UK growth picked up to 0.4% in the three months to August, from 0.2% in the three months to July, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The think-tank publishes its rolling three-month estimate of UK growth every month to coincide with the industrial production figures.

Amit Kara, head of UK macroeconomic forecasting at NIESR, said the economy was likely to grow by 0.4% in the third quarter (July to September):

Service sector output as well as industrial production appears to have contributed to the uptick in GDP growth.

Looking ahead into the second half of this year and beyond, we see the economy rebalance towards international trade in response to strengthening global growth and a weaker pound and away from domestic demand. Household spending is likely to be weighed down by weak wage growth and investment spending held back by Brexit-related uncertainty.

NIESR says that if the UK economy grows at a pace of 0.4-0.5% per quarter, the Bank of England should raise interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25% in the first quarter of 2018.

Meanwhile in Greece, the visiting French President, Emmanuel Macron, has been chairing a meeting of Greek and French entrepreneurs.

On the second day of his two-day official trip to Athens, the focus has turned firmly to investment. Macron, who is accompanied by 40 prominent business leaders representing companies big and small, told the select gathering of bankers and industry titans that with Greece finally emerging from economic crisis, France would lead fresh efforts to invest in the country.

“France will assume the responsibility in that effort [to attract foreign investment]”, he said, adding it was vital that European investors did business with EU member states such as Greece rather than “the Chinese, Americans and Koreans.” French investors, long in the country, should “give new energy, new dynamism to investments in Greece. We are calling on the Europeans to invest in Greece.”

A former economy minister, Macron has used the visit to applaud Greek reforms under prime minister Alexis Tsipras. He has stressed that, like the leftist leader, he believes Greece is on the road to recovery and growth after seven years of recession. “The Greek economy is turning the page after seven years of crisis,” said Tsipras who also attended the meeting.

The pound is up 0.8% against the dollar at $1.3205, helped by July’s stronger-than-expected manufacturing output growth.

It is the first time the pound has made it above the $1.32 mark in five weeks.

Sterling is also up 0.5% against the euro, at €1.0954

Labour MP Chuka Umunna says the latest trade figures show that Britain’s membership of the single market is crucial to Britain.

Commenting as a leading supporter of the Open Britain campaign group, Umunna said:

Brexiteers repeatedly argued that the upside of crashing the pound would be that we would see a major boost in British exports. But there is scant evidence of this, and Britain’s trade deficit remains stubbornly high.

It is also increasingly clear that any gains in manufacturing exports will not be not enough to offset the damage being done to other sectors as a result of the government’s hard Brexit plans.

A chink of light in today’s figures is that Britain’s deficit in goods trade with other EU countries has narrowed. But this just serves to underline how crucial full membership of the single market is to British jobs and the economy.”

A third release from the ONS this morning shows that UK construction output fell by 0.9% in July, following a 0.1% fall in June.

It was the fourth consecutive monthly fall, and worse than the 0.2% dip predicted by economists.

A fall in house building was a main drag on the sector, doing little to ease concerns over Britain’s housing shortage.

UK manufacturing output grew by 0.5% in July, following zero growth in June and beating expectations of a 0.3% increase.

Kate Davies, senior statistician at the ONS, said the increase was largely down to car manufacturing:

Manufacturing remains relatively subdued since the start of the year, though July showed the first significant monthly growth of 2017, with car production increasing partly thanks to new models rolling off the production lines.

The usual period of summer maintenance of North Sea oil platforms also failed to materialise for a second month running.

A stronger-than-expected July pushed the annual rate of growth in manufacturing to 1.9% in July, from 0.6% in June.

The broader measure of industrial production, which includes mining and utilities as well as manufacturing, rose by 0.2% in July. It was a slowdown compared with 0.5% growth, but bang in line with economists’ expectations.

Britain’s reliance on trade with the EU is highlighted in the latest set of figures from the Office for National Statistics.

Exports of British-made goods to the EU increased by £1.8bn, or 4.4%, in the three months to July (compared with the previous three months). Exports of crude oil, machinery, and transport equipment were the main drivers.

Exports to the rest of the world however fell by £1.7bn, or 3.9%.

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in July, as growth in imports easily outpaced export growth.

The surplus dipped to €19.5bn from €21.2bn in June, after exports just scraped growth of 0.2%, but imports rose by 2.2%. It was the smallest surplus in six months.

Economists were exporting exports to grow by 1.3%, and as such were forecasting a bigger trade surplus of €20.3bn.

The figures suggested that Europe’s largest economy could be feeling the effects of the stronger euro, which makes German-made goods more expensive abroad.

Jack Allen, European economist at Capital Economics, said the data provided an early sign that GDP growth in the wider eurozone might slow in the third quarter (from 0.6% growth in the second).

July’s data on German trade, as well as French and Spanish industrial production, provide some early hints that eurozone GDP growth might slow at ouch in Q3.But the continued strength of activity surveys suggest that any slowdown will be small.

With the exception of Spain’s IBEX, it’s red across the board in Europe this morning, although the losses are limited so far.

• FTSE 100: -0.3% at 7,376

• Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,285

• France’s CAC: -0.2% at 5,102

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1% at 21,702

• Spain’s IBEX: +0.1% at 10,138

• Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 374

Before, we take a look at the equity markets, some UK corporate news.

Trinity Mirror - the publisher of the Daily Mirror - is in exclusive talks to buy the Daily Express, Sunday Express and Daily Star, which are owned by Richard Desmond’s Northern & Shell.

The deal is thought to be worth about £130m and also includes Northern & Shell’s magazines, including OK!, New! and Star.

Here is our full story with all the background on the deal:

Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The cautious tone adopted by Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, at Thursday’s policy press conference failed to put off investors who piled into the euro.

Instead, those buying the euro heard two things: Eurozone growth has been stronger than expected so far this year, so much so that the ECB now expects growth this year to be 2.2% - the strongest in a decade.

The second thing they heard was that the ECB’s governing council will “probably” be ready to make a decision in October on whether to taper its €60bn a month bond-buying programme. Investors assumed this meant the programme will be scaled back to purchases of about €40bn a month from January 2018.

A stronger euro is not helpful to Draghi and his colleagues at the ECB, not least because it dampens inflation which is currently at 1.3%. But a stronger euro is what they’ve got, with Draghi’s comments sending the euro through the €1.20 on Thursday.

Those gains have continued this morning, with the euro currently up 0.3% against the dollar at $1.2060, having hit an earlier high of $1.2092. That’s the strongest in more than two and half years.

A reminder how events unfolded on Thursday:

Also coming up today is a flurry of UK data, all at 09.30:

• Industrial production (July)

• Manufacturing output (July)

• Trade in goods and services (July)

• Construction output (July)