Time to wrap up…

• Environmental groups and sustainable finance campaigners have criticised BP following a report that the oil giant is dropping a target to cut its oil and gas production by the end of the decade.
  

• TGI Fridays will remain on UK high streets following a rescue deal for the chain, but more than 1,000 staff have lost their jobs with the immediate closure of 35 restaurants.

  Breal Capital and Calveton UK have acquired 51 restaurants after the group’s previous operator fell into administration.

  It means that nearly 2,400 jobs have been saved across the US-themed restaurant and cocktail bar, but 35 restaurants not included in the sale have closed, leading to 1,012 redundancies.
  

• UK house prices have risen for the third month running, to just over £100 below their all-time high.

• German industry has been hit by another fall in orders….
  

• The UK’s post-Brexit border plans have been delayed again, with new rules requiring safety forms to be sent with all imports delayed by three months.
  

• In the markets, the pound has hit a new three-week low against the US dollar.

Administrators at Teneo have said that 35 TGI Fridays restaurants were not included in the sale and have been closed immediately, resulting in 1,012 redundancies.

TGI Fridays have provided a list of the restaurants saved from closure through today’s sale to Breal Capital and Calveton UK.

They are:

• Bluewater

• Trafford Centre

• Meadowhall

• Aberdeen Union Square

• Metrocentre

• Basildon

• Glasgow Fort

• Milton Keynes Stadium

• Braehead

• Wembley

• Birmingham NEC

• Glasgow

• Junction 27 [of the M62, I think]

• Castleford

• Lakeside Quay

• Teesside

• Bolton

• Norwich

• St Davids

• Doncaster

• Lakeside

• Fareham

• Liverpool One

• Stevenage

• White Rose

• Cribbs Causeway

• Rushden Lakes

• Stoke on Trent

• Southampton

• Silverburn

• Watford Central

• Aberdeen Beach

• Braintree

• Bournemouth

• Stratford

• High Wycombe

• Cheshire Oaks

• Walsall

• Milton Keynes

• Sheffield

• Nottingham

• Edinburgh

• Coventry

• Ashton-Under-Lyne

• Telford

• The O2

• Staines

• Crawley

• Reading

• Cheadle

• Leicester Square

Breaking: More than 2,000 jobs have been saved at TGI Fridays restaurant chain, after private equity firms Calveton and Breal Capital stepped in to buy part of the chain.

The deal will save 51 of TGI Friday 87 UK restaurants, which should secure employment for almost half of the company’s 4,500 employees.

The sale comes less than a month after the TGI Fridays’ parent company, Hostmore, appointed the advisory firm Teneo as administrators.

Julie McEwan, chief executive of TGI Fridays UK, says:

“TGI Fridays is a much-loved brand with a rich heritage. The news today marks the start of a positive future for our business following a very challenging period for the casual dining sector as a whole. We look to the future with confidence that the TGI Fridays brand will continue to attract loyal and new guests.

“We are devastated for our colleagues who will be leaving TGIs and thank them for their loyalty and contribution during their time with us. We are doing everything possible to retain our team and support those impacted.

“We would like to thank our team and our loyal guests for supporting us during this transition. We are proud to serve millions of customers across the UK and are committed to continuing to evolve our proposition and to give our guests a great value for money experience that keeps them coming back to enjoy TGI Fridays time and again.”

But, the sale of part of TGI Fridays’ estate suggests that many staff have lost their jobs.

The Unite union have posted that staff have been reported being locked out of sites today with no notice, in what it calls “frankly appalling behaviour”.

Carmaker Jaguar Land Rover has reported a drop in sales in the last quarter, as it was hit by shortages of aluminium and a drop in demand in Europe and China.

JLR sold 103,108 units in the second quarter of the year, compared with 12 months earlier.

That included a 29% rise in sales in the UK, and a 9% rise in North America. However, sales fell by 22% in Europe, and by 17% in China.

JLR repors that its production in the last quarter fell by 7% year-on-year, as a result of “supply disruptions from a key high‑grade aluminium supplier” that affected multiple manufacturers.

That supplier was Switzerland’s Novelis, whose factory was hit by flooding in early August.

JLR also adds that a temporary hold was placed on around 6,500 vehicles, largely in the UK and Europe, at the end of September for additional quality control checks.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has won a legal victory at the court of appeal against a hedge fund which sued over its decision to cancel billions of dollars worth of nickel trades.

Hedge fund Elliott Associates had appealed an earlier court decision which found that the LME had acted lawfully over its decision-making during a crisis in the nickel market in March 2022 when there was a dramatic and unprecedented spike in nickel prices.

At the time the LME decided that the market had become disorderly, and that nickel trading should be suspended.

Elliott sued the LME at the high court alleging that the cancellation of trading was unlawful and outside the scope of the LME’s powers, and had violated Elliott’s human rights as it had caused the hedge fund to lose net profits of $456m. However the high court ruled last November that the LME’s decision had been lawful.

The hedge fund appealed but the court of appeal has now rejected its appeal on all grounds.

In the court’s ruling, Lord Justice Stephen Males, one of the three judges, ruled that “the cancellation was lawful as a matter of domestic law.”

He said:

“That was a once in a generation event. To have allowed the 8 March trades to stand would have meant a real risk of what has been graphically described as a ‘death spiral’ in the international metals market…”

BP is facing a backlash following reports this morning that it has abandoned its target to cut oil and gas production by 2030.

As covered earlier (see 8.10am), Reuters is reporting that CEO Murray Auchincloss is focused on projects in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost output, rather than cutting oil and gas output by 25% by the end of the decade.

Philip Evans, Greenpeace UK senior climate campaigner, says:

“This is yet further proof that we cannot leave the future of our planet in the hands of fossil fuel bosses. It’s clear that BP CEO Murray Auchincloss is hell-bent on prioritising company profits and shareholder wealth above all else as extreme floods and wildfires rack up billions of dollars in damages, destroying homes and lives all over the world.

“Oil companies cannot be trusted to curtail their further destruction of the planet. We desperately need the UK government and leaders around the world to step in to bring these companies under control, put an end to their expansion, and place bold new polluter taxes on them to pay for the damage they are doing around the world.”

James Alexander, CEO of UKSIF (the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association) is also unimpressed, saying:

“Most oil and gas majors have consistently failed to invest enough into transition technologies, setting targets and making claims that have often been abandoned or debunked.

The transition will not wait for them. The gap they have left is already being filled by renewables companies. It is increasingly dawning on investors that oil and gas companies that refuse to engage properly in the transition represent an unacceptable investment risk.”

Reclaim Finance stewardship campaigner Agathe Masson is urging shareholders to rein BP’s board in, saying:

“BP is throwing any pretence of climate action out of the window in pursuit of increased production, despite its previous ambition to cut production of oil and gas. BP might be happy to see the planet burn in the name of profits, but investors must take a longer view and reject this climate-wrecking strategy.

They must vote against the re-election of directors at the AGM to oppose this strategy, and act in the interests of net zero by refusing to provide new investments for fossil fuel developers. “

Over at John Lewis, CEO Nish Kankiwala is becoming a non-executive director at the retailer again, as new chairman Jason Tarry takes firm control of the business.

Three weeks after taking over as chair, replacing Sharon White, Tarry will now chair John Lewis’s executive team as well as the Partnership Board.

Kankiwala, a former Hovis and Burger King executive, had become John Lewis’s first CEO in March 2023 in an attempt to turn the business around.

Nineteen months later, the CEO role is being dispensed with, in a sign that Tarry – who ran Tesco’s UK and Irish operation for six years – will be running the John Lewis Partnership.

Kankiwala says:

“The Board asked me to move across from my Non-Executive Director role to Chief Executive back in March 2023. This was in view of such a significant time for the Partnership and to help accelerate this phase of the transformation. I was delighted to agree to take on the role for a two-year period during this time of pivotal change. Since then we’ve refreshed our Partnership strategy to be rooted in retail; significantly improved our cash flows to enable record investment for growth; and returned the Partnership to full-year profit.

“It’s been the privilege of my life to lead the Partnership as CEO during this period of intense transformation. I am hugely proud of what we’ve achieved so far - thanks to the hard work and dedication of our Partners. I have every confidence in Jason taking the Partnership from strength to strength in the next phase of our transformation and am delighted to continue to support him and the Board in an advisory capacity going forward.”

My colleague Nils Pratley pointed out back in April that it was hard to see where Kankiwala would fit in once Tarry arrived….

The government has confirmed another delay to post-Brexit border plans, with new rules requiring safety forms to be sent with all imports delayed by three months.

Part of the UK’s Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) plan, all imports were expected to include safety and security declaration forms from 31 October before they could enter the UK.

The forms used to assess the risk of products to UK security should include details of hauliers, descriptions of goods and details of the origins of products.

However, this has now been pushed back until 31 January amid concerns that businesses were not ready for the changes.

It is the latest in a long list of delays to Britain’s border plan after the introduction of border checks on plant and animal products was only introduced on 30 April after five delays.

Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, said:

“This is not a surprise as industry has seen little in the way of guidance being issued on the third implementation of Border Target Operating Model (BTOM).

“The overall aim of the is to deliver a world-leading, digital first border system for the UK, not create more confusion and extra cost for business. We would urge the government to now step up the engagement programme in the lead up to the January deadline to ensure a smooth transition to the new checks.”

Alongside this, the government has also pushed back the introduction of the roll-out of its single trade window, a digital platform that allows traders to provide all import details in a single place. This was also set to be introduced on 31 October but has now been pushed back.

The pound has dropped to its lowest level in over three weeks against the US dollar this morning, as traders anticipate cuts to UK interest rates in the months ahead.

Sterling has lost half a cent this morning, to trade as low as $1.3064, its lowest since 12 September.

Investors have been digesting last week’s dovish words from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who said the BoE could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates if inflation news continued to be good.

The BoE’s chief economist, Huw Pill, then pushed back, warned on Friday against cutting interest rates “too far or too fast.

Goldman Sachs believes the debate on the Bank’s monetary policy committee is shifting away from whether cuts are appropriate towards how quickly policy restriction should be withdrawn.

They expect the Bank to cut rates by a quarter of one percentage point at each meeting for the next year.

Goldman told clients there is likely to be “widespread support” for a quarter-point cut at the November MPC meeting, and for another cut in December, adding:

We therefore continue to expect sequential 25bp cuts until Bank Rate reaches 3% in September 2025.

Back in the UK property sector, residential landlord Grainger has reported a jump in rents and predicted further growth over the year ahead.

Grainger, which is the UK’s largest residential landlord with about 12,000 homes, reported like-for-like rental growth of 6.3% for the year to the end of September, down from 7.7% in the previous year.

Grainger says it is benefitting from '“rapidly accelerating growth in demand”, which has kept its occupancy rate high – at 97.4%.

The company says it also faces a “Favourable political environment”, saying:

The newly elected Labour Government have publicly opposed introducing rent controls in favour of stimulating the housing supply-side and raising standards via the Renters’ Rights Bill which Grainger already exceeds, and legislation which Grainger is proactively engaged on

Grainger also points out that its CEO, Helen Gordon, has been. appointed to the UK Government’s New Towns Taskforce.

Just in: Investor confidence across the euro area has risen this month, despite the economic problems in Germany.

After three declines in a row, Sentix’s gauge of eurozone investor morale has risen to -13.8 in October, from -15.4 in September.

Sentix reports that economic expectations rose this month, even as the current assessment of the economy plumbed a new low for the year, adding:

The economy is starting its next attempt to emerge from recession/stagnation.

The report found that all regions of the world are showing signs of improvement, although the German economy “remains in recession mode for the time being”.

Sentix’s Patrick Hussy says:

The German economy remains in recession. Here too, the current assessment figures remain close to the year’s lows. Expectations, on the other hand, show signs of easing with a plus of 6.8 points.

The new economic stimulus in China is having an initial effect - albeit only to a manageable extent so far.

Dark economic clouds are flocking over Germany this morning, with the news that manufacturing orders fell more sharply than expected in August.

New orders at German factories fell by 3.8% month-on-month, statistics body Destatis reports this morning, rather worse than the 2% fall forecast by economists.

On an annual basis, orders were 3.9% lower than in August 2023.

Destatis reports that the large monthly drop was partly because “extensive large orders” had been placed in July, for vehicles such as aircraft, ships, trains, and military transport.

If you exlude large orders, incoming orders in August were “only” 3.4% lower than in July, Destatis says.

The decline in factory orders will make it harder for Germany’s economy to return to growth, after it shrank slightly in April-June.

Last month, the country’s leading economic institutes downgraded their forecasts and predicted Germany’s economy would shrink by 0.1% in 2024.

Reuters are reporting that BP has abandoned a target to cut its oil and gas output by 2030.

The apparent u-turn come as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm’s energy transition strategy to regain the confidence of investors who have questioned its current strategy.

Instead of cutting fossil fuel output, the focus has moved to several new possible investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost its oil and gas output, Reuters reports.

BT has already trimmed this target once. It had initially planned to cut oil and gas production by 40% by 2030, but in February 2023 it cut this target to 25% and scaled back its climate ambitions.

Auchincloss was appointed BP’s CEO in January. So far this year its shares have fallen 10%, while rival Shell’s are flat.

A BP spokesperson has said:

“As Murray said at the start of year... the direction is the same – but we are going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, and higher value company.”

Rising house prices will make it harder for first-time buyers to get onto the housing ladder, unless lenders do continue to cut mortgage rates.

And new data from estate agents Hamptons shows that younger home buyers are already facing a tougher squeeze from mortgage payments than older generations.

Hamptons has calculated that millennials will be the first generation of homeowners to see mortgage repayments rise in the second half of their loan.

Higher interest rates today, compared to a few years ago, mean that the average Millennial still has over half (61%) of their projected total mortgage repayments to make, they say. By the same point, the average Baby Boomer had 41% left to pay and Generation X had 40%.

Hamptons reports that in 2024 prices, the average millennial (someone born between 1981 and 1995) will have paid £863 per month during the first five years of their mortgage loan. This compares to Generation X (those born from 1966 to 1980) who on average paid the equivalent of £923 a month (at today’s prices), and Baby Boomers (1946-1965) who paid an average of £775 a month on their new mortgage.

There’s even an intergenerational divide between older Millennials who bought early at rock bottom pre-Covid mortgage rates, and younger ones who bought later at higher prices, and higher mortgage rates.

And it’s worse for those born in the late 1990s. Higher rates today mean that Generation Z face average mortgage payments of £1,739 per month, roughly double what Millennials are paying.

House prices could be spurred higher if the Bank of England cuts interest rates (as expected) next month, says Matt Thompson, head of sales at estate agent Chestertons:

“Lower interest rates and sub-4% mortgage products saw more house hunters start their property search in September. The uplift in buyer activity, and looming changes to Capital Gains Tax in the upcoming Autumn Budget, also motivated sellers to put their property up for sale. We expect this level of market activity to continue and could see an additional boost in buyer motivation if the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates in November.”

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:

“Lenders continue to reduce their mortgage rates, which is encouraging buyers to make their move. The Bank of England Governor’s comments about a more aggressive approach to rate setting should feed through to even lower mortgage pricing.

“Several lenders repriced downwards last week, including HSBC, NatWest, Barclays and Santander. Two-year fixes are now available from 3.84 per cent while the cheapest five-year fix is pegged at 3.68 per cent, which will prove to be more palatable for borrowers than some of the higher rates they have been paying recently.

“This ongoing rate war among lenders is great news for borrowers as there are some really compelling deals being launched, which will go some way to helping affordability.”

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research, Knight Frank, suggests there might be a “relief bounce” after this month’s budget:

“The last two years have underlined the close relationship between mortgage rates and house prices – as one goes up the other goes down. We expect low single-digit price growth this year as rates continue to drift lower, with the Budget the main cause of uncertainty on the horizon.

If it better than feared, there is likely to be a relief bounce in activity before Christmas that lasts into next spring.”

Halifax reports that Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK.

The average price of a property in Northern Ireland is now £203,593, after prices rose by. 9.7% on an annual basis in September.

House prices in Wales rose by 4.4% to an average of £224,119.

Scotland saw a more modest rise in house prices, up 2.1%, meaning a typical property now costs £205,718.

Across England, the North West recorded the strongest house price growth of any region in England, up by +5.1% over the last year, to sit at £234,355.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK house prices have risen for the third straight month, lender Halifax reports this morning, helped by lower borrowing costs.

According to Halifax, the average house price rose by 0.3% in September to £293,399, up from £292,540 in August, which pushed the annual growth rate up to 4.7%.

This left the average price only a little short of the record high of £293,507 set in June 2022, on Halifax’s index, before the market started to slide in autumn 2022 after the mini-budget pushed up mortgage rates.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, says improved mortgage affordability is stimulating the market.

But, she adds, it’s “essential” to view these recent gains in context.

Bryden explains:

While the typical property value has risen by around £13,000 over the past year, this increase is largely a recovery of the ground lost over the previous 12 months. Looking back two years, prices have increased by just +0.4% (£1,202).

Market conditions have steadily improved over the summer and into early autumn. Mortgage affordability has been easing thanks to strong wage growth and falling interest rates. This has boosted confidence among potential buyers, with the number of mortgages agreed up over 40% in the last year and now at their highest level since July 2022.

While improved mortgage affordability should continue to support buyer activity – boosted by anticipated further cuts to interest rates – housing costs remain a challenge for many. As a result we expect property price growth over the rest of this year and into next to remain modest.”

The agenda

• 7am BST: Halifax house price index for September

• 7am BST: German factory orders for August

• 9.30am BST: Sentix survey of eurozone investor confidence

• 10am BST: Eurozone retail sales for August