Australia is expected to welcome a record number of Chinese tourists this summer amid a surge in new air routes between the two countries, adding to what is already set to be a busy – and potentially chaotic – holiday period.
On Tuesday, Juneyao Airlines became the eighth carrier based in mainland China to run flights to Australia, with the launch of its Sydney-Shanghai route, before its Melbourne-Shanghai service starts on Friday.
The new routes mean that, by January, the number of airline seats in the Australia-China market will reach 104% of the previous peak of capacity set pre-pandemic, according to analysis from Flight Centre travel group.
Juneyao’s launch caps off what has been a flooding of new capacity in recent months, as well as a revival of routes that existed before the pandemic such as between Perth and China, with seats in November at just 79% of pre-Covid levels.
The gradual thawing of Covid-era diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Canberra, marked by the Chinese government announcing group tours to Australia could resume; bilateral meetings including Anthony Albanese visiting China; and most recently, the extension of a visa-free policy to Australian passport holders from 15 to 30 days, are believed to have boosted demand to fill planes in both directions.
As these developments occurred, Chinese airlines began planning to ramp up their operations and launch new services, leading to a lowering in average air fares not just between the countries but also in tickets to Europe that transit through Chinese cities.
While there are now eight Chinese carriers operating to Australia, there are no services from Australian airlines, after Qantas scaled back the revival of its routes to the mainland, largely because of weak demand due to China’s slower Covid revival and its scarcity of aircraft.
James Goodwin, the chief executive of the industry association Accommodation Australia, said that while the post-pandemic rebound in Chinese tourists had been slower than expected, increases to aviation capacity were “very welcome”.
Goodwin said that the return of travellers from China would be an overall boon for Australia’s tourism sector. In 2019, Chinese tourists spent about $12bn in the local economy.
“China has become the second-highest country of origin in recent months, behind New Zealand, and looks set to regain its pre-pandemic [top] spot in the next 12 months,” Goodwin said.
The uptick in Chinese tourists will be part of an overall bumper travel period this summer across Australia.
Tourism and Transport Forum (TTF) survey data found that 75% of Australians plan to travel over the summer months, made up of 36% who plan a holiday within their own state and 25% looking interstate, while 14% have booked overseas trips, with New Zealand and Japan the most popular destinations.
The average length of trips is also growing, with the proportion of eight to 14-day trips and holidays above two weeks increasing.
Accommodation Australia data shows that capital city forward hotel bookings are up 4.6% in December and 3.75% in January. While hotel occupancy increases are modest in Sydney and Melbourne, bookings for Hobart are up 20% and 18% for December and January respectively.
Airports have warned passengers to arrive with extra time before their flights.
Sydney airport is gearing up for its busiest summer period since 2019, with 5.82 million passengers forecast to travel through its terminals between 13 December and 27 January – 2.5 million of which will be international tourists. Sydney airport’s prediction marks a 460,000 person increase on last year, and represents 99% of travel levels in the 2019/20 summer.
Melbourne airport, meanwhile, is expecting more than 4.8 million travellers over the period – which will be a record for the airport. The city is also the top destination for domestic travellers.
Australian airlines are also increasing their schedules to cope with the increased demand for domestic travel. Virgin Australia will operate up to 3,000 flights – mostly domestic – per week over summer, with domestic capacity for the airline at an all time record.
However, the looming threat of industrial action over the period could see a repeat of chaotic scenes that were common during staffing shortages in the early post-pandemic years.
Last Friday, Qantas engineers at most major airports walked off the job for 24 hours amid a pay dispute with the airline.
Qantas said it was able to roster enough engineers to avoid major disruptions, but the situation could deteriorate further, with the union warning of another strike this coming Friday, and the potential for more industrial action if there is no breakthrough in negotiations.
Last week, Qantas and other major foreign airlines such as Emirates and Singapore Airlines who outsource their ground handling operations in Australia to Dnata avoided disruption to their baggage, cargo and ramp services aborted a strike after reaching a last-minute deal for improved pay and conditions.
