Australian farmers are locking in surging grain prices ahead of their imminent harvest after Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian ports and a decision by the Kremlin to pull out of the Black Sea grain deal to allow agricultural exports caused a rally.

The disruption to the major wheat-producing Black Sea region could spell disaster for countries already reeling from rising living costs, conflict and drought, especially in the Horn of Africa.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said that would “strike a blow to people in need everywhere”.

But for many Australian grain growers, it could represent a fourth consecutive year of healthy harvests backed by strong prices for wheat and other grains.

“It’s important to tie in the caveat of not being too jolly because horrendous things are happening right now in the Black Sea,” said Rabobank grains analyst Dennis Voznesenski.

“But it could lead to another year of possibly elevated pricing and good production.”

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Australia is a major wheat producer and exporter as is Ukraine.

Most Australian farmers had a torrid time during the drought from 2017 to early 2020, before recording three stellar grain harvests, including a record result last year.

Australian farms tend to harvest their main grain crops from late October, at which stage they start locking in most of their sales contracts. But they can forward-sell some of the anticipated harvest and use mechanisms such as the futures markets to lock in high prices.

Western Australian grains farmer Mark Fowler said the industry was watching developments in Ukraine closely.

“I’ve spoken to a lot of people who have taken some price protection; I’ve sold canola in the last few days when the prices were up,” said Fowler, who is the WAFarmers Grains Council president.

Tracy Blackburn, who helps run an agricultural operation that includes wheat and other grains in central New South Wales, said the upheaval in the Black Sea should lead to more demand for Australian grain.

“The flow-on is that demand for Australian grain will increase because buyers can actually source it from here and that should give things a kick-along,” Blackburn said.

Conditions were generally dry in Australia during planting earlier this year. Prices were also subdued before Russia withdrew from an agreement on 17 July that had allowed safe passage of grain vessels from Ukraine’s deep seaports.

Russia has carried out heavy airstrikes on Ukraine’s grain stores and port infrastructure after the Kremlin’s decision to terminate the UN-brokered Black Sea grain initiative.

Ukrainian exporters will now need to rely on lower-capacity road, river and rail routes to deliver their grain, unless they can negotiate a safe route for grain vessels.

Global wheat prices were trading at around US$7.70 a bushel on Friday, up more by than 10% in a week. This represents a historically strong price, although still lower than the US$12 a bushel when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

While some grain-producing areas in Australia are experiencing ongoing dry conditions, farmers are mostly enjoying better-than-expected growing conditions than they did during planting.

In export-focused Western Australia, good rainfall in early June has put the crop back on track for a strong year, according to the state’s grain industry association.

Across Australia, wheat production from the next harvest is forecast to reach about 30m tonnes, well above long-term averages.