Nick Fletcher 

UK interest rates should be raised without delay, says Bank’s McCafferty – as it happened

Chinese president promises to lower import tariffs, easing fears of trade war
  
  

The Bank of England.
The Bank of England. Photograph: Hannah Mckay/Reuters

Summary

Stock markets are moving higher after a speech by China’s president Xi at the Boao Forum defused some of the fears of a trade war between Beijing and the US. Xi said China would take measures to widen market access for foreign investors and would lower import tariffs on products including cars.

However China is reported to have filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation over the proposed US tariffs on steel and aluminium.

And investors still face a number of other uncertainties, not least the US sanctions on Russia which has hit the rouble hard.

Elsewhere, Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty said the monetary policy committee should not dally over raising UK interest rates given wage growth and the strength of the global economy. The comments gave a lift to the pound.

Meanwhile European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny said it was time to “normalise” its monetary policy.

And in the US, producer prices rose by more than expected in March, giving more ammunition to the Federal Reserve to increase borrowing costs.

On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Wall Street opens higher

With trade war fears easing after the overnight speech from Chinese president Xi, US markets have opened sharply higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 390 points or 1.63% higher, while the S&P 500 is up 1.36% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 1.65%.

Commenting on the Xi speech to Reuters, strategist Art Hogan at Wunderlich Securities in New York said:

The expectation was [the Xi speech] could have gone one of two ways: he could have been aggressive about US tariffs or been conciliatory, and it feels like he’s more conciliatory.

Updated

Back with the Boao Forum in China, and the managing director of the International Monetary Fund has also had talks with president Xi:

US producer prices rise by more than expected

Stronger than forecast US producer price figures for March give more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again later this year.

The Fed has indicated it could increased borrowing costs another two times in 2018 but some expect another rise on top of that if the economic data merits it.

So a 0.3% rise in the producer price index last month adds fuel to those expectations. That is an increase from the 0.2% rise in February, and higher than analyst forecasts of 0.1%. The year on year increase in March was 3%, up from 2.8% in the previous month and ahead of the 2.9% expected.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, rose to 1.6% after being at 1.5% for four months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released the data, said:

A major factor in the March advance in prices for final demand services was the index for outpatient care (partial), which climbed 0.4 percent. The indexes for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; cable and satellite subscriber services; airline passenger services; food and alcohol wholesaling; and hospital inpatient care also moved higher. In contrast, margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 10.4 percent. The indexes for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing and wireless telecommunications services also decreased.

Updated

As a sign things are a little calmer on the stock markets at the moment, the VIX volatility index - which had been rising in recent days - is currently down 5% at 20.61.

That is not to say there are not a number of uncertainties for investors, from the US/China trade dispute, the situation in Syria, Russian sanctions and the latest on the Mueller investigation in the US.

Updated

European stock markets are holding on to their gains, and Wall Street is still expected to open sharplyhigher. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

The Dow Jones is all set to leap 320 points after the bell, a chunky jump that would take the beleaguered index to 24300, pushing it towards the top end of its recent trading bracket.

However, it is important to note that the US open and close can often operate in completely different universes, especially if Trump gives into his urge to cause a bit of Twitter chaos.

Brexit is getting real:

The pound has hit a day’s high of $1.4179, up 0.38% on the talk of further interest rate rises. David Cheetham, chief market analyst at XTB, said:

Sterling has moved higher after some hawkish comments from BoE member McCafferty in which he cautioned fellow rate-setters against dallying when it comes to further tightening monetary policy. McCafferty was one of two dissenters who called for higher rates at the last meeting when the bank decided to keep its policy unchanged and his recent comments have pushed the pound/dollar rate to its highest level in more than a fortnight.

With the bank expected to raise rates next month, remarks from the voting members will take on a greater importance in the coming weeks with the previous hike in November - the first such increase in more than a decade - being widely telegraphed in advance.

Despite the slump in the rouble, Russia’s central bank has no plans to introduce any measures to reduce volatility.

The bank’s first deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov said the situation with the rouble was “adequate”, according to Reuters.

And back with the effects of the US sanctions on Russian companies:

At the time London stock exchange chief executive Xavier Rolet said:

We warmly congratulate Mr Sokov and his management team on their successful IPO today. Welcoming En+ Group to London Stock Exchange is a significant milestone which underlines the City’s position as the leading global listing venue for international companies and investors’ appetite for Russian issuers. With 100 Russian and CIS businesses listed and traded on London’s markets, with a total capitalisation of over $550 billion, London is a strong partner to Russian companies seeking access to global investor capital, as well as an open and dynamic place to do business.

And the company was invited to open trading on the day it listed in November:

Bank of England's chief economist defends low interest rate policy

The average British household benefited from the Bank of England’s emergency interest rate cut in the financial crisis to the tune of almost £9,000 in pay and £90,000 in household wealth, according to its chief economist.

Speaking in Australia, Andy Haldane is defending some of the benefits from low interest rates just before Threadneedle Street looks to increase them to levels unseen since the 2008 crash began.

According to him, the impact of low rates and quantitative easing has been to keep more people in work - helping them with their earnings - and to keep borrowing costs cheap to help cut mortgage costs. Asset prices have also been inflated, helping those who held them - even if they got less on their cash savings held in bank accounts.

The significance of the loose monetary policy from the Bank is so significant, he says, that GDP in the UK would have been around 8% lower, unemployment 4 percentage points higher and the level of consumer prices 20% lower without its package to cut rates to 0.5% and inject £435bn into the economy through QE.

Just 4% of households were made £500 or more worse off when taking income and wealth effects together, he says.

Updated

And here is the dramatic movement in the rouble - it shows the rise in the number of roubles needed to buy one dollar:

Meanwhile the Russian rouble continues to come under pressure following the US sanctions against a number of its companies.

The currency is down around 4% against the dollar to 63.28, its second day of heavy losses and its lowest level since December 2016.

China files WTO complaint against US steel and aluminium tariffs

And there is another twist in the trade dispute between the US and China. Associated Press reports:

China is filing a complaint with the World Trade Organisation against U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium products.

The Geneva-based trade body said on Tuesday that China has requested 60 days of consultations with the United States to resolve the dispute.

If the two sides can’t agree on a solution, the next step could be for Beijing to request a ruling from a panel of trade experts.

China claims the duties of 25 percent on imports of steel and 10 percent on imports of aluminum products breach international trade rules.

Time to normalise monetary policy - ECB's Nowotny

The Bank of England is not the only central bank to be considering reigning in the financial stimulus - low interest rates and quantitative easing - that have supported stock markets since the financial crisis.

Speaking in London, European Central Bank policymaker and Bank of Austria governor Ewald Nowotny said it was now time to “start the gradual normalisation of monetary policy.” He said:

We are at an important turning point in monetary policy. We must normalise policy not too soon but not too late.

He said there was the risk of stifling the recovery if the ECB tightened monetary policy too soon, but also a risk of an asset boom if it tightened too late.

Updated

Sterling has edged to a two week high after the comments from Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty that there should be no delay in raising interest rates.

The pound hit $1.4168 against the dollar in the wake of the remarks, up 0.28%. Against the euro sterling is 0.13% better at €1.1485.

Don't dally over interest rate rise - BoE's McCafferty

UK interest rates should be raised again without delay, a leading Bank of England policymaker has said.

After its meeting last month the Bank hinted at an increase in May, and in an interview with Reuters, Ian McCafferty said the prospect of faster pay rises and a strong pick-up in the global economy emphasised the need for dearer borrowing costs before long.

McCafferty said that wage growth, which has lagged inflation for much of the past decade, could prove to be stronger than many of his colleagues on the monetary policy committee believed. He told Reuters:

We shouldn’t dally when it comes to tightening policy modestly,.

Reuters adds:

McCafferty said he could not be certain about whether to vote again for a rate rise until May’s policy meeting, but there had been no data or Brexit developments so far to make him think he was wrong in March to vote to raise rates to 0.75 percent.

The former chief economic adviser to the Confederation of British Industry has been in the minority of BoE policymakers pushing for a rate hike previously in the past four years.

Speaking in his office in the BoE on Monday... McCafferty said that as well as the boost from the world economy’s strong recovery, he thought there was now no slack left in Britain’s labour market.

Unemployment at its lowest rate since 1975, skill shortages and signs that employers were resorting to higher wage offers to lure staff from rival firms or stop them from leaving would also create inflation pressure.

“It’s not wages suddenly bursting away, but it gives you a modest upside risk,” said McCafferty, whose term at the central bank ends in August.

And the “jury is still out” on whether the inflationary hit from the fall in the value of the pound after the Brexit vote in 2016 would fade as quickly as expected, he said.

“On balance, those three arguments give me some potential modest upside risks to the (inflation) forecasts,” McCafferty said.

While the BoE had been wrong in the past about wages finally gaining momentum, labour market surveys so far this year showed that the recent recovery in the headline rate of growth of pay to nearly 3 percent looked more sustainable this time, he said.

Often called one of the BoE’s most hawkish policymakers, McCafferty said there had been a case for following up November’s rate move with another hike as early as February.

But he held off to avoid surprising households who had been told by the BoE that it plans to raise rates only gradually...

On Brexit, McCafferty said British exporters remained in “a sweet spot”, helped by the weakness of the pound while concerns that they might lose business with supply chain customers elsewhere in the EU had so far proven overdone.

But there were signs that British companies were wary about making long-term investments, and potential Brexit stumbling blocks would remain, he said.

“That’s going to be a permanent feature of the landscape,” McCafferty said.

Updated

Mining shares are leading the way in London, while news that US regulators have approved Bayer’s takeover of Monsanto and a positive update from LVMH have also helped sentiment.

But ahead of the start of the US reporting season, the main support for the market in early trading is Chinese president Xi’s speech at Boao. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale said:

What President Xi didn’t say at the Boao Forum matters more than what he did. There are plenty of reforms to come, including reduced auto tariffs, but no details. But the lack of any ramping-up of the US/Chinese trade-war-by-rhetoric was the key for equities to rally.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at interactive investor said:

President Xi’s speech overnight appears to have struck the right tone, providing some relief for investors who have been buffeted by the recent war of words between Trump and China over trade. While there was already an overwhelming sense that Chinese officials were keen to achieve a negotiated settlement before the proposed tariffs do any lasting damage to either the Chinese or US economies, today’s speech was the clearest indication yet that China is prepared to take concrete steps to address some of Trump’s chief criticisms. The big question is whether President Trump will now take the olive branch offered by Xi’s conciliatory approach and dial down the rhetoric from his side too.

Corporate profits have taken a back seat to trade tensions and increased volatility over the past few weeks, but as the US earnings season starts in earnest this week, they will take on huge significance. Equities received a huge boost when the US tax reform bill was signed into law in December and investors will want to see that this is feeding through to the bottom line to justify their continued faith. A good earnings season would do a lot to regain some equilibrium and provide some much-needed relief and calm for beleaguered investors.

Updated

European markets lifted by Xi speech

As fears of a trade war between China and the US ease - for the moment - after president Xi’s speech overnight, European markets have opened in a positive mood.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.5% or 41 points, while Germany’s Dax has added just over 1%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.8% and Spain’s Ibex is 0.6% better.

And the US futures are predicting the Dow Jones Industrial Average - which added just 0.19% in the end on Monday - will open around 360 points higher or 1.5%.

More fallout from the US imposition of sanctions on various Russian companies.

Glencore, which has various contracts with Russia’s Rusal for the purchase of aluminium, says it is now evaluating these contracts.

Glencore boss Ivan Glasenberg has resigned from the Rusal board, and a deal for Glencore to swap its shares in Rusal for global depository receipts in EN+ - which manages the assets of Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska - will not now go ahead.

Summary

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A keynote speech by Chinese president Xi Jinping at the Boao Asian forum overnight has eased some of the concerns about a possible trade war with the US.

America had proposed slapping tariffs on $50bn - or even $100bn - worth of Chinese products which prompted a tit-for-tat response from Beijing. Weekend comments from Donald Trump seemed to suggest the two sides might be able to reach a compromise, but on Monday, in typical fashion, the US president came out fighting again:

So Xi’s comments at Boao were awaited with some trepidation. Investors were hoping to hear some positive news on China opening up its markets but were also wary of what he might say about Trump’s threats.

In the event Xi seemed to make some veiled criticisms of the US but also said China would take measures to widen market access for foreign investors and would lower import tariffs on products including, yes, cars.

Here is our report on the speech:

The news made for a positive performance on Asian stock markets, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.74%, and this is likely to translate into an opening rise in Europe:

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

Once again it is the background noise that is driving short term sentiment with big swings intraday making the price action difficult to predict. [Xi’s] pledges to open up China’s economy and lower import tariffs, while nothing particularly new, sent Asia markets higher and are likely to translate into a positive European open this morning. Whether they translate into anything other than words is another story but for now they appear to signal a willingness for China to move forward the discussions on trade with the US.

But things are likely to remain volatile. For a start, as we know, Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, so his response to Xi’s comments will be interesting.

Plus there are wider issues to unsettle investors. The imposition of sanctions by the US on a number of Russian companies sent the country’s market sharply lower on Monday, while growing tensions over Syria are also causing concern. The recent appointment of the hawkish John Bolton as the US national security advisor may not help matters. There is also the continuing dispute between the UK and Russia over the Salisbury poisoning.

In the US itself, there are more uncertainties. The country faces a $1trn deficit, while Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen had his office raided by the FBI. Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said:

The raid was in connection with payments to adult star Stormy Daniels and conducted by the Justice Department with help from a referral from the Mueller investigation. The escalation that people are watching out for is that Trump responds by firing Robert Mueller. Political fireworks at home would put extra pressure on delicate trade negotiations.

Elsewhere it is another fairly quiet day on the economic and corporate front, ahead of the start of the big US earnings season later this week.

Agenda:

8.30 BST: Bank of England’s Ian McCafferty interview with Thomson Reuters

10.30 BST: Speech by Bank of England’s Andy Haldane in Melbourne

13.30 BST: US producer prices index

Updated

 

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