA says it has arrived:

Thankfully, reporters have stopped asking me if we will get a Santa Claus rally in stock markets, as it has well and truly arrived.

Wall Street rose again overnight after a strong procession on US data and markets convincing themselves even more, that omicron is a mildly symptomatic storm in a teacup.

But in the UK, concerns about rising financial distress on the high street and at hospitality firms is hitting the mood.

My colleague Sarah Butler explains:

More than 35,000 British retailers and 20,000 bars and restaurants are facing significant financial distress, according to new data, while shoppers are forecast to spend almost a quarter less in physical stores this Boxing Day than before the pandemic.

If fashion and footwear shops, furniture businesses and other “non-essential” retailers are allowed to remain open from 26 December, £3.94bn is expected to be spent in stores and online that day, 10% less than before the pandemic and 1% lower than last year.

Spending in physical stores alone is expected to fall by 23% compared with 2019 as many shoppers avoid high streets, shopping centres and retail parks amid fears over the Omicron variant of coronavirus.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 hit a six-week closing high, near to its highest since the pandemic crash in March.

But it could be a subdued start today, with the blue-chip index expected to dip a little. It could be a quiet session, with trading finishing early at lunchtime (hurrah).

 

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