Closing post
That’s all for today - here’s the main stories, starting with the UK’s housing market:
The latest on Elon Musk...
The ongoing travel disruption:
And in other news:
We’re back tomorrow for the final day of the year, with the London stock market opening for a half day session. Goodnight! GW
In the City, shares have dropped back from yesterday’s 22-month highs.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 index has closed 18 points lower at 7403, down 0.25% today.
Electrical rentals business Ashtead led the fallers, down 1.8% - although it has been the best-performing Footsie stock this year. Housebuilder Berkeley Group (-1.5%), the London Stock Exchange (-1.5%) and telecoms group BT (-1.2%) followed.
Tesla recalls half a million cars in US over rearview camera and trunk defects
Tesla has recalled close to half a million vehicles in the US to fix rearview camera and trunk issues that the regulators said could increase the risk of crashes.
The electric vehicle manufacturer is recalling 356,309 of its 2017-2020 Model 3 vehicles to address rearview camera issues and 119,009 of its Model S vehicles due to front hood problems.
Opening and closing the trunk could damage the cables attaching the rearview mirror on the Model 3, according to filings issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The Model S recall relates to concerns about latches securing the vehicle’s front trunk (known as the frunk).
The NHTSA said:
“Unavailability of the rearview camera display may affect the driver’s rear view and increase the risk of a collision.”
Tesla is not aware of any crashes, injuries, or deaths related to the issues with the recalled vehicles, the NHTSA said, and the company estimates that only 1% of the Model 3 vehicles will display the defect, compared to 14% of the recalled Model S vehicles.
Europe’s energy crisis has eased this week, thanks to warmer weather and a flotilla of tankers carrying natural gas heading over from the US:
Germany’s DAX index has closed for the year, having gained almost 16% after a strong year for stocks.
The DAX hit a series of record highs this year, before easing back from its most recent peak in November after Omicron caused markets to wobble.
That roughly matches the UK’s performance (the FTSE 100 has gained about 15%), but lags Paris’s 29% surge.
British Airways has scrapped flights to Hong Kong until March, Bloomberg reports, as the territory further tightens aircrew quarantine restrictions to contain the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant.
The earliest available flights from London to Hong Kong are from March 1, according to a search on the carrier’s website. The carrier had previously temporarily suspended services to Hong Kong at the end of November after one employee tested positive for Covid-19 and staff were sent into quarantine.
On Wednesday, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways said it will make “significant” changes to its flight schedule from now through the first quarter of 2022, and only operate a skeletal service in January.
A spokesman for BA said.
“Like other airlines, due to the continuing coronavirus pandemic we are operating a reduced and dynamic schedule. We apologize to customers whose travel plans are disrupted.”
Updated
Back on Wall Street, the S&P 500 index has hit a new record high.
The US stock index has had a very strong year, ralling by 28% during 2021 thanks to America’s economic recovery, solid corporate profits, and economic and fiscal stimulus.
Victoria Beckham’s fashion and beauty business remained lossmaking in 2020, as the former pop star, her husband David and other shareholders pumped in millions of pounds to keep it afloat during the pandemic.
Sales fell 6% compared with a year earlier to £36m, according to accounts filed for Victoria Beckham Holdings (VBH), which owns the former Spice Girls member’s fashion business, as well as the majority stake in her beauty range, which launched in 2019.
However, the company’s £6.8m pre-tax loss was less than half the £15.6m loss for 2019, which the company attributed to better management of its supply chain, and a new business model whereby the brand sold more of its goods directly to consumers.
Dow hits record high after jobless claims report
On Wall Street, shares have hit fresh record highs after today’s US jobless claims report showed that layoffs remain low.
The Dow Jones industrial average of 30 large US companies has jumped by 140 points, or 0.4%, to 36,628 points, as stocks end a strong year with fresh gains.
Chemicals company Dow Inc (+1%) is the top riser, followed by American Express (0.9%), JP Morgan (0.8%) and Walt Disney (0.8%).
Inflation has accelerated in Spain, with prices rising at the fastest pace in around 30 years.
Spanish consumer prices in December rose 6.7% from the same month last year, flash data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed this morning.
That’s up from 5.5% in November, and rather higher than the 5.7% rate expected by economists. Prices rose by 1.3% in December alone.
Electricity fees drove the annual price index, as Europe’s energy crisis hit families, with the price of food also rising significantly in 2021.
The drop in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits (see last post) is more evidence that the US job market remains strong in the aftermath of last year’s coronavirus recession, says Associated Press:
The weekly claims numbers, a proxy for layoffs, have fallen steadily most of the year. Employers are reluctant to let workers go at a time when it’s so tough to find replacements. The United States had a near-record 11 million job openings in October, and 4.2 million Americans quit their jobs — just off September’s record 4.4 million — because there are so many opportunities.
The job market has bounced back from last year’s brief but intense coronavirus recession. When COVID hit, governments ordered lockdowns, consumers hunkered down at home and many businesses closed or cut back hours. Employers slashed more than 22 million jobs in March and April 2020, and the unemployment rate rocketed to 14.8%.
But massive government spending — and eventually the rollout of vaccines — brought the economy back. Employers have added 18.5 million jobs since April 2020, still leaving the U.S. still 3.9 million jobs short of what it had before the pandemic. The December jobs report, out next week, is expected to show that the economy generated another 374,000 jobs this month.
US jobless claims remain strong
Just in: The US jobs market remains strong, despite the rise in omicron cases.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit fell to 198,000 last week, down from 206,000 the week before.
That’s a little lower than forecast, and below the number of jobless claims before Covid. Quite a change compared with early in the pandemic, when the initial claims total hit 6 million.
The number of Americans receiving at least two weeks of unemployment support returned to pre-pandemic levels too. The ‘insured unemployment’ total fell by 140,000 to 1,716,000 people, the lowest since March 7, 2020, just before the first lockdowns.
The biggest shake-up to the insurance industry for decades takes place on Saturday, when insurers will be banned from quoting policyholders a higher price to renew their home or motor insurance than they would offer a new customer.
After years of complaints that customers who regularly switched insurer were paying significantly lower premiums than those who renewed, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said they must be offered the same price.
The move is expected to be bad news for households that chase the lowest new-customer premiums annually.
However, the FCA expects it to result in lower renewals for loyal customers who renew automatically, typically saving them £120 a year each...
Elon Musk has rejected criticisms that his SpaceX company is taking up too much room in space, by dominating radio frequencies and orbital slots.
In an interview published by the Financial Times, Musk insisted that SpaceX’s network of tens of thousands of low-orbiting “Starlink” satellites wasn’t crowding out other operators, saying:
“Space is just extremely enormous, and satellites are very tiny.
This is not some situation where we’re effectively blocking others in any way. We’ve not blocked anyone from doing anything, nor do we expect to.”
Josef Aschbacher, head of the European Space Agency, said earlier this month that Musk was “making the rules” in space. Aschbacher called for coordinated action from the EU and other countries to ensure that SpaceX’s constellation did not prevent other countries or companies from launching their own satellites.
Musk compared the number of satellites with the 2bn vehicles on the Earth’s surface, suggesting there was room for “tens of billions” of satellites. The FT cited an astrophysicist disputing that claim on the grounds that satellites need large gaps to be able to safely avoid collisions.
More here:
Restrictions to curb a Covid-19 outbreak in China’s technogy hub Xi’an could cause further supply chain disruption.
The city of 13m people is under lockdown, while multiple rounds of tests have been carried out, with over 100 new Covid-19 cases reported today.
All non-essential businesses in Xi’an have been closed, while residents are barred from leaving their houses except to buy living necessities every other day or for emergencies.
Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology, two of the world’s largest memory chip makers, have said their chip manufacturing bases in the area will be affected, potentially adding to the existing semiconductor shortages.
Samsung says it will “temporarily adjust operations” at its Xian manufacturing facilities which produces NAND flash memory chips, used for data storage in data centres, smartphones and other tech gadgets. It pledged to take all necessary steps to ensure customers are not affected.
Micron said it was also looking to source memory chips from other sources:
“We are tapping our global supply chain, including our subcontractor partners, to help service our customers for these DRAM products.
“We project that these efforts will allow us to meet most of our customer demand, however there may be some near-term delays as we activate our network,”
Updated
Santander races to claw back £130m after Christmas Day blunder
Christmas is a time for giving. But Santander has taken the festive spirit too far.
The high street bank is scrambling to recover £130m it accidentally paid out to tens of thousands of people and businesses on Christmas Day, in a remarkable blunder.
Patrick Hosking of The Times has the details:
About 75,000 people and companies in receipt of normal one-off or regular payments from 2,000 businesses with accounts at Santander were inadvertently paid a second time.
Those finding an unexpected Christmas bonus in their accounts included employees of the businesses and their suppliers.
The second payment was made from Santander’s own reserves, leaving the bank significantly out of pocket, but its own customers unaffected.
Recovering the money will not be simple because it has gone to the accounts of customers of dozens of other banks, which are now being asked to retrieve the money on Santander’s behalf.
A Santander spokesman says that:
“We’re sorry that, due to a technical issue, some payments from our corporate clients were incorrectly duplicated on the recipients’ accounts.
“None of our clients were at any point left out of pocket as a result and we will be working hard with many banks across the UK to recover the duplicated transactions over the coming days.”
Account holders at Barclays, HSBC NatWest, Co-operative Bank and Virgin Money are among those affected, The Times says.
The banks can retrieve the cash... but some are said to be worried that it may already have been spent, so clawing it back could push customers into overdrafts.
Japan’s Topix index, which covers a broader range of companies than the benchmark Nikkei, had a strong year too.
The Topix jumped by 10.4% this year, and also finished at its highest year-end close since 1989.
Japan's Nikkei marks best year-end close since 1980s bubble
Back in the markets, Japan’s Nikkei share index has recorded its highest year-end closing level in 32 years.
Today was the final trading session in Tokyo, where the Nikkei 225 posted a 4.91% rise for 2021.
After a small dip today, it closed at 28,791.71 points, the best finish to a year since 1989, late in Japan’s stock market bubble.
The Nikkei was lifted by fiscal and monetary stimulus, and optimism for a post-pandemic economic recovery which drove global stocks to record highs in 2021. Back in September, the Nikkei hit a 31-year high of 30,670.10.
Analysts expect the Nikkei to keep rising next year, Reuters reports:
“The backdrop for stocks looks good next year,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, predicting the Nikkei will top 30,000 by end-March.
“Omicron looks like it won’t result in a big shock for markets (and) investors don’t seem concerned about the prospect of two or three rate hikes by the Federal Reserve next year.”
However, the Nikkei is still shy of its record high of 38,957 points set in 1989, before the market crashed:
Pulling together a deposit is the biggest challenge for many new housebuyers, Nationwide’s report shows.
A 20% deposit in London is now nearly £88,000 (based on the average first time buyer house price) -- that’s 183% of average annual gross income in the capital.
That’s up from 130% of income a decade ago, and works out at an extra £36,000 -- a high hurdle, especially as most buyers will be paying rent.
While all regions have seen an increase in their deposit requirements, the rises are much more pronounced for the South and Midlands, Nationwide adds.
The Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi Global has reported widening losses and a decline in third-quarter revenue, after its domestic business took a hit from a regulatory crackdown by Beijing.
The company said operating losses hit $6.3bn (£4.68bn) in the nine months to the end of September, while revenue fell nearly 2% in its third quarter.
Chinese authorities have come down hard on Didi since its New York Stock exchange listing in June, demanding that it take down its software from mobile app stores while the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) investigated its handling of customer data.
The restriction came as a blow for Didi – co-founded in 2012 by former Alibaba employee Will Wei Cheng and backed by SoftBank Group – which was the dominant ride-hailing company in China. The company now faces stiff competition from ride-hailing services by automakers Geely and SAIC Motor.
Retailers are likely to increase their prices early next year, intensifying the cost of living squeeze on households.
The trend is already underway, with the UK branch of IKEA announcing price increases; due to higher costs across the supply chain, including raw materials, transport and logistics.
More will follow in 2022, as analysts at Saxo Bank explain:
Most companies cannot absorb the costs anymore and will pass them on to consumers. In the case of the United Kingdom, the situation is even worse due to post-Brexit supply chain disruptions. In these circumstances, it is unlikely that inflation will significantly move downward in the short term, at least.
The London-based think tank the Resolution Foundation estimates that UK households will face a £1,200 hit to their budget on average in 2022 due to higher inflation, soaring energy prices and big tax rise to come in April. Supply chain disruptions will also remain.
The president of the UK Food and Drink Federation, Ian Wright, indicated that it is likely UK consumers will not find the great variety of products they used to in supermarkets in the post-Brexit era.
Tackle pay stagnation to help Britons with soaring living costs, urges TUC
British workers facing soaring costs of living in 2022 need a bigger pay rise after a “lost decade” of wage growth under Conservative-led governments, the head of the Trades Union Congress has said.
In her new year’s message, Frances O’Grady urged ministers to take immediate steps to encourage faster pay growth across the British economy amid soaring energy bills and other costs.
Issuing a challenge to Boris Johnson, O’Grady warned his government could not “sit this wages crisis out” after cutting benefits and announcing plans for a tax raid on workers next year, saying:
“After decades of real wage cuts and falling living standards, no one can seriously say working people don’t deserve a pay rise.”
More here:
FTSE 100 dips from 22-month high as travel stocks fall
In the City, stocks have dipped back from their highest levels in 22 months.
The FTSE 100 is down 10 points at 7410, in another quiet session with many investors having downed tools until the new year. Airline group IAG (-2%) is the top faller, as Omicron case numbers continue to surge globally.
Gambling groups Flutter (-1.4%) and Entain (-1%), and telecome group BT (-1.6%) are also lower.
The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 index is flat, with budget airline Wizz Air (-1.5%) and transport group National Express (-1.2%) lower.
Pent-up demand could keep house prices high in 2022, argues Gareth Lewis, commercial director of property lender MT Finance:
“Covid focused the minds of buyers like nothing else, persuading people to move further out of urban centres in the search for more space, aided by remarkably low mortgage rates. Unsurprisingly, house prices performed most strongly in Wales, the north of England and the south-west as working patterns changed. However, affordability in London remains incredibly stretched, making it very difficult for a young workforce to buy in the capital.
Although many people have made their move, there is still plenty of pent-up demand, which will keep property prices high. An easing of stamp duty for downsizers looks increasingly necessary in order to encourage them to move, free up larger family homes and keep property price growth at a more manageable level.”
North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf reports that activity slowed this month.
Potential buyers digested the rise in UK interest rates, while the Omicron variant deterred some homeowners from putting their homes on the market:
’The Nationwide survey not only demonstrates the underlying strength of the market after the withdrawal of the stamp duty holiday and furlough but gives a broad hint of the direction of travel for 2022.
‘We are seeing much the same at the sharp end, too, including in the run up to Christmas with rising Omicron cases, inflation and interest rates resulting in reduced activity but not a significant correction.
‘Further Covid restrictions will only lead to a build-up of more pent-up demand. But momentum will continue to be compromised by lack of supply as we have found sellers tend to be more put off than buyers because they are concerned about having people in their homes for viewings.’
Getting on the housing ladder has become even harder in the last decade.
Housing affordability has worsened in most UK regions since 2011, meaning new buyers need to stretch themselves even more to buy their first house, Nationwide’s house price report shows.
Nationwide calculated affordability by working out where in the income distribution a prospective purchaser would sit if they were purchasing the typical first-time buyer property in each region, with a 20% deposit and borrowing four times their income.
In East Anglia and the East Midlands the typical buyer has moved from the 50th percentile to the 70th percentile.
Those in the South East and South West now need to be in the top 80th, from the 60th a decade ago, while hypothetical first-time buyers in London need to be in the 90th percentile.
This means even more people are priced out of the market, or need to borrow a greater multiple of their income to buy a home - putting them at greater risk if interest rates rise, or their incomes fall.
Or, they could get a helping hand from family (which may not be an option for those from less wealthy backgrounds).
Wales strongest performing region in 2021, London the weakest
Wales was the strongest performing region in 2021, with prices up 15.8% year-on-year as the pandemic and the rise in home working encouraged people to leave large cities and move to more rural areas.
This is the first time since Nationwide’s regional series began in 1973 that Wales has ended the year as the top performing region.
London was the weakest-performing region, with prices up 4.2% in the year.
Prices rose by 12.1% in Northern Ireland, by 10.1% in Scotland, and by 9.0% in England.
Nationwide says:
“The South West was the strongest performing English region, with annual price growth of 11.5%, the largest calendar year increase in the region since 2004.
This was closely followed by the Outer South East, which saw annual price growth increase to 11.3%, from 9.8% the previous quarter. The Outer South East, which includes cities such as Brighton, Southampton and Oxford, was also one of the strongest English regions in 2021.
London was again the weakest performer, with annual growth remaining at 4.2%. London was the only UK region to see lower annual price growth in 2021 than in 2020, as shown in the table below.
The North West saw the strongest growth of the regions in northern England, with annual price growth of 11.2%, similar to the previous quarter.
Nationwide: housing market likely to slow next year
After such a strong year, house price growth is likely to slow in 2022, Nationwide says.
House prices affordability has worsened since the pandemic began - with the stamp duty holiday having boosted prices over the last year, before it ended in September.
Prices could also weaken if unemployment rises - with omicron already hurting hospitality businesses badly over the crucial Christmas break.
But the outlook is uncertain, as chief economist Robert Gardner explains:
“It appears likely that the housing market will slow next year, since the stamp duty holiday encouraged many to bring forward their house purchase in order to avoid additional tax. The Omicron variant could reinforce the slowdown if it leads to a weaker labour market.
Even if wider economic conditions remain resilient, higher interest rates are likely to exert a cooling influence. Indeed, house price growth has outpaced income growth by a significant margin over the past 18 months and, as a result, housing affordability is already less favourable than before the pandemic struck.
However, the outlook remains extremely uncertain. The strength of the market surprised in 2021 and could do so again in the year ahead. The market still has significant momentum and shifts in housing preferences as a result of the pandemic could continue to support activity and price growth. Indeed, the Omicron variant could serve to reinforce the shift in preferences in the near term.
Introduction: 2021 was strongest calendar year for house price growth since 2006
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
UK house prices have posted their strongest year since 2006, thanks to high demand, the stamp duty tax break, and a shortage of homes on the market.
Lender Nationwide has reported that annual house price growth increased to 10.4% in December, up from 10.0% in November. That’s the fastest growth in a calendar year since 2006.
Prices jumped by 1% in December. The price of a typical UK home has now hit £254,822 for the first time on Nationwide’s index. That’s an increase of nearly £24,000 over the year; the largest rise seen in a single year, in cash terms.
Prices are now 16% higher than before the pandemic struck in early 2020, says Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist.
“Demand has remained strong in recent months, despite the end of the stamp duty holiday at the end of September.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase have continued to run above pre-pandemic levels, despite the surge in activity seen earlier in the year. Indeed, in the first 11 months of 2021 the total number of property transactions was almost 30% higher than over the same period of 2019.
At the same time, the stock of homes on the market has remained extremely low throughout the year, which has contributed to the robust pace of price growth.
Separate data from Halifax overnight has shown that the “race for space” between homebuyers has pushed up prices in some UK towns by about a fifth this year, with Taunton topping a list of areas with the biggest increases.
Also coming up today
European stock markets are set for a subdued start, as the surge in Omicron cases weighs on investors’ minds.
Yesterday, the UK’s FTSE 100 hit a 22-month high, finally returning to its levels before the crash in February 2020 as trading resumed after the Christmas break.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index hit its 70th record close of 2021, as the traditional Santa Rally lifted stocks.
Naeem Aslam of Avatrade says:
Futures in the United States are trading flat, while those in Europe are down, and major stock market indices are on track to end the year on a high note. Investors are pleased that Santa Claus blessed the markets this year, allowing the Dow and S&P 500 to close yesterday’s session at all-time highs.
Overall, investors are overjoyed that we are ending 2021 on a high note after a brutal 2020. Although the appearance of the Omicron variant initially alarmed investors, the situation is now likely under control thanks to breakthrough COVID-19 vaccinations and a better understanding of the virus.
However, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tapering of quantitative easing measures to keep inflation in check could be a major factor driving volatility in stock markets in 2022.
The final US weekly jobless claims data of 2021 will show the health of America’s labour market.
The agenda
- 7am GMT: Nationwide house price index for December
- 8am GMT: Spanish inflation data for December
- 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless data
Updated