Londoners might not bat an eyelid at paying £5 for a pint but the national average is poised to rise above that watermark for the first time, with publicans blaming tax rises introduced by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

The sobering milestone is likely to be reached next month, according to research by Frontier Economics, with the average price of a pint of beer on course to hit £5.01, up from £4.80.

The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), which commissioned the research, said landlords had been left with no choice but to raise prices to offset tax rises that are due to come into force in April.

Pubs will face greater overheads due to an increase in the national minimum wage, a rise in national insurance rates and a decrease in the threshold at which they start paying out national insurance.

Discounts on business rates paid by hospitality firms will also be cut from 75% to 40% from April.

The net cost to the pubs sector of these measures, introduced in last October’s budget, will hit £650m in total, the trade body said. Last week the brewer Shepherd Neame, maker of ales including Spitfire and Bishops Finger, said it would raise its beer prices in response to rising taxes.

Emma McClarkin, the chief executive of the BBPA, said: “The cumulative impact of these taxes and regulations is now plain to see and it is highly unfortunate that the only way many pubs can remain viable is to pass on the array of upcoming costs to consumers.

“No one wants to see the cost of an average pint increase by a further 21p and break the £5 average pint barrier that will be required for pubs to maintain their punishingly slim profit margins.”

Pubs and the wider hospitality sector have struggled to recover from the impact of enforced closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, which left many with crippling debt burdens. The sector’s budding recovery was then hampered by inflation and the accompanying cost of living crisis.

The number of pubs fell below 39,000 for the first time in December 2024 after hundreds of closures, according to the property data company Altus Group.

“It is more urgent than ever that government looks at ways to cap or reduce the costs of doing business so we can keep pubs open, preserve their community value and make sure the price of a pint remains affordable for all,” said McClarkin.