A late PS: Business leaders are tearing out what’s left of their hair, after MPs rejected Theresa May’s deal again.

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Director-General, summed up the mood:

“Enough is enough. This must be the last day of failed politics.

“A new approach is needed by all parties. Jobs and livelihoods depend on it.

“Extending Article 50 to close the door on a March no-deal is now urgent. It should be as short as realistically possible and backed by a clear plan.

“Conservatives must consign their red lines to history, while Labour must come to the table with a genuine commitment to solutions.

“It’s time for Parliament to stop this circus.”

The pound remains sharply lower today, as yesterday’s burst of optimism is wiped out. So with a vote on whether to reject no-deal due on Wednesday, and just 17 days until Britain is due to leave the EU, we can expect more volatility... Good night GW

In the City, the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed 20 points higher at 7,151.

The pound is still off last night’s highs, down 0.5% at $1.3077 as traders await Theresa May’s likely defeat over her Brexit deal tonight.

The Republic of Ireland and France have now announced bans on the Boeing 737 Max 8, shortly after the UK’s own move.

Boeing, though, has issued a statement insisting that it has “full confidence in the plane”.

Here’s our news story on the UK growth figures:

UK chancellor Philip Hammond will have been relieved by today’s growth figures, as he prepares to update the House of Commons with his Spring Statement tomorrow.

Our economics editor Larry Elliott explains:

In the end, the figures were not nearly as bad as the surveys had suggested. Output was up 0.5% in January, the sharpest one-month rise for more than two years, with increases in the three big sectors: services, manufacturing and construction. Spending in the shops was strong and the UK’s annual growth rate picked up from 1% to 1.4%. While not exactly booming, Hammond will be able to tell MPs that the UK is growing faster than all the other G7 countries bar the US and Canada.

Of course, there are plenty of caveats. The stronger than expected performance in January did little more than reverse a 0.4% drop in gross domestic product in December, and the quarterly growth rate – a better guide to the underlying trend – remained unchanged at 0.2%. It is always a mistake to read too much into a single month’s data, and manufacturing and construction were both down over the quarter.

The service sector, by contrast, grew by 0.5% in the three months to January, in large part because the doom and gloom that appears to have descended over company boardrooms does not seem to have filtered down to the shop floor. Wages are rising faster than prices, and that means consumers have more money in their pockets.

More here:

Several Turkish Airlines planes heading to the UK have been forced to turn back mid-flight, and return to Istanbul, following the CAA’s ban on the Boeing 737 Max 8.

We don’t know why two Boeing 737 Max 8’s have crashed in the last five months, but this hasn’t stopped president Trump weighing in on airline safety.

Factcheck: Is Trump right?

Well, the number of fatalities in 2018 rose sharply to over 500, from just 13 in 2017. But the long-term path has been downwards. Flying has become safer, as planes have become more complex.

As Reuters reported in January:

Over the last two decades, aviation deaths around the world have been falling. As recently as 2005, there were 1,015 deaths aboard commercial passenger flights worldwide, the Aviation Safety Network said.

Despite the increase, 2018 was still the third safest year ever in terms of the number of fatal accidents and the ninth safest measured by deaths, the Aviation Safety Network said.

TUI, the UK holiday group, says it is discontinuing all Boeing 737 Max 8 flights “for the time being”, following the CAA’s announcement.

Nissan only started making its luxury Infiniti cars in Sunderland in 2015, so the decision to abandon production is a big, sudden, blow.

When the first Q30 vehicle rolled off the production line, Nissan declared that it had created “a new generation of premium car builders” and master craftsmen at the “world class” Sunderland factory.

Nissan added:

It all adds up to a powerful demonstration of INFINITI’s commitment to the UK.

It’s now clear that this commitment wasn’t as strong as it appeared....

Over in the US, the latest inflation data shows little sign that price pressures are building -- good news for American families.

Consumer prices only rose by 1.5% per annum in February, the smallest annual rise since September 2016, down from 1.6% in January.

Core inflation -- which strips out volatile food and energy prices -- also dropped, to 2.1% per year, from 2.2%.

This suggests there is little pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again anytime soon.

In February alone, prices rose by 0.2%, due to higher food, gasoline and rent costs. That ends a three-month run of flat prices.

Britain’s economy is “stuck in low gear” says Alastair Neame, senior economist at the CEBR thinktank.

Here’s his take on this morning’s GDP report:

The latest data show that the manufacturing sector has continued its run of poor performance. Compared to the previous three months, output in the sector declined by 0.7% in the three months to January, making this the fourth consecutive period of negative growth. Construction output also recorded a decline of 0.6% over the same period. The more volatile monthly data do indicate some respite, however, with both sectors returning to growth after sharp contractions in output during December 2018.

The service sector, which forms the backbone of the UK economy, indicated a more sustained, albeit small, glimmer of improvement as rolling three-month growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5%. The largest contributor to growth in services came from wholesale and retail trade. Wholesalers in particular will have benefited from firms’ continued stockpiling in January, following the government’s failure to win a vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement ahead of the Christmas recess.

Professor Costas Milas of Liverpool University reckons today’s GDP report suggests the UK should finally cut its economic losses, accept the Brexit withdrawal agreement, and move on.

Today’s GDP growth of 0.2% on a three-month rolling basis is well below its historical mean growth rate of 0.5%. The sustained under par economic performance provides a good excuse for undecided MPs to finally push Mrs May’s “improved” deal over the finish line.

I suspect that a number of MPs will realise that it is about time we cut our economic losses and move on by supporting what appears to be the very final Brexit deal offered by our EU partners.

The BBC’s Dharshini David reckons Brexit stockpiling boosted UK output in January:

Britain’s economy isn’t “out of the woods yet” despite recording decent growth in January, says Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK.

She write:

“The first glimpse of GDP data for this year points to a UK economy hovering well below its growth potential, as we wait for the Brexit fog to dissipate.

“Clarity on the direction of Brexit should lift business confidence and increase investment, but that could take time to materialise, so we expect growth to remain subdued in the short-term.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, says the pick-up in growth in January is welcome, but not the end of the story:

“There was some good news on the economy this morning ahead of the Brexit vote and Spring Statement, as monthly GDP bounced back more strongly than expected in January after falling sharply in December.

“All major sectors of the economy saw a return to positive growth in January, with a particularly marked turnaround in construction sector output as a 2.8% fall in December was entirely reversed in January.

“The volatility of the monthly data for December and January reinforces the importance of focusing most attention on the rolling three month average GDP growth rate. This remained unchanged at 0.2% in the three months to January, the same as in the three months to December.

“The big picture therefore remains one of continued sluggish but positive growth in the UK economy, with business investment held back by ongoing uncertainty over Brexit. Consumer spending remains more robust given the continued strength of the jobs market and rising earnings growth. There are no signs yet that uncertainty over Brexit has pushed the economy as a whole into recession. If an orderly Brexit can be achieved, then the economy should pick up speed again in the second half of this year.”

You can see the UK’s growth data for January here.

The strong growth recorded in January may be a sign that consumers aren’t panicking about Brexit (plus, any stockpiling of essential food and medicines would boost output)

Here’s economist Sam Tombs of City firm Pantheon:

City experts say Britain’s January growth figures look solid:

Good news! Britain’s services, production, manufacturing and construction all grew their output in January, after shrinking in December.

However... Britain’s growth over the last quarter is somewhat less impressive.

UK GDP only rose by 0.2% in the November-January quarter compared with the previous three months. That’s the same reading as a month ago, and is a better measure of the economy’s underlying performance.

On an annual basis, the UK grew by 1.4% year-on-year in January, up from 1.0% in December.

Here we go...

Beijing’s top statistics official has tried to calm concerns over the state of the Chinese economy.

Last week, there was alarm when trade figures showed export and imports both plunged in February.

Ning Jizhe, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, argued that the underlying picture is healthier, saying:

According to part of the statistics already known, China’s economic operation in January-February generally showed an improving trend and overall production improved.

“Excluding the Spring Festival (Lunar New Year) factor, the total value of imports and exports increased 10.2% year-on-year, of which exports rose 7.8% and imports gained 12.9%,” he said.

A Chinese hard landing is one of the biggest threats to the global recovery, so UK businesses should be watching its trade data closely.

Beijing has pledged to cut taxes and boost spending, after lowering growth targets for 2019. Andy Peaple of the Wall Street Journal argues that credit growth will be crucial too:

Shares in UK banks and housebuilders have risen this morning, as the City hopes that Britain may avoid crashing out of the EU without a delay.

Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, two of the UK’s biggest building firms, are leading the FTSE 100. Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds are close behind.

It’s still not at all clear how tonight’s Meaningful Vote on Brexit will proceed, but the (limited) concessions won by Theresa May last night may persuade some more MPs to back her deal (once they’ve finished scrutinising the changes).

Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx says the PM may enjoy a smaller defeat tonight, if not actually a victory:

Though the expectation remains that May will lose the vote, the size of the loss could now be far less than it would have been without these changes, which...well, it’s something, and could pave the way for a third, finally successful, vote, even if the EU is pretty damn adamant it doesn’t want to come back to the negotiating table.

Pendragon, which runs car showrooms across the United Kingdom, is also feeling the chill winds of Brexit uncertainty.

It has reported a 1.3% drop in revenues for 2018, mainly due to weaker sales of new cars.

Pendragon told the City that:

Economic and market conditions remain relatively subdued and the expected UK exit from the EU has resulted in a continuing level of uncertainty in terms of consumer confidence, manufacturer behaviour in respect of new car supply and the possible impact of tariffs and currency movements.

Pizza delivery chain Domino’s has warned that the lack of clarity over Brexit has hurt consumer spending.

It told shareholders this morning:

As in 2017, we have been operating in an uncertain consumer environment. Although employment is at record levels and wage inflation has picked up, costs of living are rising and customers are very focused on value.

Until the UK’s future relationship with the EU becomes clearer, we expect this uncertainty to continue.

Domino’s has been growing impressively in recent years. But today, it reported a 24% fall in pre-tax profits for last year, mainly due to problems growing its international business. Like-for-like UK sales were still up 4.6% in 2018.

January’s GDP report really should be better than December’s weak effort.

These charts, from a month ago, show how the economy stumbled at the end of 2018. Services, production and construction output all shrank in December, for the first time since September 2012.