Graeme Wearden 

UK retailers hope for Black Friday boost; mortgage approvals hit two-year high – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as mortgage approvals climb to highest since August 2022
  
  

Christmas decorations, trees and Santa's sleigh at Covent Garden Market in London.
Christmas decorations, trees and Santa's sleigh at Covent Garden Market in London. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

In other property news, there was a jump in the number of housing transactions completed last month.

According to HMRC, there were 100,410 UK residential transactions in October 2024, 21% higher than October 2023 and 10% higher than the previous month.

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, says:

“October saw a significant rise in buyers signing on the dotted line and committing to house moves, signalling strong momentum in the housing market despite some caution following the Autumn Budget.

“This impressive 21% annual increase and 10% month-on-month growth highlights robust consumer confidence, with many eager to push forward with their plans ahead of the typical Christmas slowdown.

“While the market has seen some price adjustments following the Budget, these changes reflect sellers’ willingness to remain competitive and attract buyers. According to Rightmove, the average asking price for a UK home dipped by 1.4% in November to £366,592 — a sharper than usual seasonal decline but a potential opportunity for buyers to secure favourable deals.

The “fading drag from higher interest rates” appears to be continuing to support the housing market, lifting mortgage approvals last month, reports Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics:

Webb explains:

The rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase from 66,115 in September to a two-year high of 68,303 in October (consensus 64,500) likely reflects the fall in mortgage rates in recent months, from 4.9% in July to 4.4% in October.

Admittedly, the rebound in swap rates in November may prevent further declines in mortgage rates in the coming months. But our view that Bank Rate will eventually fall from 4.75% now to 3.50% suggests mortgage rates will drop to 3.9% by the end of 2026. That would support a gradual rise in mortgage approvals.

We also suspect some housing activity will be brought forward to before nil band thresholds for stamp duty expire at the end of March 2025, as announced in the Budget.

Property agent Emma Fildes of Brickweaver reports that UK mortgage approvals in October were boosted by people trying to complete a new home move before Christmas, and avoid paying more stamp duty in 2025:

Updated

UK mortgage approvals highest since August 2022

Back in the UK, more people have been applying for mortgages following the cuts to borrowing costs this year.

Around 68,300 mortgages for house purchases were approved in October, which is the highest since August 2022 – the month before the chaotic mini-budget drove up mortgage costs – when 72,200 were agreed.

Demand picked up after UK interest rates were cut in August, and ahead of the second reduction in early November.

The Bank of England has also reported that net consumer credit borrowing by individuals slowed slightly, to £1.1bn in October, slightly down from £1.2bn in September.

Updated

Photos: Amazon protest in New Delhi

Over in New Delhi, people have been holding a protest calling on Amazon to pay higher wages, and provide better working conditions:

It's also Buy Nothing Day

Today isn’t all about shopping, as retail analyst Nick Bubb reminds us:

Spare a thought for all the hard-working delivery drivers today, coping with all the ‘Black Friday’ orders, although today is also Buy Nothing Day (a day of protest against consumerism that began in Canada in the 1990’s)...

The philosophy behind Buy Nothing Day is that it’s a 24-hour detox from consumerism, and a chance to reflect on the impact that shopping has on the environment – as it’s more sustainable to reuse and recycle than buy new.

The timing of Black Friday this year, near or on payday for many workers, may work out well for retailers.

Susannah Streeter head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains:

‘’We’re deep in the golden quarter for retail with Christmas sales crucial for so many stores and Black Friday spending is expected to surpass last year’s levels on both sides of the pond. However, this mega promotional event is a mixed blessing for retailers. It provokes such shopping mania in the quest for a good deal that around three quarters of people will actually put off spending in the run up to the event. During the promotional period it also means selling at a discount, with means a smaller profit margin at a time when they are being squeezed by rising staff costs. It also puts pressure on their distribution chains, which can cause problems for their reputation in they run into difficulties.

However, given that this year it’s so close to pay day, it looks likely that consumer spend in the UK will surpass last year’s totals. Consumer confidence may still be in negative territory with worries reverberating about the economy, but optimism about personal finances has increased this month, which may also translate into higher sales

There’s another flurry of takeover excitement in the City today.

UK engineer TI Fluid Systems has agreed to be taken over in a deal worth more than £1bn.

They’ve being bought by ABC Technologies Acquisitions, owned by asset manager Apollo, in a deal worth 200p per share.

Shares in TI Fluid are up 2.3%, at 193p. The company makes fluid storage, carrying and delivery systems, and thermal management products and systems, for electric cars, hybrids and also internal combustion engine vehicles.

Another loss to the London stock exchange, which has already seen takeover offers for Direct Line (rejected) and for waste management firm Renewi, and the departure of Just Eat (though that’s less of a blow….)

German retailers also need a Black Friday lift, after new data this morning showed a fall in sales last month.

German retail sales fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month, much worse than the 0.3% decrease predicted by analysts.

Food sales rose by 0.1% on the month, while non-food sales fell by 2.2% in October.

Compared to the same month in the previous year, sales were 1% higher.

The Booksellers Assocation is urging consumers to support their local bookshops – and their high streets – today and through the year.

Meryl Halls, managing director of the Booksellers Assocation, explains:

“During this festive gifting period of immense financial pressure for many, the appeal of money-saving Black Friday deals is understandable, but the Booksellers Assocation is reminding consumers of the value of local bookshops and vibrant high streets.

Bookshops are the cultural hearts of our highstreets and essential cornerstones for our communities – and by shopping in them during the festive period, we support their presence throughout the year, and also take part in a cultural and social movement where communities who invest in their town centres and high streets thrive and flourish.

A book bought in your local bookshop enables them to support local festivals, workshops, school visits, parenting groups, libraries, charities and food banks. So we urge everyone this Friday looking to buy a book to do so from a bookshop on their local high street.”

It’s still Thursday (just) in California, but some eager shoppers have already been gathering ready for Black Friday to kick off:

australia

The Black Friday sales have already been in full swing in Australia.

The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) expects a record $6.7bn to be spent from Friday to Monday – 5.5% more than in the same period last year – based on analysis by market researcher Roy Morgan.

While major retailers – and plenty of smaller labels – have heavily promoted their products for Black Friday, some brands marketed as ethically minded have chosen to entirely avoid taking part in the sales.

Quilter: Watch out for financial scams

Financial advisor Quilter is urging shoppers to have a heightened awareness of the scams targeting their money.

They warn that Black Friday and Cyber Monday is prime time for fraudsters looking to take advantage of people during this period of high-volume spending and frenzied online activity.

Such scams are often not only disguised as the sale of goods, but also appear as opportunities to invest your money, Quilter’s information security culture manager Louise Cockburn warns.

She’s drawn up some advice for avoiding scams:

  • A sense of urgency – This is one of the most common tactics used at this time of year. Fraudsters design offers that appear to be fleeting, pressuring shoppers to act quickly without thoroughly evaluating the legitimacy of the deal.

    Phrases such as ‘limited time offer’ or ‘only a few items left’ can be red flags. Making hasty decisions could prove costly, so you should always stop and take a moment to assess the offer critically before proceeding.

  • Fear and anxiety – Scammers often incite fear by suggesting that failing to act immediately could result in negative consequences, such as missing out on a deal or facing account issues.

    Emails from retailers are rife at this time of year, but messages claiming that your account has been compromised and urging you to click a link to verify your information are common scams. You should always verify such claims by directly contacting the retailer or service provider through official channels.

  • Greed and excitement – Scammers know that the allure of significant discounts can cloud judgement, so you should always question the authenticity of deals that offer products at prices well below market value. It is wise to compare prices across multiple trusted sources to validate the offer, and shop only from secure, official websites.

    You should always look for a padlock symbol in the address bar and verify that the URL starts with “https://”. Secure connections protect your personal and financial information from being intercepted by malicious actors.

The best Black Friday deals on the products we love....

The Filter, the Guardian’s home for product reviews and recommendations, has rounded up some of the best Black Friday deals on offer in the UK.

They’ve picked out genuine Black Friday deals – namely, discounts that undercuts the item’s long-term average price by a notable amount, rather than reversing an October price hike (a tactic popular with less scruplous retailers).

The list includes air fryers, food mixers, a handheld steamer, a coffee machine, hand-held weighs, tech kit, and clothes….

Introduction: Retailers hoping for Black Friday sales lift

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK retailers will be hoping for a surge of Black Friday sales today, after bad weather hit takings in November.

This month has been tough for Britain’s retailers, as Storm Bert brought high winds, heavy rain, flooding and transport disruption to parts of the country.

According to the Office for National Statistics, footfall on UK high streets fell 5% last week, and was 10% lower than a year ago. That will have hurt shops, who have already been hit by weak consumer confidence in the run-up to the budget in October, and afterwards.

Black Friday, the traditional US post-Thanksgiving sales bonanza that has now gone global, should give shoppers an opportunity to bag a bargain. BUT, they should also watch out for scams from fraudsters, and be aware that some offers may not be as generous as they appear….

New data this morning from the British Retail Consortium shows that total footfall at UK stores fell by 4.5% in November, year-on-year. However, that’s partly because Black Friday came earlier last year.

Shopping centres were hit hardest, but the number of visitors to high streets and retail parks also fell with the north-east of England, Yorkshire, Wales and Scotland most affected, according to the latest data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Sensormatic.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, says:

“Footfall took a disappointing tumble in November, as a later-than-usual Black Friday and low consumer confidence meant customers were hesitant to hit the shops. Some northern cities also suffered particularly badly due to Storm Bert, which caused travel disruption towards the end of the month. Retailers remain hopeful that the Black Friday and Christmas sales will help to turn around the declining footfall seen through most of 2024, crucial as we enter the “golden quarter”.

Andy Sumpter, retail consultant EMEA for Sensormatic, says hopes of an early pick-up to spending before Christmas has been dashed:

“Retail store visits dipped in November as consumer confidence remains volatile, perhaps not helped by post-Budget spending jitters and shoppers withholding festive purchases, opting instead to shop around for the best prices or hold out for further discounting.

This lacklustre footfall performance will have come as a blow for many retailers, who would have been counting on getting early Christmas trading results under their belts before the start of advent.

Black Friday has been one of the biggest shopping days in the US for years, leading UK retailers to adopt it. A decade ago, there were big crowds and scuffles as stores opened at midnight to lure shoppers in with cut-price deals.

These days, it’s more of a online affair.

But Amazon faces the prospect of thousands of its workers protesting or striking from today until Monday, in a push for better workers’ rights and climate action from the US retailer.

The Make Amazon Pay campaign, is coordinating action in the US, Germany, the UK, Turkey, Canada, India, Japan, Brazil and other countries.

The agenda

  • 7.45am GMT: French inflation rate for November

  • 9.30am GMT: Bank of England mortgage approvals data

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone inflation flash reading for November

  • 10.30am GMT: Bank of England to release its Financial Stability Report

  • 1.30pm GMT: Canadian Q3 GDP report

Updated

 

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