Closing summary: Trade tensions back in focus as Huawei blocked
Google’s dominant Android operating system has been co-opted to US President Donald Trump’s trade dispute with China; investors appear not to be pleased.
US stock markets have sold off in early trading on Wall Street, after a day of pain on most of Europe’s major stock markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered the most in early trading, down by 1.4% within the first half hour.
The FTSE 100 is one of the stronger performers, down by 0.5% with about 90 minutes left of trading on Monday, but Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac 40 have lost about 1.6% and 1.5% respectively at the time of writing.
It won’t have much of an impact for those who are currently owners of Huawei devices running Android, but investors appear to fear that Google’s decision to withdraw its business from the Chinese smartphone maker (to comply with a White House edict) will have broader ramifications for the simmering trade dispute.
Neither Google nor Huawei will be happy, according to Matthew Kendall, chief telecoms editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He said:
For Huawei, it deals a major blow to its expansion plans outside of its home market.
For Google, the decision sours relations with a major global smartphone manufacturer and perhaps risks spooking other smartphone manufacturers into contemplating the need for a serious alternative to Google’s Android operating system.
Trump may be determined to leave his mark on the US-China trading relationship, but American blue-chip companies are just as exposed to tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade between the world’s two largest economies. Just take a look at shares in Apple, which manufactures iPhones in China: down by 3.4% at the time of writing.
That mutual dependence gives hope of a deal – though we may have to wait for it – according to Rupert Thompson, head of research at investment firm Kingswood,
On balance, we still believe some kind of deal will eventually be reached – most likely at a [Chinese president] Xi [Jinping]/Trump meeting at the G20 summit in late June. It is after all ultimately in both their best interests to do so. That said, there is now a clear risk that an unwillingness by both sides to be seen to cave in to the other could stymie a deal and lead to further escalation in early July.
Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic Irish budget carrier Ryanair was one of the main corporate reporters. Annual results showed its lowest profit in four years while it forecast another slide this year, as air fares fell on the back of Brexit uncertainty and fierce competition in Europe.
Jaguar Land Rover confirmed that its massive writedown in the third quarter pushed it to a record loss – although Britain’s largest carmaker, owned by India’s Tata Motors, also had some good news, in the form of a return to profitability in the fourth quarter of the year, when it recorded a £120m pretax profit.
Thank you for reading today – and please do join us tomorrow for more coverage of economics, markets and companies. JJ
A lot of US tech stocks are suffering from the Huawei fallout, but the American telecoms sector has had some good news today.
Sprint shares are up by 26% after regulators said a merger with T-Mobile could continue.
The chairman of the US Federal Communications Commission says he plans to recommend the agency approve the $26.5bn merger of wireless carriers T-Mobile and Sprint, saying it’ll speed up 5G deployment in the US.
FCC Chairman Ajit Pai also said Monday that the combination will help bring faster mobile broadband to rural Americans.
US shares fall as Huawei's Android block highlights trade tensions
The major US stock market indices have fallen at the opening bell in Wall Street trading.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 1.25%, while the S&P 500 fell o.68% and the Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.55% at the open.
With a few minutes to go to the opening bell on Wall Street, a quick update on futures prices:
Nasdaq 100 futures are down by 1.6%, Dow Jones industrial average futures are down by 0.7%, and S&P 500 futures have lost 0.8%.
Until the end of last year Thomas Cook was still in the FTSE 250 index tracking mid-cap stocks – hardly matching its heyday as one of London’s blue-chip stocks, but still hanging in there. Now, however, it is truly in the ranks of penny stocks.
The venerable tour operator – in all likelihood the world’s oldest – has lost a few more of those pennies in trading today. Shares are down by 15% today, to 10.1p.
There is not much new today – and big share moves need to be taken with a pinch of salt when a valuation has shrunk so dramatically – but it confirms that investors are really weighing up whether the company can continue to trade as it is. Even the usually cautious Financial Times raised the prospect of collapse in its weekend edition.
Today’s fall follows a 40% collapse over the course of Friday. That was prompted by a City investment bank report that shares were essentially worthless.
I think we can call this a sell-off now on European stock markets.
The FTSE 100 is the strongest across the major indices at lunchtime in London, down by 0.9%. Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac 40 are down by 1.6% each, while Italy’s FTSE MIB has lost 2.7%.
Futures for US indices are still calling a lurch lower at the open on Wall Street.
Shares in FTSE 100-listed Coke bottler, Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, have fallen steeply after the separate Coca-Cola Company reversed plans to franchise its African bottling business.
Coca-Cola HBC was seen as a prime contender to take on the African operation.
Shares were down by 7.4% at the time of writing.
The New York Times report alleged that transactions involving Trump’s foundation set off suspicious activity alerts on Deutsche Bank’s systems. However, the bank allegedly did not report the transactions to regulators.
Deutsche Bank denied the report.
“At no time was an investigator prevented from escalating activity identified as potentially suspicious,” Deutsche Bank said in a statement. “Furthermore, the suggestion that anyone was reassigned or fired in an effort to quash concerns relating to any client is categorically false.”
It comes at a difficult time for Deutsche Bank, after it was forced to abandon merger plans with Commerzbank. It has also struggled to turn around its corporate and investment bank.
Donald Trump denies report on Deutsche Bank transactions
US President Donald Trump has denied reports that employees at German lender Deutsche Bank flagged concerns over money laundering.
The New York Times reported on Sunday that anti-money-laundering specialists at Deutsche Bank recommended in 2016 and 2017 that multiple transactions involving legal entities controlled by Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, be reported to a federal financial-crimes watchdog.
Trump described the NYT’s reporting as “phony” and described Detusche Bank as “very good and highly professional”, in a barrage of tweets posted early on Monday in the US.
The report contributed to Deutsche Bank shares falling to a record low on Monday morning. Shares in the German lender were down by 2.8% at the time of writing.
Confirmation that Jaguar Land Rover’s annual loss was the largest in its history.
Britain’s largest carmaker, owned by India’s Tata Motors, pointed to a return to profitability in the fourth quarter of the year, when it recorded a £120m pretax profit, writes the Guardian’s Rob Davies.
But the improvement was overshadowed by the vast loss for the year as a whole, which was mostly because of a writedown it took in the third quarter of the year.
Here’s the full write-up of the JLR results:
It’s also worth noting that Jaguar Land Rover revenues fell by £1.6bn year-on-year to £24.2bn – a 6% decline.
Slumping Chinese sales have been JLR’s big problem. The company underperformed rivals in the region, and has seen annualised sales falls of over 40% in recent months.
*This post has been edited to add in the annual revenues figure.
Updated
JLR’s messaging around the results is emphasising its turnaround plans. It announced 4,500 job losses in January in a bid to realise £2.5bn in cost cuts and efficiency savings.
Ralf Speth, Jaguar Land Rover chief executive, said:
Jaguar Land Rover has been one of the first companies in its sector to address the multiple headwinds simultaneously sweeping the automotive industry. We are taking concerted action to reduce complexity and to transform our business through cost and cash flow improvements.
The company has returned to profitability in the fourth quarter and already delivered £1.25 billion of efficiencies and savings.
Speth said the JLR is now “a transformed company that is leaner and fitter” after facing “structural and cyclical issues” in the past year.
Jaguar Land Rover reports big annual loss
Jaguar Land Rover lost £358m in its last financial year – before taking into account £3.3bn in previously reported exceptional costs mostly associated with an accounting writedown.
Britain’s largest carmaker, which is owned by India’s Tata Motors, said revenues came in at £7.1bn in the fourth quarter of the year ending on 31 March.
The results for the year were always going to be overshadowed by a £3.1bn writedown on the value of its investments in the previous quarter, after it was forced to acknowledge that investments in China were less valuable than previously thought.
JLR made profits of £269m in the fourth quarter, before exceptional costs related to its restructuring.
US stock market futures suggest that trade tensions are going to take their toll again.
Nasdaq futures prices suggest the tech-heavy index will fall by 1.1%. Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average are down by 0.4%, and by 0.5% for the S&P 500.
Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at Russian investment bank VTB Capital, said:
The recent escalation in the US-China trade dispute threatens to worsen the outlook for world trade at a time when trade volumes exhibit negative growth as well as dampening hopes of a recovery in the global economy. This is unsettling equity markets and increasing the risk of a stiff correction.
BP is not happy with the Greenpeace protestors blockading their offices. The activists earlier abseiled down from the top of the building and put letters reading “climate emergency” over the office windows.
BP said that impeding safe entry and exit from the building was dangerous and “clearly a matter for the police to resolve as swiftly as possible.”
Greenpeace intends to stay there for a week. The BP statement added:
We welcome discussion, debate, even peaceful protest on the important matter of how we must all work together to address the climate challenge.
Ryanair shares are down by 3.4%, after profits for its last financial year fell by 30%.
The budget airline predicted another slide in profits in the current year, as air fares fell on the back of Brexit uncertainty and fierce competition in Europe, writes the Guardian’s Julia Kollewe.
Michael O’Leary, the Ryanair chief executive, said fares would continue to fall in the UK and Germany, pointing to consumer nervousness about Brexit. “There is a later booking pattern and we’re having to stimulate bookings with lower air fares,” he said.
Profits were also dragged down by higher fuel costs and cabin crew strikes last summer. Ryanair’s staff bill rose by €200m, including a 20% pay increase for pilots.
You can read more on Ryanair’s troubles here:
It looks like that retreat in oil price futures is starting to tell on the FTSE 100. Brent futures are still up by 0.4% for the day, but are now trading at $72.50 per barrel, after earlier hitting $73.40.
The FTSE 100 has rapidly dropped back; there are now no companies up by more than 1%, and the broader index is down by 0.6%.
Huawei has broken cover – with some reassurance for owners of its devices.
Huawei said it would continue to provide security updates and services for its smartphones and tablets after Google said it would comply with an order barring the Chinese company from updates to its Android operating system, Reuters reports.
“We have made substantial contributions to the development and growth of Android around the world,” a spokesman said on Monday.
Huawei will continue to provide security updates and after-sales services to all existing Huawei and Honor smartphone and tablet products, covering those that have been sold and that are still in stock globally.
We will continue to build a safe and sustainable software ecosystem, in order to provide the best experience for all users globally.
Stock markets have not built up much momentum at the start of the week, with major European companies mainly flat.
The Stoxx 600 index, which tracks share prices across Europe’s main markets, was flat as we approached mid-morning.
London’s FTSE 100 is now down by about 0.2%, with oil companies helping to sustain the index.
Brent crude oil futures retreated slightly after earlier highs, dropping back below $72 per barrel, although prices are still up by 0.5% for the day.
The Greenpeace activists blockading the BP offices are trying to keep the building closed for the next seven days.
The group accused BP of “fuelling” the emergency and called on the company to “end the search for new oil and gas and start a rapid switch to 100% renewables”, writes the Guardian’s Matthew Weaver.
You can read more detail on the blockade here:
All is not well in London’s property market (for owners, at least). Activity was at a record low in the first quarter of the year, according to listed estate agent Foxtons. They blamed Brexit for the downturn.
Foxtons’ group revenue for the first quarter of 2019 was £23.8m, compared to £24.5m in the first quarter of last year, it reported on Monday.
While the results were in line with expectations, the company gave little sign that it expects a pick-up any time soon. In its trading statement Foxtons said:
Revenue in the sales business declined as conditions in the London property market remain very challenging. Sales volumes continue to be at record low levels and ongoing Brexit uncertainty is impacting consumer confidence.
There’s a notable move in the Australian dollar this morning, up by 0.9% against the US dollar.
Australia went to the polls on Saturday, with a surprise win for the ruling Liberal National Coalition, which proposed sweeping tax cuts which are expected to raise economic growth.
Fritz Louw, a currency analyst at MUFG, said:
That PM Scott Morrison took the proposed tax cuts to the election could indicate a mandate to pass it through the senate where the government does not have a majority.
Updated
Equities had mixed fortunes this morning – but we have had another big reminder of the trade tensions which roiled stock markets last week.
Google has suspended Huawei’s access to updates of its Android operating system and chipmakers have reportedly cut off supplies to the Chinese telecoms company, complying with orders from the US government as it seeks to blacklist Huawei around the world, write the Guardian’s Nadeem Badshah and Lily Kuo.
Current owners of Huawei devices will still be able to use Google apps, but the next generation of devices could be affected.
Huawei has taken a central role in the dispute between US President Donald Trump and China, after the company – which is a leader in network equipment as well as consumer devices – was banned from critical applications by the security services of several countries. Notably, the UK was not one of them.
You can read a lot more detail (on a story which will run and run) here:
Activists at Greenpeace UK appear to have blockaded BP’s London headquarters, saying that “business as usual is just not an option”.
The protestors have put themselves in heavy containers blocking the entrances to the offices in St James’s Square, according to tweets from Greenpeace.
BP has come under sustained pressure from campaign groups and investors to explain how it will decarbonise.
“They are fuelling a #ClimateEmergency that threatens millions of lives. BP must clean up or clear out”, Greenpeace wrote.
Other airlines have caught a cold from Ryanair: Easyjet and International Consolidated Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways, are the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 in early trading.
Easyjet lost 2.2%, while IAG lost 1.5%. Travel company Tui lost 1%.
The broader FTSE 100 index edged up in the first 10 minutes of trading, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 has lost about 0.2%.
Ryanair reports weakest profits in four years
Irish budget airline Ryanair on Monday reported its weakest annual profit in four years, amid intense competition on fares.
After tax profits (excluding some exceptional items) fell to €1.02bn (£900m) for its financial year to 31 March, down from €1.45bn the previous year.
Shares fell by 5% at the start of trading.
The airline’s outspoken chief executive, Michael O’Leary, blamed “attritional fare wars” for the weakness.
“Frankly, if we are in a period where there are going to be attritional fare wars... profits will suffer for a year or two and I think that is what shareholders should expect,” O’Leary said in a video presentation.
Updated
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Oil prices have rallied at the start of the week on a familiar script: sustained production cuts from the Opec cartel and some threatening tweets from the world’s most powerful man.
Brent crude futures prices earlier hit $73.40 per barrel, the highest since April 26, and was up by 1.4% for the morning at the time of writing.
Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday there was consensus among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil producers to drive down crude inventories “gently” but he would remain responsive to the needs of a “fragile market”. Saudi oil tankers were last week attacked.
United Arab Emirates energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei earlier told reporters that relaxing supply cuts was not the right decision.
Prices look “well supported” at current levels, said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group.
Oil has already rallied around 40% since the start of the year, thanks mainly to OPEC limiting supply. Investors had been growing nervous that OPEC could look to remove the production limits at its next meeting in June, in light of tightening global supply and elevated prices.
US President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire, threatening Iran on Twitter. Some analysts say that John Bolton, his hawkish national security adviser, may have a hand in the increasingly bellicose tone towards the Middle Eastern state.
Elsewhere, economists had expected Japan to be in a recession in the first quarter. But the consensus forecast of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth was way out – in fact, it came in at 0.5%. However, economists warned that the underlying picture was still less than stellar, with the headline figure boosted by a fall in imports.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Eurozone current account (March)
- 9am BST: Speech by Peter Praet, chief economist at the European Central Bank
- 5:30pm: Speech by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England