Graeme Wearden 

UK house price slowdown; China growth beats forecasts – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK house price slowdown spreads from London to the South East
  
  

Houses for sale in north London; prices in the capital are falling at their fastest rate in a decade
Houses for sale in north London; prices in the capital are falling at their fastest rate in a decade Photograph: Alicia Canter/The Guardian

Finally, London’s stock market has ended an uneventful session up just 1 point, at 7,471.

Packaging and transport firm Bunzl (rarely the most exciting Footsie constituent) had a more volatile day, plunging over 12% by the close.

European markets were more upbeat, helped by China’s forecast-beating economic data overnight.

David Madden of CMC Markets says:

The FTSE 100 underperformed the rest of Europe as the mining sector is holding the London equity benchmark back. The DAX and the CAC 40 have hit fresh six month highs as traders latched onto the stronger-than-expected growth figures from China. The Chinese economy grew by 6.4% in the first-quarter, topping the 6.3% forecast. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all improved on the month, but the figures might not be as good as initially thought. State-owned investment compensated for lower private investment, and big ticket retail sales items like cars declined.

Business leaders are putting pressure on the authorities to take a tough line with the Extinction Rebellion protests, which have disrupted travel in the capital this week.

The New West End Company says shops in the Oxford Street area lost £12m of sales yesterday, with more disruption today, after protesters took control of Oxford Circus, Marble Arch, and Waterloo Bridge.

Jace Tyrrell, CEO of New West End Company told Sky News that the protests are “very disruptive”, and “pulling the West End to a halt”.

He wants protests moved to a “more appropriate location in central London”, and isn’t impressed that the police (who have arrested hundreds of people) are tolerating a large boat mored in the middle of Oxford Circus.

He says:

“West End businesses fully support the right to protest, but this is causing significant damage to our area.”

Tyrrell claims that losses could mount sharply, if shoppers decide to stay away.

In the last couple of days we’ve seen an average 25% drop in spend. It was £12m [lost] yesterday, obviously there’s disruption today.

The impact is customers perhaps decide not to come [to the West End] over the Easter Weekend. This could go into the hundreds of millions of pounds if we don’t get this and try to open up Oxford Circus and Marble Arch pretty quickly.

The West End is being targeted for a reason, though - fast fashion and disposable clothing are one factor driving up carbon emissions.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has weighed in on the issue too, warning that companies - and indeed whole industries - won’t survive unless they address the issue of climate change.

Over in New York, tech stocks are rising as New York traders welcome the stronger-than-expected growth figures from China overnight.

This has sent the Nasdaq 100 index of top US technology companies to a new all-time high. They should benefit if global growth is more resilient than expected.

European stock markets have also been rallied, hitting their highest level since last August.

The FTSE 100 is flat, though, and being dragged down by packaging firm Bunzl (-9.8%) reported slowing growth this morning.

In other trade news, the European Union has picked the US products it could hit with new tariffs, in a row over subsidies given to airline maker Boeing.

The list covers $20bn of imports into Europe each year, and hundreds of different item. It includes frozen fish, fresh truffles, dried fruits, vegetable fats, wine, vodka, handbags, bicycle parts and video game consoles.

The full list is online here.

Some reaction to the US trade data:

US trade deficit narrows

Newsflash: America’s trade deficit has fallen to an eight-month low, thanks to a surge in exports to China.

The gap between US imports and exports fell to $49.4bn in February, down from $51.1bn in January. That’s an eight-month low.

The reduction was driven by higher exports of autos and airplanes and a smaller gap with China and Europe.

The goods deficit with China dropped 28.2% to $24.8 billion. Exports to China rose 18.2% to $8.4 billion. Imports from China fell 20.2% to $33.2 billion, according to today’s data.

This could be a sign that Donald Trump’s trade war with China is finally succeeding, and that Beijing has begun buying more US goods.

However.... last week China reported a tumble in trade with America this year, so the picture is a little confusing.

Full story: Brexit concerns drag house prices down

If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story on the UK house prices slowdown, and March’s inflation data:

House prices across Britain have increased at their slowest rate for more than six years, with London experiencing its biggest slump in a decade as Brexit concerns drag on growth.

The Office for National Statistics said average house prices in the UK rose by 0.6% in the year to February, the lowest rate of growth since September 2012, and down from a rate of 1.7% in January.

The price of an average London home fell by 3.8% on the year, the steepest drop since the depths of the last recession in mid-2009, and faster than the 2.2% decline recorded in the year to January.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation unexpectedly remained at 1.9% in March, unchanged from a month earlier, offering some respite for UK households.

Interest rates on loans for students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will, however, rise by up to 5.4%, after the March retail price index (RPI) measure of inflation came in at 2.4%.

More here:

Take note, potential house-buyers.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club. reckons UK house prices could easily stagnate through the rest of 2019, given consumer caution.

He says that today’s house price data:

....very much fuel the overall impression that the housing market is being hampered as buyer caution amid already challenging conditions is being reinforced by recent heightened Brexit and economic uncertainties – although there are significant variations across regions with the overall picture being dragged down by the weakness in London and the South East.

George Buckley, Nomura’s chief UK and European economist, has produced this chart showing how house prices in the North West of England have outperformed London since 2017.

He says:

The divergence is probably reflective of a number of factors – weaker global growth over the past year and Brexit having dampened London prices, as has general overvaluation in the capital, while regional prices being supported by the more traditional drivers of the housing market – i.e. rising wages, employment and low interest rates.

Over in Germany, the government has conceded that its growth forecasts have been too optimistic.

Berlin now expects the German economy will only expand by 0.5% during 2019, only half as fast as previously expected.

This followed weak economic data, particularly in the factory sector, in recent months.

It’s a blow to hopes that Germany would bounce back from its economic problems last year (its economy contracted slightly in the second half of 2018).

Here’s the regional breakdown of the latest UK house price data, showing that England is still the priciest place for housing.

  • England: Up 0.4% in the year to February 2019, to £243,000
  • Scotland: Down 0.2% to £146,000
  • Wales: Up 4.1% to £160,000
  • Northern Ireland: Up 5.5% to £137,000

Brexit isn’t the only factor behind Britain’s house price slowdown.

Sharp cuts in tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords are another factor, experts say, as they’ve wiped out many of the profits from buying a house and renting it out.

Anne Bowden, housing partner at law firm Pinsent Masons, predicts that house prices will keep falling:

“The death of buy to let, increased stamp duty and the prospect of interest rate hikes combined with Brexit instability makes the downward trajectory of house prices predictable. This decline looks set to continue for the foreseeable future.

“One way to curtail non-resident buyers, who have stoked the residential property market in the south east, is to increase stamp duty further. While Government is consulting on this now, many would argue its impact will be minimal given the housing market is already in decline in London, particularly in the premium market. A one per cent surcharge is unlikely to reverse this trend in the short term.”

Despite recent falls, London still remain the most expensive region to buy a property.

The average London house price is now £460,000, more than double the national average of £226,000 in February.

In the South East, the average house price is £316,000, down from £321,000 in January.

The North East is still the cheapest place for property, at £125,000 on average. That means they’ve still not reached their value before the 2008 financial crisis.

UK house prices have actually been falling since last August, a clear sign that the market has cooled:

The big picture is that UK house price growth has been slowing steadily since summer 2016....and a certain referendum.

House price inflation was 8.2% in June 2016, when Britain voted to leave the EU. It’s now just 0.6%, as Brexit uncertainty has deterred some people from risking a house move.

The ONS’s head of inflation Mike Hardie says:

“Annual house price growth has slowed to the lowest rate in close to seven years.

Growth in Wales and the west of England was offset by a sustained fall in London and falling prices in the South East for the first time since 2011.

Updated

South East house prices fall for first time since 2011

Newsflash: House prices across the South East of England have fallen, for the first time in over seven years, as the slowdown in Britain’s property sector deepens.

House prices across the South East declined by 1.8% in the year to February, the Office for National Statistics reports.

That’s the first annual decline since October 2011, and the biggest fall since September 2009.

London continues to bear the brunt of the slowdown -- with house prices also suffering their biggest fall since the last recession.

House prices in the capital shrank by 3.8% year-on-year in February, the biggest fall since 2009. That’s rather worse than the 2.2% decline recorded in January, showing that the housing slowdown has gathered pace.

Prices rose in other parts of the UK, with the North East of England particularly strong.

But average house price across the country only increased by 0.6% in the last year -- the lowest annual rate since September 2012 when it was 0.4%.

Updated

Why UK inflation held steady

Why was UK inflation unchanged at 1.9% in March?

According to the Office for National Statistics, rising prices for motor fuels and clothing pushed the cost of living higher last month.

However, that was balanced out by falling food prices and recreational costs (mainly computer games).

Newsflash: UK inflation held steady at 1.9% per year in March.

That matches February’s reading, and is weaker than the 2% which City economists expected.

Juventus shares plunge but Ajax soar after Champions League drama

Danny Blanchflower once explained that football isn’t just about winning, it’s also about glory -- playing with style and a flourish.

Juventus shareholders, though, are learning that NOT winning can be costly.

Shares in the Old Lady have plunged by 20% this morning, after they unexpectedly lost their Champion’s League quarter-final against Dutch side Ajax last night.

Having recruited Cristiano Ronaldo to their ranks, Juventus were seen as a one of the favourites to win this year’s premier European club competition for the first time since 1996.

However, they came up short against a bright and youthful Ajax side last night, losing 3-2 on aggregate. That’s a financial blow, given the lucrative TV income, exposure for sponsors, and prize money on offer.

Shares in Ajax, though, are soaring -- rather like youthful captain Matthijs de Ligt as he headed in the winner in Turin last night. They’re up 8.5% to a new all-time high.

Updated

The problem with relying on government stimulus for growth is obvious -- a nasty hangover when the punchbowl is taken away.

Writing in the New York Times, Alexandra Stevenson explains how China’s recovery may not be sustainable:

There is a caveat: The signs of improvement most likely do not stem from a sudden burst of confidence in the strength of the country’s economy among Chinese business leaders.

Instead, the positive glimmers are largely a product of the hundreds of billions of dollars that Beijing has pumped into the country’s economy in recent months and the loans that officials have pressed state-run banks to make. All of that comes at a cost, and it raises a question about how willing Beijing is to spend to keep growth going.

“This time they used an overwhelming amount of force to boost the economy,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, said. “That is why the economy stabilized in the first quarter.”

The chance of a “double dip,” in which growth drops again before picking up later this year, is high, Mr. Hu added. “The recovery is not that solid,” he said. “They front-loaded the policy firepower at the start of the year.”

Sidenote: Stevenson has also highlighted the various unofficial indicators used to track China’s economy -- including sales of pickles (popular with construction workers) and instant noodles (popular if takeaways are too pricy).

Today’s GDP report also shows a jump in investment by China’s companies.

Private sector fixed-asset investment, a gauge of confidence of Chinese private manufacturers and entrepreneurs, rose 6.4% in Q1 2019 first quarter compared to a year earlier.

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management says this - alongside the jump in factory output - is significant:

Chinese industrial production and investment spending may be more important signals.

China has become a significantly larger global manufacturer – but rarely makes a product from start to finish. China is a link in the chain, so stronger Chinese production signals stronger production for other countries along the supply chain.

Updated

China’s growth report has helped to push the oil price up to a new high for the year.

Brent crude has hit $72 per barrel for the first time since last November, on expectation of higher demand from Chinese factories.

A surprise fall in US oil inventories in the last week has also pushed crude prices higher - that could be another sign that growth is strengthening.

This chart, from Durk Veenstra of RTL news, shows how Chinese industrial output has surged since Beijing ramped up its stimulus measures.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has urged caution, warning that the economy still faces downward pressures.

Spokesman Mao Shengyong told reporters:

“The national economy enjoyed stable performance with growing positive factors, and stronger market expectation and confidence.

“Given slowing global economic growth and international trade, increasing international uncertainties and prominent domestic structural issues, the task of reform and development is arduous and downward pressure on the economy persists.”

Chinese GDP: What the experts say

Tai Hui of JP Morgan Asset Management says Beijing’s stimulus programme of higher government spending, lower taxes and wider credit availability are “starting to yield results”.

This confirms that China’s economic growth is bottoming out and this momentum is likely to continue.

Currency strategist Marc-André Fongern believes China’s economy has regained momentum:

But Sue Trinh of Royal Bank of Canada has queried whether the Chinese GDP report is really accurate....

In some ways the data are as expected –we all knew there was a state led drive to goose growth by building more roads and reflating the property market by easing restrictions, so pick up in FAI and property investment makes sense.

However, faster retail sales growth and a fall in unemployment don’t sit with a lot of the other evidence of factory shutdowns, collapsing auto sales and sharply slowing import growth.

It also makes little sense that the surge in industrial production growth was led by the industries hit the hardest by tariffs and with large regional import components – telecoms (10.2%y/y), machinery (15.2%), non-metal minerals (15.4%) – when we know regional exports collapsed in March (Singapore’s electronic exports data were released overnight and showed contraction of 26.7%y/y (from -8.2%), a 6-year low.

Introduction: Chinese GDP figures beat forecasts

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

China has batted away concerns that its economy is faltering, by posting better-than-expected growth figures.

Despite the pressure of Donald Trump’s trade war, the Chinese economy grew at an annual pace of 6.4% in the first three months of this year, official figures show.

That matches the previous quarter’s growth rate, and suggests Beijing’s stimulus programme succeed in warding off a slowdown and a potential hard landing.

Economists had expected growth to slow to 6.3%, down from 6.8% a year ago, as the trade dispute with America -- and slowing global growth -- hit the world’s second largest economy.

China’s industrial heartland, and its swelling consumer base, were both more robust than economists had feared.

Industrial production surged by 8.5% year-on-year in March, the strongest performance in over four years.

Retail sales also smashed forecasts, up 8.7% in March, up from 8.2% previously.

In a further boost, China’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2% and property investment jumped to 11.8% year-on-year, from 11.6%.

The news has sent a gust of relief through the financial markets, given China’s crucial role in the global economy.

As Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, puts it:

“There is no denying that China’s economy ended the first quarter on a stronger note.

China’s economy will bottom out before long if it has not already.”

But there is one proviso.... exactly how reliable is Chinese data, given the pressure to keep hitting the government’s targets, and the sheer size of its economy?

Also coming up today

New Uk inflation figures will show if the cost of living in Britain, and Europe, rose last month.

Economists predict the UK’s consumer prices index picked up to 2% in March, up from 1.9% in April. That would take the shine off Tuesday’s earnings figures, which showed nominal wage growth at a 10-year high.

Eurozone inflation is expected to be weaker, dropping from 1.5% to 1.4% per year.

The agenda

  • 9.30am BST: UK inflation report for March
  • 9.30am BST: UK house price report for February
  • 10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for March

Updated

 

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