FTSE 100 closes lower
Anxiety over a general election has helped to pull the London stock market into the red.
As the closing auction ends, the FTSE 100 has finished 25 lower at 7306 points.
Oil giant BP was the top faller, down 3.8% after reporting a 40% fall in profits this morning.
Utility companies also ended lower, with Centrica down 2.5% and SSE losing 2%. That reflects concerns that a Labour government could impose some sweeping nationalisations.
The pound has crept higher, currently up 0.2% at $1.288.
However, there’s no guarantee yet that Britain WILL hold a general election in December (MPs will vote on a series of amendments to this plan tonight).
That may be all for today, depending on developments....
Over in Washington, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg is being grilled by senators over the two 737 Max aeroplane crashes.
Muilenburg began his hearing by apologising for mistakes made by Boeing, saying:
“We have made mistakes, and we got some things wrong”
But he also faced scrutiny over the critical flight system which has been linked to both crashes.
Here’s Associated Press’s take:
Some members of the Senate Commerce Committee clashed with Muilenburg, cutting him off when they believed he was failing to answer their questions about a key flight-control system implicated in both crashes.
Boeing successfully lobbied regulators to keep any explanation of the system, called MCAS, from pilot manuals and training. After the crashes, the company tried to blame the pilots, said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.
“Those pilots never had a chance,” Blumenthal said. Passengers “never had a chance. They were in flying coffins as a result of Boeing deciding that it was going to conceal MCAS from the pilots.”
AP continues:
Muilenburg denied that Boeing had ever blamed the pilots.
The hearing was taking place exactly one year after a 737 Max flown by Lion Air crashed off the coast of Indonesia, and about seven months after a second crash in Ethiopia. It is the first congressional testimony by a Boeing official since the first of two Max crashes that together killed 346 people.
Indonesia investigators say Boeing’s design of a key flight-control system contributed to the crash of a Lion Air Max last October. Another Max crashed in Ethiopia in March, leading to a worldwide grounding of the plane.
“Both of these accidents were entirely preventable,” said Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss.
More than a dozen relatives of passengers who died in the accidents attended the hearing. Wicker invited them to stand and hold up large photos of their relatives, which they had carried into the room. Muilenburg turned in his seat to look at them.
Thanks to the minimum wage, the proportion of low-paid workers in the UK has dropped to record levels:
Uh oh.... Reuters is reporting that the US and China may not succeed in signing a preliminary trade deal next month.
That could worry investors; over the weekend there were encouraging noises from Beijing and Washington, fuelling talk that Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could sign this Phase One deal when they meet in November.
In a blow to numismatics fans, the UK government is now melting down the commemorative coins is struck to mark Brexit.
With the Article 50 deadline now extended until 31 January, there’s not much call for coins marking Brexit on 31 October, alas.
But don’t give up hope.
Instead, coin collectors can get their hands on a new 50p hailing cartoon heroes Wallace and Gromit [whose antics on the model railway may have inspired Britain’s approach to looming Brexit deadlines....].
Updated
Here’s our news story on today’s gender pay gap statistics:
Trump: Fed hasn't got a clue
Stocks are rising on Wall Street as investors anticipate another cut in US interest rates tomorrow.
The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting today, and is expected to lower borrowing costs for the third time in 2019 on Wednesday.
US interest rates are currently 1.75% and 2% -- compared to zero in the eurozone, and -0.1% in Japan.
President Trump has just tweeted that the Fed should cut rates aggressively towards zero, at least!
Wall Street hits fresh record high
Boom! Over in New York, the S&P 500 index has hit a new all-time high.
The S&P 500 is up 7 points, or 0.25%, at 3,047.12. That beats Monday’s all-time high of 3,044.
Healthcare stocks, financial companies and industrial companies are the best-performing sectors
Office equipment maker Xerox is the top riser, up 15% after posting a 19% jump in pre-tax profits.
Pharmaceuticals firms are also pushing the S&P 500 up. Merck (+2.4)% has reported that strong sales of cancer drug Keytruda helped to grow earnings by 27%. Pfizer (+3%) also beat expectations on earnings and revenue in the last quarter, and hiked its guidance.
We reported this yesterday, but it bears repeating...Women are paid just £380,000 on average over their lifetimes compared with £643,000 for men, “thanks” to the gender pay gap.
As this chart shows, US consumer confidence has cooled in recent months, after a long run upwards.
That may concern the White House, with just 12 month until the presidential election.
Economic news from America: US consumer confidence has fallen this month, in a sign that the economy may be weakening.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index has dipped to 125.9 for October, down from 126.3 in September.
Americans interviewed for the survey said their current economic situation had improved, but their future economic expectations have deteriorated. Some expressed concerned about business conditions, and their future job prospects.
Confidence levels are still high in historic terms, though:
This chart, from the ONS’s gender pay gap report, highlights how older women are hit hardest:
Sky News have written about this issue:
Older women workers face a stubbornly high gender pay gap while for those under 40 it has narrowed to almost zero, latest official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the gap among all full-time employees stood at 8.9% in 2019, slightly up on 2018 when it was 8.6%.
For workers aged 40 to 49, the current gap was 11.4% - having decreased substantially since 1997 when it was 24%.
But for those aged 50 and over, the disparity is more than 15% “and is not declining strongly over time”, the ONS said.
The report said that one of the reasons for differences in the gender pay gap between age groups was that women over 40 were more likely to work in lower-paid occupations.
Jane Gratton, Head of People Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, says there are several ways to tackle the gender pay gap -- including flexible working and more affordable childcare.
“Employers must identify and remove all barriers to training and career development opportunities to support women into senior level positions and enable parents and carers to thrive in skilled roles.
“As part of our People Campaign, we are working with businesses to promote flexible working, but we need stronger government initiatives to break down the wider barriers. Ensuring access to quality, affordable childcare, better careers advice for young people, and funding for high quality apprenticeships and technical education would go a long way to helping women across all sectors.
Sophie Walker, CEO of the Young Women’s Trust, disputes the claim that the gender pay gap for under-40s is almost non-existent.
She says many women are forced out of full-time employment, meaning they end up earning far less than male counterparts.
Flexible working -- allowing employees to balance parental responsibilities or caring for an elderly relative -- is key to actually fixing the problem, Walker explains:
Jon Boys, labour market economist at the CIPD, points out that finance and insurance has a glaring gender pay gap.
“On average, women now earn 91 pence for ever one pound a man earns. However, women working in the finance and insurance sectors earn just 72 pence for every one pound earned by men. In contrast, women working in employment activities, such as recruitment, earned slightly more than their male counterparts.
While we must allow for sectoral differences, the rate of change is slow and it’s likely to take years, even decades, before we see real, lasting change across all parts of our economy.
The City responds to general election
Shares in Britain’s utility firms have fallen since Labour announced its backing for a December general election (which MPs will vote on tonight).
United Utilities (-2.2%), Centrica (-2%). Seven Trent (-1.7%) and National Grid (-1.4%) are all among the top fallers on the FTSE 100 today.
Investors are reacting to the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next prime minister, and launches a sweeping renationalisation programme.
Paul Dales of Capital Economics told clients that the election result could have a big impact on the markets:
A hardish Brexit would probably hinder equities of homebuilders and financials, while Labour’s nationalisation plans would hurt equities of utilities.
Both would prevent a huge surge in the pound.
But Oliver Blackbourn of Janus Henderson Investors points out that the election might not be decisive:
An election could be the much-needed unblocker for the clogged political drain that is Brexit. However, the result needs to be decisive in favour of the pro-leave Conservative Party or the anti-no-deal rainbow of opposition parties.
A narrow Tory victory, requiring support from elsewhere to form a workable government, could simply leave us in the same clogged political situation. However, it is also unclear how a coalition of Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party would coalesce around a target Brexit outcome, let alone wider policy objectives.
The rise in the full-time gender pay gap last year could be a one-off.
ONS statistician Roger Smith points out that there was an upward blip six years ago, which later reversed:
“We also saw an increase in 2013 followed by a return to downward trend in subsequent years. However, the downward trend is a slow one regardless.”
Pound shakes off losses as election looms
Back in the markets, the pound has shaken off its early losses after the Labour party decided to back an early general election.
Sterling had been down half a cent this morning, but has now bounced back to $1.286 - unchanged on the day.
Traders may be hoping that an election will clear some of the uncertainty and deadlock away -- perhaps giving Boris Jonson a workable majority to push his deal through with.
Analyst Stephen Innes, though, points out that elections aren’t predictable....
...especially with the Liberal Democrats doing well in the polls, and the Brexit Party also in the mix:
ONS: Pay rises fastest for the poorest
There is some good news this morning: pay rose four times as fast for Britain’s lowest earners compared to its high earners.
The ONS’s Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) shows that the pay of Britain’s 10% lowest paid workers grew by 4.3% in the last year, while the 90th percentile only grew by 1%.
As this chart shows, Britain’s minimum wage has helping to lift the earnings of the lowest paid. Now, more than 10% of employee jobs are paid at, or within 20 pence of, the National Minimum Wage hourly rate (£8.21 per hour for over 25s).
However, with average real wages still lower than in 2008, there’s not much else to cheer.
Nye Cominetti, economic analyst at the Resolution Foundation, says:
“Pay growth for the typical worker in Britain returned close to pre-crisis norms over the past year, but this follows a disastrous decade meaning pay remains below pre-crisis levels.
“But there have been notable exceptions. Britain’s lowest earners enjoyed the strongest pay rises last year as a result of another big increase in the National Living Wage. As a result, their earnings grew at least four times as fast as for Britain’s top earners.
“The strong pay performance for the lowest earners – on both an hourly and a weekly basis – fully vindicates that ambition of both main parties for a higher minimum wage. But more work will be need to get everyone else’s pay packets beyond where they were before the crisis.”
There’s almost no gender pay gap between younger workers (under 40), according to today’s survey.
But for older workers, the gap is still significant.
The ONE says:
- For age groups under 40 years, the gender pay gap for full-time employees is now close to zero.
- Among 40- to 49-year-olds the gap (currently 11.4%) has decreased substantially over time.
- Among 50- to 59- year-olds and those over 60 years, the gender pay gap is over 15% and is not declining strongly over time.
- One of the reasons for differences in the gender pay gap between age groups is that women over 40 years are more likely to work in lower-paid occupations and, compared with younger women, are less likely to work as managers, directors or senior officials.
TUC: More action needed on gender pay gap
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady has warned that the gender pay gap will persist for decades, unless there is more action to help women close the gap with male workers.
She says:
“Our economy is still stacked against working women. At this rate, it will take decades to close the gender pay gap.
“Government must pick up the pace. It’s clear that publishing gender pay gaps isn’t enough on its own. Companies must also be legally required to explain how they’ll close them.
“And bosses who don’t pay women fairly should be fined.”
The TUC has also flagged up another new ONS report into pay, which shows real wages (after inflation) are still lower than in 2008.
Frances blames the austerity measures imposed since the financial crisis:
“The Conservatives have presided over the worst wage squeeze since Napoleonic times.
“Years of austerity and inaction have deepened Britain’s cost of living crisis. It’s about time politicians deliver for working families and get wages rising.”
Updated
The gender pay gap is particularly wide among the best-paid workers:
Interactive: Check out the Gender Pay Gap
The ONS have created a neat interactive tool that lets examine the gender pay gap across the UK economy.....
Updated
The largest gender pay gap among all employees is in carpenters and joiners (44%) and energy plant operatives (41%), the Office for National Statistics reports.
The lowest is in archivists and curators (negative 36%), and personal assistants and other secretaries (negative 25%).
in 2019 there was a gender pay gap of greater than zero in:
- 79% of occupations based on all employees
- 81% based on full-time employees
- 43% based on part-time employees
The pay gap between men and women working as managers, directors, or other senior roles actually widened by 2% in the last year.
That sector of the jobs market has the second-highest gender pay gap, at almost 16%.
The widest gap was recorded among ‘skilled trades’, where men working full-time get 22% more than women.
Here’s the details from today’s gender pay gap report:
UK full-time gender pay gap widens
Just in: the pay gap between men and women working full-time in the UK has widened, despite efforts to tackle the problem.
New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the UK’s full-time gender pay gap has widened to 8.9% this year, from 8.6% in 2018, in men’s favour.
For part-time workers, the gap narrowed from - 4.9% to -3.1% (meaning women still earned more than men for part-time work).
The gender pay gap among all employees fell from 17.8% in 2018 to 17.3%, so there has been some progress.
The ONS argues that the rise in the full-time gender pay gap (from 8.6% to 8.9%) isn’t statistically significant. But it does show that women in full-time work are suffering an earnings hit.
As this chart shows, the full-time gender pay gap fell steadily from 1997 to 2012, but has been stubbornly steady since.
The ONS attributes the gender pay gap to the impact of women leaving the labour force (often to care for young children), and then returning part time or at a lower level:
- The proportion of employees who held full-time jobs rather than part-time jobs increased more for women than men, but new entrants or returners to full-time jobs are likely to start from a lower pay level and may reduce average pay for full-time women employees.
- The three occupations that saw the largest increase in the proportion of full-time employee jobs held by women were: sales and customer service, elementary occupations and process, and plant and machine operatives; these all have a lower than average rate of hourly pay and will reduce the average full-time earnings among women.
More to follow....
The Bank of England’s new data also confirms that the UK mortgage market remained subdued.
It says:
Mortgage market indicators point to continued stability in the market. Net mortgage borrowing by households was little changed at £3.8 billion in September.
The stability in the monthly flows has left the annual growth rate unchanged at 3.2%. Growth rates have now remained close to this figure for the past three years.
Mortgage approvals for house purchase (an indicator for future lending) were also broadly unchanged in September, at 66,000, and remained within the narrow range seen over the past three years. Mortgage approvals for remortgage strengthened slightly to 49,000.
Consumer credit growth its five-year low
Breaking: UK consumer credit growth has hit its lowest level in five years.
New data from the Bank of England shows that growth in consumer credit slowed to 6.0% in the year to September - the lowest since 2014.
It’s another sign that consumers are retrenching in the face of ongoing Brexit confusion.
The BoE points out:
This growth rate has now been falling steadily for nearly three years.
Today’s data also shows that net credit card borrowing weakened on the month to £0.1 billion, the lowest since December 2018.
Here’s more details from the report:
- The net flow of consumer credit was £0.8 billion in September, remaining below the £1.1 billion average since July 2018.
- Net mortgage borrowing by households was little changed at £3.8 billion in September, close to the average of the past three years.
- Net finance raised by UK businesses was relatively strong in September, rising to £9.7 billion. This primarily reflected £6.5 billion net issuance of bonds and £2.9 billion of borrowing from banks.
Shares in UK housebuilders and banks are all down this morning, hit by Brexit worries and the ongoing house price stagnation.
Royal Bank of Scotland has shed 2% and Lloyds Banking Group has lost 1.6% - they’re both vulnerable to fears of an economic slowdown.
Housebuilders are also among the fallers on the FTSE 100, with Taylor Wimpey down 1.5%.
This has pulled the blue-chip index down by 28 points, or 0.4%, to 7302.
Connor Campbell says Nationwide’s house price report is weighing on the City:
A further slowdown in house price growth weighed on the likes of Barratt Developments, Berkeley Group and Taylor Wimpey.
The index’s banking sector was also in a bad mood, likely because Boris Johnson, with help from the SNP and Lib Dems, is formulating a new way to get to a December election after losing a vote on Monday.
The other European stock markets have also dipped this morning, after hitting 21-month highs yesterday.
Updated
Caveat emptor and all that, but there an argument that now is a good time to launch into the property market - given prices are barely rising.
With Brexit uncertainty weighing down demand, buyers might get a bargain. Or they could conclude that staying on the sidelines makes more sense, in case the UK economy is dragged into recession.
Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, explains the two sides of the argument:
“As the Brexit drama lurches into yet another encore, buyers are splitting into two camps – those who see the current slow market as a threat to be waited out, and those who view it as good time to strike.
“On the ‘hold off’ side of the argument, there is the understandable reluctance to buy a home that may be cheaper tomorrow.
“But the ‘buy now’ counterargument is that the combination of soft prices, lower competition for homes and fast-rising wages has opened a window of opportunity – begging the question ‘if not now, when?’
“Whether we are at the edge or the eye of the storm remains to be seen, and the prospect of another general election will inject a further dose of uncertainty into proceedings.
Back on UK house prices...
Nationwide’s report also confirms that UK property is still very pricey compared to earnings, although there has been some progress recently (as wages have picked up, and property prices have stagnated).
Geopolitical uncertainty and extreme weather also hurt BP’s profits, points out Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at interactive investor:
An average oil price of $62 for the quarter compared with $75 the previous year, driven by weak demand and the political situations in the likes of Iran and Venezuela.
While this puts an immediate strain on profit, the level is comfortably above the $55 per barrel number which BP uses as a yardstick to break even. In addition, ongoing maintenance and Hurricane Barry affected Upstream operations in particular, where earnings were sharply lower.
Over in the City....profits at BP have fallen sharply as global oil prices tumble amid gloomy forecasts for the global economy.
My colleague Jillian Ambrose explains:
The oil major reported underlying profits of $2.3bn (£1.76bn) for the last three months on Tuesday morning, compared to $3.8bn in the same months last year.
The decline comes just weeks after BP announced that chief executive Bob Dudley will step down after almost a decade at the helm.
Dudley blamed weaker global oil prices, a string of one-off financial costs and the impact of Hurricane Barry which dealt a “significant” blow to its oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in July.
Shares in BP have dipped almost 1% in early trading, down 4.4p at 507p.
Marc von Grundherr, director of London estate agent Benham and Reeves, predicts that house price growth will pick up, if political gloom lifts:
While the black cat of Brexit uncertainty continues to cross the path of UK home sellers a chill in the rate of house price growth is to be expected.
We’ve seen yet more spells of uncertainty cast across the property landscape of late and this, coupled with a seasonal slowdown in the lead up to Christmas, will do little to bring a spark back to the market this side of the New Year.
Howard Archer of EY Item Club predicts that house price inflation will remain muted:
With the economy largely struggling and the outlook highly uncertain, we suspect that house prices will remain soft in the near term at least. House prices on the Nationwide’s measure may struggle to rise more than 0.5% over 2019 – and house prices are unlikely to rise more than 1% on most other measures.
Archer also predicts prices could tumble by 5% if Britain were to leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement (a risk that has been delayed until January 2020).
Average house price growth has been falling steadily since the Brexit referendum, as this chart from Nationwide shows:
Nationwide also flags up that the number of people taking out mortgages has remained below the long-term average since the financial crisis....
Introduction: Brexit drag hits housing market
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Britain’s housing market remains firmly in a rut, as Brexit uncertainty and the prospect of a general election deters people from buying their first home, or moving house.
That’s the message from the Nationwide Building Society this morning. Its monthly house price index, just released, shows that prices only rose by 0.4% in the last year.
That makes October the 11th month in a row where prices have risen by less than 1% -- below wage growth and consumer price inflation.
During October alone, prices did rise by 0.2%, reversing a 0.2% decline in September, but the overall picture remains very subdued.
Encouraging for first-time buyers, if they have the financial resources and confidence to jump onto the housing ladder. But also a sign that economic confidence remains weak.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, cites uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EU.
“Indicators of UK economic activity have been fairly volatile in recent quarters, but the underlying pace of growth appears to have slowed as a result of weaker global growth and an intensifying of Brexit uncertainty.
To date, the slowdown has centred on business investment, while household spending has been more resilient.
With Brexit now postponed for another three months, there’s no immediate end to this uncertainty...
Gardner also points out that the UK jobs market appeared to soften over the summer, with employment down and unemployment up.
If Brexit uncertainty lifts in the months ahead, hiring is likely to recover, although there may be some upward pressure on mortgage rates as investors once again contemplate the potential for UK rate increases in the years ahead.
Nationwide’s warning comes a day after the CBI reported that UK retailers are stockpiling at record levels to cope with Brexit, and the Christmas rush, Many also reported that sales were disappointing - another sign of consumer caution.
More reaction to follow....
Also coming up today
Optimism that the US and China are making progress towards a trade deal is supporting markets, after Wall Street hit a record high last night.
Kit Juckes of Societe Generale says investors are being tempted back into stocks and emerging market currencies, while selling bonds.
Markets have started the week with equities higher, bond yields rising and risk-sensitive currencies having a blast. The Argentine Peso and Turkish Lira lead the charge this week.
However, Google’s parent company Alphabet could dampen the mood after reporting a 23% drop in profits
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg will face Congress later today over the two Boeing 737 MAX crashes in the last year in which 346 people died. He’s expected to admit that the company made mistakes, and pledge to fix the currently-grounded plane.
The agenda
- 9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit report
- 1pm GMT: Case-Shiller survey of US house prices in August
- 2pm BST: US consumer confidence report for October
Updated