Graeme Wearden 

US trade deficit hits five-month high, as emerging markets slide – as it happened

All the day’s economic and financial news, as America’s trade gap with the rest of the world widens
  
  

Old Street Roundabout, City Road, London, England.
Old Street Roundabout, City Road, London, England. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

And finally, here’s our round-up of the slide in emerging market stocks today, and the factors behind it:

Goodnight! GW

Emerging markets have fallen into a bear market tonight, the FT reports.

That means stocks in developing countries, such as Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina and Turkey, have fallen 20% from their recent peak.

As the FT puts it:

The FTSE Emerging index of nearly 800 of the biggest companies in the developing world fell 1.6 per cent, its sixth straight decline and the biggest in three weeks, which pushed the benchmark to its lowest since July 2017.

They also flag up that currencies, as well as equities, are feeling the strain against the US dollar:

Indonesia’s rupiah traded close to its weakest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, while the South African rand slipped to a record low after data on Tuesday showed the country’s economy had contracted for the first time since 2009, exacerbating concerns over the developing world more broadly.

Europe’s major stock markets also had a bad day today, amid the ripples from the emerging markets rout.

In London, the FTSE 100 shed 74 points, or 1%, to 7,383 - its lowest close since April (partly due to the sterling rally)

But there were bigger losses in Europe, with the French CAC down 1.5% and Germany’s DAX shedding 1.4%.

David Madden of CMC Markets says:

worries about global trading relationships and the decline in emerging market economies are hurting market confidence.

Lagarde: We've not learned all the lessons from the financial crisis

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has written a blogpost to mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

In it, she warns that not enough has been done to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis, or to avoid another one.

In the article, she says:

  • “We have come a long way, but not far enough. The system is safer, but not safe enough. Growth has rebounded but is not shared enough.”
  • “Looking back today, the pressure points seem obvious. But they were less obvious at the time. Most economists failed to predict what was coming. It is a sobering lesson in groupthink.”
  • “If the policy response to these pre-crisis risks was inadequate, I would say that the immediate policy response to the crisis was impressive. The governments of the major economies represented by the G20 coordinated policies on a global scale. … Indeed, the importance of international cooperation in meeting 21st century challenges is one of the enduring lessons of the crisis.”

Lagarde also suggests that male dominance of Wall Street was a factor - a few more sisters at the top could have made a big difference....

More here:

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, flags up that the South African rand is being dragged lower by today’s emerging market selloff.

The spike in the pound has hit shares in London (as it makes overseas earnings in foreign currencies less valuable).

The FTSE 100 is now down by 93 points, or 1.25%, in late trading.

Newsflash from Ottawa: The Bank of Canada has left Canadian interest rates on hold, at 1.5%.

The BoC also warns that trade uncertainty is hurting Canada’s economy:

Elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower. Meanwhile, financial stresses have intensified in certain emerging market economies, but with limited spillovers to other countries.

Updated

Boom! The pound has just jumped on the foreign exchange markets, on report of a Brexit breakthrough.

But investors should stay cautious - there’s nothing official at this stage.

Bloomberg is reporting that Germany is ready to accept a less-detailed agreement on future ties between the UK and the European Union, to get a deal done.

The UK, for its part, would accept a more vague statement of intent on the future relationship, according to anonymous sources quoted by the newswire.

If true, this would suggest the two sides are amenable to unblocking the current deadlock. This could cut the risk that Britain crashes out of the EU next March without a deal.

Traders reacted quickly, sending the pound back to $1.296 - its highest level this week.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says there are two reasons to treat the news cautiously:

First, Germany does not – despite its clear dominance of the bloc economically - actually speak for the EU position. Michel Barnier may well have something to say about this report. As might Theresa May.

Second, we’ve heard these kinds of rumours lift the pound before and it should be treated with caution. There is a strong chance that this rally could run out of steam and retrace in fairly short order.

But, it nevertheless it does still point to a degree of softening in the general tone of talks and that a deal is more likely than not.

Both the widening American trade gap, and the slide in emerging markets today, can be partly blamed on the stronger US dollar.

That’s due to the robust US economy, and the prospect of higher interest rates to curb inflation -- as Donald Trump’s tax cuts give the economy a sugar rush.

Quite...

Mexican politician Jorge Guajardo believes Donald Trump’s attacks on America’s trading partners are partly to blame for the widening US trade gap:

White House insiders might want to hide today’s trade data from the president...

Not only has the US trade deficit widened, but the gap with Canada has hit a 10-year high. This surplus widened to 5.3bn Canadian dollars in July, from C$4.1 billion the previous month,

This may make Trump even more determined to reach a new North American trade deal, as NAFTA talks restart in Washington.

Bloomberg says:

The figures released Wednesday in Ottawa are likely to play into the resumption of bilateral talks in Washington over the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump has signed a new deal with Mexico and has threatened to leave Canada out and impose stiff auto tariffs if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government doesn’t make concessions.

Even the metal products targeted by U.S. tariffs showed some resilience in the latest figures. Canadian shipments of steel climbed 16 percent in July after a 36 percent drop in June, while a 2 percent fall in aluminum still left those exports 8.1 percent higher than they were a year prior.

US trade deficit hits five-month high

Newsflash: America’s trade deficit has widened to a five-month high, in a blow to Donald Trump’s attempts to cut it.

US imports jumped by $2.2bn to $261bn in July, according to the latest trade data from the Census Bureau.

Exports shrank by $2.1bn, though, to around $211bn, due to lower sales of aircraft and soybeans (which now face tariffs when sold to China).

This drove America’s overall trade deficit up to over $50bn.

The White House won’t be pleased to see that America’s goods trade deficit with China surged 10% to a record $36.8 billion.

So what’s happening?

The Wall Street Journal’s theory is that tax cuts and higher federal spending “goosed up” domestic demand, while a cooling economy overseas hampered exports.

Updated

Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments, blames trade war anxiety and the strengthening US dollar for today’s selloff:

“Global stock markets continue to be volatile as the trade dispute between the United States and China continues to escalate. Slowing Chinese growth has unsettled investors as the impact of the ongoing trade dispute continues to impact the Chinese economy.

Asian stocks are currently lower with all major markets recording losses. The Shanghai Composite index, Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI all made losses in light on going spat between the two largest economies. The Indonesian Index is down 3.7% as downward pressure on EMs continues. European markets have also opened lower, due to the same concerns.

Emerging markets are also continuing to suffer as the likes of Turkish inflation are causing concern amongst investors. Most EM currencies are under pressure with today concerns being focused on Indonesia, Argentina and South Africa. As a result of these risky economies and markets, the dollar has become a safe haven for many, allowing it to surge to its latest high” It feels as if the dollar and Amazon stock price is the only asset going up!

Updated

Here’s Dean Popplewell of City firm OANDA on the losses across emerging markets today:

Soured sentiment has left several Asian stock markets with their biggest declines in a fortnight, at least since the bout of EM worries that were fuelled by the TRY’s plunge.

In Japan, equities held up better than most, perhaps helped by the overnight yen softness (¥111.47). Nevertheless, investors remain worried that Sino-U.S tariff war could escalate weighed on sentiment. The Nikkei share average dropped -0.51% for a fourth consecutive session while the broader Topix fell -0.77%.

Down-under, Aussie shares extended their losses for a fifth consecutive session overnight, closing down -1%, brushing aside a robust economic growth report (Q2 GDP +0.9% vs. +0.7%) as materials stocks slid on weaker commodity prices. In S. Korea, the Kospi plunged -1.03% as trade war fears intensify.

In Hong Kong, stocks posted their biggest loss in 11-weeks on growth and trade war fears. Overnight, investors’ dumped property, energy and tech stocks amid worries about China’s economy and the Sino-U.S trade war. The Hang Seng index fell -2.6%, while the China Enterprises Index lost -2.3%.

Emerging market currencies are also having a bad day, with most falling against the US dollar today:

Emerging market selloff picks up pace

Back in the financial world, the rout in emerging markets is gathering pace.

Emerging stock markets across the globe are in the red, as a nasty cocktail of threats hit equities.

The selloff in Asia overnight has now spread to the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s stock market is the worst performer, plunging more than 4% at the last count.

Indonesia’s market has slumped by 3.7%, and there are losses from Shanghai and Hong Kong to Mumbai, Cairo and Johannesburg.

Shares are being hit by several factors, including:

  • The slowdown in China’s service sector last month
  • The global impact of the US-China trade war, and the prospect that America implements tariffs on an extra $200bn of Chinese imports later this week
  • The strengthening US dollar, which is sucking capital out of emerging markets and pushing up the cost of repaying debts taken out in dollars

There are also isolated individual factors. South Africa fell into recession yesterday, while Argentina is pushing the IMF for a larger bailout to support its economy.

So investors are fretting that the global economy may slow, especially if more emerging markets follow Argentina and Turkey into financial crisis.

As Christoph Barraud, an economist at Paris-based brokerage Market Securities, put it:

“Until last month people were focusing on U.S. company earnings but now they are looking closely at what’s happening in emerging markets, at the trade war and the fact that the United States is likely to implement another wave of tariffs against China.

If you look at global growth, more and more signs are that it will slow in coming months.”

Updated

Cambridge, Oxford, Warrington, Reading and Swindon are all feeling the brunt of the worker shortage, apparently.

Jobs site Adzuna says each of these cities have more than 15 vacancies for every jobseeker, putting labour in a strong position (theoretically, anyway).

Despite the hiring struggle, the UK economy is on track to grow by 0.4% in the current quarter, Markit estimates.

That would match the UK’s growth rate in April-June, and beat some City forecasts.

But still, it would be fairly modest growth compared to the years before the EU referendum....

Morgan Stanley say they “continue to anticipate weakness in the economy going forward, as we enter the final stretch of Brexit negotiations.”

Updated

Duncan Brock, group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, is concerned that UK firms can’t find the staff they need.

Here’s his take on the PMI report:

“The services sector was a little more upbeat than the other sectors this month maintaining a steady level of activity growth, and the number of new orders ticked higher.

“Despite this, optimism was more subdued and lower than the survey average. With the weakest business optimism since March, uncertainty around the UK’s decision to leave the EU continued to dampen client operations. Struggles around securing talent and the right skills were also a drag on a sector highly-dependent on trained staff even though job creation rose to its highest levels for half a year.

Updated

UK business mood "darkens" as Brexit looms

UK firms are also suffering from uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EU.

Business confidence about future prospects hit the lowest level since March, today’s PMI report shows.

That’s due to “political uncertainty and the unpredictable impact of Brexit on clients’ business operations.”

Chris Williamson of Markit adds:

“Business expectations for the year ahead meanwhile sank markedly lower, down across all three sectors to one of the lowest levels seen since the EU referendum, largely reflecting increased anxiety over Brexit negotiations.

“Given the increasingly unbalanced nature of growth and the darkening business mood, risks to the immediate outlook seem tilted to the downside.”

Good news for UK workers -- the staff shortage is forcing some services firms to pay them more.

Markit says:

Difficulties recruiting suitably skilled staff contributed to higher salary payments in August.

Updated

UK service sector grows, but firms struggle to find staff

Breaking: Growth in Britain’s service sector rose last month...but firms are finding it harder to recruit the workers they need.

That’s according to data firm Markit’s monthly survey of Britain’s services companies.

Purchasing managers from large and small UK service firms reported that business activity rose at a faster rate in August, partly thanks to a boost in new work.

However, many also said that “a lack of suitably skilled candidates to fill vacancies had held back staff hiring”. That staff shortage held some firms back.

Markit explains:

Backlogs of work increased for the fourth month running in August, which pointed to sustained pressure on operating capacity at service sector companies. A number of firms linked rising volumes of unfinished business to difficulties replacing departing staff.

This may be a sign that EU workers are heading home ahead of Brexit, or that potential migrants aren’t coming over the UK at all. Last month’s unemployment figures showed a record annual decline in migrants from the European Union to the UK.

Britain’s unemployment rate is also at a 43-year low, so firms may simply be suffering from a tight labour market.

Overall, Markit’s UK service PMI jumped to 54.3 in August, up from 53.5 in July -- the second highest level since February. That shows faster growth.

More to follow....

Updated

UK car sales rose in August

Just in: Britain’s car sales rose by almost a quarter in August.

Just over 94 thousand new cars were registered in the UK last month, a jump of 23.1% compared to August 2017.

That sounds impressive... until you remember that August is typically a quiet month for car sales (drivers who wait until September will get the new year’s number plate).

Despite this jump, registrations in 2018 are still 4.2% lower than this stage last year, according to the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

But still, demand for hybrid and plug-in cars surged by 88.7%. One in 12 buyers chose an electric car - a new record.

The SMMT adds:

Demand was up across the board, with consumers and fleets boosting year-on-year registrations by 23.3% and 19.7% respectively, while the smaller business sector rose 166.4%, equivalent to an uplift of around 1,500 units against August last year.

Superminis remained the most popular buy, followed by small family and dual purpose cars, with the luxury saloon and city car segments recording the most notable growth, up 120.8% and 39.6%.

European companies are also worried about trade wars.

Markit’s new survey of eurozone purchasing managers, just released, show that business expectations in the service sector hit a 21-month low in August. It blamed “geo-political trade tensions”.

More encouragingly, the euro-area private sector kept growing last month. But as this chart shows, Italy moved worryingly close to stagnation (which would be a PMI of 50).

Commodity prices are also being hit by the drop in Chinese company growth.

The price of copper in Shanghai has hit a 14-month low, while prices in London are down 2.6%.

This is dragging down the share prices of mining giants, and thus pulling Britain’s FTSE 100 down by 0.4% in early trading.

Global stock markets are in the red this morning, as the slowdown across China’s companies worries investors.

The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 1.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has shed 2.7%.

Most European markets have opened lower too, with the Stoxx 600 index of major EU companies down almost 0.5%.

Investors are fretting about trade, as Donald Trump could sign off an extra $200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming days.

US officials are also due to resume trade talks with Canada later today, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

The main preoccupation for investors continues to be on whether the US is serious about arriving at some form of deal with Canada over NAFTA in the wake of President Trump’s tweets at the weekend, that it wasn’t and isn’t a political necessity to get a deal

In addition to that anxiety levels are growing ahead of the weekend and the possible imposition of another $200bn worth of tariffs on Chinese goods later this week.

Hong Kong’s companies are also feeling a chill from the US-China trade wars.

Growth across Hong Kong’s private sector declined in August, data firm Markit says. Output and new orders both shrank, forcing job cuts.

It adds:

Notably, export sales to China fell again amid escalating trade tensions. Companies remained pessimistic about future output, which was also accompanied by another drop in purchasing activity and input inventories. Consequently, firms reduced selling prices to support sales despite a further rise in input costs. Both employment and backlogs continued to decline.

Introduction: Chinese service sector growth hits 10-month low

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business

Trade war anxiety is growing this morning, after China’s companies posted disappointing growth.

Business activity growth across China hit a five-month low in August, a new survey from data firm Caixin shows. The country’s service sector led the slowdown, with growth hitting a 10-month low.

Companies reported that new business growth was weak, forcing factory bosses to cut jobs. Business confidence was also subdued.

Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, says China’s economic growth is on a “downward trajectory”, adding:

Inflationary pressures were pronounced as increases in both input prices and output prices accelerated. The future output sub-index went up after falling in August, which was likely boosted by the fine-tuning of macro policies. The employment sub-index was unchanged from July’s reading and remained in contraction territory.

“August’s PMI readings indicated that the effects of expansionary credit policy and active fiscal policy are yet to kick in. Signs of stagnation emerged as upward pressure on prices remained even though demand weakened at a faster rate.”

The report suggests that the trade dispute with America is hitting demand and confidence. The US has already imposed tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports, with president Donald Trump threatening more.

Caixin’s Composite Output Index, which measures growth across Chinese companies, fell to a five- month low of 52.0 in August, with the services PMI hitting just 51.5 - the lowest since October 2017 (50 = stagnation).

Here are the key points from the report:

  • Services activity growth edges down to ten-month low, while manufacturing output increases at faster pace
  • Composite new work expands at weakest pace for over two years
  • Steeper rises in input costs across both the manufacturing and service sectors

Reaction to follow....

Later today we discover how Britain, and the eurozone’s, service sector firms fared in August -- as company bosses watched the clock tick towards Brexit in March 2019.

Also coming up today...

Ten years after the financial crisis, a UK thinktank is proposing some radical changes to fix the economy’s problems. The IPPR is calling for higher wages, more government spending on infrastructure, extra wealth taxes and more power for workers, to tackle growing inequality.

The report comes out later today. Here’s the full story:

The agenda

  • 9am BST: UK new car registrations for August
  • 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for August
  • 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for August
  • 1.30pm BST: US trade figures for July
  • 3pm BST: Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision

Updated

 

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