Here are the main points from the prime minister’s Commons statement:

• Theresa May has, for the third time in less than a fortnight, spent more than two hours in the Commons hearing MPs from all sides of the Commons rubbishing her Brexit deal. Today the criticism was probably less personal, but nevertheless it was overwhelming, and the scale of the opposition made it extremely hard to see how she could turn opinion around in time for the vote, now scheduled for a fortnight tomorrow.

• May said she was wrong to complain about EU workers being able to “jump the queue” under free market rules in a speech to the CBI last week. She made the rare admission that she had made a mistake in response to a question from the SNP’s Philippa Whitford, who said:

Last week, the prime minister managed to insult and upset over 3 million European citizens who live and work in this country. Over 150,000 of them, like my German husband, a GP here for over 30 years, felt absolutely thrown away when they have spent decades here looking after us when we’re ill. Will the prime minister take this opportunity perhaps to apologise for her thoughtless and insulting comments?

In response May said:

I should not have used that language in that speech. The point I was making was a simple one … I think there was a point that for most people here in the United Kingdom, they want to see people coming to this country with the skills and wanting to make a contribution – her husband has made a contribution as a GP here in this country.

• May said she would resist attempts by France to use the threat of keeping the UK in the backstop as a means of forcing the UK to open its waters to EU fishing crews. She said:

The EU have maintained throughout this process that they want to link overall access to markets to access to fisheries. They failed in the withdrawal agreement and they failed again in the political declaration. It is no surprise some are already trying to lay down markers again for the future relationship. They should be getting used to the answer by now: it is not going to happen.

• She told MPs that “no one knows what will happen if this deal doesn’t pass”. But, despite being asked repeatedly what her “plan B” was if she were to lose the vote, she refused to engage with the question, instead just insisting that her deal was a good one and that no alternative was available. She restated her opposition to holding a second referendum. She ruled out going for a Norway or Norway-plus Brexit (keeping the UK in the single market, or the single market and the customs union), saying this was not compatible with the EU referendum result. And she also ruled out suspending article 50 to delay Brexit (something that would require the agreement of the EU), saying the UK would be leaving the EU on 29 March next year. The FT’s Henry Mance sums up the consequences of this quite well.

• May insisted that there could be no Brexit deal without a backstop. She said:

Put simply, there is no deal that comes without a backstop, and without a backstop there is no deal.

• May floated the prospect of Brexit becoming harder over time. This came in her opening passage, when she was speaking about the backstop. She said:

Furthermore, as a result of the changes we have negotiated, the legal text is now also clear that once the backstop has been superseded, it shall “cease to apply”. So if a future parliament decided to then move from an initially deep trade relationship to a looser one, the backstop could not return.

• She confirmed that the vote on the deal will take place on Tuesday 11 December. But this only happened after MPs had already seen the news in a leaked letter posted on Twitter.

• She suggested economic forecasts were unreliable. She told MPs:

I’m tempted to say this, though … I think it would be an interesting debate for this house, the extent to which economic forecasts can actually be described as facts.

• She claimed that the UK could be better off outside the EU, and said that EU membership was not the only factor in deciding economic success. She said:

The question as to our future. I do believe that we can be better off outside the European Union. But the problem is there are those who think that the only factor that determines how well off we are in the future is whether or not we are members of the European Union. I differ. Our future in our hands. It will be our decisions in many areas that will determine our prosperity for the future.

• She said the government was standing by Gibraltar. She said:

Our message to the people of Gibraltar is clear: we will always stand by you, we are proud Gibraltar is British, and our position on sovereignty has not and will not change.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Business Insider’s Adam Payne has got hold of a letter from Julian Smith, the chief whip, to Tory MPs saying that five days will be set aside for the Brexit deal debate, with the vote scheduled for Tuesday 11 December.

Cheryl Gillan, the Conservative MP, asks if May will rule out extending article 50.

May says she is clear that she will not extend article 50.

• May says she will not extend article 50.

This is significant because, if the UK did want to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal with the EU, it is almost certain that article 50 would have to be extended.

The SNP’s Philippa Whitford criticises May for saying EU nationals were able to “jump the queue” under current rules. She says that was insulting to people such as her husband, a German national and a doctor who has been in the UK for 30 years making a contribution.

May says she should not have used that phrase in her speech to the CBI.

I should not have used that language in that speech.

She says she was just trying to make a simple point: that people want an immigration system that decides if people should enter the country based on the contribution they can make.

A reminder: this is what May said in her speech to the CBI a week ago today.

It will no longer be the case that EU nationals, regardless of the skills or experience they have to offer, can jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi. Instead of a system based on where a person is from, we will have one that is built around the talents and skills a person has to offer.

It was a very odd thing to say to the CBI, which is pro-immigration, and the CBI subsequently criticised her for it – as did many others.

May says economic forecasts are so unreliable that there is a debate to be had about whether they count as facts.

• May suggests economic forecasts are unreliable.

Corbyn says ploughing on is not stoic. “It is an act of national self harm.”

He says May needs to prepare a plan B. There is a deal that could win the support of this House, “based on a comprehensive customs union, a strong single market deal that protects rights at work and environmental safeguards”.

• Corbyn urges May to prepare a plan B, saying softer Brexit could win support of Commons.

The House will have to reject this deal, he says.

May says she knows there are concerns over the backstop.

But both sides are committed to working to try to avoid the backstop.

If it were to become necessary, the government would have a choice between the backstop and extending the transition, she says.

She says, if it were to be implemented, it would only be temporary.

She says there is a commitment to good faith on both parties. And there is a mechanism for ending it, she says.

She also says, once it has been superseded, it no longer applies. So if a future parliament were to move away from a deep trade relationship, it would no longer apply.

May says both sides have had to make compromises.

But the backstop is essential, she says. Without a backstop, there will be no agreement.

• May says there can be no deal without a backstop.

Theresa May starts by saying this is “the right deal for Britain”, because it delivers on the democratic decision of the people.

She summarises the case for the deal published yesterday in the form of her open letter to the nation.

She says that Gibraltar will be covered by the whole agreement, and that the UK will negotiate for Gibraltar in the trade talks. She praises the chief minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo, for his statesmanship. Picardo has backed the government’s handling of this matter, she says. She says the Spanish government wanted to change the text of the withdrawal deal on Gibraltar. They failed in that regard, she says.

• May says Spain failed to get changes it wanted over Gibraltar.

Yesterday it took leaders of the EU 27 - all the other EU countries, excluding the UK - just 38 minutes to approve the terms of the withdrawal deal.

Theresa May is about to make a statement to MPs about the summit. The week before last, when she first made a statement on the deal, she was on her feet for three hours. It would be surprising if today’s exchangers were to last less than two hours. But that would still be three times as long as the EU session approving the deal.

Here are the main points from the Downing Street lobby briefing.

• Number 10 hit back at the French president, Emmanuel Macron, saying the EU would be in breach of the withdrawal deal if it tried to keep the UK in the backstop. (See 2.36pm.)

• The spokesman refused to deny a report in the Mail on Sunday saying that a no deal Brexit could leave the UK short of chemicals essential for water purification. Asked about this, the spokesman initially said:

Obviously we are making preparations to ensure that we are ready in the event of a no deal.

The spokesman also said he did not comment on leaked reports. When pressed on whether the government would be able to guarantee water supplies in the event of a no deal Brexit, he replied:

What we are doing is making sure we are ready for all scenarios, and that includes a no deal scenario.

Here is an extract from Harry Cole’s story on this in the Mail on Sunday.

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

Whitehall disaster planners have warned Ministers that leaving the EU without a deal could spark a national crisis as crucial chemicals used in water purification are imported to the UK from Europe.

The deliveries risk getting caught in weeks of border chaos if Britain quits the EU next March without the Prime Minister’s deal with Brussels being approved by MPs.

The vital chemicals are timed to arrive ‘just in time’ and cannot be stockpiled as they are too volatile, meaning water plants would have to turn off the taps as soon as they ran out or risk poisoning millions.

Offices and schools would close and hospitals plunged into chaos.

The startling warning is contained in secret Whitehall contingency plans codenamed Operation Yellowhammer leaked to this newspaper.

• The spokesman said the government is continuing to prepare for a no deal Brexit, despite agreeing a withdrawal agreement with the EU. But he refused to say whether the fact that a deal has been struck with the EU would have any impact on the scale or scope of no deal planning. Instead he just said the government would “continue to make decisions at the appropriate time, as any responsible government would”.

• The spokesman said it was “categorically not the case” that John Hayes was given a knighthood to help secure his support in the Brexit vote.

• The spokesman confirmed that the government intends to publish its economic assessment of the PM’s Brexit plan. It has been widely reported that this is coming on Wednesday, although this has not been officially confirmed.

• The spokesman said the government’s immigration white paper will be published “very soon”. It is expected next week.

• May will host a reception for business leaders in Number 10 this evening to promote her Brexit deal, the spokesman said.

• Downing Street has condemned Russia for firing on Ukrainian ships and seizing vessels and sailors near the Kerch Strait. The spokesman said:
  

We condemn Russia’s act of aggression in seizing three Ukrainian vessels and their crew. This incident provides further evidence of Russia’s destabilising behaviour in the region and its ongoing violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity.

The UK position is clear. Ships must be allowed free passage to Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov.

We urge all parties to act with restraint. Russia must not be allowed to use force to exert greater pressure on Ukraine.

I’m just back from the lobby briefing. It was unusually long, but not unusually forthcoming, because half of today’s two-hour cabinet was devoted to a political cabinet, and the prime minister’s spokesman (who’s a civil servant) cannot brief on political cabinet because it involves party politics.

But the spokesman did have a very robust response to the threat from Emmanuel Macron yesterday that the UK could be held in the customs union backstop if European fishermen don’t get full access to British waters after Brexit. Asked about this, the spokesman said:

If the UK enters into the backstop we will be outside of the common fisheries policy, and have full control over whether French fishermen could enter our waters. Secondly, if the EU were not willing to engage in a genuine negotiation to replace the backstop with the future relationship or alternative arrangements, for example if it had closed its mind from the outset to the UK position on fisheries, that would put it in breach of its duty of good faith under the agreement, and we can refer this to independent arbitration.

So, only 24 hours after the Brexit deal was agreed, the UK is already threatening to take the EU to court (or an equivalent) over its implementation ....

• No 10 hits back at Macron, saying EU would be in breach of withdrawal deal if it tried to keep UK in backstop.

I will post more from the briefing soon.

Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary, is famous for saying in the 2016 referendum campaign that that people “have had enough of experts” (although the full quote was a bit more nuanced). So it is welcome to see that he has given a speech today headlined: “No such thing as too much information”.

It was about climate change. And this is how it started:

Everything we do at Defra has to be rooted in science. Whether it is reflecting on the future of food, farming or the marine environment, considering what our approach should be to the chemicals we use in agriculture, revising how we should manage our water resources, reviewing how we enhance biodiversity, assessing where the greatest productivity gains from new technologies might accrue or in a countless number of other different areas, policy must be shaped above all by evidence, reason and rigour. And there are few people more adept at assessing the evidence, deploying reason to make sense of it and applying the lessons for public policy with real rigour than Ian [Boyd, Defra’s chief scientific adviser] and his team. I want to take this opportunity today to put on record how profoundly grateful I am for his leadership.

And there is perhaps no area of public policy where scientific rigour is required in shaping policy making than in dealing with the challenge of climate change.

Gove was speaking at the launch of the UK Climate Projections 2018 report, the first major update of climate projections in nearly 10 years. Here is a Press Association story summarising what the report says.

Heatwaves and rising sea levels of more than a metre could threaten the UK in the coming decades without action to cut greenhouse gases, experts have said.

Summer temperatures could soar to 5.4C higher than current levels by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2C warmer if fossil fuel pollution stays high, the new UK climate projections from the Met Office show.

By mid century, summers as hot as this year’s weeks-long heatwave will be the norm, the researchers said.

Rainfall could fall by almost half (47%) in summer by 2070, while rain could be up by more than a third (35%) in winter.

Sea levels affecting London, where the Thames Barrier is expected to be in use to protect the city until 2070, could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100 if climate-warming emissions continue to climb.

Even if emissions are cut in line with the Paris climate agreement to curb temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, sea levels could still be 29cm to 70cm higher in the capital by 2100.

Cardiff is expected to have similar sea level rises as London, while in Edinburgh seas could rise by as much 49cm with low emissions and up to 90cm with high emissions.

In Belfast, seas could be as much as 52cm higher with low emissions and up to 94cm by the end of the century with high levels of climate pollution.

Even if the world manages to curb emissions in line with the Paris climate agreement, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3C higher by 2100.

I’m just off to the lobby briefing now. I will post again after 2pm.

Labour is opposed to Theresa May’s Brexit deal. But the SDLP, its sister party in Northern Ireland, is in favour. Speaking at Stormont, after Northern Ireland’s pro-remain parties (Sinn Fein, the SDLP, the Alliance and the Green party), held a meeting with business leaders, the SDLP’s leader Colum Eastwood said:

We don’t think there is a good Brexit but if we are going to have one, let’s try and limit the damage to our communities and our businesses and our society here, that’s what the backstop does, we need to bank that backstop, it is our ultimate insurance policy.

I would appeal to people across the water who have a vote in two weeks’ time, particularly people in the Labour party who have a very keen interest in supporting our peace process and all the political progress we have had over the last 20 years, this is an opportunity to once again step in and protect the progress that you were involved in helping bring about.

It is absolutely essential and we are all saying it, we are saying it as a collective political majority, we are saying it as a civic society from across all the different sectors, and our communities are saying it as well, we need your help, we need your protection, we need you to vote for this deal.

One of the more controversial issues in British politics in the run-up to the 2010 general election was identity cards. Tony Blair was in favour, and his government passed an Identity Cards Act, but under their new leader, David Cameron, the Conservatives were going through a libertarian phase, they opposed ID cards strongly, the scheme never really got rolled out, and when the coalition government came to power, it repealed the Act with glee.

But today George Osborne, chancellor in that government and Cameron’s closest political ally, says he thinks his party may have got it wrong. As editor of the Evening Standard he sometimes writes an “editor’s reply” column in his paper and today he has used it to reply to a letter from Dominic Grieve, the Conservative MP who chairs parliament’s intelligence and security committee. Osborne says:

Reading in [the ISC] report about the problems of keeping track of potential terrorists did make me question whether, as a country, we will have to revisit the debate about ID cards. An identity system could also help answer the public’s concerns about keeping a grip on immigration without at the same time destroying the open society we have all benefited from. You and I were part of an opposition that helped defeat the then Labour government’s plan to introduce ID cards. I wonder if we were right?

A visit to the UK by Shinzo Abe, the Japanese premier who was touted as a key figure in Theresa May’s plans, has been postponed as the prime minister begins a whirlwind few weeks of selling her Brexit agreement to the country.

Senior Whitehall sources told the Guardian that the Japanese prime minister was now expected to visit in January, instead of during the tumultuous few days before the meaningful vote in the House of Commons.

They suggested the delay was a result of May needing to focus all her attention on winning over sceptical MPs, rather than visiting heads of state. However, Abe is also under pressure domestically to be in Japan while their parliament is sitting, rather than spending yet more time abroad. One said:

The Japanese PM’s visit has been postponed, rather than cancelled. It works very well for both of them to delay the visit until the new year. The prime minister has her hands full ahead of the Brexit vote and Abe needs to spend some time at home, especially as he has been out of the country a lot recently.

It emerged that Downing Street expected Abe to be a key figure in May’s plan to sell her Brexit strategy after a PR plan, featuring endorsements from world leaders and an interview with Theresa May by David Dimbleby, was leaked earlier this month. No 10 insisted the “communications grid” did not reflect its thinking.

The Japanese prime minister has said his country would welcome Britain into the trans-pacific trade deal with “open arms” after Brexit. He said last month that while Britain would lose its role as a gateway to the EU after leaving, it would still be a country “equipped with global strength”.

The TPP is an agreement between 11 counties, including Vietnam, Canada, Australia and Japan. It did include the United States, but Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement last year.

Labour sources are saying there could be as much as five days of Brexit debate in the run up to the meaningful final vote on or around December 12; a long run just before the next European Union summit on the 13th and 14th. That could be the moment for a defeated Theresa May to try one last time for a better deal from Europe, although the prime minister has repeatedly said that the deal on offer is the only one she will be able to get.

The growing expectation at Westminster is that the government will struggle to impose the voting system it wants as May does not appear to have the numbers to force through her own procedure via a business motion. That would mean that amendments would be voted upon before MPs determined the main motion on whether to approve May’s final deal.

Labour believes that the speaker would select only a handful of amendments for debate: one from its party outlining its alternative Brexit plan, one from the SNP, and presumably a backbench amendment on a second referendum that is expected to be put down by Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston.

What is not clear is if there would also be an amendment from the hard Brexit European Research Group or the Democratic Unionist party.

There’s much irritation in Scotland this morning at the French president, with one headline reading “Macron picks a fight with Scottish fishermen”. This comes after Emmanuel Macron suggested at a press conference on Sunday that he would use the “leverage” of keeping the UK in the customs union to get a good deal on fishing access for French fishermen.

Speaking on BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford warned that “the EU are making clear that fishing is going to be a bargaining counter.” He said:

We now know the EU are determined to build on the existing CFP [common fisheries policy] when it comes to quotas. We’ve had the situation over the past couple of years that the Scottish Conservatives have told us that we were taking back control of our waters, nothing could be further from the truth. This is bad news for fishing and its bad news for Scotland.

But the chief executive of the Scottish Fisherman’s Federation, Bertie Armstrong, who has consistently offered qualified support to May’s deal, down-played the row, saying on the same programme:

The public need to recognise, first, that the fishing industry will fight tooth and nail for a decent outcome and, two, nothing has yet been given away, so everything so everything is to play for. We’re not buying any of these stories, neither Mr Macron’s or even the prime minister’s, until such time as it is signed sealed and delivered.

Today’s we’re getting the first proper economic analysis of the Brexit deal agreed between the UK and the EU and signed off at yesterday’s Brussels summit. And it says that, under this plan, after 10 years the UK economy would be almost 4% smaller than if it would if the country remained in the EU.

The research was commissioned by People’s Vote, which is campaigning for a second referendum, but produced by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), an independent and respected economic thinktank.

The full report is being launched later, but here is the key NIESR conclusion.

Our key finding is that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented so that the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market in 2021, then by 2030 GDP will be around 4% lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. This is largely because higher impediments to services trade make it less attractive to sell services from the UK. This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.

Here is an extract from the People’s Vote news release (bold type from the original.)

Although the proposed UK deal envisages no tariffs or quantitative restrictions, the UK would not enjoy Norway’s full access to the EU’s single market through the European economic area or Switzerland’s comprehensive regulatory alignment through bilateral agreements that allow free movement of labour.

By 2030, at the end of the first decade outside the EU, this would have the following consequences:

The UK’s gross domestic product would fall by 3.9% - or £100bn annually.

GDP per head would fall by 3% a year, amounting to an average cost per person a year of £1,090 at today’s prices.

Total trade between the UK and the EU would fall by 46%.

Foreign direct investment would fall by 21%

Labour productivity would fall by 1.3%.

Tax revenue would fall by 1.5 – 2%, the equivalent of £18-23bn less to spend on public services at today’s prices.

The report underlines how continued uncertainty from the proposed deal’s lack of clarity about the UK relationship with the EU or the rest of the world means “business investment and economic activity is likely to continue to be even lower”. But, because it is impossible to forecast accurately the scale of this damage compared to staying in the EU, no figure is given for it and this study is therefore likely to be a conservative estimate of Brexit’s final cost.

And here is a chart from the report with the key figures.

Brexiters, of course, will dismiss this as nonsense, and it is true to say that the precise figures in long-term economic forecasts are almost inevitably bound to be inaccurate. But that does not mean that they cannot provide a reliable guide to long-term economic trends. To use an analogy popular with economists, if you eat pizza for lunch every day for the next 10 years, it is impossible to be certain what you will end up weighing, but you can be sure that it will be more than if you ate salad. The NIESR is the first expert body to produce an economic impact assessment of the specific deal on the table, but its assumptions and calculations are very much in line with those of mainstream economists, including the government’s, as became apparent when the government released details of its provisional Brexit modelling in March.

The government is expected to publish its own analysis of the impact of the deal later this week, possibly on Wednesday.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Michael Gove, the environment secretary, gives a speech on climate change at the launch of the UK Climate Projections 2018, the first major update of climate projections in nearly 10 years.

10am: The inquest opens into the death of the Welsh assembly politician Carl Sargeant.

10.30am: Theresa May chairs an unusual Monday cabinet which will discuss Brexit. (Normally cabinet meets on Tuesdays.)

12pm: The People’s Vote campaign launches a report from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) looking at the economic impact of May’s Brexit deal. Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, Pat McFadden, the Labour former minister, and Anna Soubry, the Tory former minister, will be among the speakers.

1.30pm: Downing Street lobby briefing.

After 3.30pm: May makes a statement to MPs about yesterday’s EU Brexit summit.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary when I finish, after May’s statement is over.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

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