The Conservative leadership campaign has seen the party jettison large parts of the platform it was elected on in 2019 – not least Boris Johnson’s pledge to level up the country – tacking rightwards on the economy and issues such as the environment and education. Should Conservatives be concerned that the rightward lurch of their party threatens its appeal at the next election to both new and traditional supporters?
Younger, more educated voters have been moving out of London in their droves to the capital’s commuter belt for some time, tilting the demographic makeup of numerous seats. Many marginal constituencies in the south-east – places such as Esher and Walton and Winchester – are home to large numbers of graduates and professionals, groups that once upon a time were reliable Conservative voters. The party can no longer take these voters for granted, especially those of working age. Not only are they more likely to be Remainers but they also tend to hold more socially liberal attitudes on issues such as immigration and the environment, and are less likely to be sympathetic to anti-woke, anti-green posturing.
The Conservatives hold 21 seats across the south (including London) with majorities smaller than 10,000 that also voted remain. In 11 of these, Labour is the main challenger, while the Liberal Democrats are the second party in 10 others. Many of these seats could come under threat if the new PM does not tack back towards the centre ground after the leadership contest is over.
At the same time, Truss’s focus on tax cuts, and her reluctance to commit to help people with rising fuel bills in winter, threaten an important part of the party’s electoral coalition. First-time Conservative voters in former industrial towns in the Midlands and north of England tend to hold more leftwing attitudes on public spending and redistribution than their counterparts in the south. As the country’s economic position worsens in the autumn, many of these voters will be looking for the government to intervene. Tax cuts will be low on the agenda for most voters, and if expectations about tackling regional inequalities end in disappointment, there is a risk that many of the people who lent their vote to the Tories in 2019 will return to Labour at the next election. This could put many of the 45 “red wall” seats lost to the Conservatives back in play.
Regardless of the outcome of the leadership contest, the Conservative party seems set to double down on its culture-war agenda while pushing rightwards on the economy.
If the new PM persists with this course, especially in the context of a serious economic crisis, the party is in deep danger of losing seats both in its southern heartlands and in the red wall at the next election.
Will Jennings is professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southampton
