When the Daily Telegraph reported last week that a fertiliser plant in Narrabri being advanced by a West Australian businessman had topped the list of the projects being promoted by the National Covid Coordination Commission, there was some surprise.

Vikas Rambal and Perdaman Chemicals and Fertilisers are not exactly household names, and the controversial Narrabri coal seam gas project – which would provide the cheap gas that the fertiliser project depends on – is yet to be approved by the New South Wales government.

The commission considered fertilisers to be one of the biggest opportunities, along with petrochemicals and methanol, the executive chairman of the Covid commission, Nev Power, the former Fortescue Metals chief executive, told the Telegraph.

“A cracking idea,” the energy minister, Angus Taylor, told the Telegraph in response to Power’s touting of the Perdaman project.

“I like to think of the other side of Covid-19 as being a gas-fired recovery,” Taylor said.

Just why Power has chosen to promote this project in his quest to rebuild the nation is unclear.

Rambal has not yet sought planning approval of the $1.9bn project and the only tangible signs are press releases promising 700 jobs and a non-binding agreement with the coal seam gas project’s owner, Santos.

Santos is still months away from learning if it has approval – and that’s a big if. The NSW planning department is yet to make a recommendation. After that it goes to the independent planning commission which has 12 weeks to seek submissions, hold public hearings and make a decision.

The Covid commission is also said to have dusted off plans for a west-east pipeline from the North West Shelf that was first mooted in 2018 but rejected by the federal government after a study by consultants ACIL Economics found it was feasible but not the most economical way to increase gas supply on the east coast.

The Covid commission’s strong promotion of gas has the potential to give rise to the perception of conflicts of interest.

Power, a prominent West Australian businessman, was until February 2018 the chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group, which is heavily involved in a major gas and solar project in the Pilbara in WA. FMG is also building NSW’s gas import terminal at Port Kembla and Forrest has interests in junior gas producer Squadron Energy.

Since leaving Fortescue, Power has joined the board of Strike Energy, chaired by his close friend and fellow WA businessman, John Poynton. It is seeking to develop coal seam gas fields around Perth. The company signed a deal to provide gas to a fertiliser manufacturer, CSBP, in 2019.

The coordination committee also includes people with links to the energy industry. Catherine Tanna is the chief executive of Energy Australia, a retail electricity and gas supplier, and the former Labor industry minister, Greg Combet, worked as a consultant for the gas industry after leaving parliament, though these days he has returned to his industry roots as the chair of Industry Super.

Other members of the associated manufacturing taskforce also have close ties to the gas and petrochemical industry: Andrew Liveris, the former chief executive of Dow Dupont, is also a director of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco and listed energy and chemical industry service company Worley.

James Fazzino is the chairman of the private sector body the Australian Manufacturing Council and a director of APA , one of the largest pipeline infrastructure companies in Australia. Prior to that he was the chief executive of Incitec Pivot, an explosives and fertiliser manufacturer – which uses gas as one of its major inputs.

The task force also includes representatives of the major employer lobby groups, including Innes Willox from Australian Industry Group and Ben Eades from Manufacturing Australia, who have been advocates of expanding gas production, as well as Paul Bastian, the national president of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, which covers workers in the mining and energy sector.

Choosing the way out of a crisis

Manufacturing now constitutes just 6% of Australia’s GDP while services account for 60%. Other parts of the economy arguably offer a quicker path to returning to economic strength and pose more immediate challenges. And if boosting manufacturing capacity is the key, where is the expertise in renewables, the digital economy or other high-tech areas?

Only one commission member, David Thodey, the former chief executive of Telstra, has direct experience in the digital world, while Jane Halton, a former public servant who now serves on the Crown Resorts board, could perhaps offer insights into the tourism sector – or a portion of it. Paul Little, the former head of transport company Toll Holdings, clearly has experience in transport and supply lines, which will be an important part of the committee’s work.

Power did not respond to questions sent by Guardian Australia via the Covid commission.

However, a spokeswoman for the commission said it was not the role of the commission to promote individual projects and that the Daily Telegraph had misunderstood Power’s reference to the Perdaman fertiliser plant.

“The National Covid-19 Coordination Commission is providing advice to the Australian government from a business perspective on areas of focus to drive our economic recovery. The commission is not endorsing specific projects.

Rambal told the Guardian he knew Power through Perth business circles and because of their common interests in developing businesses in the Pilbara region.

“Once this commission was set up I wrote a letter with a presentation on the manufacturing capacities Australia has. So I approached PMO office as well to make sure we have all the support we need. Because manufacturing is not easy in this country. You need all the support you can get to get a project up,” he said.

Rambal said Power wanted projects and people “with runs on the board and people who know how to do it”.

“I will say to everyone they should approach him if they have the capacity. Why not, let’s help each other here,” Rambal said. “He’s an approachable guy and he’s been mandated with his team to get some projects going,” he said.

Recovery mission or de facto industry policy?

The National Covid Co-ordination Commission was announced by the prime minister, Scott Morrison, less than a month ago.

It does not have any formal terms of reference on its website other than two dot points that say its mission is to “minimise the impact of Covid-19 on jobs and businesses” and “facilitate the fastest recovery possible once the virus has passed”.

According to releases on its website it’s been involved in facilitating the supply of critical medical supplies and ensuring that disrupted supply chains are restored.

But in a few short weeks it appears to have morphed into a de facto industry policy department.

Insiders told the Guardian members have been talking up the idea of “building national capacity” and “reclaiming sovereignty” through domestic manufacturing. But critics warn this is code for “picking winners” and a new wave of protectionism.

It is certainly a very different approach to that of the last two decades, when industry policy has tended to focus on non-sectoral support such as R&D incentives.

On Sky News Business, Power said during the immediate post-Covid period Australia needed to embrace high-tech, flexible manufacturing that “attracts a sort of investment we need”.

“In the early days, post-pandemic, we will have a low dollar, disrupted supply chains which create opportunities for local manufacturing and we will have ample supply of labour from people that have been displaced from industries that will take longer to start up,” he said.

Andrew Liveris makes no bones about the need to foster domestic manufacturing: he served on President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council, set up to drive Trump’s agenda of “making America great again”.

“Australia drank the free-trade juice and decided that off-shoring was OK. Well, that era is gone,” Liveris told the Australian Financial Review after he was appointed last week. “You need some balance in there that lessens the reliance [on foreign suppliers], and safeguards your basics and essentials.”

While all members are well qualified, their very expertise and experience means that there is a potential for conflicts of interest or at least a skewing toward the sectors they know intimately.

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The spokeswoman for the commission said the NCCC was following “best-practice arrangements for managing the integrity of its advice”.

“Recognising that their expertise and affiliations may expose them to perceptions of potential conflicts of interests, the NCCC is following strict government practice, as applies to ministers and senior public servants, in managing potential conflict of interest in relation to each of the members of the NCCC.

“That includes recusal from discussions where there may be a conflict of interest and written declarations to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet recording their interests and those of their family members.”

She said the NCCC had also put in place additional processes to manage potential conflicts of interest, such as commencing each meeting of the NCCC with a declaration of any relevant conflicts.

“These additional processes have been communicated to government. Mr Power is confident that robust processes are in place to avoid conflicts of interest and any potential conflicts are well managed.”

“Mr Power is confident that robust processes are in place to avoid conflicts of interest and any potential conflicts are well managed, she said.

But that may not address the inherent bias in favour of fossil fuels and gas, in particular.

Which brings us back to the fertiliser plant.

The Oswal link and a long litigation

Vikas Rambal is not a household name, though he’s gained some notoriety in Perth over the years, partly due to the activities of his former business partner, Pankaj Oswal, and the messy litigation that has followed in the wake of the two men’s ill-fated Burrup Fertilisers venture.

An engineer, Rambal began his career in Delhi working for Oswal’s father in the fertiliser business, but moved to Perth in 2000 to help the son, Pankaj, expand the company’s business.

The Oswals arrived on the Perth scene with a bang, cutting a swathe through the Perth social scene, in a city where glitz and ostentatious spending are synonymous with success.

Pankaj Oswal was the frontman, the talker, the schmoozer of politicians. Rambal, then 33, was the technical expertise behind the Oswals’ new project.

Together they set up Burrup Fertilisers. Norwegian company Yara took a 30% share as it was to be the main customer of the output of the plant.

But within days of the ribbon cutting, attended by the Western Australian premier in May 2006, the partnership began unravelling in spectacular fashion. Rambal accused Oswal of diverting funds via the offshore structures, and Oswal locked him out of the offices.

Rambal sued in the WA supreme court but settled six months later, giving up his 15% share in Burrup for an undisclosed sum, reported variously to have been $70m or $85m.

The drama reached a climax in 2010 when Oswal and his glamorous wife, Radhika, suddenly left Australia, three days after the ANZ bank and Yara accused him of misusing $150m of company funds for personal expenses and sought to put the company into receivership.

Some of those funds are said to have been poured into a $70m mansion in Peppermint Grove, dubbed the Taj Mahal on the Swan, that the Oswals were midway through building when they fled.

The rest, the ANZ alleged in court, had gone into the family trust ($60m), luxury yachts, private plane charters, a chain of vegetarian restaurants in London and other luxuries.

There is no suggestion that Rambal was implicated in the events after he left the company.

Yara emerged as the owner of the plant, which exports much of its production.

Armed with his $70m-plus payout, Rambal set up Perdaman and began work on his next big project: a $3.5bn fertiliser plant near Collie in south-west WA, announced in 2009.

But there were more problems and litigation along the way too.

The Australian Taxation office pursued Rambal over more than $20m in unpaid taxes. Rambal argued he owed less than $10m. The case was settled out of court in 2016.

The Collie project faltered after Griffin Coal sold its mine to Lanco Infratech which reneged on the 25-year coal supply contract.

Rambal headed to the WA supreme court, claiming damages of $3.5bn. It was settled in April 2013 for $7.5m.

But a fertiliser plant remained an ambition and by 2018 Rambal was again talking up a new $4.5bn mega-project, known as Project Destiny, back at the Burrup peninsula near Karratha, where he and Oswal had built the first plant.

In November 2018 Perdaman announced it had signed a 25-year binding gas deal with Woodside and the environmental impact statement is now on exhibition.

The project will almost certainly meet some objections. There have been growing concerns about the impact of emissions from Yara’s ammonium nitrate production on the world heritage-listed rock art at Burrup, thought to be 50,000 years old.

Whether Perdaman has the financial clout to build not one but two fertiliser plants – Project Destiny and the Narrabri project – is difficult to gauge.

Back at the Covid commission, a spokesman insists the body has an advisory role only, and won’t be deciding on projects.

Under planning norms, the fate of Perdaman’s Project Destiny rests with the WA government. The Narrabri project depends on whether the NSW government approves the Santos gas project and then the Perdaman project.

But these are extraordinary times. A full court press can be expected from the federal government and its ministers who continue to champion gas as the answer to Australia’s energy needs.

In their sights will be the east coast states that have balked at expanding coal seam gas because of its environmental impacts and resistance from farming communities.

The question those concerned at the direction of a post-coronavirus recovery may ask is whether a commission set up by the Coalition will, while delivering the objectives of ensuring the state health systems have the supplies they need and the supermarkets are properly stocked, also pander to the government’s plan.

The early signs are the commission intends to pursue a much wider and contentious agenda of opening up the onshore gas industry, fast tracking an expansion of the petrochemical industry and building pipelines across the nation.