Time to wrap up…

The US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, a sign the labor market continued strong amid high interest rates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday.

The number of May jobs was far higher than the 190,000 economists had expected and topped April’s gains, when a revised 165,000 jobs were added to the economy. The report offered a mixed view of the jobs market. The unemployment rate rose to 4% for the first time since January 2022, up from 3.9% in April.

The White House celebrated the news, which comes amid enduring public skepticism about the economy. “The great American comeback continues, but we still have to make more progress,” Joe Biden said in a statement.

“On my watch, 15.6 million more Americans have the dignity and respect that comes with a job.”

Here’s the full story:

Goodnight, and have a good weekend. GW

The White House has issued a statement on the May Jobs Report, highlighting job creation under the current administration.

In it, President Joe Biden says:

The great American comeback continues, but we still have to make more progress. On my watch, 15.6 million more Americans have the dignity and respect that comes with a job. Unemployment has been at or below 4% for 30 months—the longest stretch in 50 years. And a record high share of working-age women have jobs.

I will keep fighting to lower costs for families like the ones I grew up with in Scranton. I’m fighting corporate greed by calling on corporations with record profits to lower prices—as Target and Walmart have for grocery prices. I’m fighting to make rent more affordable by building 2 million new homes. I’m fighting to lower the cost of health care and prescription drugs, like insulin and inhalers.

Congressional Republicans have a different vision—one that puts billionaires and special interests first. The Republican plan would increase inflation by repealing the Affordable Care Act, siding with Big Oil to raise utility bills, letting Big Banks rip off Americans, and blow up the debt by slashing taxes for billionaires. I will never stop fighting for Scranton—not Park Avenue.

Wall Street has opened in the red, as today’s strong US jobs report dampens hope of an early interest rate cut.

The news that US payrolls swelled by a greater-than-forecast 272,000 in May, while average earnings rose by 0.4% in the month, is weighing on stocks.

At the start of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average of 30 large US companies lost 74 points, or 0.2%, to reach 38,811.99 points.

The broader S&P 500 index has dropped by 0.3%, while the technology-focused Nasdaq is down 0.35%.

David Goebel, investment strategist at wealth manager Evelyn Partners, says:

“This report caps off a mixed bag of a labour market signals this week that does little to make the Federal Reserve’s job easier.

“The headline non-farms number is a big upside surprise on the estimate, indicating a very healthy level of job creation. These gains were also broad-based, with the diffusion index, which measures the breadth of gains across industries, jumping to 63.4% in May from 56.6% in April.

“Stronger than expected wage gains also contributed to the prevailing sticky inflation story.

“At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.0%, its highest since January 2022. This looks to be a function of decreasing household employment, which fell 408k, because the participation rate took a dip to 62.5%, which would have exerted downward pressure on unemployment.

What little hope there was of a US rate cut in July (and there was never much) has been squashed by today’s jobs report.

With job creation accelerating to 272,000 last month, and earnings growth rising too, Fed rate cut hopes have been doused.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, explains:

“One step forward, two steps back. Today’s data undermines the message that other recent economic data have been giving of a cooling U.S. economy, and slams the door shut on a July rate cut.

Not only has jobs growth exploded again, but wage growth has also surprised to the upside – both moving in the opposite direction to what the Fed needs to begin easing policy. We still expect the Fed to cut rates in September but another set of prints like today’s would likely also take that off the table. The positive news, however, is that with a labor market this strong, the US economy is nowhere near recession territory.”

The US dollar is rallying, as investors conclude that today’s strong jobs report makes an early cut to US interest rates less likely.

The greenback has gained half a cent against the pound, pushing sterling down to $1.2738.

Here’s a breakdown on where the US economy added jobs last month, from the Bureau for Labour Statistics:

• Health care added 68,000 jobs in May, in line with the average monthly gain of 64,000 over the prior 12 months. In May, employment growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+43,000), hospitals (+15,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000).

• Government employment continued to trend up in May (+43,000), in line with the average monthly growth over the prior 12 months (+52,000).

• Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in May (+42,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+35,000). Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up over the month (+25,000).

• Professional, scientific, and technical services added 32,000 jobs in May, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in management, scientific, and technical consulting services (+14,000) and in architectural, engineering, and related services (+10,000). Specialized design services lost 3,000 jobs.

• Social assistance employment continued to trend up in May (+15,000), primarily in individual and family services (+11,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.

• In May, employment in retail trade continued to trend up (+13,000), about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+8,000). Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers added 12,000 jobs in May, while job losses occurred in department stores (-5,000) and furniture and home furnishings retailers (-4,000).

The jobs reports that there was little or no change in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and other services.

Newsflash: The US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, much more than expected.

That’s a rather stronger report than economists had expected – with Wall Street having forecast an increase of around 185,000 jobs.

The latest non-farm payroll report shows that employment continued to trend up in health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that the US unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.9% in April. That’s the highest rate since January 2022.

March and April’s jobs reports have been revised a little lower too.

The BLS says:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 5,000, from +315,000 to +310,000, and the change for April was revised down by 10,000, from +175,000 to +165,000.

Excitement is building in the financial markets ahead of the latest US jobs report, due in just over half an hour.

May’s non-farm payroll will show how many jobs were created across the American economy last month. It will be released at 1.30pm UK time, or 8.30am EDT.

That, and the latest wage data, will be a crucial factor in how soon the US Federal Reserve feels confidence to start cutting US interest rates.

Economists predict the NFP will show around 185,000 new jobs were created in May, which would be a small increase on the 175,000 in April (although that number could be revised today).

Wall Street also expects the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9% in May, while average monthly earnings growth could rise to 0.3%, from 0.2% in April.

Henk Potts, market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, sets the scene…

“The US economy continues to be resilient and its labour market remains in relatively rude health. Around 200,000 nonfarm payroll jobs are expected to have been created in May, compared with 175,000 registered in April, with the unemployment rate set to remain at 3.9%.

We anticipate that we could see a further softening in labour market conditions, but expect that the unemployment rate will peak at just 4% in the coming months, which would still be low when compared to historical standards.”

Just in: Russia’s central bank has left interest rates on hold, but threatened to raise them in coming months to fight inflation.

The Bank of Russia has just announced it is maintaining interest rates at 16%.

It warns that inflation in Russia has stopped falling, and that domestic demand for goods and services is rising faster than the economy’s ability to meet it (which is inflationary).

According to the estimate as of 3 June, annual inflation stood at 8.1% after 7.8% at the end of April, the Bank says.

And it drops a clear signal that rates could be raised soon, saying:

The Bank of Russia holds open the prospect of increasing the key rate at its upcoming meeting. Furthermore, returning inflation to the target will require a significantly longer period of maintaining tight monetary conditions in the economy than it was forecast in April.

According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast and given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will return to the target in 2025 and stabilise close to 4% further on.

Germany’s central bank has cut its growth forecasts, in another blow to Europe’s largest economy.

The Bundesbank now expects growth of just 0.3% in 2024, below the 0.4% forecast in December.

For 2025, it now sees growth of 1.1%, weaker than the 1.2% forecast before.

The Bundesbank says thee German economy is “slowly regaining its footing after a roughly two-year period of weakness”.

As Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel puts it:

The German economy is extricating itself from the period of economic weakness.

Nagel adds that “We on the ECB Governing Council are not driving on auto-pilot when it comes to interest rate cuts.”, a day after the first cut in eurozone interest rates in five years.

Newsflash: the long-anticipated business break-up of the billionaire brothers Zuber and Mohsin Issa has been agreed.

Zuber Issa has sold his 22.5% stake in Asda supermarket, which the brothers bought in a leveraged buyout in 2020, to fellow shareholder TDR Capital, the private equity firm.

Thsi will take TDR Capital’s total shareholding to 67.5%. Mohsin Issa will continue to own 22.5%, with Walmart owning the remaining 10%

This follows report of a rift between the brothers, following the breakdown of Mohsin’s marriage which is said to have “sent shockwaves” through the family.

And in another development, EG Group – the petrol station and convenience store chain founded by the brothers – has just announced the sale of its 'remaining UK forecourt business’ to Zuber Issa for £228m. He is also stepping down as co-CEO of the business.

Zuber Issa says:

Since Mohsin and I, alongside TDR, took ownership of Asda, we have driven a period of significant investment and entrepreneurial growth activity. Notably, Asda acquired a market-leading UK convenience retail and foodservice store business from EG Group.

With the divestment of my Asda shares, I will now turn my attention towards leading and managing the remaining EG UK forecourt sites that I have personally acquired, and spend more time on my charitable endeavours.

There were reports back in February that such a deal was being explored.

The takeover of Asda by the Issa brothers and TDR put billions of extra debt onto Asda’s balance sheet.

Today, the supermarket says:

Asda’s net debt at the end of Q124 was £3.8bn, net of more than £1bn cash on the balance sheet – and the business is fully committed to further deleveraging.

Global food commodity prices have risen again, in a blow to households worldwide.

The United Nations world food price index rose for a third consecutive month in May, as falling prices for sugar and vegetable oil were counted by rising prices for cereal and dairy products.

Prices rose by 0.9% in May compared with April.

But, that still left the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) 3.4% lower than a year ago, and nearly 25% below the peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up prices.

Cereal prices jumped by 6.3% in March, which the UN attribues to “growing concerns about unfavourable crop conditions for the 2024 harvests” and “damage to the Black Sea shipping infrastructure”.

Dairy prices rose 1.8% in the month, due to “increased demand from the retail and food services sectors ahead of the summer holidays”, and expectations that milk production may fall below historical levels in Western Europe.

But sugar prices fell by 7.5%, due to a “good start” of the new harvest season in Brazil, and “conducive weather conditions” boosting the global supply outlook.

And vegetable oil prices dropped by 2.4%, driven by a fall in the cost of palm oil as outputs across major producing countries in Southeast Asia rose.

These higher commodity costs will feed through to shoppers, and may slow the fall in food inflation.

The maker of Bulmers, Magners and Tennent’s cider has announced the shock departure of its CEO after revealing it had overstated its profits in recent years by €5m.

C&C told the City that detailed internal and external reviews had discovered a series of mistakes in its accounts in recent years.

This means it will take a €1m adjustment charge for the 2023 financial year, a €3m adjustment credit in FY2022 and a €7m adjustment charge in FY2021.

And CEO Patrick McMahon is paying the price; he’s leave his role, having stepped up from his position as finance chief a year ago.

C&C explains:

The Group’s Chief Executive Officer, Patrick McMahon, was Chief Financial Officer during the periods to which these adjustments relate and acknowledges that the relevant shortcomings occurred at a time when he had overall responsibility for the Group’s finance function.

Accordingly, he has informed the Board that he will step down as CEO and as a director with immediate effect.

C&C also reported a loss of €111m for the last financial year, down from a profit of €52m a year before.

Shares in C&C are down 7% in early trading, the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 index.

The recent rise in mortgage rates is likely to prevent any meaningful pickup in transactions and prices in the short-term, predicts Peter Arnold, chief economist at EY UK.

But Arnold also suggests we won’t see a new downturn in prices either… saying:

“While 2023 was a challenging year for the housing market, data for the first half of 2024 has suggested that the market has passed the bottom. The substantial fall in mortgage rates since last summer, combined with strong growth in nominal wages, has reduced the scale of the mortgage affordability problem. This has helped to entice some buyers back to the market, leading to a recovery in transactions and putting a floor under prices.

“Over the past couple of months, mortgage rates have edged up again in response to rising swap rates, as financial markets anticipate a slower pace of Bank of England interest rate cuts. This is likely to prevent any meaningful pickup in transactions and prices in the near-term. But so far, the increases have been small and mortgage rates remain well below last summer’s peaks. The EY ITEM Club does not expect to see a renewed downturn in the housing market.

Building up a deposit to buy a house is a large hurdle for first-time buyers, especially those who can’t turn to wealthy parents for help.

But the Labour Party are pledging to help – last night, they annouced they would permanently sustain and expand the current mortgage guarantee scheme.

The measure sees the government act as guarantor for part of a home loan – to encourage lenders to make low-deposit mortgages available for first-time buyers,

Labour, whose offering is dubbed ‘Freedom to Buy’, says it will help over 80,000 young people to get on the housing ladder over the next five years.

Labour leader Keir Starmer says:

“After 14 years of Conservative government, the dream of home ownership is out of reach for too many hard working people. Despite doing everything right, they can’t move on and up. A generation face becoming renters for life.

“My parents’ home gave them security and was a foundation for our family. As Prime Minister, I will turn the dream of owning a home into a reality.

“Our changed Labour Party will be on the side of the builders not the blockers, to get Britain building again. My Labour Government will help first-time buyers onto the ladder with a new Freedom to Buy scheme for those without a large deposit, and by giving them first dibs on new developments.

Labour are also pledging planning reform to build 1.5 million homes, saying this is the best way in the long term.

They say:

We will reintroduce housing targets, build on disused grey belt land, fast track permissions on brownfield and build the next generation of new towns.

House prices rose fastest in the North West of England in May – they were up 3.8% on an annual basis in May, taking the average price to £232,258.

In Northern Ireland, prices rose by 3.2%, while in Scotland they were 1.9% higher than a year ago.

In Wales, house prices grew annually by +0.7% – below the UK average of 1.5%.

Prices fell fastest in Eastern England, where they dropped by 0.8% in the year to May.

In London, prices have risen by 0.2% over the last year, to an average of £536,821 – still the most expensive part of the UK.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Stability has returned to the UK housing market, the latest data from lender Halifax shows, with prices dipping slightly last month.

Halifax’s latest house price index, just released, shows that average prices were little changed month-on-month in May,

The average house prices slipped to £288,688 last month, a 0.1% drop compared to £288,862 in April.

But on an annual basis, house price inflation rose to +1.5% in May, up from +1.1% in April.

Rising wages and a pick-up in economic confidence are supporting house prices, says Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax.

Bryden explains:

This has been reflected in a broadly stable picture in terms of property price movements, with the average cost of a property little changed over the last three months.

Bryden adds that a period of relative stability in both house prices and interest rates should lift confidence for both buyers and sellers.

While homebuyers and those remortgaging will continue to respond to changes in borrowing costs, set against a backdrop of a limited supply of available properties, the market is unlikely to see huge fluctuations in the near term.

Last week, rival lender Nationwide reported a rise in prices last month.

It’s important to remember, though, that both Halifax and Nationwide’s data is based on mortgage transactions, so doesn’t capture cash buyers.

Also coming up today

UK entrepreneur Mike Lynch will be celebrating after being cleared of all charges by a US jury in a fraud case related to the sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard (HP) in 2011.

Investors are poised for the latest US jobs report, which is expected to show the unemployment rate stuck at 3.9% in May.

The agenda

• 7am BST: Halifax house price index for May

• 7am BST: German industrial output report for May

• 10am BST: Third estimate of eurozone GDP for Q1 2024

• 11.30am BST: Bank of Russia sets interest rates

• 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll report for May