Some more upbeat US data just out, as a pick-up in services growth in February offset slowing growth in the manufacturing sector.

Here are the headline numbers in the IHS Markit PMIs, where anything above 50 signals growth:

• Services: 56.2 in Feb (54.2 in Jan)

• Manufacturing: 53.7 in Feb (54.9 in Jan)

• Combined: 55.8 in Feb (54.4 in Jan)

Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit, provides some context for the numbers:

February data provides a positive signal for first quarter economic growth, with US businesses reporting the fastest output expansion since the middle of 2018.

Service sector firms led the way, supported by solid improvements in business and consumer spending. Private sector payroll numbers increased to the greatest extent for five months, which adds to hopes that robust domestic demand will act as a growth tailwind over the near-term.

Historical comparisons suggest the latest survey data are indicative of an underlying economic growth rate of around 2.5% annualised, although the PMI is designed to monitor private sector companies so the impact of the government shutdown may not be fully captured.

The opening bell has rung on Wall Street and US markets edged lower, reflecting some disappointing economic data:

• Dow Jones: -0.1% at 25,918

• S&P 500: -0.2% at 2,779

• Nasdaq: -0.2% at 7,475

There were 216,000 new jobless claims in the US last week, down from 239,000 the week before and fewer than the 229,000 predicted by economists.

The pound is a fraction lower against the euro and the dollar following earlier gains. Sterling is off 0.1% against both currencies at €1.1494 and $1.3036.

It appears that comments made by an unnamed government source are weighing on sentiment.

Reuters brings this report:

It does not feel like Britain will have secured the changes it needs to its exit deal with Brussels by next week, a British government source said on Thursday.

Prime Minister Theresa May will hold bilateral meetings with European Union leaders at an EU-League of Arab States summit in Egypt at the weekend, but the source said she was not expected to return from that with a “piece of paper” on a revised deal.

If May does not bring a revised deal back to parliament for a vote by Feb. 27, lawmakers will be given the opportunity to debate and vote on the next steps, and some have said they will seek to wrestle control of the process from the government.

Economists say the latest figures suggest the chancellor should comfortably undershoot the full-year borrowing target of £25.5bn, with little sign so far of a Brexit impact on the public finances:

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC:

So far the public finances seem to have been largely immune to the adverse effects of Brexit-related uncertainty, because this has mostly affected business investment. More tax-rich areas of economic activity, notably earnings from employment and consumer spending, have held up better over the past ten months.

The budget deficit for 2018/19 as a whole now looks set to come in some way below the OBR’s October budget forecast of £25.2 billion, giving the chancellor some potential additional fiscal room for manoeuvre going into his Spring Statement next month. This could allow him to offer more support to the economy in the short term depending on how the Brexit negotiations progress over the next few weeks.

Thomas Pugh, UK economist at Capital Economics:

The last public finances figures released before the Spring Statement put the government on track to undershoot the OBR’s forecast of borrowing of £25.5bn in the 2018-19 financial year.

If a Brexit deal is secured, we think that a pickup in economic growth in 2019 will increase the size of that headroom. And if there is a no deal Brexit, the chancellor should have plenty of scope to support growth, and if needed to the chancellor would sacrifice his fiscal rules for the economy.

January is traditionally a surplus month for the public coffers because of the flow of income tax receipts, but this year was the strongest January since records began in 1993.

Income Tax and capital gains tax receipts were £21.4bn in Jan, £3.1bn more than last Jan.

It puts Britain’s public finances on a stronger footing than at this point last year, with borrowing in the financial year so far at £21.2bn, compared with £39.7bn a year earlier.

The forecasts for borrowing are due to be updated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (the treasury’s independent forecaster) in the spring statement next month. Its current forecast is for full year borrowing (in the fiscal year ending March 2019) of £25.5bn, which the treasury is now expected to undershoot.

Breaking: Good news for Philip Hammond, after public finances hit a record monthly surplus of £14.9bn in January thanks to strong income tax receipts.

It easily beat City expectations of a £10.05bn surplus, and compared with borrowing of £3bn in December according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics.

The figure comes just ahead of the chancellor’s spring statement on 13 March.

More soon...

Data just out shows the eurozone economy was almost at a standstill in February.

The ‘flash’ PMI surveys from IHS Markit suggest the region’s manufacturing sector contracted unexpectedly this month - and for the first time in more than five years - while the services sector grew at a faster than expected rate.

Taking the two together, business activity edged up over the month. Here are the headline figures for February, where anything above 50 signals growth:

• Flash manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (50.5 in January)

• Flash services PMI: 52.3 (51.2 in January)

• Flash eurozone composite: 51.4 (51.0 in January)

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said the surveys suggests the eurozone economy is on course to grow by just 0.1% in the first quarter.

The Eurozone economy remained close to stagnation in February. The flash PMI lifted only slightly higher during the month, continuing to indicate one of the weakest rates of expansion since 2014. The survey data suggest that GDP may struggle to rise by much more than 0.1% in the first quarter.

The weakness is being led by manufacturing, which has now entered its first downturn since mid- 2013. With factory order books deteriorating at an increased rate, the rate of contraction in the goods- producing sector will likely worsen in coming months.

At the other end of the table, Barclays is the biggest FTSE riser this morning after a pledge to return more money to investors.

Shares are up 3.3% at 166p after the promise by chief executive Jes Staley, as he attempts to fend off the attentions of the activist investor Edward Bramson.

Profits for 2018 were flat after litigation and conduct charges of £2.2bn, while the bank also took a £150m charge to cover economic uncertainty over Brexit.

Read our full story here:

Shares in Centrica are down 11% this morning at 122p after the parent company of British Gas gave a very gloomy outlook for the year ahead.

Profits rose in 2018 but the company lost 742,000 accounts and said profits this year would be hit by the energy price cap imposed by the regulator, Ofgem.

Centrica said in its annual results statement:

We have been very clear that we do not believe a price cap is a sustainable solution for the market, and is likely to have unintended consequences for customers and competition.

The company has a target cashflow of £2.1bn to £2.3bn and met that in 2018. But Iain Conn, chief executive, warned the target would be challenging to meet this year.

Julie Palmer, partner at restructuring firm Begbies Traynor, says it’s a tough time for energy firms:

Yes, the profits are up, but with price caps being pinned on suppliers and the precarious nature of the energy industry any expansion within the sector is a nervy and tentative process.

Our ‘red flag alert’ has shown a contraction in the market with more than 3,000 utilities providers in significant financial distress – a number that increased 2% in the lead up to the Christmas period. And some smaller providers such as Utilitywise have already gone into administration in 2019.

Most European markets are mainly higher this morning, following a more optimistic mood in Asia and on Wall Street.

The FTSE 100 is the exception, down 25 points. More on that soon.

• FTSE 100: -0.4% at 7,202

• Germany’s DAX: +0.3% at 11,437

• France’s CAC: -0.1% at 5,200

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: flat at 20,307

• Spain’s IBEX: +0.4% 9,220

• Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.1% at 372

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Asian markets have followed Wall Street higher this morning after Donald Trump boosted hopes that a planned increase in tariffs to 25% on goods imported from China could be avoided.

The US President said there was “no magical date” in the trade talks, easing fears that an increase on 1 March will go ahead.

Investors are holding on to hopes that there is still time for progress in trade negotiations. The Chinese vice premier Liu He joins the talks in Washington today. He has been given “special envoy” status by Beijing, and there are expectations that he will meet Trump during his trip.

The Hang Seng is up 0.3%, while the Nikkei rose 0.2%. Most European markets are also expected to open higher:

Also coming up:

• 9am GMT: Eurozone ‘flash’ PMI surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors

• 9.30am GMT: UK data for January will provide the latest insight into the state of the public sector finances ahead of the chancellor’s spring statement in March

• 12pm GMT: Andy Haldane, chief economist and rate-setter at the Bank of England, gives a speech in Glasgow

• 1.30pm GMT: Weekly US jobless claims data

• 2.45pm GMT: US ‘flash’ PMI surveys for manufacturing and services