Closing summary
The sell-off in world stock markets is gathering pace as traders fret about the global manufacturing recession, the fallout from trade wars on the US economy and a potential no-deal Brexit.
- Dow Jones down nearly 300 points, or 1.12%, at 26,276.37
- S&P 500 down 35 points, or 1.19%, at 2905.23
- Nasdaq down 1.24%, or 98 points, at 7810.56
- FTSE 100 index down 2.55%, or 188 points, at 7172.56
- Germany’s Dax down 1.88%, or 230 points, at 12,033.58
- CAC down 2.3%, or 129 points, at 5468.51
- Italy’s FTSE Mib down 1.61%, or 352 points, at 21,573.23
The pound, which fell 0.6% against the dollar this morning and 0.4% against the euro, has largely recovered. It is now down 0.06% against the dollar at $1.2298, and 0.19% lower versus the euro at €1.1234.
We are signing off for today and will be back tomorrow. Thank you for all your comments.
Updated
The sell-off on Wall Street is gathering pace – the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 are all down 1%, shortly after the opening bell.
The ADP monthly payrolls report disappointed the market today. Private-sector companies in the US hired 135,000 more workers in September, while some had expected 140,000 more jobs. It was the smallest gain since June. Crucially, the previous month’s reading was revised sharply lower to 157,000 from 195,000. This doesn’t bode well for the official payrolls figures, out on Friday…
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Wall Street down 0.7%
Wall Street has fallen at the open.
- Dow Jones down 184 points, or 0.69%, at 26,338.63
- S&P 500 down 19 points, or 0.65%, at 2921.10
- Nasdaq down 57 points, or 0.73%, at 7850.87
And in Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 index and France’s CAC are on track for their biggest daily falls since 5 August.
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Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, says businesses across the UK want the Prime Minister to get a Brexit deal – not just get Brexit done. He warned of the economic chaos that would follow a no-deal departure from the EU.
The prime minister repeated his wish to reach an agreement with the EU, but over the next two weeks businesses need to see these intentions turn into concrete reality. In the real world, companies are still facing a nail-biting period ahead and the unwanted prospect of a messy and disorderly exit on the 31st of October.
The reality is that neither the UK government nor many businesses are fully ready for a no-deal exit from the EU on the 31st of October. No one should downplay the disruption and economic dislocation that would be caused by a messy departure.
Lunchtime summary
So, to recap: Sterling fell 0.6% against the dollar this morning but is off its lows, trading 0.07% lower at $1.2296. It has also recovered against the euro, down 0.05% at €1.1250.
Boris Johnson’s keynote speech at the Conservative party conference in Manchester had next to no impact on markets however.
Shares around the globe are being hammered by fears over economic growth and the fallout from the US-China trade war. The selling was triggered by poor manufacturing surveys in the US, Europe and China in the last couple of days, and a dismal construction report for the UK this morning.
In the UK, that’s been compounded by Brexit worries. The FTSE 100 index is the biggest faller among Europe’s main stock markets. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has hit a one-month low, falling 1.6%.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index down 2.18%, or 160.57 points, at 7199.75
- Germany’s Dax down 1.27% at 12,108.30
- France’s CAC down 1.67% at 5504.40
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 1.33% at 21,635.09
Here are our full stories on chairman Vernon Hill’s departure from Metro Bank, the lender he founded in 2010, and the creation of the world’s biggest online betting firm, led by the owner of Paddy Power.
The £10bn all-share deal will bring together Flutter Entertainment, the owner of Paddy Power and Betfair, and The Stars Group (TSG), which owns Sky Bet and Poker Stars.
Sterling is off its lows, now down about 0.1% against both the dollar and the euro. It was little moved immediately after Johnson’s speech, when it traded down 0.4% against the dollar and 0.3% lower against the euro.
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The Institute of Directors has reacted cautiously to the prime minister’s speech in Manchester. Its director of policy, Edwin Morgan, said:
Business leaders keenly hope there is space for a deal, but we are fast running out of road. We await the details behind the government’s proposals, but the issues in addressing the Irish border are not just technical in nature, and they can’t be treated in isolation. Moreover, avoiding a hard border can’t put the compliance burden so high on businesses that it aggravates the existing challenges while creating a whole new set of problems.
The lobby once again warned that a no-deal exit would “not relieve uncertainty but exacerbate it,” squashing investment and distracting ever further from urgent domestic issues.
We will continue to do all we can to help firms prepare for the potential impact of no deal, but for many, the injurious effects of a disorderly Brexit simply cannot be planned away. On top of this, there is still no confirmation of no deal tariff changes or any further detail since March on how trade across the Irish border will be managed in practice. Small firms need this clarity as well as targeted assistance to see them through the Brexit tumult.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid says:
What is hard to argue with is that the global manufacturing sector is now very much in a recession.
This now makes an already important Fed meeting later this month even more of a crucial risk event.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this year in September and indicated that future rates cuts would depend on the economic data.
My economics colleague Phillip Inman has also looked at today’s moves in markets.
The World Trade Organization warned yesterday that the outbreak of tariff wars pose a threat to jobs and living standards as it slashed its forecast for trade growth during 2019.
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Stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street, after US shares hit a one-month low yesterday following the ISM manufacturing shock.
The Dow Jones is expected to open 160 points, or 0.6% lower, while the S&P 500 is seen down nearly 17 points, or 0.57% , and the Nasdaq is set to open more than 50 points down, a 0.68% drop.
Our Brexit correspondent Lisa O’Carroll has just spoken to Boris Johnson’s dad.
Meanwhile, Thomas Cook staff who lost their jobs when the 178-year-old travel company collapsed at the beginning of last week, are protesting in Westminster. They have handed in petitions at Downing Street and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). to demand an urgent inquiry into the firm’s demise.
“Let’s get Brexit done,” Johnson repeats, as he finishes his speech. He spoke for about 45 minutes, and stuck to his mantra of the UK leaving the EU by 31 October.
Markets were unmoved by his comments as they contained few details of the Brexit negotiations.
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There has been little impact on sterling. The pound is still down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2255 and 0.3% lower against the euro at €1.1219.
The FTSE 100 index continues to slide. It’s now down more than 150 points at 7209.61, a 2.05% drop.
Boris Johnson is giving his keynote speech at the Tory party conference in Manchester. More on our politics live blog here.
You can read more on Ofgem’s website.
Ofgem has appointed Jonathan Brearley, its current executive director for systems and networks, as chief executive. He will take over from Dermot Nolan at the end of February.
The energy watchdog’s chairman Martin Cave said:
Jonathan will take up his new role at a time of unparalleled change in the energy industry in order to meet the pressing need to decarbonise.
Ofgem’s role is to ensure that consumers, especially the vulnerable are protected from sharp practice and receive fair treatment.
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Brexit headlines popping up on Reuters:
A European Commission spokeswoman says the commission president Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a call with Boris Johnson at 3:15pm GMT (2:15pm BST). She says the EU will examine objectively any UK proposals, and stresses that the EU wants a deal.
She adds that a legally operable solution must be reached that meets all goals of the Irish “backstop”.
The pound is now down 0.42% against the dollar, off earlier lows when it was down 0.6%; it’s also recouped some ground against the euro, although it is still 0.26% lower against the single currency.
There are only three risers on the FTSE 100 index at the moment: Flutter is up nearly 20% following the near £10bn merger gambling deal that will unite the owners of Paddy Power and Poker Stars. Tesco is 0.5% ahead and metals mining firmn Polymetal International is the third gainer, up 0.4%.
The FTSE as a whole continues to slide on global growth and Brexit worries. It is down 1.74%, or 128 points, at 7232.20.
Returning to the main UK corporate story today, the surprise departure of Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis, my colleague Kalyeena Makortoff has done a profile of the new Tesco boss, Ken Murphy, who will take over next summer.
The 52-year-old Irishman is described as a “Boots lifer,” who has spent his entire career so far in health and beauty retail.
Equities are in full retreat this morning, with European stock exchanges shedding 1% or more. Markets have been hit by yesterday’s US manufacturing shock, poor UK construction figures this morning and fears that Boris Johnson’s Brexit offer will not lead to an agreement with the EU.
The FTSE 100 index in London is the worst-performing market, down 1.65% or 121 points at 7238.41. Sterling has slid nearly 0.6% to $1.2233.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading firm IG, says:
The risk-off atmosphere created by yesterday’s US ISM [manufacturing] miss continues to hang over markets. European equities have turned firmly lower in early trading, on the very reasonable assumption that, if things are that bad for the US, then they must be even worse for Europe.
And right on cue, German GDP forecasts have been downgraded. Following the theme, it is clear that a tough outlook for Germany makes things even worse for southern Europe’s moribund economies, with or without another half-hearted dose of QE from the ECB. We are rapidly moving away from the realms of what central banks can do, but governments refuse to pick up the slack. How long equities can remain immune in such an environment remains to be seen.
Mark Robinson, chief executive of public sector procurement firm Scape Group, says it is concerning that construction activity is falling steeply at the start of autumn.
We are seeing the biggest decline in new work, new orders and employment levels for a decade, when we were in the middle of a financial crisis. The parallels between now and then cannot be ignored. We are facing significant economic upheaval with no end to the uncertainty in sight and the construction sector is responding accordingly, with both public and private sector clients exercising caution.
Civil engineering work, which represents essential road and rail projects that keep our local communities moving and our economies growing, are grinding to a halt and even big ticket items like HS2 are being called into question.
We desperately need clarity from the government on their legislative programme and detail on whether the EU is going to accept Boris’ proposed deal. Provide us with this clarity and businesses will finally be able to make decisions on projects that have been paused and pushed to the side. We shouldn’t hold our breathe and hope for an immediate Brexit bounce, but we can be mildly optimistic that there will be an up-tick in activity.
The UK construction survey also showed that companies’ input prices rose strongly, as the weaker pound pushed up the cost of fuel and imported materials, such as tiles from Spain.
Hayes of IHS Markit warned of a long slump in Britain’s construction industry.
Low confidence has subsequently caused construction order books to fall substantially. Panellists reported another sharp drop in demand in September that was one of the strongest in the post-crisis era.
Forward-looking indicators suggest that businesses are bracing themselves for a protracted construction slump, with input purchasing and employment both falling at rates unsurpassed since 2010.
Overall, the performance of the UK economy once again hinges on the service sector showing a marked degree of resilience to offset the weakness seen in construction and manufacturing.
Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association and honorary Professor at the Bartlett School of Construction of Project Management at UCL in London, tweeted:
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IHS Markit/CIPS, which compiled the UK construction survey, said Brexit uncertainty was to blame for the latest decline in activity.
Joe Hayes, economist at IHS Markit, said
The UK construction sector remained mired in a downturn at the end of the third quarter, according to the latest PMI data. Activity is being pulled down at its second-fastest clip for over a decade as firms are buffeted by client hesitancy, heightened Brexit uncertainty and a weak outlook for the UK economy.
The commercial sector was a notable casualty in September, with building activity here falling at the fastest rate since April 2009, highlighting the damaging effects of project delays and belt-tightening.
Pound sinks 0.5%
The pound has also fallen further, sinking 0.5% against the dollar to $1.2241. Against the euro, it is 0.3% lower, at €1.1223.
Markets fear that Boris Johnson’s proposal to replace the Irish border “backstop” will not secure a Brexit agreement with the EU.
Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Japanese bank Mizuho, told Reuters:
I don’t sense an agreement between the two sides. We’ll see a lower sterling [going forward].
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The FTSE 100 index has tumbled more than 100 points to 7252.44, a 1.47% decline, as traders worry about the worsening economic outlook around the globe.
Jobs in the construction sector are being cut at the fastest pace since December 2010. The downturn has spread across all areas, with commercial construction the worst-performing.
UK construction worsens
The UK’s construction industry is shrinking at a faster pace, according to the latest PMI survey. The headline reading fell to 43.3 in September from 45 in August.
IHS Markit/CIPS, who compile the monthly survey, said:
Building activity fell at the second-fastest rate since April 2009, only narrowly outpaced by June’s decline. A historically steep drop in new orders was also registered, while firms trimmed employment at the fastest rate since the end of 2010 due to unfavourable demand, client hesitancy and low confidence.
German institutes slash growth forecasts
Adding to the economic gloom sparked by yesterday’s dismal manufacturing numbers in the US and elsewhere, Germany’s leading economic institutes have slashed their growth forecasts.
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is now seen growing 0.5% this year and 1.1% next, compared with April estimates of 0.8% and 1.8%. The institutes are predicting a recovery to 1.4% growth in 2021.
The institutes said:
An economic crisis with a pronounced underutilisation of the German economy is ... not in sight, although the cyclical downside risks are currently high.
The revisions feed into the German government’s own growth projections. There are mounting concerns that Germany’s slowdown, driven by a recession in its export-reliant manufacturing sector, will affect the rest of Europe.
Analysts at Daiwa say:
In the currency market, after a modest bounce yesterday afternoon, sterling is weakening again (close to 0.89/€) ahead of Boris Johnson’s speech to the Conservative Party conference which, amid the jingoism, will see him preach to the converted about his imminent Brexit proposals.
It remains to be seen, however, how much (honest) detail about those plans – extraordinarily, the first he’ll have made since the referendum more than three years ago – will actually be made available today. However, the substance reported in the press suggests proposals that have minimal chance of being agreed by the EU, and seem designed principally to allow Johnson to blame the Europeans for any failure to reach a deal before the end of October. Of course, our baseline forecast is still that the Article 50 deadline will be extended we still expect.
Shares are also being hammered by rising global economic gloom, after yesterday’s US manufacturing shock and poor factory surveys in the UK and the rest of Europe.
- UK’s FTSE 100 down 1.2%
- Germany’s Dax down 0.9%
- France’s CAC down 1%
- Spain’s Ibex down 0.8%
Malcolm Barr, economist at JPMorgan Chase, is sceptical that Boris Johnson’s Brexit offer will be well received in Brussels.
Although the UK has moved towards the EU position a little, we doubt the EU will regard it as viable basis upon which to begin a detailed negotiation at this stage. As we wrote yesterday, expect acrimony to ensue. According to some media reports, the UK is set to withdraw from the talks if the EU do not respond positively to the proposal outlined today.
The FTSE 100 index is now more than 80 points lower, at 7277.04 - a decline of 1.14%. The pound is also down as just discussed. Markets are decidedly nervous as they wait for Boris Johnson to unveil his final Brexit offer.
My colleagues on politics write:
In his speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester on Wednesday, the embattled prime minister will outline what he will call a “fair and reasonable compromise”, which Downing Street says has been drawn up after 70 hours of discussions with other EU member states.
He will insist that if the EU27 fails to engage with his proposals, he will press ahead with a no-deal Brexit at the end of October.
Brussels has warned there will be a cold reception if the offer resembles draft proposals leaked on Monday, which would involve customs clearance sites five to 10 miles from the Irish border – later denied by Johnson.
Pound down ahead of UK's Brexit offer
The pound is lower this morning, despite news that Boris Johnson has struck a secret deal with the Democratic Unionist party. Sterling is trading 0.22% lower against the dollar at $1.1236, and has slipped 0.12% against the euro, to €1.1240.
Here is our story:
Boris Johnson has struck a secret deal with the Democratic Unionist party involving radical proposals for a Belfast-Dublin “bilateral lock” on post-Brexit arrangements on the island of Ireland.
Details have emerged of the prime minister’s final Brexit offer that he will lay out on Wednesday, with Northern Ireland staying under EU single market regulations for agri-food and manufactured goods until at least 2025, at which point its assembly in Stormont will decide whether to continue alignment with EU or UK standards.
Connor Campbell, financial analyst at trading platform Spreadex, says:
Reports that Boris Johnson has struck a deal with the DUP failed to lift sterling’s spirits on Wednesday, mainly because the ‘two borders’ plan is unlikely to how much sway with Dublin or the EU. That left cable down 0.2%, at its own one-month nadir of $1.2276, with the pound also dipping 0.1% against the euro to lurk at its worst price in approaching 3-weeks.
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Metro Bank chairman steps down
Vernon Hill, the chairman and founder of Britain’s troubled Metro Bank, will also step down, by the end of the year. Metro Bank has yet to find a successor.
The lender has seen its shares plummet around 90% this year after disclosing an accounting error, and amid concerns that its branch-reliant business model could prove outdated in an industry that is going digital.
Michael Snyder, an independent director at Metro Bank, says:
The board shares Vernon’s view that Metro Bank has now reached a point where an independent chairperson is appropriate to oversee the next stage of our journey.
Metro Bank opened in London in 2010 - the first new bank to open on Britain’s high streets for more than a century. It hoped to lure customers with a flexible and efficient service - and by being dog-friendly.
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Paddy Power and Poker Stars in £9.3bn merger
In the gambling world, the owners of Paddy Power Betfair and Poker Stars are merging in a £9.3bn deal to create one of the world’s biggest online betting and gambling companies.
Shares in Flutter Entertainment jumped 15% after the firm, formerly known as Paddy Power Betfair, said it would combine with Stars Group, the Nasdaq- and Toronto-listed owner of Poker Stars in an all-share deal.
Combined annual revenues are about £3.8bn and the new company will have around 4 million active customers.
The companies say the new group will be a global leader in sports betting and gaming, just as the huge US market opens up. It’s been 16 months since the US Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalise sports betting.
Following the merger, shareholders of Flutter will have 54.64% of the new company, while Stars Group investors will own the rest. It will be headquartered in Dublin.
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Tesco CEO Dave Lewis quits
Let’s take a look at the corporate news.
Tesco’s boss Dave Lewis has announced his surprise departure after five years in charge of the UK’s biggest retailer. He will be replaced next summer by Ken Murphy, formerly chief commercial officer at American retail giant Walgreens Boots Alliance.
Lewis said:
My decision to step down as group chief executive is a personal one. I believe that the tenure of the chief executive should be a finite one and that now is the right time to pass the baton.
The leadership team is very strong, our strategy is clear and it is delivering. I have no doubt that Tesco will kick on again under new leadership next year.
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European shares open lower
The FTSE 100 index in London has lost 48 points at the open, falling 0.65% to 7312.22.
The UK bluechip index is the worst faller among the main stock markets in Europe, amid Brexit worries.
- Germany’s Dax down 0.3%
- France’s CAC down 0.2%
- Spain’s Ibex down 0.2%
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 0.25%
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Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, is back after being suspended in June for making controversial comments about swine fever in China.
His thoughts on manufacturing are:
Globally, the gap between sentiment and reality is the widest since 2012. Trade taxes worry manufacturers. When asked, manufacturers say they are less than happy about life, but their actions are more positive. Investors should worry about trade taxes. They should not panic about sentiment.
He also notes:
- Global bond yields rose yesterday. Some yield curves steepened. Do steeper yield curves predict an economic boom? They do not, any more than inversions predict a recession. Weaker bond markets reflected a poor Japanese auction. This reflected fewer “captive” investors (who buy for non-economic reasons). Such investors distort bond markets and bond market signals.
- In the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce process, UK Prime Minister Johnson speaks at the Conservative Party conference. Exit proposals to the EU are expected. There is no certainty among investors about the proposals, if the EU will agree a deal, if the British Parliament will pass a deal, or if Johnson will remain as prime minister.
Iaroslav Shelepko and Akash Utsav, economists at Barclays, have sent us their thoughts.
The US ISM extended its decline, plunging from multi-year highs (above 60.0) to lows (below 48.0) in just 13 months, with the global trade slowdown largely spurring the sentiment decline. The spillovers of external demand slowdown and an associated decline in business investment are particularly evident in Europe.
With manufacturing PMIs at post-GFC [global financial crisis] lows in Germany, European sentiment deteriorated further in September, touching a six-year low. We still expect domestic demand resilience to prevail over industrial recession; however, the risk that European activity could lose its remaining steam ahead of a possible no-deal Brexit in early 2020 (our baseline) looms large.
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Introduction: Global shares hit by manufacturing declines
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Stock markets around the globe have sold off, after US manufacturing activity fell to the lowest in more than a decade – sparking fears that the US-China trade war is affecting the US economy, just as Europe teeters on the brink of recession.
The UK and European manufacturing PMIs spread further gloom, while the Chinese factory report earlier in the week also remained in contraction territory.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.9%. Australian and south Korean shares have lost 1.5% and Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.26%, after Hong Kong police shot a teenage protester. Chinese markets are closed for a one-week holiday.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 1.28% and the S&P 500 lost 1.2% to hit four-week lows. Selling was triggered after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of factory activity, a closely-watched survey, dropped 1.3 points to 47.8, the lowest level since June 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.
The German and the UK factory readings were 41.7 and 48.3 respectively, also indicating further contraction. The French manufacturing sector barely expanded, with a reading of 50.1.
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:
Looking at the broader picture, it is fair to say that the worldwide manufacturing sector is in trouble. The US-China trade spat is having a knock-on effect around the globe, hence why we saw a sharp move lower in stocks yesterday. Trade talks between the US and China will continue next week, so traders will be paying close attention to any developments. The best dealers can hope for is a de-escalation in trade tensions, but it is obvious that the damage has been done.
In the UK, prime minister Boris Johnson is expected to set out his plans for the UK’s departure from the EU, with the Irish border in focus. Traders are likely to be nervous as there is chatter it could be make or break for the negotiations, Madden says.
The agenda
9.30am BST: UK construction PMI (September)
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