And finally.... here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on today’s stock market action:

Goodnight. GW

Wall Street is holding onto its strong gains too, with the Dow up 820 points or 3.4% at 24,505.

But some of the companies who’ve thrived in the lockdown, such as video streaming service Netflix and video conferencing site Zoom, are missing out on the rally. That’s a clear sign that traders are anticipating a return to more normal economic times.

European stock markets have also posted very strong gains tonight, after a late surge as the Macron-Merkel news hit the wires.

Investors like the sound of a €500bn European Recovery Fund to fund economic reconstruction in parts of the EU most ravaged by Covid-19. Particularly if it comes as grants covered by all EC members (as today’s announcement appears to suggest...)

Here’s the full closing prices:

• German DAX: up 593 points or 5.7% at 11,058
• French CAC: up 220 points or 5.1% at 4,498
• Italian FTSE MIB: up 549 points or 3.2% at 17,401
• Spanish IBEX: up 304 points or 4.7% at 6,779
• UK FTSE 100: up 248 points or 4.29% at 6,048

Edward Moya of OANDA sums up the day:

Many traders had a nice weekend as some normalcy crept back into their lives. The return of German soccer, Nascar, and golf provided many households with some fresh entertainment. The start of the trading week was supposed to have some optimism with the global economic recovery, but no one anticipated this Monday’s start.

Risk appetite is running wild after Moderna’s experimental vaccine showed promising early signs to create an immune-system response might be able to fight off COVID-19. Global equities are roaring higher on vaccine hopes combined with continued major economies reopening, and as the Fed continues to promise more stimulus is coming when it is needed.

With 30 minutes trading to go, the UK’s stock market is sizzling.

The FTSE 100 index is now up 200 points, or 3.6%, back over the 6,000 mark for the first time in nearly a week.

Mining giants, energy companies, travel operators and other consumer-focused firms are leading the rally.

Tech companies and supermarkets, though, are lagging.

The oil price is pushing higher, lifted by hopes that lockdown restrictions will ease in the coming weeks and months.

Brent crude has hit $35 per barrel for the first sime since April 9th, up from $20 per barrel a few weeks ago (before production curbs helped to address chronic oversupply problems).

It’s important to note that Moderna’s phase one trial only included 45 participants (28 in Seattle and 17 in Atlanta, Georgia, according to USA Today).

Today’s results show that everyone tested so far has produced binding antibody levels similar to, or above, patients with Covid-19. These binding antibodies will stick to the virus. That can be a signal to the immune system to destroy the pathogen, but doesn’t actually stop it on its own.

They’re different to neutralising antibodies, which bind to the virus and also prevent it replicating (because they ‘stick’ to the pathogen in a way that neutralises it).

Moderna only has neutralising antibody results for eight participants -- four with small doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine client and four at a larger dose. All eight have shown they do indeed have neutralising antibodies 43 days after injection - at or above levels seen in Covid-19 patients.

That’s encouraging enough for Moderna to press on with larger trials, as CEO Stéphane Bancel explains:

“With today’s positive interim Phase 1 data and the positive data in the mouse challenge model, the Moderna team continues to focus on moving as fast as safely possible to start our pivotal Phase 3 study in July and, if successful, file a BLA [biologics license application].

“We are investing to scale up manufacturing so we can maximize the number of doses we can produce to help protect as many people as we can from SARS-CoV-2.”

Shares in Moderna have jumped by 30% at the start of trading in New York, after the biotech firm reported early signs of progress in its Covid-19 vaccine test.

The broader market is getting a lift too, with Wall Street rising back to last week’s hgihs.

• Dow: up 697 points or 2.95% at 24,383 points
• S&P 500: up 71 points or 2.5% at 2,935 points
• Nasdaq: up 154 points or 1.7% at 9,168 points

Travel company shares are now soaring in London, on hopes that a vaccine breakthrough could, perhaps, help the global economy to emerge from the Covid-19 lockdown sooner than previously feared.

Budget airline easyJet are the top riser on the FTSE 100, up 11.5%, closely followed by cruise operator Carnival (+10%).

Mining companies are also rallying hard, suggesting that investors are slightly more optimistic about global growth prospects. Anglo American (+9%), BHP Group (+8%) and Rio Tinto (+7%) would all benefit from increased demand for iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities if economies recovered strongly from the current slump.

The few losers on the FTSE include supermarket chains Ocado (-1.2%) and Morrisons (-0.4%), whose sales have been boosted by the lockdown (although it’s also driven up their costs and created major supply chain challenges).

Wall Street is going to make a strong start to the week, when trading kicks off in 30 minutes:

Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine appears to be showing “promising early signs”, reckons Bloomberg’s Robert Langreth.

Here’s his take on today’s interim phase one study results:

An experimental vaccine from Moderna Inc. showed promising early signs that it can create an immune-system response in the body that could help fend off the new coronavirus, according to sampling of data from a small, first human trial of the inoculation.

The study was primarily designed to look at the safety of the shot and showed no major warning signs in a small phase 1 trial, the company said in a statement Monday. The trial is being run with the U.S. government, and Moderna plans to continue advancing it to wider testing.

A vaccine is considered a crucial step toward lifting social-distancing measures and safely reopening economies, schools and events around the globe. The new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, has infected more than 4.7 million people and killed over 300,000, spurring a global race by drugmakers, academic institutions and governments to find a vaccine.

More here.

Here are the key points from Moderna’s announcement, of “Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273)” (which is online here).

• After two doses all participants evaluated to date across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts seroconverted with binding antibody levels at or above levels seen in convalescent sera
• mRNA-1273 elicited neutralizing antibody titer levels in all eight initial participants across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts, reaching or exceeding neutralizing antibody titers generally seen in convalescent sera
• mRNA-1273 was generally safe and well tolerated
• mRNA-1273 provided full protection against viral replication in the lungs in a mouse challenge model
• Anticipated dose for Phase 3 study between 25 µg and 100 µg; expected to start in July

Important to remember that this is only an early stage trial, but clearly it’s raising hopes in the markets:

CNBC has more details about Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine, which is driving markets higher:

Moderna’s closely watched early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine produced Covid-19 antibodies in all 45 participants, the biotech company announced Monday, sending the company’s shares surging as much as 30% in premarket trading.

Each participant received a 25 microgram, 100 mcg or 250 mcg dose, with 15 people in each dose group. Study participants received two doses of the potential vaccine via intramuscular injection in the upper arm approximately 28 days apart. Data on a second dose was not available for the 250 mcg group, the company said.

At day 43, or two weeks following the second dose, levels of binding antibodies in the 25 mcg group were at the levels generally seen in blood samples from people who recovered from the disease, the company said. Antibodies in the 100 mcg had antibodies that “significantly exceeded levels” in recovered patients.

The Dow Jones is now on track to jump back over 24,000 points when Wall Street opens in two hours, a gain of around 300 points.

That would be its highest level in nearly a week, helped by Jerome Powell’s pledge that the Fed can take more measures to help the US economy recover.

Some analysts are now wondering whether the Dow can climb back to its record highs of 29,568 hit in February, and beyond, as Marketwatch reports:

Paul Schatz, the president of Heritage Capital, said the Dow could hit 30,000 points by 2021 and 40,000 by 2023 as the U.S. economy recovers over the longer term.

“To bet against the U.S. economy and consumer over the long-term is a loser’s game,” Schatz said in a first quarter note to clients.

“I firmly believe we will see Dow 30,000 in 2021 with Dow 40,000 coming by 2023. Once we get over this massive hurdle, there will be too many things working in favor to derail that train when it gets going.”

The odds of Britain introducing negative interest rates to combat the coranavirus downturn seem to be rising.

Reuters has spotted that interest rate futures contracts from December 2020 have dropped into negative territory, a sign that more traders are betting that UK interest rates would fall below zero this year.

Bank rate is already at a record low, just 0.1%. In comparison, the eurozone’s headline rates is zero, with commercial banks being charged negative interest rates on their bank deposits at the ECB.

The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, has fuelled speculation of further cuts. In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Haldane suggested that pushing interest rates below zero and buying riskier assets couldn’t be ruled out.

As Haldane put it:

“The economy is weaker than a year ago and we are now at the effective lower bound, so in that sense it’s something we’ll need to look at – are looking at – with somewhat greater immediacy.

“How could we not be?”

Haldane also warned that Britain faces a return to unemployment levels seen in the 1980s recession, unless policymakers succeed in “reabsorbing” people into good jobs quickly.

Despite the latest tides of economic gloom, the mood in the markets remains solidly upbeat.

European markets are holding onto their earlier gains, with the Stoxx 600 up 2% today.

In London, the FTSE 100 is still pushing back towards the 6,000 mark - up 127 points at 5927. That means its recovered from last Thursday’s wobble, when anxiety about the global economy sparked a selloff.

Fawad Razaqzada of Think Markets says:

It has been a very optimistic start to the new week with stocks, crude oil, copper, gold and silver all pushing higher this morning with the dollar index being flat. Sentiment has been boosted as many European countries including Spain, Italy and the UK reported the lowest number of Covid-19 related deaths for two months at the weekend and as several countries ease lockdown restrictions.

Also providing a positive backdrop for risk is ongoing expectations for further policy stimulus, which explains why noninterest-bearish precious metals are rising along with stocks, as long-term government bond yields get depressed. These expectations were encouraged by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell when he suggested that the central bank was ‘not out of ammunition’ and could do more if needed.

UK property firm Intu has been forced to ask for a ‘standstill agreement’ from its lenders, after being badly hurt by the coronavirus crisis.

Intu told shareholders this morning that it will probably breach the commitments, or covenants, on its loans.

It is now seeking relief from financial covenant testing, debt amortisation and facility maturity payments, possibly until 31 December 2021.

The company, which owns Lakeside in Essex and the Trafford Centre in Manchester, has suffered a slump in rental payments as many tenants shut down during the lockdown. It was already suffering from problems on the high street - even before Covid-19 struck.

Intu explains:

Significant market uncertainty remains regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the operations of intu’s centres which, with the exception of essential stores, remain semi-closed until at least 1 June 2020. Additionally, at this time, the speed of recovery once the UK comes out of lockdown remains unclear.

The resulting impact on rental collections and valuations at the end of June is likely to result in breaches of covenants or material liquidity requirements if any such breaches are to be cured in accordance with the financing documents at that time.

Budget airline Ryanair has stern words for rivals who have taken financial support from governments to keep afloat through the lockdown.

In its latest financial results, Ryanair predicts a price war from operators who have taken billions of euros in help.

It warns:

When Group airlines return to scheduled flying from July, the competitive landscape in Europe will be distorted by unprecedented quantums of State Aid (in breach of EU rules) under which over €30bn has been gifted to the Lufthansa Group, Air France-KLM, Alitalia, SAS and Norwegian among others.

We therefore expect that traffic on reduced flight schedules will be subject to significant price discounting, and below cost selling, from these flag carriers with huge State Aid war chests.

Shocking stuff. But keep reading the statement, and you see that Ryanair has tapped the UK’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), under which the government helps companies to keep borrowing:

Ryanair’s balance sheet is one of the strongest in the industry with a current cash balance of €4.1bn (Ryanair recently raised £600m under the UK’s CCFF) and 330 unencumbered B737s (77% of owned fleet).

What a difference a month makes.

Four weeks ago, there was panic in the energy markets as the US oil price plunged below zero. With demand slumping, traders feared that a supply glut would overwhelm the system.

As the contract for oil delivery in May ticked towards maturity, US producers found they actually had to pay people to take the crude away.

At the time, some commentators predicted that June’s oil contract would also hit zero. But recent supply cuts seem to have helped, as have recent moves to ease lockdowns.

So a barrel of US oil for delivery next month is now worth $31, up from $15 at the end of last month.

Wall Street is expected to open higher today, helped by Jerome Powell’s latest commitment to take further action to protect America’s economy through the slump.

Several European countries have lifted their ban on short-selling shares, in another sign that the panic created by Covid-19 has eased.

France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Austria and Greece are all scrapping restrictions that prevented traders from selling shares they didn’t own (hoping to buy them back cheaper).

These bans were introduced in March, in an attempt to stem the alarming plunge in across stock markets.

French markets watchdog AMF says the markets are calmer now, although relatively edgy:

“Markets have partly reduced their losses, trading volumes and volatility have returned to levels that are still high compared to mid-February, however this reflects market participants’ uncertainties in the current context

The Covid-19 crisis will drag India into an unprecedented recession, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Goldman’s economists reckon India’s GDP will shrink at an annualised rate of 45% in the current quarter. It had previously predicted a 20% tumble, but has revised its forecasts after India extended its tough lockdown until the end of May.

Growth is expected to rebound sharply in Q3 (by an annualised rate of 20%), but India’s economy is still expected to shrink by 5% during the year.

European markets are a tranquil sea of green this morning, with the main indices up around 2%.

That’s a solid recovery from last week’s dips, which sent stocks to a three-week low.

Investors seem to be more hopeful about the global economic prospects, as governments try to lift lockdown restrictions.

But, the long-term damage of the crisis is unknown, as Barclays economist Christian Keller put it to clients (via Reuters):

“The economies of Europe and the U.S. likely bottomed out in April and are slowly starting to come back to life.

“However, incoming data from most economies highlight the depth of the contraction, raising risks of longer-term scarring that might undermine the recovery.”