John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, will warn opposition parties that they will fuel populist forces if they prevent his budget from being passed this month.
In a keynote speech in Edinburgh on Monday to mark the new year, Swinney will say Scottish voters would be astonished and public services damaged if MSPs fail to allow the budget to go through.
“We do not have to look far beyond Scotland’s shores to see what happens when politicians and political parties pursue stalemates instead of progress and delivery,” he is expected to say. “It feeds cynicism and disillusion.
“If people do not see Scotland’s parliament delivering progress for Scotland’s people – if instead it embarks down a path of political posturing and intransigence – then we run a real risk of feeding the forces of anti-politics and of populism.”
Swinney’s Scottish National party runs a minority government after his predecessor, Humza Yousaf, collapsed a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens. It has 62 MSPs, three short of a majority.
His remarks were met by derision from opposition parties, who had been briefed on the speech in advance. They said there was no risk the budget, boosted by a record Treasury grant that Labour estimates is worth £5.2bn, would be blocked.
A senior Scottish Labour source said Swinney was “creating a false narrative” because both the Lib Dems, with four MSPs, and Greens, with seven, had agreed to abstain. That meant the budget would be passed.
“Swinney is playing games,” the source said. “His budget is already through; it’s irrelevant what everybody else does.”
Ross Greer, a Scottish Greens MSP, indicated they were already satisfied with some of Swinney’s budget decisions and had enjoyed constructive discussions with ministers. “This hugely overblown rhetoric from the first minister is a disappointing way to start the new year,” Greer said.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is expected to rebut Swinney’s assertions during a speech in Glasgow also scheduled for Monday morning, intended to revitalise Labour’s faltering campaign to win the Holyrood elections in May 2026.
The SNP’s popularity has soared since Swinney’s draft budget was presented in December; the Treasury’s largesse has allowed the SNP to promise to end the two-child benefit cap and restore universal winter fuel payments for pensioners.
Sarwar will assert that in fact Scotland is stagnating after 17 years of SNP government, which uses “a growing bureaucratic monster” made up of 131 quangos that spent £6.6bn a year.
“Politicians must stop making excuses and passing the buck – they must take responsibility,” he is expected to say.
