The cost of an average Christmas dinner has surged 6.5% on last year, pushed up by hefty price rises on potatoes, cauliflower, carrots and parsnips.

UK shoppers will pay £32.57 for a festive meal for four, according to retail analysts at Kantar, spurred by a 16.3% jump in potato prices and a near 15% rise in the cost of carrots.

All elements in the meal rose in price except sparkling wine, which remained level on last year with the most expensive item, turkey, up 8.5%. The overall cost of a Christmas dinner rose by almost three times the pace of wider grocery inflation.

Grocery prices stepped up 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 December, up from 2.3% a month before, according to Kantar. Prices rose fastest on household essentials such as toothbrushes and chilled juices, while they fell on items such as dog food and toilet roll.

Spending on groceries to take home rose just 2.5% in the 12 weeks to 1 December – just behind inflation in the final month of that period – indicating that shoppers are still cautious about putting more items in their baskets and searching for ways to save.

Ashtead Group, the £27bn construction rental company, plans to shift its primary listing to New York in the latest blow to the London stock market.

The company, which has been listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) since 1986, said the US was a natural home for the company, given that nearly all of profits – about 98% – are made across the Atlantic.

However, its switch away from the UK represents another snub to the LSE, which a number of high-profile businesses have left.

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Thank you for reading – see you again tomorrow. Bye! – JK

Arabica coffee prices hit record highs today as dealers worried about the outlook for Brazil’s crop.

Volcafe, one of the world’s largest coffee traders, slashed its 2025/26 forecast for the country’s arabica output.

Brazil, which grows nearly half the world’s arabica - high-end beans typically used in roast and ground blends beloved by barristas - will produce just 34.4m bags of the bean next season, according to a Volcafe report seen by Reuters.

The forecast has been cut by 11m bags because of a high level of blossom failure following this year’s drought. Volcafe sees an “unprecedented” fifth consecutive global coffee shortage of 8.5m bags next year.

The trader told Reuters:

The situation of continuous deficits prevalent since 2021 is largely driven by the inability of Brazil to produce a healthy ‘on-cycle’ arabica crop back to above 50 million bags, primarily due to climate change.

Arabica coffee futures on ICE, used as a benchmark to price physical coffee around the world, hit $3.4835 per pound earlier today, their highest ever levels. They are now trading 4.3% higher at $3.4440 per lb.

Coffee prices have jumped by 80% this year, also driven by worries over crops in top robusta producer Vietnam.

The price rises have boosted potential earnings for farmers but they are challenging traders, who are facing crippling hedging costs on exchanges and a scramble to receive the beans they are owed.

Rising prices are also prompting some consumers to switch to cheaper coffee. The boss of Nestlé, the world’s biggest coffee company, was ousted earlier this year after the board grew unhappy about weak sales and a loss of market share as coffee drinkers switched to cheaper brands.

London Euston’s controversial giant advertising screen will be repurposed to show train information – in the same position as the traditional departures boards it replaced a year ago.

Network Rail will again display information for passengers on the wall spanning the main concourse, after swelling public discontent ended with the former transport secretary Louise Haigh ordering immediate action to improve one of Britain’s most important mainline stations - starting by switching off the adverts.

Information will now be instead displayed on the advertising screen, initially as a trial into January. The original screens have been bought by a transport museum.

The smaller information screens installed across the concourse will remain. As well as wanting to generate advertising revenue, Network Rail had partly embarked on the redesign to improve passenger flow. It argued that the single location of the original board contributed to congestion as people massed to await platforms to be displayed.

Haigh’s successor, Heidi Alexander, said:

I’m pleased to see Network Rail taking action and making progress on its five-point plan to alleviate some of the issues faced at Euston – particularly at this time of year, when the festive period brings an increase in passengers.

The rail regulator last year warned Network Rail about the risks of overcrowding in Euston, while watchdog London TravelWatch criticised last-minute announcements which caused passengers to rush to platforms.

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed its best year since 2021, with an 11.4% total return and NatWest and engine maker Rolls-Royce emerging as the top performers.

And JD Sports and discount retailer B&M are the worst performers, according to analysis by the stockbroker AJ Bell.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, said:

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed its best year since 2021 with an 11.4% total return, driven by a mixture of companies delivering good news and takeover activity,” says

The UK stock market doesn’t deserve its unloved reputation. While it may lack the glitz and glamour of the US market, it’s still full of interesting companies offering steady earnings growth. Fundamentally, the FTSE 100 can help provide ballast to an ISA or pension portfolio, particularly as the index has a rich source of dividends and a good mix of cyclical and defensive companies.

The average total return for the index is 7.1% over the past decade. It has achieved double-digit returns in five of the past 10 years.

Payouts for the ballooning motor loan commission controversy may now end up rivalling the the PPI scandal, which cost UK banks £50bn, the regulator’s top lawyer said.

Stephen Braviner Roman, the Financial Conduct Authority’s general counsel and executive director of legal, risk, compliance and corporate governance, said October’s unexpected court of appeal ruling into car finance commission arrangement vastly expanded the scope of potential consumer payouts.

We’ve previously said… that looking at DCAs [discretionary commission arrangements] alone, we do not think it’s the scale of PPI. But that was when we were looking at DCAs alone. So I think it would be premature to say it’s definitely not the scale of PPI, now.

That could suggest that the resulting costs to lenders, including Lloyds, Santander UK, and Close Brothers, could even Moody’s top estimates of £30bn.

The PPI scandal ended up costing UK banks £50bn.

October’s court ruling said that paying “secret” commission to the car dealers who had arranged the loans, without disclosing the sum and terms of that commission to borrowers, was unlawful.

That case went beyond an ongoing investigation by the FCA into a specific type of commission payment, known as discretionary commission arrangements, which was banned by the regulator in 2021.

Online card and gift specialist Moonpig has slumped £33m into the red after sales of experiences were hit by the cost of living crisis.

The company wrote down the value of its experience gift arm, which sells vouchers from just under £30, by almost £57m, saying it faced a “challenging market environment” and was “more sensitive to the economic cycle than the rest of the group.”

The write down came as Moonpig said it has increased sales by 3.8% to £158m with sales from its Moonpig and Greetz sites up 7.3% but revenue from experiences down 20.8%.

The company said it expected investments in technology and innovation, including AI-generated versions of customers’ handwriting and message suggestions for cards, would drive double-digit sales growth.

More clinical trials – where new medicines are tested on volunteers – were conducted in the UK last year and it improved its global rankings, but is still lagging behind its European neighbours in life science research.

In its annual report on the health of UK industry clinical trials, the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) found that the UK is making some progress toward rebuilding its global position as a desirable location for industry clinical trials.

For the second year in a row, the total number of trials initiated in the UK increased, from 411 trials in 2022 to 426 last year. These studies generate new treatments for patients and create valuable revenue for the NHS.

Between 2017 and 2021, the UK fell from fourth to tenth place in the global rankings for the number of late-stage (phase III) trials it hosts. The UK has started to climb the rankings again, up two spots to eighth place for the number of phase III trials. However, it remains below similar European countries like Spain (3rd), Germany (6th) and Italy (7th).

The UK also gained two places for intermediate (phase II) trials, moving from sixth to fourth, but fell from fourth to fifth place in the phase I rankings.

In another setback, the number of participants recruited for clinical trials fell by nearly 14% to 22,191 in 2023/24 – the lowest number recorded in the past seven years.

The ABPI urged the government to prioritise reducing set-up times for trial delivery and to invest the £300m earmarked for improving clinical trials in line with pharmaceutical industry expectations to boost capacity and infrastructure, among other recommendations.

Richard Torbett, chief executive of the ABPI said:

It’s promising to see that positive government action in response to earlier decline is beginning to pave the way to industry clinical trials recovery, although the UK still has a long way to go to return to its previous globally leading position.

We urge the government and delivery partners to focus on the recommendations set out in our report to accelerate progress. Positioning industry clinical research as a key element in the forthcoming Life Sciences Sector Plan and NHS 10 Year Plan will send a signal to global industry that the UK is open for business again.

In 2022, industry clinical trials contributed £7.4bn to the UK economy, supporting 65,000 jobs and generating £1.2bn of revenue for the NHS, which created more than 13,000 NHS research-linked jobs, the ABPI said. If the UK could return its industry clinical trial activity to the levels last seen in 2017, it could generate an additional £3bn and support 25,000 new jobs, including £485 million of NHS revenue and 5,000 clinical research jobs in the NHS, the industry body has calculated.

Public enthusiasm for clinical research is high, with 76% of people saying they would support their MP campaigning for their local hospital to deliver more trials.

Vifor Pharma has pledged to pay £23m to the NHS after Britain’s competition watchdog raised concerns that the drugs firm had been making misleading claims about the safety of a rival’s iron deficiency treatment.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has been investigating whether Vifor - which makes intravenous iron treatment Ferinject - has spread misinformation to doctors and nurses about the safety of a rival treatment, Monofer, supplied by Pharmacosmos.

Iron deficiency anaemia is a condition where a lack of iron in the body leads to a reduction in the number of red blood cells. The CMA’s investigation focused on intravenous iron treatments, typically prescribed where oral medicine is not suitable – such as treating patients with long term health conditions or before they undergo major surgery.

Vifor Pharma has agreed to quickly address the CMA’s competition concerns and offer a number of commitments which the CMA will now consult on with interested parties until 17 January. These include:

• Making a payment of £23m to healthcare systems across the four nations, following concerns that the claims could have an adverse financial impact on the NHS.

• Writing to healthcare professionals to correct any potentially misleading communications regarding the safety of Monofer and Ferinject.

• Introducing several measures to prevent dissemination of misleading information in the future.

If accepted, the commitments will become legally binding and will mean that it is not necessary for the CMA to decide whether Vifor Pharma broke competition law.

Juliette Enser, the CMA’s executive director for competition enforcement, said:

Pharmaceutical companies must think carefully when making claims about competitors – these can have real impact on the doctors and nurses making potentially life-changing decisions about treatment and, of course, on the patients themselves.

Iron deficiency anaemia affects millions of people across the country and can have a serious impact on their quality of life. We know that vulnerable patients with long-term health conditions such as coeliac disease and heart failure depend on this vital treatment.

As well as ensuring patients are protected, the commitments we are consulting on support competition - enabling businesses to operate on an even playing field and the NHS to get good value for money.

Vifor Pharma, a Swiss firm that was acquired by Australia’s CSL three years ago, said it had made the commitments but added:

It does not mean any admission of liability on our part. CSL Vifor is pleased to be taking this important step towards resolution of the CMA investigation.

Thames Water also released its latest financial results this morning, which showed its debts increase to £16bn and a 40% increase in the number of pollution incidents in the six months to 30 September.

It reported 359 category one to three pollution incidents, blaming an especially wet spring and summer.

The industry has faced public outcry over sewage spills into the UK’s seas and waterways. The Thames Water chief executive, Chris Weston, said that after “record rainfall and groundwater levels in our region, pollutions and spills are unfortunately up”.

The Unite union issued a scathing response, and reiterated its call for Thames Water to be renationalised. Its general secretary Sharon Graham said:

This is the grim reality of water privatisation, a company swimming in debt while the rest of us are swimming in sewage.

The only solution the company has is for customers to pay even higher bills. While corporate vultures wait in the wings looking to asset strip.

It is time for the government to take control and stand up for the public interest. Thames Water needs to be brought back into public ownership and those who have racked up billions in debt are the ones who can pay it - not the taxpayer.

The Liberal Democrats also called for urgent government action.

The opposition party’s environment spokesperson, Tim Farron, said:

This latest shocking rise in sewage spills must be the final straw for Thames Water. The government must put this broken firm into special administration to give customers the fair deal they deserve.

Time and time again Thames Water has proved it is no longer fit for purpose and cannot be trusted with our precious waterways.

Whilst pumping out raw sewage and letting pollution incidents spiral out of control, Thames Water have lined their pockets, mismanaged infrastructure and overseen mounting debts.

It is unacceptable to continue coming up with excuses, and refusing to take responsibility for the absolute mess they’ve left .

Canary Wharf Group, which owns most of the Docklands in southeast London, has agreed to borrow £610m from US investment giant Apollo to repay bonds that fall due over the next couple of years.

The proceeds will be used to repay CWG’s bonds due in April 2025 and April 2026.

The landlord has had a tough time since the Covid-19 pandemic, as the move to hybrid working has led several banks and law firms to downsize, and key office tenants including HSBC and Clifford Chance are moving back to the City of London, the traditional finance district. CWG is trying to lure life science and technology firms to the area.

CWG, which is owned by Canada’s Brookfield Property Partners and Qatar Investment Authority, said the financing deal showed strong support from lenders for the business district. The company has completed more than £2bn of refinancings in the past year.

Becky Worthington, chief finance officer, said:

We have achieved a significant amount of financing over the last 12 months and this latest deal with Apollo is testament to the strength of the proposition and our performance at Canary Wharf.

We continue to attract new businesses to the Wharf including health, life sciences, education, VC start-ups and scale-up customers. Several customers have recommitted including Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and JP Morgan, and earlier this year, Revolut chose Canary Wharf as its global headquarters.

More than 3,500 people are now living in Canary Wharf, which has more than 320 shops and 80 bars, cafes and restaurants.

Boohoo has set a date of 21 January for a shareholder meeting called by Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group at which the former Newcastle United boss is aiming to oust the online fashion specialist’s founder and vice chairman Mahmud Kamani.

In a letter to shareholders ahead of a 20 December meeting called by Frasers at which Ashley is aiming to secure a seat on the board for himself and an ally, Boohoo’s directors warned that Ashley’s tactics were an “attempt to destabilise boohoo”.

They warned that Ashley had used similar tactics on Studio Retail Group which went into administration before he bought it for £1.

The cost of an average Christmas dinner has risen as grocery price inflation in the UK picked up in recent weeks.

An average Christmas dinner for four costs £32.57, up 6.5% on last year, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples, according to retail analysts Kantar. Wider grocery inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 December, up from 2.3% in the previous month.

Sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores increased by 2.5% in the four weeks to 1 December as shoppers get ready for Christmas.

Sales of assorted sweet biscuits and biscuits for cheese both doubled in November compared with the month before, while 8% of shoppers bought a Christmas pudding.

Grocers’ sales are expected to continue growing, exceeding £13bn over the four weeks of December for the first time ever.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said:

Monday 23 December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards.

Many of us take the chance to treat ourselves at this time of year and retailers are rolling out seasonal product lines to help us celebrate in style. The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5% over the latest four weeks and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7%.

Sales on promotion reached 30% in November, the highest since Christmas last year. McKevitt said:

It’s retailer price cuts, often accessed through loyalty cards, that are really driving this. While multibuy promotions have stayed flat, spending on price cut offers has grown by 14%, worth £355m more than last year. Shoppers are grabbing the chance to spend that little bit more than usual on Christmas specials, and champagne, wine and spirits saw the biggest levels of buying on deal.

Tesco – Britain’s biggest retailer – achieved its highest market share since December 2017 at 28.1%, according to the report.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

Another update from embattled Thames Water: the UK’s biggest water company warned this morning that it will run out of cash by the end of March without an emergency debt deal.

It said all its funds may be “exhausted” if it fails to secure court approval for a £3bn financial lifeline. This would mean that it could be nationalised, at least temporarily.

There are two critical court dates, on December 17 and 20 January, to secure approval for the funds, which some creditors have already agreed to lend it. This would give Thames Water enough funds to keep going until next October.

The update on its finances comes at a critical time for the utility, which is struggling under a £16bn debt pile and supplies 16 million customers across London and the Thames Valley.

Chris Weston, chief executive at Thames Water, said:

Today’s news demonstrates further progress to put Thames Water onto a more stable financial footing as we seek a long-term solution to our financial resilience.

Investors have expressed interest in taking a new stake in the business. However, they are still trying to find out what terms they might get from the beleaguered company, the UK government, and water regulator, Ofwat, if they provide billions of pounds of new equity funding.

One bidder is Covalis Capital, a UK infrastructure investor, with advice from French water contractor Suez. It has offered a £1bn upfront injection of cash, with a further £4bn to be raised from breaking up and selling off parts of Thames before listing the remaining operation.

FTSE 100-listed Ashtead Group, the £28bn equipment hire company, said it intends to move its listing to New York from London, in the latest blow to the UK stock market.

The company, which trades under the name Sunbelt Rentals, was founded in England in 1947 and has been part of the London Stock Exchange since 1986.

It embarked on a series of US acquisitions from the early 2000s, and argues that the US is its “natural” home, saying:

Ashtead is substantially a US business, reporting in US dollars, with almost all the group’s operating profit (98% in 2024) derived from North America, which is also the core growth market for the business.

The group’s executive management team and operational headquarters are based in the US and the vast majority of the group’s employees reside in North America.

The company will seek approval from shareholders for a move to a US primary listing at a general meeting, and expects the move will happen over the next 12-18 months. It also warned of a lower annual profit because of a weak commercial construction market in the US.

The planned departure follows similar moves earlier this year by Paddy Power and the Betfair owner Flutter Entertainment.

The Agenda

• 9.30am GMT: Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference

• 9:45am GMT: UK Treasury committee hearing: FCA CEO Nikhil Rathi and chair Ashley Adler to discuss work of regulator

• 10am GMT: Italian industrial production for October