Graeme Wearden 

Hong Kong recession to continue; European markets drop — as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

Protesters wave flags on top of a car park during a gathering at Edinburgh Place in the Central district of Hong Kong on Sunday.
Protesters wave flags on top of a car park during a gathering at Edinburgh Place in the Central district of Hong Kong on Sunday. Photograph: Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images

European markets close in the red

Finally, European stock markets have ended the day with a decidedly red hue.

All the main indices have lost ground, not helped by the pound and the euro gaining ground against the US dollar today (bad for overseas earners).

  • FTSE 100: down 57 points or 0.75% at 7,587
  • German DAX: Down 88 points or 0.66% at 13,249
  • French CAC: down 55 points or 0.9% at 5,982

After two weeks of gains, following the UK election, this is a return to earth for the Footsie. The temptation to bank some profits, ahead of 2020, must be strong for those investors who actually worked today (volumes remained very low).

As Fiona Cincotta of City Index says:

After an impressive 11 consecutive winning sessions the FTSE was on the back-foot heading towards the close.

With Wall Street starting in the red, a stronger pound and little for traders to grab onto in the sluggish seasonal trading period, profit taking was the order of the day.

It may be the same story tomorrow, on the final session of 2019. Until then, goodnight! GW

Updated

One US-listed stock is bucking the trend, though.

Nio, the Chinese electric car company, has surged 40% after posting better-than-expected results.

The firm dubbed China’s answer to Tesla reported a smaller loss than expected, thanks to a pick-up in revenues and higher vehicle deliveries.

Marketwatch has more details:

Nio reported a net loss for the quarter to Sept. 30 of 2.52 billion renminbi ($352.8 million), or RMB2.48 per ordinary share, after a loss of RMB9.76 billion, or RMB42.59 a share, in the same period a year ago.

Excluding nonrecurring items, such as share-based compensation expenses and accretion on redeemable non-controlling interests to redemption value, the adjusted loss was RMB2.45 billion, or RMB2.38 a share, beating the FactSet consensus of a loss of RMB2.53 a share.

Nice timing by Nio, with Tesla making its first Chinese deliveries today.

Nio’s shipments were still low, at just 4,799 vehicles in the last quarter. But that’s a 35% increase, including a new five-seater SUV.

Updated

Wall Street appears to have a post-Christmas hangover (and it’s not alone, eh?!).

Stocks are down in early trading, knocking 182 points off the Dow to 28,463.

2019 has still been a vintage year for the US market, with equities up over 20%. But the fabled Santa Rally has taken a wrong turn....

Summary

Time for a quick summary (on a quiet day).

Hong Kong is expected to slump further into recession this quarter. GDP is forecast to have shrank in October-December, for the third quarter running, due to the pro-democracy protests that have been raging for months.

Hong Kong’s finance secretary Paul Chan warned that:

Based on the situation of these few months, it is inevitable that negative growth will continue.

This means the government will be less flexible in using financial resources under an economic recession.”

Chan is now pledging growth-friendly measures in the City’s next budget, due in February.

Financial workers’ bonuses are expected to be hit hard by the downturn, hitting their lowest levels since the financial crisis.

Hong Kong’s protest movement is expected to intensify its efforts this week, with demonstrations expected to disrupt shopping around the New Year celebrations.

In other news:

Updated

Just in: The US trade deficit has unexpectedly shrunk.

Imports into America fell by 1.3% in November, while exports rose by 0.7%, according to the Census Bureau.

That narrows the trade deficit to $63.2bn, down from $66.5bn a month ago, and much less than the $68.7 billion expected:

That will cheer the White House, given president Trump’s attempts to cut the trade gap (with mixed results).

Some 1,200 kilometres north east of Hong Kong, Tesla has been delivering its fist Chinese-manufactured cars -- to some of its own staff.

It’s a major major milestone in the electric carmaker’s global expansion efforts, says my colleague Jasper Jolly:

The first 15 Model 3 cars to roll off the line at the US carmaker’s Shanghai factory went to customers who were Tesla employees and were handed over in a ceremony at the plant on Monday.

Tesla will ramp up production during January, marking the start of a full-on assault on the world’s largest car market. It has taken less than a year from the start of construction of the $5bn (£3.8bn) Shanghai factory in January to the delivery of the first vehicles.

The factory, first announced in July 2018, is Tesla’s first facility outside the US and will have an annual capacity of 150,000 Model 3 cars per year, compared with 350,000 in its main factory in Fremont, California.

More here:

European stock markets are not following Asia’s rally today.

Instead, the main indices are down on the City’s final full trading day of 2019 (tomorrow is a half-day).

The FTSE 100 is now down 30 points, or 0.4%, in very thin trading. That breaks an 11-day run of daily gains.

Just 90 million trades have taken place across the FTSE 100 so far today, compared to perhaps 800m on a typical day. That suggests many investors have sloped off until the new year, preserving profits after seeing the Footsie jump by 13% this year.

Stocks are suffering because the euro and the pound are both gaining ground against the US dollar, to €1.118 and $1.313 respectively.

Edward Moya of trading firm OANDA reckons investors are expecting that American interest rates will remain on hold for some time (following three rate cuts since the summer).

The dollar seems has seen all its gains wiped away in the final quarter of the year and we could see that trend continue as the global re-acceleration gains momentum.

With the Fed on hold and the rest of the world starting to have a brighter outlook, we could see more central banks look to abandon negative rates. The reasons for further dollar weakness in 2020 are growing, but the main remains that the Fed will be on hold for the foreseeable future and we should see the euro and commodity currencies outperform.

Recession warnings aren’t deterring demonstrators from organising major protests later this week.

Multiple protests are planned for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, which are designed to disrupt festivities and shopping in the City.

Reuters has more details:

Events dubbed “Suck the Eve” and “Shop With You” are set for New Year’s Eve on Tuesday in areas including the party district of Lan Kwai Fong, the picturesque Victoria Harbour, and popular shopping malls, according to notices on social media.

A pro-democracy march on January 1 has been given police permission and will start from a large park in bustling Causeway Bay and end in the central business district.

Organisers Civil Human Rights Front were behind the peaceful million-plus marches in June and held a mass protest earlier in December, which they said around 800,000 people attended.

“On New Year’s Day, we need to show our solidarity ... to resist the government. We hope Hong Kong people will come onto the streets for Hong Kong’s future,” said Jimmy Sham, a leader of the group.

Surprise rise in UK mortgages

The pick-up in UK mortgage approvals in November is a “significant surprise”, says Howard Archer of the EY Item Club.

He suspects that some home owners may have been keen to move before the general election, as a hung parliament could have created more economic uncertainty in 2020.

Archer had also dug into the seasonally-adjusted data, which shows November was a particularly strong month (once you adjust for seasonal factors).

Here’s his take:

  • A significant upward surprise as UK Finance reported mortgage approvals for house purchases spiked to 43,700 [seasonally adjusted] in November, which was the highest level since January 2017. Mortgage approvals had previously fallen back over the previous three months to be at a 7-month low in October

  • November’s jump in mortgage approvals was all the more surprising as the expectation had been that housing market activity would be hampered by heightened political uncertainties. This was certainly indicated by November surveys, notably from the RICS

  • Indeed, the housing market had clearly been pressurized over the previous three months by a potent cocktail of Brexit, economic and domestic political uncertainties. It is also notable that while consumers have benefited from markedly improved earnings growth and rising employment over much of 2019, these fundamentals reached a peak around June/July in terms of employment and earnings growth.

  • It is possible that mortgage approvals were lifted in November by some house buyers looking to move before the General Election amid concerns over a potential change of government

Updated

Japan's Nikkei ends 2019 up 18%

Those gains in Hong Kong and China today have lifted Asian stock markets to their highest levels in 18 months today.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks nudged its highest level since June 2018, as investors push shares higher in thin trading.

Japan’s Nikkei dipped slightly on its final trading session of the year, but still ended 2019 up a sizzling 18%.

Of course, the Nikkei is still way below its all-time highs, hit three decades ago:

Japan's Nikkei

But overall, 2019 has been a very strong year for stock markets. Many indices are up over 20%, lifted by loose monetary policy, easing recession fears, and hopes of a permanent ceasefire in the US-China trade war.

Back in the UK, the number of mortgages approved by banks has jumped, despite Brexit uncertainty and this month’s general election.

Mortgage approvals for home purchases by the main high street banks in November 2019 were 6.8% higher than a year ago, while remortgage approvals were 12.7% higher.

UK Finance, the industry trade body, also reports that credit card spending fell by 3.3% year-on-year last month to £10.9bn.

Andrew Montlake, managing director of UK mortgage broker, Coreco, reckons some households decided to nail down their mortgage before Britons went to the polling stations:

“Home purchase and remortgage approvals in November held up exceptionally well given that the country was in full General Election mode.

“For a lot of British households, November was a classic case of better the devil you know.

“They chose to get their houses in order and secure a mortgage before a potentially disruptive election result.

Despite these recession warnings, Hong Kong’s stock market has closed at a five-month high today.

The Hang Seng index gained 93 points, or 0.33%, to 28,319.

China’s market also had a good day, gaining more than 1%.

Stocks rallied after Beijing announced plans to reform its interest rate system. Commercial banks are being asked to use fresh benchmark rates for new loans, which are more closely aligned to market rates. Analysts think this will lead to lower borrowing costs, stimulating the economy.

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Hong Kong in recent days, as the pro-democracy action enter their seventh month.

These latest demonstrations will have deterred some consumers from hitting the shops, hurting retail spending and helping to keep the economy in recession.

The Financial Times has a piece about how Hong Kong retailers have suffered a bad Christmas period:

It was clear even in November, when protesters set a Christmas tree on fire in the busy Festival Walk mall, that this season was going to be brutal for Hong Kong retailers — the mall will be closed until some time in the first quarter next year, according to its owner Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust.

Since protests first started in April, visitor numbers have collapsed. In October, the most recent month for which data is available, arrivals to Hong Kong were down 43.7 per cent on a year earlier, depriving the city’s businesses of more than 2.5m tourists, the overwhelming majority of them from mainland China.

Overnight visitors spent an average of HK$6,614 (US$850) each on their stays in 2018, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. Along with hotels, restaurants and shop owners were the main beneficiaries, and the fall-off in tourism has battered retailers.

Just in: Hong Kong’s imports and exports have both fallen, as its recession dampens demand for goods and services.

The Census and Statistics Department has reported that imports slumped by 5.8% year-on-year in November, while exports declined by 1.4%.

Hong Kong bankers' bonuses shrivel

Hong Kong’s recession is hitting its financial sector workers hard.

The city’s bankers and stockbrokers are expecting to receive their smallest bonuses and pay rises since the financial crisis.

This is due to the impact of the pro-democracy protests and the knock-on effect of the trade war between the US and China.

The South China Post reports that bonus pots could be the shallowest in 10 years.

“The pay rise and bonus in early 2020 is going to be the worst in a decade,” said Gordon Tsui Luen-on, chairman of the Hong Kong Securities Association.

Many brokerage firms froze salaries and reduced bonuses in early 2009 after the global financial crisis hit the local economy, and the Hang Seng Index plunged. Tsui believes the same will happen in 2020 with some brokerage firms even cutting salaries or laying people off.

Hong Kong’s administration is expected to take fresh measures to support growth in 2020.

Alongside his recession warning, Paul Chan says that his budget, due in February, will include measures for:

“supporting enterprises, safeguarding jobs, revitalising the economy and easing poverty”.

Updated

Hong Kong’s chief secretary, Matthew Cheung, has also warned that the City faces “tough tests and challenges in 2020”.

In his own blogpost, Cheung wrote:

“The year 2019 has been a year of unremitting shocks and turbulence to our community and our economy.

The past six months have been tough for us, but we will soldier on.”

Introduction: Hong Kong recession to deepen

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The final week of the year is a time for taking stock, and looking ahead. But for Hong Kong, that means bracing for a longer downturn.

The city’s finance chief has warned that the economy has contracted in the last quarter of 2019, dragging it even deeper into recession.

Finance Secretary Paul Chan said the protests that have gripped Hong Kong for months – and become increasingly violent – has hurt its economy badly.

In a blog post, Chan warned:

“Based on the situation of these few months, it is inevitable that negative growth will continue.

This means the government will be less flexible in using financial resources under an economic recession.”

Hong Kong officially slumped into recession in the third quarter of this year, with GDP contracting by an alarming 3.2% in July-September. Retail spending has suffered a major contraction, as the sight of demonstrators clashing with riot police has deterred tourists from visiting.

This has had a knock-on impact on companies across the world, from airlines such as Cathay Pacific to Europe’s luxury goods producers.

Visitor arrivals from China fell a record 46% in October to slightly more than 2.5 million, less than half of the record set in January. The most recent data for retail sales in Hong Kong showed a 24.3% plunge, the biggest ever, according to Gulf News.

Chan says this downturn has a serious impact on the government’s finances:

“This will leave the government with its first budget deficit in the past 15 years.

The protests have dropped out of the headlines recently, after the authorities ended a siege at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. But the pro-democracy movement hasn’t gone away; thousands took part in a protest yesterday.

The movement plans to begin the new year with a large demonstration on Wednesday, renewing their demands for an amnesty for arrested protesters, an independent inquiry into alleged police brutality, and complete universal suffrage for the City.

Also coming up today

The economic calendar is pretty bare, beyond some UK mortgage approvals figures and US trade data.

European stock markets are expected to dip a little this morning, with the FTSE 100 dipping by 13 points or 0.2% in early trading.

The agenda

  • 9.30am GMT: UK home loan approvals data for November: expected to dip to 41200, from 41219
  • 1.30pm GMT: US trade balance for November; expected to widen to -$68.8bn, from -$66.5bn

Updated

 

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