Summary: Worst day since 1987
Finally, here’s a reminder of today’s shock moves, from Jasper and our colleague Richard Partington:
Panic over the coronavirus on global financial markets amid the biggest market crash in a generation has forced the US central bank to inject trillions of dollars into bond markets in a dramatic attempt to prevent a repeat of the 2008 credit crunch.
As stock prices plunged around the world on Thursday, with both the London and New York markets suffering their worst day since the Black Monday crash of October 1987, the New York Federal Reserve said it would pump $1.5tn (£1.2tn) into the American financial system to stop markets from freezing up.
It came after the European Central Bank failed to reassure panicked investors with a botched rescue package, as the coronavirus death toll climbs and more countries impose emergency travel bans and outlaw large public gatherings.
The FTSE 100 index of leading UK company shares lost 10.87% on Thursday in the second biggest rout on record, taking total losses on the London market since mid-February – before the severity of the coronavirus outbreak became evident – to more than £540bn. The index closed down more than 600 points at 5,237, the lowest level since 2012. The Dow Jones in New York closed down 10%, losing 2,352 points to 21,200.
The Euro STOXX 600 index, which tracks all stock markets across Europe including the FTSE, fell by 11.48% – the worst day since it launched in 1998. The panic selling prompted by the coronavirus has wiped £2.7tn off the value of STOXX 600 shares since its all-time peak on 19 February.
“Today has been utterly brutal,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst of the online trading platform Markets.com. “Markets are at breaking point, there is a real systemic risk now with financial markets in complete turmoil over the coronavirus.”
In the most significant intervention to date, the New York Fed said it would offer three blocks of $500bn into an arm of the financial markets which allows banks to exchange government bonds for cash. It came amid signals that the international financial system was coming under severe strain from some of the most extreme movements in stocks and bonds for a generation.
Governments and companies use bond markets to borrow money from investors. In the 2008 credit crunch, banks stopped lending to one another as panic spread through the system. The Fed warned it had identified “highly unusual disruptions” amid widespread concern over the unfolding economic damage from Covid-19.
However, the move provided only a brief respite for share prices on Wall Street, before the Dow plunged again in what also turned out to be its worst day since 1987. European markets suffered the steepest losses, with shares in France and Germany plummeting by 12%, in Spain by 14% and Italy – at the heart of the outbreak in Europe – falling by almost 17% in its worst day on record. The trigger for market turmoil came after Donald Trump unveiled a unilateral ban on travel from 26 EU countries, sparking renewed stock market panic after a week of heavy selling pressure, as tensions rise between nations over the best way to respond to the virus.
The pound also suffered, falling by about 2 cents against the US dollar to $1.259 – its lowest since October – as investors sought safety in the American currency, which is typically regarded as a safe haven during times of heightened financial turmoil. The rush to buy dollars also pushed down the euro by 1.5%, back below $1.11. The widespread losses came despite the ECB becoming the latest global central bank to unleash emergency stimulus measures, following efforts by the Fed and the Bank of England, which announced an emergency cut in interest rates on Wednesday alongside Rishi Sunak’s expansionary budget. The stimulus measures to try to prop up the fragile eurozone economy included loosening restrictions on lending by banks in the currency bloc, and buying more private sector bonds. However, the ECB president, Christine Lagarde, did not unveil the interest rate cut expected by investors and called instead for eurozone governments to step in with increased spending. The normally sure-footed Lagarde came under fire after she refused to echo her predecessor, Mario Draghi, and say the bank would do whatever it takes to protect the eurozone from a recession. Referring to calls for the ECB to help ease borrowing costs for highly indebted eurozone countries, Lagarde said: “We are not here to close [bond] spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues.”
The cost of borrowing for the Italian government soared, sparking fears of a repeat of the 2012 eurozone debt crisis when the then ECB boss, Draghi, declared he would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the ECB chief’s intervention was a “disaster” given the scale of the challenge facing the global economy. “[Her] performance will go down as a catastrophic failure by part of the ECB. It is one of the world’s largest central banks, and today markets were crying out for a backstop; they got anything but,” he said. Banking bosses from lenders including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and Natwest were summoned by Rishi Sunak and Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, to discuss coordinated action to support small businesses. The group of lenders, which also included Santander, Virgin Money and Danske Bank, confirmed they were making more than £20bn available for companies that needed emergency financing over the coming months.
Goodnight, and good luck. GW and JJ
Updated
Bitcoin is continuing to slump -- at a pace that dwarfs the stock market tumbles today:
Although other assets have suffered similarly steep declines in recent weeks:
Updated
Tho’ markets in the US and Europe are closed, the futures markets are still open.
And they suggest markets are going to fall again tomorrow, with the German DAX currently 3% lower on IG’s overnight futures trading.
Not a good sign for Friday. But then, as nothing’s improved, why should it be?
Two weeks ago, the Dow suffered its biggest points fall ever -- 1,190 points, or 4.4%.
That felt like a lot at the time. Today’s slump is more than TWICE as bad, in both points and percentage terms.
I quite forgot to give you the Dow’s closing price! Sorry. Probably the shock.
Here it is, and the tech-focused Nasdaq too.
- Dow: down 2,352 points or 9.99% at 21,200.
- Nasdaq: down 750 points or 9.43% at 7,201
Dow suffers worst day since 1987
The Dow Jones industrial average has also suffered its worst day since the 1987 crash.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s $1.5trn intervention, stocks have plunged very, very sharply again.
That’s worrying -- the news that the Fed was aggressively providing liquidity to address this week’s market turmoil has been swept aside by investors.
Updated
S&P 500 in bear market
NEWSFLASH: America’s S&P 500 index has plunged into a bear market tonight, after another day of shocking losses.
The S&P 500 has just closed, down 260 points or 9.51% at 2,480.
That’s its worst one-day fall since 1987 -- matching the historic losses in Europe today.
Baseball’s only sport. Just like the markets are only money.
But the postponement of America’s Major League Baseball season tonight brings home to Wall Street just how much of an impact Covid-19 is going to have,
With just 10 minutes to go, Wall Street is still showing heavy losses again.
The S&P 500 is down 8%, which means it will be in a bear market when the closing bell rings, while the Dow Jones industrial average is down 2,120 points or 9%.
The International Air Transport Association, which represents most of the world’s airlines, has warned that President Donald Trump’s shock ban on visitors from most of Europe could drive some carriers out of business:
IATA had already predicted that the crisis could wipe out over $100bn of revenue - but even that extreme scenario didn’t include such severe measures.
Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, who has long been predicting an economic downturn, has warned today that stock markets are still very vulnerable - and shouldn’t be regarded as at bargain levels.
Edwards (known as a perma-bear in City circles) wrote:
“The toxic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic’s bursting of the Fed’s ‘everything bubble’ has collided with the grotesquely over-leveraged and vulnerable US corporate sector.
This puts equity markets in an even more vulnerable position.”
Here’s a number for you: Europe’s blue-chip stocks have lost €3tn (£2.7tn) in market value since hitting their highest level on record last month.
The last three weeks have wiped out almost seven years of gains for Europe’s largest companies (including many of those on the FTSE 100, Germany’s Dax and Italy’s FTSE MIB, amongst others). The index has been running since 1998.
This is the calculation from the kind people at Stoxx’s owner, Deutsche Boerse:
On February 19 the Stoxx Europe 600 reached its all time high with an index level of 433.90.
The corresponding free-float market cap of all constituents on that day summed up to €9.372 trillion.
As of close today (March 12) the free-float market cap is €6.372tn (sic), meaning €3tn of market cap was lost.
And this is what that looks like (the vertical lines on the right-hand side):
A worrying report from Reuters on the Treasury market, suggesting there are serious issues even after the Federal Reserve stepped in.
The promise of $1.5tn of liquidity is a sign that the Fed is taking the problems about as seriously as they come. The Treasury market (for US government bonds) is the benchmark for prices all over the economy, meaning any disruptions could be very serious across the financial system.
Here’s part of the Reuters report:
Liquidity in the $17tn Treasuries market has deteriorated to its worse levels since the financial crisis, traders said, and some market participants are concerned that conditions could lead to investors being forced to sell assets across markets.
Fears about the spreading coronavirus and how badly it will impact the global economy have sent investors running from stocks and into lower-risk assets, including Treasuries, which hit record low yields on Monday.
“Liquidity has definitely dried up, it’s the poorest I’ve seen since the financial crisis,” said Justin Lederer, an interest rate strategist and trader at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.
Conditions in Treasuries have not been orderly. Investors this week said they struggled to get satisfactory market prices for some bonds while the spread between the cost of buying and selling bonds widened dramatically, making it more expensive to trade.
Updated
A recap: here’s the damage from across Europe on a day that will be remembered long into the future (for all the wrong reasons).
- The FTSE 100 fell by 10.87%, its most since 1987 (the day after Black Monday). That was the second worst daily fall since the index started on 3 January 1984.
- The Euro Stoxx 600, which tracks shares across Europe and the UK, fell by 11.48% – the worst day since that record began in 1998.
- Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 16.92%, its worst loss ever.
- Germany’s Dax index fell by 12.24%; France’s Cac 40 lost 12.28%.
- The car industry and the insurance sector were the worst performing sectors.
Market participants are shellshocked. Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said:
Markets are at breaking point, there is a real systemic risk now with financial markets in complete turmoil over the coronavirus, Treasury markets showing immense signs of stress and a scramble for dollars whacking FX markets all over the place.
Today has been utterly brutal. European shares had their worst day ever and it is not unduly pessimistic to suggest that panic has taken hold.
US stocks are almost back where they were before the NY Fed intervened.
The S&P 500 is down by 7.9%. The Dow Jones industrial average has lost 8.3%, the Nasdaq has lost 7.7%.
Oil prices were briefly boosted by the Fed’s intervention in the markets, but the good cheer did not last.
A barrel of Brent crude, the North Sea benchmark, will set you back $32.71, according to futures prices. That represents a fall of 8.6% today.
Prices were briefly almost at $36 per barrel only this morning.
Here’s the long haul: a chart showing oil prices since 2015.
On a normal day that would be the headline gracing newspaper front pages. Today it feels almost like a footnote.
It’s worth taking a look back at some of the moves among UK shares on the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 today.
Here’s the picture of the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 (there aren’t any gainers):
The FTSE 250 fell by 9.35% – its third worst day. Among the mid-caps:
- Finablr, the owner of Travelex, lost 79.9% of its value today. It said it has launched an internal investigation into its financial situation and that it will take steps to address a liquidity squeeze.
- Premier Oil lost 45% after a lender send it should abandon proposed acquistions to save cash.
- Go Ahead, the operator of buses and rail services such as Southeastern, dropped 31.5% after it said it would be hit in the second half of the year.
In fact, the Fed’s actions in total represent more than $1.5tn in liquidity: $500bn for the three-month repo market today, followed tomorrow by $500bn in that market and $500bn in the one-month repo market.
Seema Shah, chief strategist, Principal Global Investors, said:
The Fed finally stepped up to the plate today, recognising the desperate need for aid from several parts of capital markets. By expanding its balance sheet significantly, injecting over $1.5tn into short-term funding markets, the Fed is acting aggressively to prevent a liquidity crisis from taking hold of the global financial system – a fear that had been driving equity markets lower and credit spreads wider.
The relief has been immediate, with stocks paring their losses as investors stop their indiscriminate selling. It remains to be seen how long risk assets will continue to be supported against a backdrop of global quarantines, travel bans, and spreading infection. But the Fed has certainly fulfilled its role of lender of last resort for markets today, injecting not just funds, but reassurance that someone is watching over them.
The actions of the NY Fed (which is responsible for market operations on behalf of its parent, the US Federal Reserve) have sparked talk of a return of quantitative easing.
It’s “QE4”, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He pointed to a modification of the Fed’s $60bn purchases of bonds, which it carries out to manage the stock of assets built up under quantitative easing. The Fed will widen the purchases to a broader range of debt.
Shepherdson said:
This is a full-blown crisis response operation, intended to make it abundantly clear that the Fed will not allow liquidity to dry up. [...]
It’s inconceivable to us that the Fed will not extend these operations; they can’t do anything which reduces policy accommodation, even at the margin.
In other words, we expect the Fed to purchase $60bn of securities across the spectrum for the foreseeable future: QE4 is here. This is a world away from the bill purchases, which effectively just allowed banks to swap bills for reserves at the Fed. This action will offset the inevitable downward pressure on money supply growth as economic activity contracts. It should weaken the dollar and raise asset prices, other things equal. They won’t be, but these actions should limit the damage. We expect the FOMC to announce indefinite purchases at next week’s meeting, alongside a rate cut of at least 50bp. Now it’s up to Congress to fire the fiscal bazooka, the bigger and quicker the better.
Prime minister Boris Johnson has described the coronavirus outbreak as the “worst public health crisis for a generation”.
The true number of cases is higher, “perhaps much higher”, than the latest figures suggest, he said.
More families, many more families, are going to lose loved ones before their time.
You can follow those developments here:
The $500bn operation came too late for European markets, but it appears to have given limited succour to US investors.
The US repo markets are a crucial part of the financial system, allowing banks and other financial institutions to borrow money against US government Treasury bonds. The NY Fed’s statement said that there had been problems in transactions in this market.
However, the liquidity actions will not address the underlying economic weaknesses that are scaring investors.
Here’s the full statement from the New York Fed.
Fireman Fed?
US stocks regain some losses after New York Fed steps in with $1.5tn move
Hello, Jasper Jolly here, taking over from Graeme Wearden. And the news isn’t stopping:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has stepped in with three $500bn injections of liquidity into markets – helping US stocks to recover some losses.
The NY Fed’s actions came after “highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak”.
This is from their statement:
Today, March 12, 2020, the Desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET that will settle on March 13, 2020. Tomorrow, the Desk will further offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation and $500 billion in a one-month repo operation for same day settlement. Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule. The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.
The S&P 500’s losses recovered to about 3.5% in the immediate aftermath of the move, but then sold off again. It’s now down by about 5.7%.
More details to come...
*This post has been corrected. An earlier version said there had been one injection of $500bn; in fact, there were three planned.
Updated
£160bn wiped off FTSE 100 today
Today’s slump has wiped another £160bn off the value of Britain’s biggest blue-chip companies, I calculate.
The FTSE 100 index of leading shares listed in London has now plunged by almost 30% in the last three weeks - a shockingly sharp move, with a severe impact on savers, pensions funds and ISA holders.
FTSE 100's BIGGEST LOSS SINCE 1987
NEWSFLASH: Britain’s FTSE 100 has suffered its biggest one-day loss since October 1987, and its second worst day ever.
The escalating coronavirus crisis has triggered an absolute rout in the City again, and around Europe, as Donald Trump’s EU flight ban sparks alarm -- and fuels fears of a global recession.
Investors appear to be pricing in a serious pandemic, with quarantine measures and lockdowns in major cities leading to huge economic cost, and losing faith that policymakers can prevent it.
The FTSE 100 has just closed down 10.87% today at 5237, a loss of 639 points.
Its only worse day was 20th October 1987 (as this chart shows).
There are some deep, deep losses - mining giants Anglo American and Glencore shed 18% and 17% respectively. Cruise operator Carnival plunged 17% too, after suspending its Princess cruises line for two months. Holiday firm TUI also lost 17%.
Insurance giant Prudential and asset manager Standard Life Aberdeen both lost at least 16%, with Barclays down 17%. Every single share fell, in a bigger wipeout than Monday’s slump.
David Madden of CMC Markets sums up the day:
It has been yet another horrendous day in the markets as fears surrounding the health crisis continue to rise. Trump’s travel ban set the scene, and even though the European Central Bank (ECB) announced measures to assist the eurozone, dealers remained in selling mode. The ECB kept the refinancing rate on hold at 0.0%, but the deposit rate was also left unchanged at -0.5%, while traders we expecting it to be cut to -0.6%. The central bank will assist SMEs in the currency area through a new targeted lending operation, and the terms will be more favourable. In addition to that, $120 billion of quantitative easing was revealed too.
Christine Lagarde, the ECB chief, called for a co-ordinated and ambitious response to the crisis, and traders will be looking ahead to Monday’s euro group meeting to see if there is a show of strengthen and unity. The ECB can only do so much on its own. Robust fiscal action is needed too. In relation to the government bond market, Lagarde, said they we not there to ‘close spreads’, but the stimulus addicted markets didn’t like that one bit, hence why European equites are massively lower.
The airline sector has had a terrible few weeks but things have gotten even worse for the industry on account of President Trump’s decision to introduce a travel ban from Europe. The restrictions will apply to flights from the Schengen area, so flights from Ireland plus the UK are excluded. The ban applies to people but not cargo. The drastic move is aimed at stemming the health emergency in the US.
Updated
Newsflash: Italy’s stock market has closed down 17%, Reuters is reporting - its worst day ever.
The EU-wide Stoxx 600 also had a terrible day, down 11% at the close of trading.
We’re just waiting for London to close now, but it’s going to be awful.
Donald Trump continues to insist that the coronavirus will “go away”, speaking at the White House earlier.
That will further alarm investors who fear the President isn’t taking the crisis seriously enough.
Donald Trump’s decision to ban EU flights from America was “the most expensive speech in history”, says Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.
“Investors are voting with their feet, and I can’t blame them. Markets wanted reassuring, and this was not reassuring.”
And with European markets down 10% today, and Wall Street down over 8%, it’s hard to argue.
Global stock markets have plunged into a bear market today, Reuters reports.
Today’s plunges in London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, Sydney and beyond have dragged the MSCI All-Country World index off over 20% from recent peak, less than a month ago.
As Dennis Dick, proprietary trader at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas, puts it:
“It’s not just the fear of the economy going weak, but basically being on the brink of shutting down.
“It’s mass selling across the board (and) we are pricing in a potential to go into another financial crisis.”
Updated
Christine Lagarde is trying to repair the damage from her comment about “not being here to close [bond] spreads”.
She’s told CNBC that the European Central Bank’s new package to protect the economy from the coronavirus will help close “dislocations” in the bond market:
ECB chief Christine Lagarde appears to have caused serious panic in the market today.
During her press conference, she was asked about the jump in bond spreads (the gap between yields on risky and less risky assets) -- and appeared to reply that it wasn’t her problem.
That has driven Italian bond yields soaring today.
As I flagged earlier, Lagarde’s message was that government’s need to step up -- but investors are now panicking that the ECB is abandoning Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes”.
Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says it is a “disaster” - far worse than the ECB’s notorious interest rates hikes in 2011 as the eurozone crisis was kicking off.
It is a major factor behind today’s rout (along with the shock of Donald Trump’s flight ban).
Vistesen writes:
Sometimes you’re just dealt a bad hand. The ECB came into this meeting with volatility and fear dialled to a max; that isn’t easy. That being said, today’s performance will go down as a catastrophic failure by part of the ECB. It is one of the world’s largest central banks, and today markets were crying out for a backstop; they got anything but. Ms. Lagarde spent significant energy on the press conference calling on fiscal policy coordination as the key tool to deal with the fallout from Covid-19. This is self-evident, but it is also extremely tone-deaf at the current juncture. We are not in the business of expressing what we think policymakers should do, but we’ll make an exception on this occasion. Here is the message, the ECB should have sent today.
“We don’t know what fiscal policy will do. We hope they act. In the meantime, we will backstop the financial system and real economy using our position as a central bank with unlimited firepower. “
Instead, Ms. Lagarde repeatedly referred to the need for fiscal policy to step up, even “come first”, eroding with a few sentences the power that her predecessor spent two terms nurturing. She even delivered the astonishing signal that the ECB is “not here to close spreads” with the result that BTP yields are up over 50bp as I type, and this is an economy that has just imposed a lockdown of its economy to combat Covid-19. We are very certain that Ms. Lagarde will have to eat those particular words in due course.
Updated
My god, Britain’s FTSE 100 is now down 10% - or 590 points, at 5287, as the sell-off accelerates in late trading.
We’re into the last hour of possibly the worst session on the London stock market in over 30 years.
The FTSE 100 is still showing huge losses, down 9.3% or 547 points at 5330. That would be the third-worse session in the index’s history (going back to to 1984), exceeded only by the crash of 1987 [which took place over 2 days].
Every stock is down, still, with travel firms and financial stocks bottom of the pile.
Back on Wall Street, traders are preparing for the official end of the Bull Market.
The S&P 500 index is down over 7.2%, or 196 points, at 2,544 -- or over 20% off its all-time high earlier this year.
Unless there’s a miracle rebound, it will end in bear market territory (as the Dow did yesterday), ending a stretch dating back to March 2009.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (-28%) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (-25%) are the biggest faller.
The Dow is down another 8%, or over 1,900 points right now -- chemicals firm Dow Inc (-16%), American Express (-12%) and Boeing (-11%) are leading the rout.
The chairman of Tesco has told UK shoppers not to panic about food shortages.
Chairman John Allan told BBC radio that the supermarket’s supply chains were coping, despite signs that shoppers are hoarding toilet roll, pasta, tinned goods and cleaning products.
“There’s plenty of product in the supply chain, there’s plenty of food at Tesco and other supermarkets, and I don’t think anybody needs to panic buy.
“We, and I’m sure our competitors, are re-filling our supply chains as rapidly as ever we can.”
The ECB’s new stimulus measures are broadly positive for banks, so it’s concerning that financial stocks are plunging.
So what’s going on?
Investors are realising that central banks have pretty much extended themselves, using all the tools at their disposal. The problem is that their efforts aren’t being matched by fiscal stimulus by governments across the EU. (A point that ECB’s Christine Lagarde has made ad nauseam, not just today.)
If governments fail to take action - primarily by spending money to support small businesses and individuals as they weather the effects of the coronavirus outbreak - it could result in a wave of defaults, which could wipe out investments and pile banks with bad debts.
Benjie Creelan-Sandford, an equity analyst at Jeffries said:
We read the ECB measures on balance as positive for banks - it provides strong liquidity backstop while reduction in capital requirements offers flexibility.
However, without follow-through from governments on fiscal measures to assist the most challenged parts of the economy, the market is likely to remain fearful about spillover impacts and eventual real losses for banks.
ECB's Lagarde: We need government action
ECB president Christine Lagarde has called for European leaders to help the eurozone’s ailing economy, as the bond markets flash alarmingly.
With markets plunging on both sides of the Atlantic, Lagarde told reporters in Frankfurt that Covid-19 was “a major shock” to the growth prospects of the global economy and the euro area economy.
But she also argued the effect would be temporary, if the right measures are taken.
Lagarde told today’s (unusually sparsely attended) press conference that:
“What happens after a severe and temporary fall, provided the right measures have been taken by all the players, is that the economy will then bounce back.
“The exact timing of that is uncertain. There will be a rebound but the timing is uncertain.”
And those measures must include government spending -- in an “ambitious, co-ordinated” response which must also tackle the public health challenge before us.
Lagarde demanded:
I really would like all of us to join forces, I very much hope that the fiscal authorities appreciate that we will only deal with this shock if we come together.”
Lagarde also revealed that the ECB is splitting itself into teams, so it can keep working through the crisis. That includes its own executive board, and the next press conference in April will be online-only.
Lagarde also defended the stimulus measures announced today, saying that the new liquidity, cheap bank loans and extra asset-purchases would target the risks in the euro area.
But there’s clearly disappointment -- the yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds are surging, in their biggest one-day moves since 2016. That shows investors are ditching peripheral-area bonds, and fearing a new debt crisis could be brewing.
European bank shares are being routed, with ING down 16%, ABN Amro down 15%, Deutsche Bank down 14% and Credit Agricole down 12.7%.
Financial stocks in London are also plunging; life insurance and financial services group Prudential are down 18%, while Legal & General are down 14%.
The market crash is sending investors racing to buy dollars.
This has sent sterling reeling, down 2 cents today to $1.26 - the lowest since October.
Trading has been briefly halted in Brazil too, where stocks plunged another 10%.
FTSE 100 on track for worst day since 1987
It’s another horrific day in the markets, turning into the bleakest sell-off we’ve seen since this crisis began.
The FTSE 100 index is on track for its worst one-day fall since 1987. Worse than Monday’s plunge. Worse than any single day in 2008 after Lehman Brothers failed.
Right now, here’s the situation:
- Dow: down 2,015 points or 8.5% at 21,537
- FTSE 100: down 540 points or 9.1% at 5322
Trading has resumed on Wall Street, and the Dow has promptly plunged by 2,000 points!
That takes the index down to a new one-year low, and shows just how serious this market crash is turning into.
Investors are becoming petrified of a worldwide recession, a coronavirus pandemic, widespread losses that leave companies unable to repay debts.
And Donald Trump’s statement last night is clearly failing to provide reassurance or support.
FTSE 100 falls 9% as rout intensifies
News that trading has been suspended on Wall Street has triggered a monster selloff in Europe.
The FTSE 100 has plunged 9%, shedding 546 points to just 5,330.37 -- levels not seen since 2012.
European stock markets have crated by 10% -- which would be the worse day ever for the Stoxx 600 index of EU companies.
Wall Street suspended as shares plunge 7%
NEWSFLASH: Trading has been briefly suspended on the US stock exchange, for the second time this week.
Automatic circuit breakers kicked in shortly after the open, at 9.30am New York (1.30pm UK), when the S&P 500 index plunged 7%.
The Dow has also plunged 7%, losing 1,696 points to 21,856 in opening trades. Investors are clearly more worried than ever about a global recession and a Covid-19 pandemic, following president Trump’s shock EU travel ban announced late last night.
That activates a 15-minute suspension (as happened on Monday).
Princess Cruises suspends sailings for two months
The coronavirus crisis has forced the Princess Cruises line to suspend global operations for the next two months.
Princess’s 18 cruise ships will be off duty for the next 60 days, a big blow to owner Carnival (whose shares were down 20% earlier)
Two Princess ships have been at the heart of the crisis.
The Diamond Princess was quarantined off the coast of Japan -- 700 passengers became infected, and 6 died. The Grand Princess was denied entry to San Francisco Bay last Wednesday en route back from Hawaii as authorities learned some passengers and crew had developed flu-like symptoms. It was finally allowed to dock on Monday:
The top faller on the FTSE 250 is Finablr, which runs Travelex. Shares are down 66% (!) after it warned it might struggle to access cash needed to manage its business as well as negotiate longer term financing.
Restaurant Group, which runs Frankie & Benny’s, Garfunkel’s and Wagamama, are down 23%. Clearly it would suffer from mass self-isolation in the coming weeks...
...as would airport food operator SSP, who are down 19%.
Shares in UK train and bus operators are slumping today, after Go-Ahead warned the coronavirus would hurt profits.
National Express are down 18%, First Group has lost 17%, Stagecoach are off 12%, and Trainline are down 11%. Their revenues would all suffer if fewer people travel into work (as seems imminent).
Go-Ahead itself is down 30%, making it one of the big fallers on the FTSE 250.
Back in the UK, Travel insurers Aviva, InsureandGo, and the Post Office have followed LV= and have withdrawn cover for future coronavirus claims, or stopped selling policies.
On Wednesday night LV= shocked the travel industry when it announced that it would stop selling all travel insurance policies with immediate effect, due to the coronavirus outbreak.
The move appears to have been prompted by the World Health Organisation declaration of a pandemic, on Wednesday afternoon.
Updated
Bank stress tests delayed by Covid-19
Industry regulator the European Banking Authority is delaying its EU-wide stress test by a year so that banks can focus on the challenges posed by the coronavirus outbreak.
Instead, the EBA said it would launch a transparency exercise to determine how much risk they hold on their balance sheets.
“Addressing any operational challenges banks may face should be the priority. The EBA has decided to postpone the EU-wide stress test exercise to 2021. This will allow banks to focus on and ensure continuity of their core operations, including support for their customers,”
It also urged national regulators to take advantage of existing rules that allow for some flexibility around the kind of capital that banks have to hold to cushion against potential downturns and risks.
The announcement comes just a week after EBA banned all external meetings at its Paris headquarters until 20 April to try tackle the spread of Covid-19.
By resisting a rate cut today, the ECB has left its benchmark rate at 0%.
It will continue to impose a negative rate of 0.5% on commercial bank deposits left at the ECB (to encourage lending).
And that means that today’s new cheap loans to banks will be priced at -0.75%. In other worse, the ECB will be paying commercial banks to borrow - as long as they actually pass this money onto the real econmy.
European stock markets are plunging deeper into the red following the ECB’s announcement.
The FTSE 100 is now down 420 points, or 7.1%, at 5456 -- which would be its lowest close since 2012.
The German DAX is also sliding:
And....the eurozone bank index has hit a record low.
And also.... the gap between German and Italian government bonds has widened.
That suggests there’s disappointment that the ECB hasn’t gone further today, either with a rate cut or some targeted help for Italy.
The European Central Bank is also relaxing the capital rules on banks, to help them through the crisis.
It says:
The European Central Bank (ECB) today announced a number of measures to ensure that its directly supervised banks can continue to fulfil their role in funding the real economy as the economic effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) become apparent.
“The coronavirus is proving to be a significant shock to our economies. Banks need to be in a position to continue financing households and corporates experiencing temporary difficulties. The supervisory measures agreed today aim to support banks in serving the economy and addressing operational challenges, including the pressure on their staff,” said Andrea Enria, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board.
ECB launches new stimulus, but no rate cut
NEWSFLASH: The European Central Bank has announced new stimulus measure to support the eurozone economy through the coronavirus shock.
It is launching new longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs), which will offer liquidity to the financial system, saying:
Although the Governing Council does not see material signs of strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the banking system, these operations will provide an effective backstop in case of need.
It is also offering new, very cheap loans for banks, to encourage lending:
These operations will support bank lending to those affected most by the spread of the coronavirus, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises.
Thirdly, it is boosting its quantitative easing (asset-purchase) scheme by €120bn
A temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion will be added until the end of the year, ensuring a strong contribution from the private sector purchase programmes. In combination with the existing asset purchase programme (APP), this will support favourable financing conditions for the real economy in times of heightened uncertainty.
BUT it has also left interest rates on hold at today’s meeting, resisting pressure to cut to new record lows.
Updated
It’s just passed noon, and there’s no recovery in the City.
The FTSE 100 is still being hammered, down 5.7% or 341 points at 5534. Every share is still down.
Holiday firms Carnival and TUI are among the worst of a very bad lot, down 14% each.
Thameslink and Southeastern rail operator Go-Ahead is in discussions with the Government on relaxing the rules around timetable changes to cope with the conoravirus pandemic, reports the Press Association
Chief executive David Brown explained he is hoping to be allowed to make changes faster than the current 70-day notice period.
“We want to be able to respond far quicker. Let’s say everyone wants to travel off-peak, we want to be able to make more services available.”
Food delivery group Deliveroo has introduced a “no contact drop-off service” as concern grows about the coronavirus pandemic in the UK.
The app-based food delivery company told customers they will be able to request in the app that their food is left on the doorstep, thus “removing the need for direct contact for both parties.”
A spokesperson says this will keep customers, riders and restaurants safer.
Updated
The coronavirus crisis has forced housebuilder Berkeley Group to suspend a £455m payout to shareholders, a mixture of dividends and share buybacks, until there is greater clarity on the economic impact of the pandemic.
It added that there had been “no noticeable impact” on its business so far.
The US travel ban could pile further pressure on oil markets by cutting demand for jet fuel, according to Rystad Energy.
Oil prices fell to just above $33 a barrel this morning after President Trump’s ban on European flights for the next 30 days.
The Norwegian energy analysts said traders received the news “very negatively” for three reasons: first, the cancelled flights could dent demand for oil by around 600,000 barrels; but importantly the move also stokes fear of further economic slowdown, and undermines confidence in the governments’ handling of the fall-out. The oil market was already reeling from a double-blow due to the impact of the coronavirus and plans for an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Rystad has warned that oil prices in the $20s are not far off if the pair battle for dominance by pouring more oil into the market while demand remains weakened by Covid-19.
(Contango is when the price of a commodity today is lower than the forward price)
Ireland has just announced that schools, universities and childcare facilities will close until 29 March, due to Covid-19.
Acting PM Leo Varadkar also said people should limit mass gatherings, work from home where possible, and stagger their break times.
Lloyd’s of London’s temporary, one-day closure will affect thousands of brokers and underwriters.
Just under 50,000 people hold a pass to the building, but don’t all turn up every day, and Friday is a quieter day, John Neal explains.
Updated
Lloyd's of London to close underwriting room for a day
Newsflash: Lloyd’s of London will close its underwriting room for 24 hours from midnight, until midnight on Friday, says its chief executive John Neal.
This closure of the four-floor ‘room’ will allow Lloyd’s to test its emergency protocols, and to deep clean the market.
From next week, a third of workers on its risk team (around 100 people, out of 800 workers) will be working in the office, a third from home and a third from third party site, Neal explains.
Neal says the underwriting room has never been closed before. He says there are no confirmed coronavirus cases at the corporation, but added that there are “anecdotal stories of one to two cases”.
Bitcoin is tumbling too.
The crypto-currency has slumped from $7,859 last night to around $6,600 as I type, a drop of 15%. Trading is extremely volatile.
It appears to be suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, as people try to get hold of cash (perhaps to cover losses on other investments)
Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at interactive investor, warns that Wall Street is on track for another plunge in three hours time:
The latest pronouncement from the US has exacerbated the sour mood, with a travel ban from Europe dealing another blow to the beleaguered tourism and travel sector. At the same time, the lack of any specific positive measures in the update has given markets an additional and unwelcome hit to factor in to share prices.
Notable by its absence at the moment is any good news. The coronavirus has yet to peak, the oil price is under renewed pressure (although this may prove positive for consumers in the medium term) and only a fraction of the eventual economic cost has been confirmed, even though a growing number of companies are valiantly trying to put a figure on the hit to their earnings. Meanwhile, there is nowhere to hide, with even the traditional haven of gold in negative territory today.
Sellers are pushing against an open door, and the situation could unfortunately get worse before it gets better. Hours ahead of the open, Dow futures have already hit the “limit down” circuit breakers, which suggests that another traumatic day is in the offing.
The number of brave souls trying to snap up shares, hoping we’re near the bottom of the slump, is falling too:
Even interactive investor customers are buying with less conviction. Of those choosing to trade today, 75% are buyers, which compares to the initial falls on Monday this week where the figure was 90%.
Warnings about corporate debt levels are coming home to roost en masse thanks to the coronavirus, flags up economics professor Nouriel Roubini:
Market update: It's really bad again
After over two hours of frenzied trading, European markets are still a mess - trading at their lowest levels since 2016.
In London, the FTSE 100 is still down over 5%, having briefly hit its lowest level since 2012 this morning. That wipes another £80-odd billion off the index, pushing its coronavirus crisis losses over £450bn.
The top faller on the Footsie is now betting firm Flutter, after rival Betway was hit with an £11.6m penalty for taking stolen money from its VIP customers.
But otherwise, the top fallers are companies particularly exposed to president Trump’s travel ban - or the prospect of tighter movement controls in the UK.
Rolls-Royce, which makes engines for the world’s aeroplane manufacturers, are down 12.5%. Holiday firm TUI are down 12%, with the summer booking season looking a complete washout. Cruise operator Carnival are down 9.9%. Whitbread, which runs the UK Premier Inn hotel chain, has lost 10.7% - as companies ban staff from attending conferences.
In Frankfurt, car maker Daimler, airline Lufthansa and Deutsche Bank have all lost 8% this morning.
On the Paris market, steelmaker ArcelorMittal are down 9%, with carmaker Renault and airline manufacturer Airbus losing 8%.
- Stoxx 600: down 18 points or 5.5% at 315
- FTSE 100: down 320 points or 5.4% at 5558.
- German DAX: down 553 points or 5.3% at 9,885
- French CAC: down 251 points or 5.5% at 4,358
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: down 983 points or 5.5% at 16,943
- Spanish IBEX: down 440 points or 5.9% at 6,995
The US travel ban, and Italy’s increasingly severe lockdown, are triggering the rout, as analyst Marios Hadjikyriacos of City trading firm XM explains:
Financial markets remain in absolute chaos as virus concerns run rampant. US stocks lost 5% on Wednesday and futures point to another 5% plunge when Wall Street opens today, after President Trump announced overnight that he will ban all travel from Europe for the next month to slow the spread of the virus.
European stocks didn’t escape the carnage, with most indices down ~6% today not just on concerns of business disruptions due to the travel ban, but also due to an increasingly worrisome flow of European news. Italy closed down most of its stores yesterday, while one country after another is closing down schools and banning public events.
British train and bus operator Go-Ahead Group was warned its profits could be hurt by coronavirus (although there’s no real damage yet).
Reuters has the details:
“At this moment in time it is not affecting us, not in any dramatic way because people haven’t changed their travel patterns yet,” CEO David Brown said in an interview on Thursday.
But over the coming months, that could change.
“If people are told not to travel, that would not be good,” he said.
Go-Ahead operates the GTR rail network in London and south east England, as well as London buses and buses in other parts of the UK.
The market slump shows some investors are pricing in a major downturn, a lockdown of US cities, and a “severe credit crunch”, say analysts at Nomura:
The market has been jolted to the point of breaking, and textbook common sense seems to no longer apply. To all appearances, investors are bracing themselves for a worst-case scenario in which the coronavirus spreads in explosive fashion and leads to a global recession, the lockdown of major urban centres across the US, and a severe credit crunch. It is difficult to know what investors are actually thinking, but given the extreme uncertainty over what will happen, investors’ own insecurities could cause a worst-case black swan scenario to actually unfold in self-fulfilling fashion.
They also believe further losses could follow, as investors continue to ditch riskier assets:
Although we are simply hypothesizing here based on our estimates, we are of the impression that to the extent that relatively inexperienced market players have taken this episode as a shock, they are also likely to be quicker to conclude that the flow of bad news has been depleted. Conversely, investors who have already lived through such episodes as Black Monday and the collapse of Lehman Brothers may be less shocked by the present episode, but by the same token, they may be more inclined towards caution over what comes next. There is no data available on the age distribution of market participants. However, we suspect that the market’s departure from what has passed for common sense may be encouraging more experienced investors to brace for more risk-off movements, thereby exacerbating the market plunge.
Stock markets are capitulating in the face of the coronavirus’s threat to the global economy (and Trump’s response), says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“Today’s early morning session saw a 6.3% decline in the FTSE 100 to 5,502 which put the index back to levels not seen since July 2012.
Donald Trump’s restrictions on travel from many parts of Europe to the US have spooked the market, particularly because his initial comments implied they would also block cargo, which he has since retracted.
The travel ban will raise expectations that the US will enter recession. After all, Europe is a key source of tourists and business travel to North America and so there will be a large drop in spending which the region would normally enjoy.
Today’s warnings from WH Smith and Cineworld show that the real economy is now suffering, he adds:
“For anyone in London, it does feel like some of the commuter trains are less busy, so too gyms and swimming pools. Daily activity is being affected by more people working or staying at home. One can only assume this trend is emerging across the rest of the country.”
There’s a lot of grim charts out there today, but this one might be the worst. It shows how the Stoxx 50 index of Europe’s largest companies is half its level before the dot-com crash:
The speed and scale of the destruction of shareholder value in the last few weeks is shocking.
The 25% wiped off the FTSE 100 since 21 February is equal to roughly £470bn - a huge debt in pension pots, ISAs and tracker funds.
Hopes that the sell-off might abate have consistently been crushed as Covid-19 has continued to spread -- making a global recession more and more likely.
Worryingly, the cost of insuring airline’s debt against default is rising this morning too.
The CBOE VIX index, which tracks volatility in the markets, have surged to its highest level since 2008, Reuters reports.
That shows just how scared investors are about situation today.
The EU-wide Stoxx 600 has plunged by 6.7% this morning, with markets an absolute sea of red.
The technology sector is down 8%, consumer cyclicals have lost 7%, industrial groups are down 6.9% and banks have lost another 6.6%.
This takes the Stoxx 600’s losses for 2020 to 25%.
FTSE 100 falls through 5,500
Wild trading in London has driven the FTSE 100 as low as 5,482 points, down over 6% today.
Every single company on the blue-chip index, and on the smaller FTSE 250 index, is down.
Cineworld has slumped 30% after it warned it could breach its banking covenants if cinemas are forced to close (see earlier post).
Wall Street is heading for another slump too -- trading in futures contracts have been suspended ‘limit down’, after falling 5%.
Markets face a ‘perfect storm’ today, warns Ayush Ansal, chief investment officer at Crimson Black Capital:
“Covid-19 has triggered a chain reaction across markets that could prove unprecedented.
“The travel ban is a major over-reaction from President Trump and economies and markets globally will pay the price.
“Unsurprisingly, the FTSE 100 fell sharply on Thursday’s open and further falls are inevitable if any significant steps are announced following the[UK government’s] emergency Cobra meeting.
“Coupled with the World Health Organisation’s declaration that the Covid-19 outbreak is a pandemic, the European travel ban has created a perfect storm for markets.
Coronavirus profit warning from WH Smith
WH Smith shares have tumbled 17% this morning after the retailer issued a profit warning because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The company flagged a “significant impact” on its shops at airports in Asia Pacific, which accounts for 5% of its travel division’s revenues. And in the last fortnight, passenger numbers at airports in the UK (60% of revenue), the US (25% of revenue) and Europe have also dropped.
The outbreak could also affect high street spending in the UK, and will drag down WH Smith’s revenues and profits this year. The company warned that revenues would be £100m to £130m lower in the year to 31 August while profits before tax are likely to be £30m to £40m lower.
Trump’s 30-day European travel ban is clearly not helping...
Sunak: No UK travel ban plan
UK chancellor Rishi Sunak has said Britain has no plans to shut its borders.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today Progamme, Sunak said the evidence doesn’t support such a move.
He says the UK government is determined to take the right steps at the right time, an doesn’t feel a travel ban is the right thing to do.
Sunak also denied that the huge borrowing plans announced in yesterday’s budget are a gamble, pointing out that government bond yield (interest rates) are at record lows [partly because panicky investors are piling into bonds and ditching shares]
Cineworld isn’t the only company warning about the impact of coronavirus this morning.
The upmarket estate agents Savills has flagged that the coronavirus pandemic has caused a big drop in deals in China and elsewhere in Asia – and this could also happen in other countries as the virus spreads.
Its chairman, Nicholas Ferguson, said:
“In Asia, particularly China, it is clear that COVID-19 is having a significant impact on transactional activity and may have a similar effect elsewhere, depending to an extent on the length and severity of each outbreak.
Our focus is on the welfare of our staff and clients and we have instituted protective measures in locations potentially affected by this virus.”
Cineworld, the world’s second-largest movie chain, has warned if the spread of the coronavirus forced the closure of all its cinemas for two to three months it would face breaching its financial covenants with lenders.
The company, which said cinema admissions in January and February were up year-on-year and are currently at a “good level”, is planning cost cuts and delaying capital expenditure as virus measures.
The company has no cinemas in China, where movie theatres have been closed since the beginning of February, with 75% of its business in North America. About 10% is derived from the U.K. & Ireland and the remainder is from operations in the rest of the world, mostly Eastern Europe.
The company said that aside from the new James Bond film, No Time To Die, which has been postponed from April to November, Hollywood studios “remain committed” to their movie release schedules this year.
If this rout continues, the FTSE 100 index will soon hits its lowest level since 2012, when the eurozone debt crisis was raging.
European stock markets are also taking a bath:
The FTSE 100 has slumped to its lowest level since February 2016.
Airline stocks are, predictably, being hit particularly hard. British Airways parent company, IAG, has lost 10.5%. EasyJet has slumped by 11.3%, while holiday maker TUI is off 8.7%
Mining giant Anglo American has fallen 10.5%, reflecting the growing fears of a painful global recession.
FTSE 100 PLUNGES AGAIN
A fresh wave of selling in early trading has sent Britain’s stock market slumping again.
The FTSE 100 index has plunged by 311 points, or 5.3%, down to 5565. Every single share is falling.
Jet engine maker Rolls-Royce is the top faller, slumping by 13%.
Donald Trump’s EU travel ban has clearly shocked City investors, and dashed hopes that the worst of the market meltdown could be behind us.
Last month, before the crisis began, the FTSE 100 was trading around 7,404 points -- the stock index has fallen by around 25% since.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com also believes Donald Trump has made a bad situation much worse:
The World Health Organisation has finally declared the outbreak a pandemic – this is only going to force governments to feel they need to take more draconian measures, ramping up the uncertainty and the near-term economic shock. Volatility is not going anywhere, and we again see global stock markets tumbling on Thursday.
So much for Trump’s stimulus. Instead of his late-night presidential address calming things, it only fanned the flames raging in markets. The president has gone from calling it a Democrat hoax to banning all travel from Europe in just 12 days.
A 30-day European travel ban didn’t allay market fears that this virus is spreading very fast and will wreak economic havoc. Indeed, it actually makes the economic harm greater, at least in the short term
Donald Trump’s measures are likely to help push the world into recession, fears Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist of insurer Allianz.
El-Erian warned:
“The advanced economies are now likely to feel the full force of economic sudden stops that destroy both supply and demand at the same time,” he said. “The collapse in economic activity risks being amplified by the economics of fear, uncertainty and adverse economic-financial feedback loops.
“I believe there is a high probability of global recession.”
Introduction: Trump coronavirus travel ban shocks markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The global stock market slump is intensifying today after US president Donald Trump banned travel to America from the European Union for a month, to combat the spread of Covid-19.
During a rare address to the nation, Trump blamed on the European Union for not acting quickly enough to address the “foreign virus”, saying US clusters had been “seeded” by European travellers.
“We made a lifesaving move with early action on China.
Now we must take the same action with Europe.”
The shock restrictions will affect all foreign nationals (but not US or UK citizens) coming from the Schengen area, were announced as Trump continued to downplay the severity of Covid-19 - insisting the risk was “very, very low” for most Americans.
Hopes of a massive stimulus package were dashed. Trump did again called for immediate payroll tax cuts, and said he’d instruct the Treasury Department to allow individuals and businesses negatively affected by the coronavirus to defer their tax payments.
He also promised emergency action to provide financial relief for working Americans who are ill or quarantined, and said he’d push Congress for $50bn for small business loans.
Trump’s appearance came just hours after the Dow Jones industrial average plunged into bear market, having dropped more than 20% from its recent high.
Asia-Pacific markets have been rocked already, with Japan’s Nikkei falling over 4% and Australia slumping over 7%.
European markets are heading for fresh heavy falls today, with the FTSE 100 being called down another 5% - or at least 300 points, down to 5576. Airlines will surely be severely hit, as they already grapple with the threat of a global downturn.
Investors are losing faith in policymakers abilities to address the coronavirus crisis, with Italy now under a full-blown lockdown.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, says Trump has ‘toppled the markets’:
Reality has swamped even the most ardent optimist in equity markets now. There is no doubt that the world is grappling with a coronavirus aggregate demand/supply shock, plus a deflationary wave on oil prices launched by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The bottom will be in sight when markets stop reacting to negative news. That is likely to be some way off yet.
Given Europe’s incredibly poor response so far to the developing situation, with a flock of headless chickens running around appearing more focused, and with a US travel ban in place, European stock markets could be in for an outsized drop when they open this afternoon.
Later today the European Central Bank may announce stimulus measures of its own, at its regular monetary policy meeting.
The agenda
- 12.45pm GMT: European Central Bank interest rate decision
- 1.30pm GMT: Press conference with ECB chief Christine Lagarde
Updated