Canada’s provincial premiers are sharply divided on how to prepare for US trade tariffs, less than a week before Donald Trump takes office with a threat to dramatically reshape the relationship between the two countries.
Canadian officials have sought to defuse the crisis with personal appeals to the president-elect, multimillion-dollar advertising sprees and targeted threats, but the country remains gripped by uncertainty over how Trump’s tariffs might take effect. On Monday, Bloomberg reported that the incoming US administration is weighing hiking tariffs by 2%-5% a month to avoid spiking inflation.
And with Justin Trudeau’s government largely silent on its next steps, Canada’s provincial leaders, keenly aware of the looming economic damage, have taken matters into their own hands.
Alberta’s premier, Danielle Smith, briefly met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida over the weekend, returning home with the grim news that she received no assurances that the president-elect’s team intended to back down on the threat to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods – a measure that economists said would be damaging on both sides of the border.
“I think we need to be prepared that tariffs are coming,” she told reporters.
Smith, the first premier to meet Trump since he first made his tariff threats in November, had hoped to secure “carve-outs” for Canadian oil. Her province exports 3.5m barrels of oil to the US each day.
But, unlike other premiers, the Alberta leader has repeatedly cautioned against domestic calls for retaliation, warning that she “won’t stand” for a possible energy embargo: “You end up hurting yourself in trying to retaliate.”
In contrast, Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, has mused about cutting off electricity exports to the US or targeting American liquor, warning that the United States will “feel pain” if it follows through with tariffs.
But the premier of Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, has voiced support for Smith’s position, echoing the claim that retaliatory tariffs would inflict domestic harm.
“That would be the most divisive conversation and most divisive situation that we would find ourselves in Canada,” Moe told the CBC.
But Ford says Smith is “not speaking for the country” when she opposes a strong response from the provinces.
“That’s Danielle Smith, she’s speaking for Alberta … I’m speaking for Ontario that’s going to get hurt a lot more,” he told the Guardian. “[Trump’s team] aren’t going to go after the oil. They’re coming after Ontario. Let’s be very clear about this – and we’re going to make sure that we do everything we can to protect Ontarian jobs.”
On Tuesday, he warned job losses could reach 500,000 if the tariffs are implemented, underscoring the nature of Ontario’s manufacturing supply chains.
The dispute appears to undercut the united “Team Canada” approach that the country’s leaders have sought and is likely to cause friction when the premiers meet on Wednesday.
The New Democratic party leader, Jagmeet Singh, wants Canada to block exports of critical minerals, including lithium and potash, to deter the United States from imposing tariffs.
“If [Trump] wants to pick a fight with Canada, we have to make sure it’s clear that it’s going to hurt Americans as well,” Singh told a news conference in Ottawa.
Canada’s Conservative former prime minister Stephen Harper has also waded into the issue, telling an American podcast host that Trump’s rhetoric was not the words of a “friend, a partner and an ally”.
The US president-elect has fixated on what he sees as a trade deficit with Canada, suggesting that that country sell roughly C$100bn (US$70bn) more annually to the US.
Harper said Canada sells oil to the United States at a discount because of export constraints.
“It is true that Canada presently has a modest trade surplus with the United States. The reason we do is because you buy so much of our oil and gas,” he said. “In fact, you buy it at a discount to world markets. It’s actually Canada that subsidizes the United States in this regard … Maybe Canadians, if Mr Trump feels this way, should be looking at selling their oil and gas to other people. We certainly have always wanted to do some of that – maybe now’s the time to do it.”
