It’s a staple of the political coverage of a mid-year economic update to flick to the “decisions taken but not yet announced” line item, declare it an election war chest, and suggest sweeteners are hidden within.
But as the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, noted on Wednesday, that number (which includes other commercial in confidence spending) is a “relatively small” $5.5bn.
Nor was Chalmers dangling cost-of-living relief beyond what the government has already delivered, using his stock standard formulation that more will be done if it is affordable to do so.
After several questions about the size of deficits and the decade-long path back to a balanced budget, Chalmers made a virtue of how little new spending there was in the mid-year statement.
“If you look at the spending that we have made, this mid-year update is not chock-full of big, expensive new decisions,” he told reporters in parliament’s blue room.
“We are reconciling and accounting for decisions we have taken. Or unavoidable pressures.”
There was $8.8bn of “unavoidable spending” and $16.3bn in changes to payments and programs, but it’s mostly workaday stuff like indexation of the aged pension, more support for veterans and listings on the pharmaceutical benefits scheme.
In short, there was no big rabbit-out-of-the-hat in the mid-year economic update; nothing headline-grabbing designed as a circuit breaker to a poll slump that puts the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, in a winnable although not necessarily winning position.
And why would you bother? It’s one week until Christmas, and most Australians’ productivity and attention span has already fallen off a cliff. Our literal eyeballs or psychological bandwidth are on the cricket, the beach … anything but politics.
When there is something potentially election swinging to announce it will be in the new year, fronted by the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, just like the masterstroke of revamping the stage-three income tax cuts at the start of 2024.
Despite the lack of flair, the mini-budget is full of interesting titbits that give an indication of where the election will be fought.
The federal commitment to Townsville’s Great Barrier Reef aquarium has increased from $100m to $161.1m. Retiring MP Warren Entsch’s seat of Herbert, which includes Townsville, is one of the few Labor hopes to pick up in Queensland.
As Albanese reportedly warns that News Corp is out to get Labor, the government has quietly suspended the commercial broadcasting tax for a year from June 2025 to 2026, providing $50.3m tax relief to commercial TV and radio broadcasters over two years.
I’m sure commercial broadcasters would never be so crass as to allow this to influence coverage, in the same way that the good people of Townsville can’t be bought with an aquarium. Still, it doesn’t hurt.
It would be wonderful if policies, such as ensuring veterans aren’t subject to long waitlists to receive payments, were an important consideration for voters. But, in reality, services are run down precisely because it’s the sort of thing governments usually get away with.
What matters more are larger narratives such as: are you better off than three years ago? Who do you trust to do this or that (keep interest rates low etc.)? Who has the better economic plan?
Labor has a good story to tell, having delivered two budget surpluses in 2022-23 and 2023-24. But this, and the fact that the Coalition delivered none in itsnine years in office – as finance minister Katy Gallagher reminded voters on Wednesday – must surely be already baked into the polls.
No, what swings elections outside blockbuster policies is a good scare.
Chalmers was sharp on these, using the morning round of interviews to warn of possible cuts to Medicare. In the blue room, he used the Qantas compensation verdict to point to the Coalition’s intention to repeal same job, same pay laws. He noted the opposition had voted against cost-of-living relief.
Chalmers labelled the Coalition’s nuclear policy a “fantasy” and an “experiment” that would be paid for by an off-budget three times the $45bn Angus Taylor has complained about on Labor’s watch. Nuclear may blow back on the budget if it proves “not economic”, he said.
Taylor responded that the criticism was “made up” but didn’t identify the error in logic.
Today was about Labor getting its sums right, but its election pitch will hinge on that unquantifiable political commodity – trust – and an appeal to voters’ concern that the alternative is worse.
Paul Karp is Guardian Australia’s chief political correspondent
