Graeme Wearden 

IMF slashes growth forecasts and offers $50bn coronavirus help – as it happened

The IMF has torn up its growth forecasts as the Covid-19 outbreak hits the world economy, as the Bank of England’s next governor faces MPs
  
  

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building in Washington.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building in Washington. Photograph: Yuri Gripas/Reuters

IMF offering $50bn funding

One more thing.... the IMF has also announced it will offer up to $50bn in emerging financing for countries stricken by the coronavirus outbreak.

The proposal could sugar today’s bitter news that economic growth forecast this year will fall below 2019’s 2.9% due to the virus.

In a statement, the Fund says:

The IMF is making available about $50 billion through its rapid-disbursing emergeincy financing facilities for low income and emerging market countries that could potentially seek support.

Of this, $10 billion is available at zero interest for the poorest members through the Rapid Credit Facility.

Updated

Afternoon summary

Time for a quick recap

Concern is growing over the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, as more cases are recorded outside China - including in the UK.

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its growth forecasts, warning the global economy won’t match the measly 2.9% expansion achieved in 2019.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that Fund was looking at “more dire” scenarios, after the coronavirus spread further beyond China - with rising infections across the globe. This also prompted the World Bank to launch a new $12bn loan package overnight.

The IMF is pushing for coordinated action from governments and central banks....and Canada has responded, by cutting borrowing costs by 50 basis points, more than expected.

The BoC warned that Covid-19 is a threat to many economies, with a knock-on effect on Canada.

But economists believe that rate cuts alone won’t help -- the economy needs government spending, and more targeted assistance to stop good companies being dragged down.

EU finance ministers have been warned that Italy and France could be dragged into recession, Bloomberg reports. That may bolster French finance minister Bruno Le Maire’s calls for a fiscal response.

China’s economy continues to bear the brunt of the crisis, with car sales slumping by 80% year-on-year in February. Its services firm suffered its worst slump on record.

But eurozone and UK services sector firms are also suffering - new surveys show a drop in business confidence and overseas orders.

Tesco, the UK’s largest supermarket chain, has told its staff to prepare to work from home. James Bond fans have been told to wait until November for the next film - postponed from April.

Andrew Bailey, the incoming Bank of England governor has called for government support for small firms struggling with Covid-19.

He also revealed he will examine whether the central bank should move some staff out of London, as he faced criticism of his time running Britain’s financial watchdog.

Global stock markets are rallying today, lifted by hopes of stimulus to fight the global downturn -- and welcoming Joe Biden’s success in the Super Tuesday primaries.

That may be all for today....GW

Just in: The coronavirus has forced the next James Bond film to be delayed until November.

No Time To Die was scheduled for April. However, fans had already lobbied for a postponement, saying it wasn’t the right time to see Daniel Craig’s last outing as 007.

The producers now agree:

Updated

Tesco tells staff to prepare for home working

Tesco has told more than 5,000 office-based staff to prepare to work from home, in the latest sign of Britain’s biggest companies bracing for the coronavirus outbreak to worsen.

Staff at its Welwyn Garden City headquarters and other offices were told on Wednesday to take everything they needed to work from home with them, such as laptops and work mobile phones, sources said.

The move has been taken as a precaution in case the government changes its guidance for businesses. Public Health England’s advice remains for businesses to carry out normal operations, although people who have travelled from affected areas such as China’s Hubei province are advised to self-isolate for 14 days.

Tesco and other retailers regularly carry out exercises to prepare for flu pandemics, including cutting product choice and moving to a “feed-the-nation” footing.

Tesco declined to comment.

Back in Westminster, Andrew Bailey is fairly scathing about Facebook’s Libra digital currency project, telling MPs:

“It’s been handled pretty poorly.”

Libra’s launch got a “pretty poor reception” and was “very vague” about how it works, the governor-to-be says.

“It was frankly not a very well done and very well developed initiative.

“I remain pretty suspicious.”

All the main European stock markets closed higher tonight, despite the IMF’s gloomy warnings that the coronavirus is hurting global growth.

The EU-wide Stoxx 600 index ended 1.2% higher, with gains in London, Paris, Frankfurt and Milan.

Investors seem to be banking on fresh monetary and fiscal stimulus measures -- not dampened by Canada’s rate cut a couple of hours ago.

But they’re also taking their cue from Wall Street, where stocks have jumped 2%.

New York investors seem convinced that Joe Biden will become the Democrat’s candidate to take on Donald Trump, following his Super Tuesday triumph.

Healthcare stocks, including insurers and pharmaceutical companies, are leading the rally. Bernie Sanders’ dream of Medicare For All would have hit their profits (while also giving Americans much-needed health protection).

Britain’s FTSE 100 index has continued its recovery, and just closed 97 points higher at 6815 points (up 1.45%).

That’s above last Thursday’s close (6796 points), meaning we’ve shaken off Friday’s slump.

But, as you can see, the index is still sharply lower than in mid-February.

Andrew Bailey has hinted the Bank of England is not close to an emergency rate cut amid the coronavirus outbreak, telling MPs:

“What we need is frankly more evidence than we have at the moment as to how this is feeding through”

He says there is nothing to stop the Bank acting before the next MPC, but that it’s still “working hard” to assess the potential economic fallout as the virus spreads.

“We are still looking at the evidence and the precise sort of balance of what the shock is likely to be”.

That might dampen some of the speculation that the BoE follows the US Federal Reserve with an unscheduled cut (UK rates are currently 0.75%)

Bloomberg: France and Italy face coronavirus recessions, ministers warned

Bloomberg is reporting that EU finance ministers have been warned to expect recessions in Italy and France, if the coronavirus outbreak worsens.

They say:

The coronavirus outbreak threatens to plunge both France and Italy into recession, and the ripples from a prolonged outbreak could incite a “vicious” spiral of declining markets, European finance ministers have been warned.

“A longer and more widespread epidemic could have a disproportionate negative impact through uncertainty and financial-market channels,” according to a European Commission briefing note on the economic impact, seen by Bloomberg.

“Cascading effects could stem from liquidity shortages in firms that have to stop production, amplified and spread out by financial markets.”’

As France and Italy both shrank in the last quarter of 2019, they’re already on the brink of recession. Another contraction this month will shove them over the line.

Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market has announced “emergency trading protocols” that it can wheel out if the coronavirus situation escalates.

Lloyd’s 1,000 staff, along with thousands of brokers and underwriters, would be asked to work from home and to resort to electronic trading.

More details here.

Updated

Next BoE governor: Should we be in London?

Asked about the government’s levelling-up agenda, Andrew Bailey drops a hint that the Bank could move some staff out of London!

Saying that there are good reasons why the central bank is based in the capital, he admits:

The time has now come to say ‘what’s the right distribution of the Bank of England?’.

The Bank does have regional agents across the country, of course, as well as its staff in Threadneedle Street, at Bank.

Updated

Andrew Bailey then tells MPs that as governor of the Bank of England he wouldn’t hold back from telling the government that a free trade deal with the EU is vital.

“My strong view is we should do all we can to get a free trade agreement with the EU and not fall back on the WTO.

On the climate emergency, he pledges to maintain the momentum created by Mark Carney.

“You should be assured that none of the momentum behind this is going to decline”

He also warns the financial markets are not pricing in the risks of global heating.

Labour MP Rushanara Ali is now tearing strips out of Andrew Bailey at the Treasury committee, saying:

“To what extent do you take personal responsibility for not being feared by these people [bankers and finance industry execs]. And they quite frankly took the biscuit?”

Bailey points to the FCA’s crackdown on high-cost credit, which he says has saved the poorest in society about £1.5bn a year, and put several payday lenders out of business.

“The way they were treating constituents across the country was unacceptable”.

MPs challenge Andrew Bailey over FCA.

Back in parliament, Andrew Bailey is being pummelled by MPs over his running of the Financial Conduct Authority.

Asked on the FCA’s, um, shameful toilet hygiene, Bailey says the leaked staff memo showed the FCA needs to lead by example. After the inevitable stinking headlines, “other organisations” got in touch to say they had the same problems.... (Good grief - Ed).

The next BoE governor is also challenged about the FCA’s inquiry into GRG -- Royal Bank of Scotland’s ‘turnaround division’ that drove some companies to the wall.

On GRG... Bailey is robust, saying that the FCA could not have released its RBS report into the scandal at its global restructuring group (GRG) or it would break the law.

“It was a difficult moment. [But] I’m afraid to say as a public body we can’t break the law. We had to stand our ground at that point and I would have to again. We can’t as a public regulator break the law.”

Generally, Bailey says his time at the FCA was tough

“It’s hellishly tough at times. But that’s the nature of it. I don’t regret it [taking the job] for a moment.”

The Bank of Canada justifies its rate cut by pointing to the damage caused to the global economy by the spread of coronavirus:

Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing...

However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated.

Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.

Bank of Canada slashes rates

NEWSFLASH: The Bank of Canada has aggressively slashed interest rates, in an attempt to protect its economy from the impact of coronavirus.

The BoC has cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, from 1.75% to 1.25%, at its scheduled meeting today.

That’s a bigger cut than expected -- just a day after the US Federal Reserve surprised markets with a 50bp cut of its own.

Canada’s central bank says:

“While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding,”

Updated

Next Bank of England governor: UK firms need help to handle Covid-19 crisis

The incoming governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has called on the government to launch emergency financial support to aid smaller firms through the worst of the coronavirus outbreak.

Speaking to MPs on the Treasury committee before he is formally due to start at the Bank on 16 March, he says:

“It’s quite reasonable to expect that we are collectively going to have to provide some form of supply chain finance in the not too distant future now.”

Suggesting that the support be coordinated between the Bank and the Treasury, Bailey adds the help would be required to “ensure the effects of this shock from the virus are not too damaging to many forms of activity - and particularly to small and medium sized firms.”

“We’re going to have to do that very quickly.”

Bailey says he has spoken to the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, about the need for a coordinated response between the Bank and the Treasury.

“It’s quite clear in a situation like this that we must act in a coordinated fashion.”

Asked by the Treasury committee chair Mel Stride if he is the right man for the job of governor during a time of crisis - given his reputation as slow but steady “safe pair of hands” - Bailey says he was anything but slow-moving during the 2008 financial crisis.

Stride rather cheekily says there is a rumour that certain figures in No10 would rather someone else was in Bailey’s chair today.

“I think I can say that I’ve had a strong history of doing things very quickly and having to change course very quickly,” adds Bailey (who was appointed by Sunak’s predecessor, Sajid Javid).

The IMF had previously expected China’s economy would grow by 5.6% this year -- which is now Not Going To Happen.

Last year China grew by 6.1%, which was the weakest in three decades.

On China, the IMF says that its previous growth forecasts are “no longer valid”.

Covid-19 will have a more significant impact on the Chinese economy than previously thought, MD Georgiava warns.

But, she also expresses optimism that Chinese production levels keep rising as factories reopen.

Updated

David Malpass, head of the World Bank, is appearing alongside Kristalina Georgieva.

He warns that the coronavirus will hurt poorer countries harder, which is why the World Bank announced a $12bn package of loans yesterday to help them fund healthcare and other measures to combat Covid-19.

Q: How much support will the IMF and the World Bank provide to Africa?

Georgeiva says that the IMF’s analysis of the coronavirus crisis shows that sub-Sarahan Africa is a particular concern.

Malpass says the World Bank is speeding up its aid, and that “substantial assistance” is available.

Q: How about oil-producing nations in the Middle East?

Georgieva says oil producers were already suffering from lower oil prices, and the IMF are looking into the impact on growth.

With the coronavirus now a threat, these countries should use their fiscal buffers, and prioritise health spending, she adds.

IMF: We've moved towards more 'dire' growth scenarios

Q: How much growth is the IMF now forecasting for 2020?

Kristalina Georgieva says the IMF is still working on its new projections, and will release them in the coming weeks (they were due in April at the Spring Meetings, which are now being held virtually).

But she warns that the IMF has moved towards its “more dire scenarios” as the coronavirus crisis has intensified.

As long as we do not know the duration of this outbreak, we will be in a higher uncertainty place.

But on the upside, there are “encouraging signs of mobilisation”, and new targeted measures in place in several countries.

They will soften the impact of Covid-19, and hopefully shorten the duration of the crisis.

Q: So could we see a contraction in global growth this year?

Georgieva repeats that the IMF expects growth to be lower than in 2019 (when it was 2.9%, but won’t be drawn further.

Q: Do you welcome the Federal Reserve’s emergency cut to US interest rates yesterday?

Georgieva says it’s important that central bankers work in a coordinated manner, and act where possible (depending on how much ‘space’ they have).

What caused policymakers to suddenly galvanise themselves into action against the coronavirus?

It is the sheer geographic spread of the disease around the world, Kristalina Georgieva replies.

And also the knowledge about how the virus spreads. Unfortunately it is spreading undetected more than first thought, Georgieva explains. Plus, it is clearly not just affecting China, and the countries around it.

The coronavirus crisis calls for a “co-ordinated response mechanism”, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva continues.

The top priority for governments is to ensure that front-line health-related spending is strong enough to handle the coronavirus impact, she adds. And the IMF is “fully committed” to supporting its members, particularly the low-income countries at the greatest risk.

IMF SLASHES GROWTH FORECASTS

Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund has warned that global growth this year will fall BELOW last year’s levels due to the coronavirus crisis.

Previously, the IMF had predicted that global growth would rise to 3.3% this year, up from 2.9% in 2019. But that forecast has been torn up, due to the damage being caused by Covid-19 -- both to supply and demand across the world economy.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva is holding a press briefing now, where she explains that the Fund is “wrestling with is uncertainty,” and that defines our projections

Global growth in 2020 will dip below last year’s levels

But how far it falls, and how long the impact will be, is difficult to predict.

It depends on how the epidemic develops, and timeliness and effectiveness of policymakers’ actions, she says.

Georgieva also explains the Fund’s 189 members just held a conference call -- which showed there is a “clear commitment for action in a co-ordinated manner”.

She expresses the fund’s deep sympathy for those affected by coronavirus:

We are determined to act to reduce the risk and impact on people.

Georgieva says that one-third of the IMF’s members have been hit by the coronavirus.

This is no longer a regional issue, it is a global problem calling for a global response.

Georgieva predicts that the outbreak will “eventually retreat”.

But.... we don’t know how fast that will happen, and how the virus will respond when treatments and a vaccine are available “at scale”.

Georgieva explains that the coronavirus shock is unusual, as it affects both supply and demand. Supply is suffering due to people falling ill or dying, and also due to the efforts to restrict the virus.

Demand is also falling due to uncertainty and rising financial costs.

These effects spill over across borders, she explains. One third of the damage will be direct -- from loss of life, workplace closures, and quarantine move.

The other two-thirds are indirect costs -- including the tightening of financial markets and lower demand.

Updated

Lufthansa to ground 150 planes amid coronavirus crisis

Crumbs! German airline Lufthansa is grounding 150 of its aircraft, Reuters reports.

It’s another clear sign that the travel industry is experiencing weak demand, as consumers shun flights for fear of catching Covid-19.

A Lufthansa spokesman says:

“We are dynamically adjusting our plans to reflect extraordinary circumstances,”

According to Lufthansa’s website it has 752 aircraft, so this is roughly a fifth of its fleet.

Storm clouds are gathering over troubled UK regional airline Flybe.

The FT is reporting that the government has rejected Flybe’s request for a £100m loan to keep itself in the air.

If so, that’s a big blow -- Flybe has been pinning its hopes on a loan, after coming close to collapse in January.

The coronavirus outbreak is obviously very bad news for airlines -- it means less demand for Exeter-based Flybe’s routes between UK cities, and to Europe.

But....this is also an interesting test of the idea that governments and central bankers should help companies survive the economic damage of Covid-19.

Policymakers should use targeted measures to protect healthy firms (as Bank of America’s Ralf Preusser argued)... but what about companies who were already in trouble?

The latest US jobs data is a little mixed.

The good news is that American companies hired 183,000 new staff in February, according to payroll operator ADP. That’s more than expected.

It suggests that US companies weren’t panicking about Covid-19 last month.

However, January’s data has been revised down a lot -- from 291,000 to just 201,000.

So overall, fewer jobs have been created this year than we thought....

Last week’s market sell-off in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic has hit Legal & General’s solvency position, a key measure of its capital strength.

The insurer said today its solvency ratio had fallen by 10 percentage points since the start of this year to 174% on 28 February. A level above 100% indicates insurers have enough capital, although regulators usually want to see a higher number.

Insurers will face a two-fold hit from the virus outbreak due to increased payouts on travel insurance policies, for example, as well as investment losses.

L&G offers life insurance and pensions, and its finance chief Jeff Davies said the firm had “very little” exposure to the epidemic.

“We prepare and plan for a whole range of different scenarios both in terms of mortality and the market, the market is the big focus.”

L&G is also encouraging staff not to worry about self-isolating themselves:

Even before the coronavirus arrived, poor employee health has become the most frequent cause of disruption to businesses.

That’s according to the latest annual Horizon Scan Report, conducted by the Business Continuity Institute and the British Standards Institution and published today.

It interviewed 665 businesses and found that illness-related disruptions were a bigger problem than cyber-attacks (previously the top problem).

A third of businesses said they had faced disruption from health incidents -- with physical illness, mental illness or stress.

But despite this, health worries only ranked 15th on a list of threats this year. I imagine it’s rocketed to the top of many lists now!

Rachael Elliott, Head of Thought Leadership at the BCI, says many firms weren’t giving enough attention to workers’ health (and now face a wake-up call).

The Coronavirus outbreak is the kind of event that is both predictable and extremely disruptive – but its infrequency means it is considered unlikely to occur and so is often overlooked until its effects are all too apparent. This reality shows the importance and great value of taking time to scan the horizon and prepare for the unexpected.”

Hundreds of billions of dollars could be wiped back onto America’s largest companies today:

Wall Street is on track to recover almost all yesterday’s slump when trading begins in 90 minutes....and Joe Biden can take the credit.

Italy’s stock market is also rallying today, as its government announces plans to shut schools and universities until mid-March.

The FTSE MIB is up almost 1.5%.

Updated

FTSE 100 rally driven by supermarkets

Supermarkets, pharmaceuticals companies and cleaning product makers are driving the FTSE 100 higher.

Morrisons (+4.5%) and Sainsbury’s (+3.8%) are the top risers as City traders grab a lunchtime sandwich. They should be benefitting from panicky stockpiling as Britons prepare for quarantine measure to be imposed.

Astrazeneca (+3.2%) is also in demand, as is packaging firm DS Smith (+3.5%) which reported that coronavirus isn’t impacting its operations.

Reckitt Benckiser (+3.7%) is also among the FTSE risers. Last week it reported a surge in demand for its disinfectant products, Dettol and Lysol.

But while 91 stocks are driving the FTSE 100 higher, there are nine fallers.

Hotel chain Whitbread (-0.7%), food group Compass (-0.6%) and airlines group IAG (-0.3%) aren’t sharing in today’s rally.

Updated

On the global economic front, growth in Brazil has slowed.

Brazilian GDP only expanded by 0.5% in October-December, down from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

That’s better than the UK and Germany, who both stagnated, while France, Italy and Japan all shrank. But its another sign that the world economy was losing some oomph even before the coronavirus outbreak took hold.

Britain’s financial services regulator has said it has “no objection” in principle to City staff working remotely due to coronavirus quarantine measures.

But, the Financial Conduct Authority says firms must take all reasonable step to keep operating effectively and support their customers.

“For example, we would expect firms to be able to enter orders and transactions promptly into the relevant systems, use recorded lines when trading and give staff access to the compliance support they need.

“If firms are able to meet these standards and undertake these activities from backup sites or with staff working from home, we have no objection to this.”

Over in the UK parliament, Boris Johnson has announced new measures to allow the payment of statutory sick pay from the first day someone is sick, not from day four.

That is designed to help households help with the coronavirus....and cut the danger that people keep working while suffering from Covid-19.

But it’s not immediately clear whether it will help gig employees workers or the self-employed, who often aren’t entitled to sick pay at all.

Johnson indicates that universal credit could help - but that often involves a wait of several weeks....

Our Politics Liveblog has more details:

Updated

European markets are pushing higher, with the UK’s FTSE 100 now up 112 points or 1.7% at 6830.

That takes it back to last Thursday’s closing levels (although it was also briefly higher yesterday).

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, spies anxiety in the City, despite this rebound.

Markets are really worried about how the coronavirus disruption will affect corporate earnings, consumer spending and ultimately economic growth.

“A lot of precautionary measures are being put into place such as more people working from home, yet there are concerns about how that will affect productivity and spending,” says

Updated

There’s no relief from the stock market volatility.

Wall Street is currently being called higher, with the Dow up 500 points (or 2%) in pre-market trading.

On Monday it jumped 1,293 points (5%), only to slump by 785 points (3%) on Tuesday.

Ralf Preusser, global head of rates research at Bank of America, argues that interest rate cuts aren’t the right policy response to the coronavirus.

Instead, central banks and finance ministers need to take steps to avoid fundamentally healthy companies running into liquidity problems, because of the physical disruption to their business model and supply chains.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Preusser cited Italy’s stimulus package, which includes credit lines, and delays in tax and mortgage payments in the areas affected by Covid-19.

All these things are much more likely to be effective than monetary policy.”

Preusser adds that the ECB should consider “targeted liquidity operations” -- ie cheap loan to help eurozone companies whose operations are being hit by the coronavirus outbreak. It could also boost its asset purchase scheme, to ease monetary conditions in the euroarea.

UK retailers 'hit by coronavirus disruption'

Almost a quarter of British retailers are reporting severe disruption to their supply of goods as a result of the spread of coronavirus, a new survey has found.

My colleague Mark Sweney reports:

News that retailers are starting to struggle to maintain supplies of some products comes as a survey found that one in 10 people have already started stockpiling food because of fear of an outbreak in the UK.

A survey from the consultancy Retail Economics has found that 24% of British retailers – ranging from food and fashion to health and beauty – say that supply chain disruption is having a significant impact on their business. However, only 7% of those businesses surveyed said that they had enough flexibility in their supply chain to be able to switch suppliers.

The interest rates on UK government bonds has fallen to a fresh record low this morning.

10-year UK gilts are yielding just 0.35%, an extremely low rate of return, as investors pile into government debt.

That’s a signal that traders are feeling anxious - yields slump when the City expects a recession, or a prolonged period of weak growth. It’s also suggests that some traders are anticipating a cut to UK interest rates soon.

It also means the UK government can borrow very cheaply -- useful if Boris Johnson’s administration decides to launch new infrastructure projects to improve long-term growth rates.

Two more major European trade shows have just fallen victim to the coronavirus outbreak.

The London Book Fair has been cancelled, after major publishers including HarperCollins UK, Simon & Schuster and Hachette said they would not attend. It was due to run from 10-12 March, but is now off until 2021. More details on The Bookseller.

And over in Germany, the Hannover Messe industrial fair has been postponed from April until July.

Updated

Reuters has learned that European Central Bank policymakers held an unscheduled telephone conference call late on Tuesday to discuss their emergency response to the coronavirus outbreak.

However, policy action was not on the agenda, they’re heard. Instead, the eurozone’s top bankers discussed how they’d address a coronavirus panic - and ensure there are enough banknotes circulating.

More here.

Swiss bank UBS now expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory at its meeting next Thursday -- or sooner. That would hurt commercial banks who leave deposits at the ECB’s vaults.

They had expected the ECB to hold fire until April -- but the coronavirus crisis is now forcing earlier action, argues Reinhard Cluse of UBS:

In light of the 50bps emergency rate cut by the Fed, we are changing our ECB call.

We now expect the ECB to cut rates by 10bps to -0.6% on 12 March – if not earlier – and not wait until 30 April as our previous call implied.

In light of the Fed emergency cut – the next Fed meeting was originally scheduled for 18 March – and the G7 statement, we think the ECB can poorly afford to wait until end-April to deliver a policy response, even if the assessment of the economic fallout from the Covid-19 is not yet clear.

European stock markets are rallying this morning, lifted by hopes of stimulus measures...and the results of Super Tuesday.

Every index is up, with the FTSE 100 gaining 77 points or 1.1% to 6794. That’s a boost for savers and pension-holders -- but still leaves the Footsie 8% lower than two weeks ago.

Some investors are betting on more action from central banks and governments, following yesterday’s US interest rate cut and Bruno Le Maire’s call for fiscal intervention this morning.

Joe Biden’s stunning success in the Democratic primaries overnight is also lifting stocks, as the former vice-president proved he could yet challenge Donald Trump in November.

Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at XM, says:

After the Fed’s unscheduled rate cut ended up creating more panic than allaying concerns about the virus impact, investors found some solace in the results of Super Tuesday where 14 US states voted to choose their favourite for the Democratic nominee of the 2020 presidential election.

The big winner of the night was undoubtedly former Vice President Joe Biden, who made a remarkable comeback after a lacklustre start to his campaign. Biden now has more delegates than his main rival, Bernie Sanders, and this is music to Wall Street’s ears, who have less to fear from Biden’s centrist policies than Sanders’ socialist agenda.

US stock futures were last trading around 1.5% high.

Economic activity in Hong Kong has also slumped last month.

The IHS/Markit private sector PMI revealed a deepening recession, falling for the 23rd month in a row, from 46.8 in January to 33.1 in February, the steepest decline in history. Job shedding accelerated to its steepest rate in more than 18 years.

More here:

UK service sector slows amid coronavirus worries

Just in: Growth across Britain’s service sector slowed slightly in February, as the coronavirus hits sales.

Data firm Markit reports that business activity, new orders and employment all rose at slower rates than in January.

It says:

There were a number of reports citing a negative impact on sales from the coronavirus outbreak, particularly to clients in overseas markets. The loss of momentum for incoming new business also contributed to the sharpest drop in backlogs of work since last September.

This pulled the UK Services PMI down to 53.2 for February, from 53.9 in January. That still shows growth, but means some of the post-election bounce has faded.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, says the picture is mixed:

On one hand, February saw future output expectations climbing to the highest for over four and a half years as firms remained optimistic that reduced political uncertainty in particular will help drive further growth. On the other hand, the survey also highlights the risks to the economy from the coronavirus.

The outbreak was linked to reduced tourism numbers and lower travel and transport business volumes, but was also seen as having a wider hit to demand via reduced confidence and financial market volatility, as well as through supply shortages limiting the ability to fulfil orders.

Uncertainty regarding the UK’s trading relationship with the EU also lurks in the background as a risk to exports.

The recent stock market volatility has helped to scupper UK shopping centre Intu’s bid to raise over £1bn in fresh funding.

The cash call was always going to be a stretch -- given Intu has a £4.5bn debt pile, and is struggling from the slowdown on the high street.

This failure means Intu has missed the criteria set by its banks to grant a new four-year £440m revolving credit facility. More here:

Updated

The coronavirus crisis has (understandably) hurt confidence across Europe’s service sector companies.

That’s according to IHS Markit’s latest survey of purchasing managers, which says:

Business confidence regarding future activity was a little lower than January’s 16-month high during February. There were reports from across the region of worries over the impact on business from an escalation of the Covid-19 outbreak.

German companies remained the least optimistic, whilst those in Ireland were the most confident.

More encouragingly, Markit also found that eurozone company growth reached a six-month high in February - with its eurozone composite PMI rising to 51.6, from 51.3 in January.

ECB bans non-essential travel and visits

Just in: The European Central Bank has banned all “non-essential travel” by staff, including its executive board, until 20 April, as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak.

The eurozone’s central bank is also postponing all its conferences, apart from the monetary policy press conferences (to discuss interest rate moves and stimulus packages).

It is also suspending all non-essential visits including its visitor group programme.

ECB President Christine Lagarde says the moves will “ensure the safety and well-being of our staff while maintaining a fully operational central bank and banking supervision function.”

This chart from Bloomberg shows the dramatic slump in China’s car sales last month.

Coronavirus has “emptied” car showrooms, they add:

The outbreak has paralyzed the industry just as it was looking to gradually halt a two-year decline, with manufacturers now left with little visibility into when sales might recover. Automakers have poured billions of dollars into the world’s largest car market over the past decades in a bet on its growth potential.

Chinese car sales in record slump

China has also suffered its biggest monthly drop in car sales ever, in another sign of economic pain.

New auto sales slumped by 80% year-on-year in February, the China Passenger Car Association reports.

Astonishingly, that’s an improvement on the 92% slump recorded in the first two weeks of February. It underlines just how much economic activity has been wiped out by Beijing’s efforts to contain the coronavirus.

Many dealerships were shuttered last month, as workers were sent home to quarantine themselves. Many factories also remained closed, which is likely to hit the supply of new cars.

China's service sector suffers record slump

Overnight, we’ve seen fresh signs that China’s economy is suffering heavy economic damage from the coronavirus.

Activity in its service sector slumped at a record pace, according to the latest survey of company bosses.

Firms reported that total new business fell at the steepest rate on record, with domestic and overseas demand slumping. New export orders took a big tumble, as clients cancelled orders or cut travel to China.

This dragged Caixin China services purchasing managers index down to just 26.5 in February from 51.8 in January. Any reading below 50 shows a contraction -- and this is a shockingly low reading.

Zhengsheng Zhong, chairman and chief economist at CEBM Group, says:

“Stagnating consumption amid the coronavirus epidemic has had a great impact on the service sector.”

Bruno Le Maire: Europe must be ready for fiscal stimulus over virus

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire believes that Europe may need to boost government spending to protect its economy from the impact of the coronavirus.

Speaking on BFM business radio this morning, Le Maire said eurozone governments should be ready to use fiscal stimulus, if economic growth is damaged.

Le Maire also predicted that Covid-19 will knock more than 0.1% off France’s economic growth this year. That’s a blow, as France contracted by 0.1% in the last quarter.

He is also pledging to support businesses “on a daily basis”, so that French economic activity could restart “as soon as possible”.

Updated

Introduction: World Bank pledges $12bn to fight covonavirus

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After days of market turmoil, policymakers are starting to take action to protect the world economy from the ravages of the coronavirus outbreak - as it threatens to turn into a global pandemic.

Overnight, the World Bank announced a $12bn package of support for countries who are struggling to cope with the health and economic impacts of the global outbreak.

These loans can be used to help strengthen their health systems and safeguard their populations -- with better disease surveillance and stronger public health interventions.

Its president David Malpass says the World Bank Group is trying to provide a fast, flexible response to the crisis.

“This includes emergency financing, policy advice, and technical assistance, building on the World Bank Group’s existing instruments and expertise to help countries respond to the crisis.”

The move came hours after America’s central bank yanked its own policy levers, with its first emergency interest rate cut since 2008. That failed to reassure Wall Street, where the Dow suffered another tumble (down 785 points by the close)

But there are signs that investors are a little calmer today. European markets have just opened calmly, with the FTSE 100 rising by just 0.1%.

Wall Street futures are signalling a rebound (although that could easily change!).

With the global death toll from Covid-19 now at 3,190, we may see more policy intervention in the days ahead. Yesterday, the G7 said they ‘stood ready’ to cooperate further. The Bank of Canada is due to set (and probably cut) interest rates today, and further emergency rate cuts can’t be ruled out.

Indeed, analysts at Nomura think we might get an emergency cut in UK interest rates this week!

We’ll also get the latest surveys of eurozone and UK services sector companies -- likely to show signs that the coronavirus crisis hurt business last month.

The agenda

  • 9am GMT: Eurozone services PMI for February

  • 9.30am GMT: UK services PMI for February

  • 2.15pm GMT: New Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s appointment hearing at parliament

  • 3pm GMT: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
 

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