Citi has come up with forecasts for interest rates in the UK, eurozone and Japan:

Here’s Reuters latest story on the situation between Greece and its creditors:

Greece accused the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday of undermining negotiations over the release of more bailout funds needed in the next few weeks to repay debt.

At issue is what measures Athens would take if it fails to reach fiscal targets by 2018. Creditors, including the IMF and European institutions, want those measures made law immediately.

Athens argues that its constitution precludes legislation on a hypothetical event but it has offered to discuss a mechanism of automatic cutbacks.

Government spokeswoman Olga Gerovasili told reporters that the IMF had not accepted the proposal.

“The IMF is making demands which go beyond what was agreed,” Gerovasili said, referring to a 86-billion-euro ($97-billion) deal struck last year and talks to unlock more than five billion euros in bailout funds needed to pay EU and IMF debts by July.

“These demands undermine efforts by both the Greek government and European institutions,” she said.

An IMF spokesman in Washington said the institution had no immediate comment on the matter.

More on Greece:

The interview closes with Draghi saying it will be his pleasure to go to the Bundestag.

On the prospect of Britain leaving the European Union, Draghi says:

I cannot and do not wish to believe that the British would vote to leave, because we are stronger together. But if they do, it should be clear: they would lose the benefits of the single market.

Draghi was also asked about Greece:

BILD: Mr Draghi, in your first interview with BILD four years ago, we spoke a lot about Greece. The country has still not got back on its feet, even though it has received hundreds of billions in emergency loans. When will the madness end?

Draghi: Clearly, last year was an economic setback for Greece. Now everyone is aware that there can be no growth without reforms. And what the country and its citizen need above all is growth. Greece has implemented many reforms in the past months and is committed to the path of reforms.

BILD: Is the euro a part of the solution for Greece, or a part of the problem?

Draghi: Greece’s challenges have little to do with the euro. It would have to implement reforms in any case. In the Eurozone, Greece can do that with the support of its partners. But one thing must be clear: who belongs in the euro area and who does not is not for the ECB to decide. That is a matter for the Member States.

BILD: They are now more fractious than ever. Is that the biggest danger for Europe?

Draghi: We are experiencing several crises which are all interconnected and reinforce each other. That makes it all the more important to resist every kind of nationalism or isolationism. Both are however on the rise. That worries me a lot.

Ahead of a visit to the German parliament, ECB president Mario Draghi has given an interview to Bild newspaper.

Draghi has been criticised in Germany for the ECB’s low interest rate policy, which has affected the country’s savers, and has also been attacked by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

In the interview - which has been repeated in English by Business Insider - he has come out fighting”

Draghi: We are well aware of the situation for savers. And it’s not only in Germany that people have to face low interest rates. But interest rates are low because growth is low and inflation is too low. Think about the alternative: if we raised rates now, it would be bad for the economy and we would unleash deflation, unemployment and recession. The interest on savings comes from growth, so the interest of savers is that inflation stabilises and growth becomes more robust. Besides, many savers benefit from low interest rates as they are also homebuyers, taxpayers, entrepreneurs and workers whose companies are benefiting.

BILD: In Germany the adverse effects are predominant. Making provision for retirement is becoming increasingly difficult…

Draghi: Remember, what counts is what you earn on savings in real terms, i.e. interest minus inflation. This is higher today than it was in the 1990s. At that time you might have had a higher interest rate on your Sparbuch, but we often had an inflation rate that was higher still. So you could buy less with the money you received. Moreover, people can influence how much they get on their savings even in times of low interest rates. They don’t just have to keep the money in savings accounts but can invest in other ways. The Bundesbank has recently shown that the average return on all German household assets is close to 2%.

BILD: So, are the German savers themselves to blame?

Draghi: No. But there are alternatives in investing savings. In the United States savers had to face seven years of zero interest rates. Banks, insurers, the financial system nevertheless still worked. Money was invested in a variety of ways which in the end enabled a decent return.

He also said he did not take the criticism from the likes of Schäuble personally but added:

One thing is clear: the ECB obeys the law, not the politicians. Or, as one of my predecessors put it, it is normal for politicians to comment on our actions. But it would be abnormal if we listened to them.

And he defended the ECB policies, saying they were working:

But we must be patient; investor confidence has not yet been fully restored. For two years, the economy in the euro area has been growing month by month, banks are lending and unemployment is steadily falling,. Meanwhile, euro area countries are now able to buy more German exports again, which, for German companies, is partly making up for the decline in trade with China. But it is a slow process because the crisis was more severe than anything we had since the Second World War.

As to when interest rates would rise, he said:

Quite simple: when the economy is growing more strongly again and inflation rises closer to our objective. Low interest rates today will lead to higher rates tomorrow.

And he said the majority of governments were acting on the necessary reforms “albeit too slowly for my personal taste. All of them would be well advised to do more. But that is not primarily dependent on the ECB and its policies.”

The US Treasury secretary undersecretary for international affairs, Nathan Sheets, has been speaking to a House financial committee, and made some comments on the situation in Greece. Reuters reports:

[He] said that Greece would not have access to the International Monetary Fund’s exceptional lending facilities in the next phase of its bailout, adding that the Treasury supports the IMF’s insistence that the bailout be restructured to make Greece’s debt sustainable with more reforms from Athens and debt relief from European lenders.

David Morrison, senior market strategist at SpreadCo said:

The latest crude inventories from the EIA showed a build of 2 million barrels last week... Crude fell sharply on the news. Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute reported a draw of nearly 1.1 million barrels in US inventories last week. Oil soared on the news as analysts had expected a build of 2.4 million barrels.

Both WTI and Brent are trading at their best levels since November last year. The trigger for the latest leg of this rally was talk of an output freeze by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. But all hopes for a deal collapsed ten days ago in Doha amid general recriminations. Nevertheless, crude has continued to push higher as analysts predict that supply and demand will come into balance earlier than previously calculated.

But it may become more difficult for crude to push on much higher from here. As $50 per barrel becomes a possibility, we should see mothballed US shale production come back on line. On top of that producers will sell forward contracts to lock in prices.

Apple is currently the biggest faller in the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

And here (in Greek) is the call from Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras for a European summit.

Here’s the statement from European Council president Donald Tusk:

Here’s our news story on today’s UK slowdown:

There are some interesting developments around BHS today.

First up, Sky’s Mark Kleinman reports that the stricken high street retailer received a demand for £2.6m in unpaid VAT last week, shortly before it fell into administration.

Another £10m was due by 30 June, to cover the sale of its Oxford Street store, perhaps explaining the timing of its collapse.

And more surprisingly, BHS’s most recent owner is apparently planning to buy the company back!

Former racing driver Dominic Chappell, whose reputation has been rather savaged in recent days, has told the Evening Standard that he is meeting potential backers in America right now.

He’s hoping to come back with a “real deal” to save as many jobs as possible.

Good news? Probably not, given Chappell’s failure to keep the company on the road. A BHS spokesman has already said the idea is “pure fantasy”.

Care to guess the fastest growing area of the UK economy in the last 25 years?

Royal Bank of Scotland have crunched the numbers, and report that management consulting and head office activities have swelled by 500% since 1990*

*- A vintage year, including the Italian World Cup, the end of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership, and the Stone Roses playing Spike Island.

But while consultancy has been booming, manufacturing and mining has been steadily declining, they show:

There’s little cheer in the City today about the latest UK growth figures.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 has dropped by 12 points today to 6272 points, with supermarket chain Tesco shedding 4%.

Mining shares, a handy bellwether for global economic confidence, are down around 2% too.

Joshua Mahony, Market Analyst at IG, says traders are nervous ahead of tonight’s meeting of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and may sound cautious about growth prospects [we get US GDP data tomorrow]

More gloom:

OECD chief Ángel Gurría is now warning reporters in London that the is “no economic upside” for the UK outside the EU.

It’s “delusional” to claim that Brexit would give Britain a stronger trading position, Gurría adds, warning that some firms would quit the UK.

And in an alarming development, the 65-year old Gurría has revealed his full commitment to togetherness....

The OECD has now joined the chorus of international bodies arguing against Brexit, claiming it will hit us in the pocket.

My colleague Larry Elliott reports:

The west’s leading economics thinktank has warned that a British decision to leave the EU in this summer’s referendum would cost each household £2,200 by the end of a decade and continue to impose “a persistent and rising shock” on the UK in the following years.

Adding its voice to negative assessments by the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said a so-called Brexit vote on 23 June would provide a major negative shock to Britain and have ripple effects on the rest of Europe.

“In some respects, Brexit would be akin to a tax on GDP, imposing a persistent and rising cost on the economy that would not be incurred if the UK remained in the EU,” the OECD said.

Full story:

Britain’s economy has hit a ‘soft patch’, warns John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC.

He blames:

...heightened uncertainties about the global economy at the start of the year, which hit the export-oriented manufacturing sector and also took the wind out of the sails of the key business and financial services sector, where growth slowed from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2015 to just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2016.

Brexit uncertainty isn’t helping.

“Uncertainty about the EU referendum outcome may also have had an impact from late February onwards as it became clear there would be an early vote in June. This may have led to some delay in major investment decisions, as indicated by weak construction output in the first quarter.

Hawksworth hopes, though, that growth will rebound later in the year:

Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, questions whether Brexit is really to blame:

The effects of global financial market volatility, stuttering world trade growth and challenges on the high street feel like more obvious explanations for the slowdown.

Still, referendum wobbles could make themselves felt in the coming months, highlighting the continuing downside risks for the economy this year”

Here’s Chancellor George Osborne’s official response to the news that Britain’s economy is slowing....

“It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy.

“Investments ‎and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU.

“Let’s not put the strong economy we’re building at risk, and vote to Remain on June 23.”

Reminder: the OECD report is due out at 10.30 BST, but the group has already called Brexit a ‘bad decision’ this morning.

City economist Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, reckons we can’t blame Brexit fears for the economic slowdown, yet....

Instead, he argues that the financial market turbulence at the start of 2016 hurt confidence.

That is not to say that Brexit uncertainty won’t have an impact on GDP growth – it will.

However, this is likely to be visible via reduced investment and hiring and will show up in Q2 GDP. The first estimate of that will come out in late-July – a month after the actual vote.

For now, 0.4% q/q isn’t terrible – it could have been worse

ONS chief economist Joe Grice says:

“Today’s figures suggest growth has slowed as compared with the pace up to the middle of last year.

Services continue to underpin the economy but other sectors have shown falling output this quarter.

That’s a blow to hopes of rebalancing the UK economy, as manufacturing, construction and agriculture are still smaller than before the financial crisis.

CNBC also predicts that Brexit fears are weighing on UK growth:

The UK economy is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter amid concerns that a forthcoming vote on the country’s membership of the European Union is scaring investors and industry.

Market analysts believe that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released on Wednesday morning will show a slowdown in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.

Some analysts, such as those from Barclays and Pantheon Macroeconomics, thought the slowdown could be more pronounced, however, to 0.3%.

The anticipated slowdown has been attributed by all analysts to the “increasing EU referendum risk,” as Barclays’ analysts said in a note on Wednesday, and fears of a so-called “Brexit” should U.K. voters elect to leave the EU when a referendum is held on June 23.

Shares in Barclays have jumped almost 4% to the top of the London stock market leaderboard.

Although Barclays posted a 33% drop in pre-tax profits this morning, traders are encouraged that the bank has received approaches for its African business (former CEO Bob Diamond is interested, for starters)

Here’s what City economists are saying about this morning’s growth figures, due in an hour’s time.

Howard Archer of IHS Global insight, predicts EU referendum fears will knock back growth to 0.3% for the first quarter (down from 0.6%)

“In particular, this is expected to weigh down on business investment and employment, and it may well also limit consumers’ willingness to splash out on big-ticket items.

Muted global growth and recent financial market volatility will also hamper UK economic activity in the near term at least.”

Tony Cross of Trustnet believes City investors will take the news calmly:

We’ve got UK GDP data later this morning and with the Brexit effect having been seen in other Q1 metrics, this is likely to reflect badly on the headline figures but the market may well be willing to overlook any wobbles here, given the evolving sentiment.