Graeme Wearden 

Carlos Ghosn insists he is innocent over fraud charge ‘plot’ – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  


A late markets newsflash. The oil price is sliding, and shares are jumping on Wall Street, after Donald Trump spoke about the Iran crisis.

The US president confirmed that no American troops were killed or injured by the rockets fired from Iran, and that Tehran appears to be ‘standing down’, after retaliating to the death of senior Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.

Our liveblog has full details:

Tokyo’s prosecutors office has hit back.

In a statement, it says:

Defendant Ghosn’s allegations completely ignore his own conduct, and his one-sided criticism of the Japanese criminal justice system is totally unacceptable.

If you missed the press conference, here’s some photos:

Updated

Carlos Ghosn: What we learned...and what we didn't

It was billed as a press conference, but Carlos Ghosn’s long-awaited appearance before the world’s media also felt like a courtroom, with a Powerpoint presentation thrown in too.

But this courtroom, unlike the one he has avoided in Tokyo, gave the defendant free rein to explain why he’s innocent, M’Lud.

Ghosn spent an hour presenting his own case, and then fended off suggestions that his fugitive status implies guilt.

But what did we learn?

1) Ghosn blames a conspiracy between Nissan executives and forces within the Japanese government to bring him down. He named former CEO Hiroto Saikawa, whistleblower Hari Nada and board member Masakazu Toyoda, adding:

My unimaginable ordeal is the result of a handful of unscrupulous, vindictive individuals.

He refused to name which government officials are to blame, beyond appearing to absolve PM Shinzo Abe.

2) Japan’s judicial system is in the spotlight. Ghosn makes a fair point when he criticises the Japanese habit of forcing confessions out of those accused of crimes.

Pouring out his anguish, the former CEO said:

I was brutally taken from my work as I knew it, ripped from my work, my family and my friends.

It is impossible to express the depth of that deprivation and my profound appreciation to be able to be reunited with my family and loved ones.

(I was) interrogated for up eight hours a day without any lawyers present.

‘It will get worse for you if you don’t just confess’, the prosecutor told me repeatedly.

3) Ghosn claims he has proof that he’s innocent. Reporters were shown some documents which -- apparently -- explain away the $11m of dubious expense payments.

He also produced a letter approving the houses bought for the Ghosn family, signed by Saikawa.

Ghosn says he plans to prove his innocence.

I don’t consider myself as a prisoner in Lebanon. I prefer this prison to the one before.

I am ready to stay a long time in Lebanon, but I am going to fight because I have to clear my name.

4) He’s burned his bridges in Japan. Savaging the Tokyo prosecutor is one thing. But citing Pearl Harbor as an example of Japanese cunning and secrecy is to deploy the diplomatic skills of Basil Fawlty.

Ghosn’s point is that he didn’t spot how his one-time allies were plotting to boot him out, to break Renault’s control over Nissan - and scupper a planned merged with Fiat-Crysler. But still, it was a poor analogy that will distract from Ghosn’s claims of innocence.

5) He’s devoted to Mrs Ghosn. I think Ghosn was trying to be chivalrous when he joked that he missed his wife badly when he was trapped in Japan, even if others might not.

As he touchingly put it:

I’ve been in a kind of nightmare for 13 months.

It started when I saw the face of the prosecutor, and it ended when I saw the face of my wife.

This love is not unrequited -- Carole has spoken about how her husband’s return was a “beautiful surprise”. They share something else too -- charges in Japan. In her case, prosecutors claim she committed perjury last year.

6) Lebanon might not be as safe as he hoped. Fleeing to Beirut looked like a cunning plan, as there’s no extradition treaty with Japan. But there is a law banning travel to Israel, which Ghosn has broken in the past.

Beirut’s prosecutor wants to discuss this with Ghosn tomorrow, alongside the Red Notice issued by Interpol for his arrest.

7) Be honest, you were hoping to hear Ghosn confirm whether he was bundled out of Toyko in a big musical box. I certainly was. But on this point, he remained tight-lipped. Perhaps he’s saving it for the film version (although he denies that there’s a deal with Netflix).

Updated

After two and half hours, Carlos Ghosn’s press conference is ending as it began, with the former car chief insisting he is innocent.

If I’d had any hope of a fair trial, I’d never have fled, he says.

He also criticises prosecutors for issuing an arrest warrant for his wife Carole, for allegedly giving false information. Why do that nine months afterwards?

And with that, he’s finished.

Q: Are you the Dreyfus of Lebanon?

Ghosn says he doesn’t understand the reference (to Alfred Dreyfus, the French captain, who was wrongly convicted of passing military secrets to Germany).

Q: It means are you a victim?

Yes I am, says Ghosn firmly. He says that several law professors say they cannot understand why he was arrested, especially as some of the alleged financial misconduct refers to money that wasn’t even paid out.

Ghosn: It's been a 13-month nightmare

Q: What were your emotions during your escape?

Ghosn says he was numb, from the start of the drama until he met his wife Carole in her parents’ home in the Lebanon.

I’ve been in a kind of nightmare for 13 months.

It started when I saw the face of the prosecutor, and it ended when I saw the face of my wife.

Q: Would you recommend a packing case as a mode of travel?

Ghosn breaks into a grin, but won’t confirm that rumour that he was smuggled out of Japan in a large box.

Q: Can the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance succeed without you?

Yes, says Ghosn modestly - but it needs to follow some rules.

Ghosn says he is ready to answer questions from the French authorities, who last year launched an inquiry into his wealth.

Incidentally, the much-pined-after Carole Ghosn is attending today’s press conference, supporting her man.

Ghosn: I missed my wife (even if you wouldn't)

Associated Press asks Ghosn what triggered his decision to escape Japan.

Ghosn says there were two factors. First, the Tokyo prosecutor kept postponing his trial, saying it wouldn’t begin until 2021.

Second, he missed his wife Carole, telling reporters that:

For many people, it wouldn’t be a punishment not to see their wife. But for me it was.

How sweet. And yet, how rude!

Updated

Channel Four asks Ghosn about the damage to his reputation:

Q: Won’t people say that ‘if a man escapes from a trial in a box there’s no smoke without fire’?

Ghosn won’t be lured into confirming the details of his escape. He says many lies have been told about him, and repeats that he wants a fair trial over the claims of financial misconduct.

Updated

Ghosn has reiterated that he had talked to Fiat-Chrysler about a possible merger with Renault, but the deal floundered after his arrest (allowing Peugeot to swoop in instead).

Curiously, Ghosn denies that he resigned from Renault, saying such reports are a “travesty”.

That’s odd, as France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire announced a year ago that Ghosn had quit as Renault’s chairman and CEO.

Renault also announced that he had resigned both roles, but remained as a director.

Updated

We’ve embedded a video stream of Carlos Ghosn’s press conference at the top of this liveblog - you might need to refresh to see it.

Ghosn is now defending a recent visit to Israel - saying he travelled there as a Renault executive.

This visit has caused some anger in Ghosn’s new home, as it is a crime for Lebanese citizens to visit Israel due to the long-running conflict between the two countries.

The BBC’s Simon Jack says Tokyo is going to respond to Ghosn’s claims of a government conspiracy against him.

A Japanese journalist reminds Ghosn that he has broken the law by fleeing to Lebanon.

Ghosn defends his decision to escape, claiming Japan’s prosecutor repeatedly broke the law by leaking details of the case against him

Breaking the law in Japan because I got out of Japan is a problem, but isn’t it a bigger problem that the prosecutor broke 10 laws?

The Japanese people deserve better than a “rigged” justice system, Ghosn says, adding that he has been treated like a “terrorist”.

Reuters: Have Lebanon promised that you won’t be extradited back to Japan?

Ghosn says he doesn’t have such a pledge, but adds:

“I am confident that the existing practices and laws in Lebanon will be respected.

That’s a reminder that there isn’t currently an extradition treaty between the two countries.

Ghosn: I'm ready for a fair trial

The BBC’s John Simpson asks Ghosn about his claim of a conspiracy between Nissan and the Japanese government -- how high does it go?

Ghosn says he doesn’t think the top of Japan’s government was involved -- absolving prime minister Shinzo Abe of blame*.

He also says he would face the fraud charges outside Japan, if he felt he would get justice

I am ready to stand trial anywhere that will give me a fair trial.

* - Bloomberg reported today that Ghosn came within a couple of hours of running into Abe in a Japanese hotel, when he began his escape.

Did you every propose a full-blown merger between Renault and Nissan?

Ghosn denies it, saying he simply proposed a holding company -- but since his arrest, the alliance has gone backwards.

Ghosn says his lawyers believe they can fight the Interpol Red Notice.

CNN: Haven’t you just swapped a small cell in Japan for a large one in Lebanon?

Ghosn says he isn’t unhappy in Lebanon, but he is going to fight.

I have to clear my name, and this is very important to me.

The Wall Street Journal asks Ghosn what he plans to do, now he’s a fugitive from justice.

I am “used to Mission Impossible”, he replies, citing his long career in the auto industry.

I don’t consider that I cannot do anything.

I can do a lot, and I am going to clear my name.

Ghosn is taking questions from reporters from different countries.

I was hoping for a bit more help from the Brazilian government, but this did not happen unfortunately, he says.

And on France, he argues that the Paris government wants to improve its relations with Japan, so isn’t taking any steps to defy it.

Updated

Ghosn is asked whether he has any political ambitions in Lebanon.

He replies that he’s willing to use his expertise to help the country (who he spoke warmly about earlier). However he’s not planning to move into politics.

Updated

Ghosn denies that he’s signed a deal with Netflix to create a TV drama about his escape.

Carlos Ghosn is back to answer some questions from the media.

But he repeats his refusal to reveal how he escaped Japan, as it will “expose several people” who helped him, and could lead to problems for them.

Updated

BREAKING! While Ghosn was delivering his monologue, Lebanon’s top state prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat announced he is calling him for questioning tomorrow.

Oueidat wants to quiz Ghosn over the Red Notice issued by Interpol for his arrest, following his decision to flee Japan.

Updated

Ghosn is now outlining why it’s terribly unfair to claim he is a cold, greedy dictator.

He insists he was committed to Japan, saying he was the first foreign business leader to return to the country after the 2011 tsunami. He says he was the first to dare to go to Nissan’s plant near the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Japan is repaying me with evil for all the good I have done to the country. I don’t understand that.

On the greed charge, Ghosn claims he turned down an offer to run General Motors on double his salary.

And he insists he’s not a dictator, citing his long period of success turning Nissan around.

And with that, we’re taking a break! Ghosn is mopping his face with a handkerchief, and the media are looking hungry to ask some questions.

After presenting his case for an hour, Ghosn is proposing to hold a break before taking questions from reporters.

But not before he’s defended himself some more.

He insists that the case against him is political.

I am innocent of all the charges, all of them.

And I can prove that now, as I have the documents, and there are more to come.

Ever the businessman, Ghosn is now railing against Nissan for botching his plan to merge with rival Fiat-Chrysler.

Bringing the Italian-US carmaker into the Nissan-Renault alliance would have been a success, he says.

But this deal died when Ghosn was arrested -- Fiat-Chrysler is merging with Peugeot owner, Groupe PSA, instead.

Ghosn berates his former company:

“How can you lose that? How can you lose a huge opportunity to become the dominant player in this industry?”

Updated

Ghosn also denies another key part of the case against him, that he illicitly used Nissan’s money to buy houses around the world.

He produces a letter approving these payments, signed by former CEO Hiroto Saikawa (who Ghosn claims is a key conspirator against him).

Dozens of journalists were gathered outside Beirut’s press syndicate building for Ghosn’s press conference, including many who had flown in especially from Japan.

They stood in the rain guarded by heavily armed Lebanese police officers, descending on each car that pulled up the building. The arrival of two black Toyota Land Cruisers around 3pm caused a flurry - until what appeared to be a group of private security officers emerged. Ghosn had appeared to use the temporary rush to enter the building unseen through a side entrance, and appeared in the conference room a few moments later.

Ghosn now turns to the notorious party which he and wife Carole hosted at France’s Palace of Versailles to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance.

We didn’t want to act like Louis XIV and Marie Antoinette, he insists. We chose Versailles because it is a symbol of France’s genius, and its openness to the world.

That party cost €635,000, but Ghosn denies there was anything suspicious - even though some friends from Lebanon and the US also attended.

Forty five minutes into his opening statement, Ghosn is now arguing that Nissan and Renault investors are also victims of the conspiracy against him.

He says they are the only major carmakers whose shares have fallen since his arrest, with €20m per day wiped off Renault’s value.

That’s a heavy price, compared to the $11m of allegedly dubious expenses, Ghosn says.

[Perhaps, but I don’t think fraud cases should really balanced against the impact on market capitalisation]

Carlos Ghosn is now denying that there was anything irregular in the “CEO reserve” payments at the heart of the fraud charges against him.

Pointing to a financial statement, he insists that he couldn’t use these funds for illicit purposes.

Last year, Reuters revealed how Ghosn and close associates spent money from a fund that some insiders dubbed ‘the CEO Reserve’ to help pay for residences used by the Ghosn family as well as for other personal expenses.

Updated

Ghosn now produces another plank of his defence -- even if one was guilty of such financial misconduct charges, no other country would punish them so harshly as Japan.

Not that he is admitting any guilt, of course.

Carlos Ghosn is now defending his decision to flee Japan, claiming he was effectively a hostage.

He says he was told he faced a five year wait before a judgement would be made on his fraud charges - giving him a choice between dying in Japan or escaping.

He’s also furious about the way he was portrayed.

Nissan was “in the dirt” before my arrival, Ghosn says, and now he am described as “a cold, greedy dictator”.

Carlos Ghosn has now been speaking without interruption for 30 minutes -- speaking passionately about his (claimed) innocence, and slamming Japan’s legal system.

He’s now claiming that the whole arrest was staged, and that there is collusion between Nissan and the prosecutor -- who is effectively the judge, he blasts.

Ghosn is now explaining how he was arrested last year.

He slams the “bullshit” claim that he was arrested on a plane, insisting that he was apprehended going through airport security.

Ghosn: Plot was like Pearl Harbor

In a highly provocative, and distasteful move, Ghosn is comparing this alleged plot to remove him to the Pearl Harbor attacks!

He says his friends have asked how he didn’t notice he was being set up -- and he reminds them how the Japanese air force caught the Americans by surprise in 1941.

That is going to cause fury in Japan, we suspect.

Ghosn also claims that Japanese government officials were involved in this plot to get rid of him.

But, pressing his hands together in prayer, Ghosn says he is “imposing silence” on himself on this issue, as he doesn’t want to hurt the Lebanese people or their government.....

After that vigorous defence, Ghosn is getting down to details, and outlining his theory for why he ended up being arrested on fraud charges.

Ghosn says the plot against him was triggered by Nissan’s declining performance at the start of 2017. He blames Hiroto Saikawa, the former CEO, for this.

He explains that there was big bitterness in Japan about the links between Nissan and Renault, which gave the French carmaker some influence over Nissan.

Unfortunately there was no trust in the partnership, Ghosn continues.

Some Nissan insiders concluded that the only way to get rid of Renault’s influence on Nissan is to get rid of me, and they were right, he adds.

So who cooked up this plot?

Ghosn says Saikawa was obviously part of it, along with whistleblower Hari Nada. He also names Masakazu Toyoda, Nissan director, as a key link.

Ghosn: the charges are baseless

Ghosn blames “unscrupulous, vindictive individuals” at Nissan and its legal firm Latham and Watkins for launching the legal charges against him.

I am not above the law, he insists -- but had no choice but to escape Japan because its legal system and its 99% conviction rate.

Choosing to escape was the most difficult decision of my life, he continues.

But as the charges against him are “baseless” he had “no other choice” but to protect himself and his family.

Carlos Ghosn turns to Greg Kelly, his former aide who was also arrested last year -- and remains in custody.

Ghosn says that Kelly has been persecuted because he refused to sign up to a plea bargaining deal, alongside Hari Nada- a senior vice-president at Nissan who blew the whistle on Ghosn.

Kelly is a “victim of the system” and an honourable man, “with no release date in sight”, Ghosn says, asking the media to remember him.

Ghosn: I won't reveal escape plan

Carlos Ghosn says he won’t reveal how he escaped from Japan -- and you can feel the wave of disappointment rippling through the press conference.

Instead, he is going to outline how he is innocent, and how the charges should never have been brought.

He thanks his family, his wife Carole (cue some applause), his friends and his lawyers.

And he takes another swipe at Japan, saying baseless media attacks had been orchestrated by Japanese authorities.

Carlos Ghosn says his imprisonment went against United Nations standards.

Ghosn is laying into the Japanese criminal justice system, saying he was interrogated for up to eight hours a day without a lawyer present, and without knowing what evidence was held against him.

It is impossible to express the depths of my deprivation, he declares.

Ghosn claims investigators threatened him, saying things would get even worse if he didn’t confess. He had no contact with his family, apart from through letters.

The feeling of hopelessness was profound, he adds, hitting out at prosecutors for re-arresting him after he was released on bail the first time last year.

Ghosn: I was brutally taken away from my world

Carlos Ghosn begins by welcoming the press to today’s event.

As you can imagine, today is a very important day for me, he says.

Ghoshn says he has looked forward to it for 400 days, since he was taken into custody in Japan and “brutally” taken away from his family, his friends and his company.

Updated

Ghosn is being introduced now - here’s a live feed.

And here’s the scene inside:

Here’s the scene outside the press conference a few minute ago:

Carlos Ghosn has arrived for today’s press conference. He’s looking suitably serious, dressed smartly in a suit, white shirt and a pinky salmon-coloured tie.

There’s a flurry of camera flashes from the assembled press (who have now navigated the tight security outside).

The Financial Times has drawn up a list of questions for Ghosn to answer today.

They include:

  1. Why did you defer part of your salary (a key part of the case against him in Japan)
  2. Who else should have been arrested?
  3. You say that your enemies wanted to block a Renault-Nissan merger, but why couldn’t you persuade them the deal made sense?
  4. Have you evidence to back up your claim that a Japanese government official agreed to help Nissan to bring you down?

More here.

Some background: Carlos Ghosn faced four charges in Japan, and was held in custody for more than three months before securing bail.

Two of those charges were for allegedly understanding Ghosn’s by more than $80m for the best pat of a decade. He was also accused of transferring $14.7m from a Nissan account to a friend’s company, and another $5m to companies controlled by his family.

You can get up to speed on the world’s most famous corporate fugitive here:

Ghosn’s wife, Carole, is clearly delighted to have her husband back in the country.

The Lebanese-born fashion designer has given an interview to the Le Parisien magazine, in which she explains how Carlos’s dramatic bunk from Tokyo to Beirut before the new year was a lovely surprise.

She said:

“I didn’t know about anything. I was in Beirut with my children to celebrate Christmas. Someone called me, saying: ‘I’ve got a surprise for you.’

“It was the most beautiful surprise of my life. We met at my parents’ apartment. I held Carlos very tightly in my arms for at least five whole minutes before I could even speak.”

Mrs Ghosn is also caught up in the legal battle. Yesterday, Japanese prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant for her, claiming she had given false testimony last year.

More here:

Journalists are also being scanned by security staff before they’re allowed into today’s press conference.

Ironic really, as Carlos Ghosn appears to have evaded such security measures during his dramatic escape.

There’s huge interest in Carlos Ghosn’s appearance.

Scores of journalists have flocked to the Lebanese Journalists Syndicate building to hear from the former Nissan chief -- and there are even armed police outside.

Carlos Ghosn to hold press conference

Over in Beirut, Carlos Ghosn is preparing to appear for the first time since he fled Tokyo.

The former boss of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance is hosting a press conference, where he’s likely to insist he is innocent of the financial misconduct charges filed in Japan.

It’s scheduled to begin at 3pm local time, or 1pm GMT (in around 50 minutes).

Ghosn’s dramatic escape by private jet (apparently in an audio equipment case), captured headlines around the world last week. He’s now likely to blast Japan’s justice system, and could also criticise colleagues who - he claims - set him up.

My colleague Justin McCurry sets the scene:

At a highly anticipated press conference due to be held in Beirut on Wednesday afternoon, speculation is growing that he will divulge details of his escape and flesh out claims that he was the victim of a “coup” by former colleagues determined to wreck his plans to merge Nissan and Renault.

Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business said Ghosn had told her over the weekend that he has “actual evidence” and documents proving there was a plot to “take him out” in response to his plan to merge the Japanese and French automakers.

There is also the mouthwatering prospect that Ghosn, who consistently denied the charges throughout his detention and while out on bail, will name Japanese government officials he claims worked with Nissan executives to oust him, two decades after he rescued the company from near bankruptcy. The former auto tycoon has yet to publicly back those allegations with evidence.

Shares in holiday firm TUI are falling deeper into the red, down 4.5% today, making it one of the top fallers.

Rising tensions in the Middle East could hit demand for holidays to the region, even if both sides avoid further escalation.

A number of airlines have said they are suspending flights over Iraqi and Iranian airspace, or cancelled flights, including Air France, KLM, Qantas, Lufthansa and Emirates.

That’s a blow to the local economies.

Agathe Demarais of the Economist Intelligence Unit argues that Iran is trying to avoid escalating the situation, while also showing that it has retaliated to the killing of Qassem Suleimani:

Another sign that calm appears to be returning to markets:

Just in: Boeing says it is “ready to assist” over the Ukranian International Airlines 737-800 plane which crashed shortly after leaving Tehran’s Imam Khomeini airport today.

In a statement, the US firm says:

“This is a tragic event and our heartfelt thoughts are with the crew, passengers, and their families.

We are in contact with our airline customer and stand by them in this difficult time.

We are ready to assist in any way needed.”

Boeing’s 737-800 is the most widely-used aeroplane in service today. It is the forerunner to the 737-MAX, which is currently grounded following two fatal crashes.

Boeing shares are down 2% in pre-market trading.

My colleague Michael Safi tweets:

Markets shake off some Iran fears

The markets are recovering some of their earlier losses.

Gold has dropped back to $1,582 per ounce, compared with $1,610 after the Iranian attacks. It’s still higher than yesterday, but only around $10.

Brent crude has eased back to $68.64 per barrel, down from $71.75. That’s still 0.5% up today.

European markets are pulling back too, now down only 0.2% on average. That puts the FTSE 100 down 15 points at 7,558.

There are also signs that Wall Street will open calmly.

Why the turnaround?

Traders are relieved that Iraq’s prime minister’s office says it has not heard of any Iraqi casualties yet -- there also don’t appear to be any casualties on the US forces side.

Wall Street has also noted Iraq’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who says

We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.

Marios Hadjikyriacos of trading firm XM sums up the mood at present:

Investors seem to have sided with the view that while this is clearly a worrisome situation, it doesn’t end with an actual war.

The concern was that Iran would strike back against US personnel, leaving Trump no choice but to hit back again, generating a vicious tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation. With no US casualties to speak of though, and with Tehran having replied in a strong enough fashion to save face domestically, the risk of the situation escalating out of control appears fairly low.

In an interesting twist, Iraq has now confirmed that it was warned by Iran that last night’s missile attacks were taking place.

That could reassure the markets that Iran isn’t trying to escalate the situation, but still felt forced to make a public retaliation.

Updated

Corrections corner: Gold hit $1,600 per OUNCE this morning, not per barrel as I foolishly mistyped earlier.

Thanks to kind readers who flagged up (and let’s pretend they were very small barrels....)

Finablr’s share price is also being dragged down by the news that two investors are trying to sell stock.

Saeed Mohamed al-Qebaisi and Khalifa Butti al-Muhairi hope to sell $75m of Finablr stock, and another $490m in FTSE 100-listed NMC Health -- whose stock is down 15% today.

This comes after NMC was attacked by US short-seller Muddy Waters, which claimed last month that its financial statements are bogus. NMC’s shares have halved in value since.

The Times reckons al-Qebaisi and al-Muhairi may need to sell shares to meet a margin call on shares pledged as collateral for debts....

Finablr shares plunge after ransomware attack

Back in the City, shares in financial services group Finablr have plunged by a sixth after its Travelex subsidiary was struck by a major cyber attack.

The Abu Dhabi-based firm has tumbled to the bottom of the FTSE 250 index, with hackers reportedly demanding a $3m ransom before they unlock its computer systems.

Travelex, which also provides foreign currency services for Virgin Money and Tesco, was attacked by the Sodinokibi ransomware more than a week ago.

Finablr told shareholders this morning that “some data” has been encrypted by Sodinokibi - which locks down data until the victim pays up.

It added:

Travelex is gradually restoring a number of internal systems and is working to resume normal operations as quickly as possible.

Finablr’s other six brands are not affected and are operating normally. Finablr does not currently anticipate any material financial impact for the Group, continues to monitor the situation closely and will update the market as required.

In the meantime, investors have sent shares down 17% to 127.8p, the lowest since it floated last May.

Bad News: Germany’s factories are continuing to struggle badly.

Factory orders across the eurozone’s largest economy slumped by 1.3% month-on-month in November, meaning they were 6.5% lower than a year ago.

This is rather weaker than expecting, showing that German manufacturing stumbled through much of 2019. It suggests growth was weak in the final quarter of last year.

Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, says the “hard reality” is that Germany’s economy is struggling.

All in all, there are still no signs at all of a bottoming out for German industry. Instead, the free fall continues. In fact, there is simply one word to describe the current state of the German industry: ‘dire’.

Good News: Staff at UK bakery chain Greggs are sharing a £7m special payment, partly thanks to the success of its vegan sausage roll.

It works out at around £300 for the group’s longer-serving staff - a handy bonus to start the new year with.

My colleague Sarah Butler explains:

The bakery chain’s 25,000 employees will receive up to £300 each in their pay packets this month – with shop floor staff and managers receiving the same amount. Greggs said it was making the one-off payment to workers “in recognition of their crucial contribution to business success”.

Some 19,000 staff, who have been with the company before and up to March last year, will receive the full £300 payment. The rest will be given £75 for every quarter they have been with the company, up to last March.

Volatility up, a bit

Market volatility has risen today, but remains at moderate levels despite the risk of conflict in the Gulf region.

That suggests that investors are worried, but not yet in a major panic.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, isn’t ditching his shares yet, saying:

“While tensions between the US and Iran are likely to continue, our base case does not assume significant and serious escalation as both sides do not have an interest to pursue a broader military conflict.

Hence, we maintain our overweight positions on global and US equities.”

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has declared that Tehran has given America a “slap in the face”, and call for its troops to leave the Middle East.

In a live TV speech, Khamenei said:

“Last night, a slap in the face was delivered...

“An important incident has happened. The question of revenge is another issue.

Joanne Stocker of Defense Post suggests that Iran may be signalling that its retaliation is over, at least officially....

Here’s our latest news story on the oil price spike:

European markets open lower

European stock markets have, as feared, opened lower - but it’s not a rout.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is down 42 points, or 0.5%. Holiday and airline stocks are among the fallers, with TUI losing 2.7% and IAG (owner of British Airways) losing 1.6%.

Across Europe, Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB have both lost 0.6%.

Theres’s some relief that the US authorities haven’t reported any casualties from the attacks on its bases.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank says there’s a “glimmer of hope” that the crisis may not escalate further:

In the past President Trump has shown restraint in previous attacks in the region blamed on Iran which didn’t kill any US citizens. This gives a glimmer of hope that this might not lead to an all-out escalation in the conflict.

There are already some commentators saying that if the US doesn’t ratchet up tensions further this could be good news for risk as it might be spun by Iran as a big response and the world can move on for now.

Every major Asia-Pacific stock market has dropped today:

Gold will keep rising if Middle East tensions continue to build, predicts Stephen Innes of AxiTrader.

But the flip-side is that bullion could tumble back from today’s seven-year high if calmer heads prevail.

Innes says:

Escalating geopolitical risk has lifted Gold to $1,600, and a further escalation is likely to attract more safe-haven flows. Still, with the near-term position builds hovering around 12-month highs, it increases the risks of a large-scale meltdown if tensions suddenly ease.

While Gold’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks appears higher than any other defensive assets at the moment, it’s worth noting that surges in geopolitical risk can, by their nature, be short-lived and volatile. Still, it’s tough not to get encapsulated by the heat of the moment when it comes to the fog of war.

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Geopolitical anxiety has pushed Bitcoin to its highest level since November.

The cryptocurrency has jumped to $8,463 today, a two-month high, and is now up 20% since Qassem Suleimani’s death last week.

Charts: Markets respond to Iran missile attack

The gold price was swift to respond to Tehran’s missile attack at two US basis in Iraq.

It spiked to $1,610 per ounce, from $1.575, once the retaliation was announced, a near seven-year high.

Oil also spiked alarmingly when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the move.

Brent crude immediately bounced back over the $70 mark -- levels last seen when Saudi Arabia’s oil processing sites were attacked in September.

Equities suffered as investors tried to protect themselves from risk -- as this chart of Japan’s Topix index shows:

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Introduction: Iran crisis rattles markets; Ghosn press conference upcoming

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Investors are dashing for cover today as tensions in the Middle East escalate - rattling markets and sending asset prices swinging wildly.

Gold hit a seven-year high, and oil spiked back over $70 per barrel, after Iran launched a missile attack on two US military bases in Iraq.

The attack, which began at 1.30am local time on Wednesday, is Tehran’s first retaliation to the death of general Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack last week.

More than a dozen missiles were fired, which Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, described as “proportionate measures in self-defence”. No casualties have been reported yet, but the situation is still unclear.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared:

“The brave soldiers of IRGC’s aerospace unit have launched a successful attack with tens of ballistic missiles on the al-Asad military base in the name of martyr General Qassem Suleimani.”

Although Donald Trump swiftly tweeted that “all is well”, the markets fear further escalation between the two sides. The sad news that a Ukranian passenger jet had crashed leaving Tehran Airport will also weigh on the aviation sector, although it doesn’t appear linked to the Iranian missile attack.

Investors dashed for save-haven assets, driving gold over $1,600 per ounce for the first time since 2013.

Fears of oil supply disruption from the Gulf region sent Brent crude spiking up to $71.75, a new four-month high, although prices have subsided a little since.

Asia-Pacific equity markets are also spooked, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.5% and China’s CSI 300 shedding 1.2%. European markets are set to fall, with Germany’s DAX seen down 1%.

Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group, says the crisis is worrying investors as they can’t predict the next moves - how will Trump respond to Iran’s retaliation?

“Geopolitical tensions are certainly heightening, and this always creates uncertainty – something which markets typically loathe as it becomes more difficult to know where things are headed. In other words, they can’t price uncertainty.

“In many regards, the U.S.-Iran situation has now surpassed the U.S.-China trade war as the biggest risk to financial markets. This has been reflected in the current volatility.”

But Green also advises against panic selling - he recommends staying diversified, and holding your nerve....

Also coming up today

A week after dramatically escaping from Japan, Carlos Ghosn is due to hold a press conference in Lebanon. The former auto magnate is expected to argue that he was the victim of a conspiracy by senior managers at Nissan, who set him up with fraud charges to prevent a merger with Renault.

Ghosn may also reveal exactly how he managed to flee from Tokyo without being detected. The latest theory is that he enlisted a group of top private security operatives, was concealed a large box and smuggled onto a private jet bound for Istanbul, and then Beirut where he should be safe from extradition back to Japan.

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: German factory orders for November
  • 1pm GMT: Carlos Ghosn press conference in Beirut

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