Brexit gridlock has dragged the UK economy close to stalling point as growing numbers of companies pause their spending plans, raising the risk of job losses in future, according to a Guardian analysis of developments over the past month.

With less than 40 days for the government to take urgent evasive action to avert no-deal Brexit, the economy has become increasingly reliant on consumers carrying on spending as businesses slam on the brakes.

The Guardian’s monthly Brexit dashboard reveals several warning signals for Philip Hammond as he prepares to deliver next month’s spring statement, the final major fiscal event before the UK formally leaves the EU. There are positives putting Britain on a stronger footing ahead of Brexit from the jobs market and growth in household spending.

However, two former Bank of England policymakers warn that clouds are gathering for the future as the UK braces for a no-deal departure.

While unemployment in the final months before Brexit is at the lowest level since the mid 1970s, more than 10,000 manufacturing jobs in the British car industry have been put at risk by the lack of clarity over future trading relationships and shifting trends in the worldwide automotive sector. Honda, the Japanese carmaker, announced plans to close its Swindon plant, while Jaguar Land Rover and Ford have also said they will axe thousands of jobs.

Writing in the Guardian, David Blanchflower, a former member of the interest rate-setting monetary policy committee at the Bank of England, warned: “Closing plants hits jobs and wages.”

He said: “We need to focus on what is happening now as Brexit approaches, not what happened in those halcyon pre-Brexit days. Stand by for gale-force winds approaching.”

To gauge the impact of Brexit on a monthly basis, the Guardian is monitoring eight economic indicators, along with the value of the pound and the performance of the FTSE 100.

Economists made forecasts for seven of those barometers before their release, and in four cases the outcome was better than expected. In three cases, the result was worse than forecast.

On the latest dashboard, consumer spending recovered sharply in January after one of the worst Christmas trading periods of the past decade. Inflation cooled to the lowest level in two years, helped by the biggest monthly fall in gas prices since the late 1980s coinciding with the introduction of the government’s energy price cap.

Philip Hammond received an early boost before the spring statement thanks to the biggest monthly surplus in the public finances since records began in 1993, coming as he faces pressure to end austerity. However, the chancellor also faces the risk that a no-deal Brexit could plunge the economy into recession and blow apart the public finances.

Surveys of business activity closely watched by the Treasury for early warning signs from the economy show that growing numbers of companies have put big spending decisions on hold. Stockpiling has helped to prop up factory output, but growth in new orders has slumped, with firms blaming Brexit and the wider slowdown in the world economy.

Amid the global slowdown and trade wars between the US and China, the UK’s trade deficit – the gap between exports and imports – has grown, despite the weakness in the pound since the Brexit vote, which should have made British goods more competitive on the world stage.

Exporters sending goods to far-flung destinations are now doing so with the risk that their shipments are locked out of harbours around the world, following the failure of ministers to roll over several EU trade deals with a series of major trading partners, including Japan and South Korea.

The economy grew by just 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, down from 0.6% in the third quarter. The fourth-quarter figures contained evidence of an even sharper slowdown, with the economy posting a decline of 0.4% in December amid signs that Brexit uncertainty is taking hold.

Business investment has collapsed into the weakest period since the financial crisis with four successive quarters of falling corporate spending last year, paving the way for weaker economic growth in future.

Writing in the Guardian, Andrew Sentance, another former MPC member, said: “The forward-looking indicators – productivity, trade performance, investment and job announcements – point to a further weakening in the UK economy.”