Julia Kollewe 

Global stocks hit three-month highs on economic recovery hopes – as it happened

Markets ride on wave of economic optimism and shrug off growing unrest in the US, as China services activity hits 10-year-high
  
  

Group of women at a picnic in park, as lockdown in England is eased.
Group of women at a picnic in park, as lockdown in England is eased. Photograph: Westend61/Getty Images

Closing summary

Global stock markets are marching higher, cheered by better-than-expected economic news in the US, Europe and China which boosted hopes of economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. Markets have shrugged off the growing protests against police brutality in the US after the killing of George Floyd in police custody. The protests have been largely peaceful, despite a forceful police response.

Oil prices also rallied to three-month highs, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, before falling back as doubts crept in over the timing and scale of a potential extension of production cuts agreed between the Opec cartel and its allies.

Gold and silver prices, which rallied at the start of the week amid safe-haven buying, fell, with spot silver down 3% to $17.49 an ounce.

We are closing for the day, and will be back from 8am tomorrow. Good-bye!

Global stocks are extending gains on the news.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 2.14% to 6,352
  • Germany’s Dax up 2.7% to 12,345
  • France’s CAC 40 up 2.48% to 4,979
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 2.99% to 19,537
  • Dow Jones up 0.92% to 25,979
  • Nasdaq up 0.57% to 9,663
  • S&P 500 up 0.78% to 3,104

This compares with 41.8 in April. The UK and European services PMIs were also revised higher, even though they indicated further contraction, while China’s services index jumped to the highest in nearly 10 years and pointed to growth.

US ISM non-manufacturing index better than expected

The closely-watched US non-manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management is out. It’s better than expected at 45.4, inching closer to the 50 mark that divides contraction from expansion.

The US services business activity index from IHS Markit posted 37.5 in May, up from April’s record low of 26.7 and slightly higher than the flash estimate of 36.9. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. This means the downturn in services eased last month as some businesses returned to work, but was still the second-biggest decline since data collection began in October 2009.

We are waiting for the more important ISM survey, out in four minutes.

The opening bell has rung on Wall Street.

  • Dow Jones up 230 points, or 0.9%, at 25,973
  • Nasdaq up 41 points, or 0.4%, at 9,649
  • S&P 500 up 22 points, or 0.7%, at 3,102

The ADP figures come before Friday’s official non-farm payrolls numbers.

ADP says:

The National Employment Report uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the May NER does not reflect the full impact of Covid-19 on the overall employment situation.

Even so, the much smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment in May, by 2.76m, should cheer financial markets. It is another big number, but nowhere near April’s revised figure of 19.6m job losses.

European stock markets continue to march higher. The FTSE 100 index in London is now 1.2% ahead, while Germany’s Dax and Italy’s FTSE MiB have each gained 2.3% and France’s CAC 40 is 1.97% higher.

Large businesses (with 500 or more employees) accounted for the bulk of the job cuts, shedding 1.6m. The service sector was worst affected with almost 2m job losses, and 794,000 factory workers also lost their jobs. You can read the report here.

US jobs report better than feared

The latest US jobs numbers from ADP are out. They show 2.76 million people lost their jobs in the private sector in May, compared with 19.6 million in April, which was the worst in the survey’s history.

Economists had expected up to 9m job losses.

In other travel news, Spain is working on plans to open its borders to tourists from lower-risk Covid-19 countries, possibly as early as 21 or 22 June, according to its tourism ministry.

Spain is due to lift its state of emergency on Sunday, 21 June, and could reopen its borders around that time -- earlier than the previously targeted date of 1 July. Reuters reported a tourism ministry spokesman as saying:

We want to reactivate and accelerate international mobility but starting with areas in epidemiological situations.

Here is our story about Tui’s compensation deal with the US aircraft maker Boeing, Lufthansa’s first-quarter losses and Wizz Air’s full-year profit.

The global MSCI index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, is still trading at a three-month high, up 1.14%.

Stock markets are still pushing higher, lifted by economic optimism.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 63 points, or 1.02%
  • Germany’s Dax up 2.23%
  • France’s CAC 40 up 1.83%
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 2.08%

US stock futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street later. The Dow Jones is seen opening 175 points higher, and the Nasdaq is expected to gain some 33 points at the open.

Updated

The Bank of England has issued a statement following the earlier Sky News report that governor Andrew Bailey has told banks to step up preparations for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit at the end of the transition period on 31 December.

The central bank said:

It is fundamental to the Bank of England’s remit that it prepares the UK financial system for all risks that it might face. In performing that role, the governor meets the leadership of UK banks on a very regular basis. As we have said previously, the possibility that negotiations between the UK and EU over a future trading relationship might not conclude in a deal is one of a number of outcomes that UK banks need to prepare for over the coming months.

Updated

Oil prices are now falling, after rallying to three-month highs earlier. Brent crude is down 1.62% at $38.93 a barrel after rising through $40 a barrel, while US crude has lost 1.77% to $36.16 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and the leader of the Opec oil cartel, and Russia, which is not in Opec, have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to extend the existing record oil production cuts by one month.

Sources told Reuters:

Any agreement on extending the cuts is conditional on countries who have not fully complied in May deepening their cuts in upcoming months to offset their overproduction.

The Opec+ group, which includes Russia, agreed last month to cut output by a record 9.7m barrels a day, equivalent to about 10% of global output.

But there are now doubts as to whether an early meeting of Opec and its allies to extend the production cuts will take place tomorrow, pushing oil prices lower. Bloomberg reported that the meeting won’t happen unless problems around compliance are resolved.

Updated

Zoom, the booming video conferencing firm, reported its first-quarter results last night. My colleague Mark Sweney has taken a closer look.

Zoom may be booming as the global coronavirus lockdown moves work and social life to cyberspace but deep-pocketed rivals including Microsoft, Google and Facebook are taking aim as video conferencing becomes a staple of daily life.

On Tuesday, Zoom, which has been catapulted from a relatively unknown video service to a household name during the coronavirus pandemic, reported first-quarter results that were impressive on almost every measure.

Revenue surged by 169% to $328m (£261m) in the three months to the end of April, prompting the company to double revenue guidance for this year. The number of people attending meetings and gatherings on any one day peaked at 300 million in April. In December it was 10 million a day.

One analyst called Zoom’s results “one of, if not the greatest quarter in enterprise software history” and its share price enjoyed an initial bounce. However, Zoom’s stock dropped in after-hours trading on Tuesday as investors and analysts began to worry about its ability to cope with competitors aiming to muscle in on the video-conferencing boom.

In March, Microsoft, an aggressive competitor against Zoom for paying business customers with Microsoft Teams, announced it is to launch a version of its video-conferencing service for consumers.

The following month, Facebook, the world’s biggest social networking site, introduced a group video-calling feature called Messenger Rooms that prompted a dip in Zoom’s share price. In April, Google announced it was to make Meet, another Zoom competitor in the business video market, available for consumer use.

Updated

The hotel chain Travelodge is expected to launch insolvency proceedings in the form of a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) later today, allowing it to cut its rent by around 40% over the next 18 months, reports my colleague Joanna Partridge.

The 580-hotel chain is owned by investment firms include Goldman Sachs, Avenue Capital and GoldenTree and has £100m in cash reserves. It has been locked in a battle with its landlords since late March when it initially refused to pay rent for the second quarter of the year, and the company is now offering landlords a sweetened deal in a bid to win them over.

Travelodge’s shareholders have pledged to inject up to £40m in new equity, and to raise £100m in new debt. Unlike a traditional CVA, Travelodge’s plan does not propose any hotel closures or job cuts among its 10,000 staff, and the rent reduction will last until the end of 2021.

Updated

Lufthansa posts €2.1bn loss, Tui strikes compensation deal with Boeing

There has also been lots of airline/travel news today. Lufthansa, the German flagship carrier, has posted a massive first-quarter loss of €2.1bn, just days after being bailed out by the German government (which means it will have to give up some of its prized landing slots to rivals).

The company announced a big restructuring, including reducing its Brussels Airlines fleet by 30% and the workforce by 25%, and its Austrian Airlines’ fleet and staff by 20%. Other carriers, such as British Airways and Ryanair, have also announced big job losses as they battle for survival after the coronavirus crisis forced them to ground their fleets.

Some airlines have fared better than others. Wizz Air, the London-listed eastern European airline, reported a net profit of €281m for the year to 31 March. Wizz Air was the first airline to resume flights from London Luton airport and announced it would start flying to Portugal and Greece from mid-June, as well as expanding into new routes in eastern Europe.

Tui, the world’s biggest travel firm, has struck a deal with Boeing to compensate for the grounding of its 737 Max planes, and also agreed a new delivery schedule for the planes, as the tour operator battles through the coronavirus pandemic.

Updated

As reported earlier, Nissan warned again today that its Sunderland manufacturing plant is still under threat if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal.

Sky News is reporting that the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, has told banks to step up their plans for a no-deal Brexit. He held a conference call with the UK’s biggest lenders yesterday.

Britain left the EU on 31 January but is still in a transition period, until the end of December. Both sides began a fourth round of virtual negotiations yesterday to try and hammer out a trade agreement before the end of the year.

The UK wants binding commitments from the EU to secure its finance industry’s access to the bloc, but has met with rejection.

Dollar weakens, sterling climbs

In currency markets, the dollar has weakened further among the unrest across the US, which has benefited other currencies. The euro is set for its seventh day of gains and sterling rose to a one-month high against the dollar.

The pound touched $1.2608, the highest since 30 April, and is now trading at $1.2579, up 0.23%. It got a lift from comments by industry chiefs that Britain and the EU might reach a compromise on fisheries, as the two sides embarked on a fourth round of virtual negotiations on a trade deal.

Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations, said yesterday that he thought “a deal will be done,” although it will probably take until September or October.

However, sterling slipped slightly against the euro today, as Brexit risks remain.

Updated

Eurozone unemployment rose in April

Unemployment went up in April, the second month after Covid-19 containment measures were implemented by most European countries, according to Eurostat figures. The unemployment rate in the eurozone rose to 7.3% from 7.1% in March, while the jobless rate for the whole EU was 6.6% in April, up from 6.4% in March.

Australia in first recession for 29 years

Meanwhile, Australia has entered its first recession for 29 years after the economy shrank by 0.3% in the January to March quarter, with the impact of bushfires and the coronavirus ending the nation’s extraordinary, uninterrupted run of economic growth, writes Katharine Murphy, Guardian Australia’s political editor.

And here is some analysis:

The latest GDP figures released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that in the first three months of this year, Australia’s economy shrank for the first time in nine years and removed any lingering doubt that we are in a recession -- but worse is yet to come, writes economics and politics writer Greg Jericho.

Mid-morning summary

European stock markets are marching higher, buoyed by economic recovery hopes. A private survey for China’s services sector indicated that activity picked up strongly in May, with the PMI rising to a 10-year high. PMI surveys for the UK and the eurozone have also come in stronger than expected, although services and the private sector as a whole continue to shrink.

  • FTSE 100 up 1.3%, or 83 points, at 6,303
  • Germany’s Dax up 1.94% at 12,254
  • France’s CAC 40 up 1.83% at 4,947
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 2.07% at 19,366

Oil prices have hit three-month highs on hopes that demand will increase, with Brent crude up 1.3% to $40.09 a barrel.

Gold and silver have fallen back as safe-haven buying has faded. But the (largely peaceful) protests across the US continue, as thousands of people demand justice for George Floyd, who was killed in police custody last week.

Updated

UK firms cut jobs at the second-fastest pace since the survey began in January 1998, according to Markit, which compiles the PMI with the Chartered Institue of Procurement & Supply (CIPS). Factory and services activity both declined in May, but manufacturing proved a bit more resilient, with the index at 35.0.

Duncan Brock, group director at CIPS, said:

May’s survey data painted a deeply concerning picture of a lockdown slowdown across the service sector as employment dropped at the second fastest rate on record, pipelines of new work were woefully empty and business confidence continued to suffer.

As the pandemic progressed any hoped-for bounceback in business output never really got going in May following the previous month’s awful results, though a modicum of recovery will offer small respite in some sectors. Pockets of trading began again as firms began adapting to social distancing measures, though only 15% of companies reported a rise in new orders this month.

In this aggressively unsympathetic marketplace, supply chain managers voiced their concerns that any significant improvement is unlikely to happen at least in the medium term. As supply chains began to awaken from their deep slumber, continuing logistics challenges increased costs for some firms though reduced wage bills helped to alleviate the pressure.

As restrictions are eased, there is still extreme uncertainty about how the pandemic will pan out. Continued anxiety about the coronavirus means consumer spending may not be the wind beneath the sails of any immediate return to pre-virus economic activity.

Updated

UK economic decline eases in May - PMI

The UK’s final services PMI reading for May is 29.0, better than the flash estimate of 27.8 and up from April’s nadir of 13.4... but it’s still far below the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction.

Markit, which compiled the survey, says:

Just over half of the survey panel (54%) reported a drop in business activity during May, while only 13% signalled an increase. Those indicating a decrease in output since April often commented on a severe lack of new business to replace work that had been completed after the lockdown, following deep cutbacks to corporate spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

There were some reports that the gradual reopening of the UK economy, especially the construction sector, had a positive impact on client demand. Other service providers commented on a tentative revival in business conditions following the initial shock of the lockdown period.

The composite output index, which pulls together manufacturing and services, rose to 30.0 in May, better than the flash estimate of 28.9 and up from April’s record low of 13.8.

Updated

Eurozone PMI rises in May but still signals severe contraction

The eurozone as a whole has recovered somewhat from April’s nadir, but remains deep in negative territory.

  • Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 31.9 (Flash: 30.5, April Final: 13.6)
  • Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 30.5 (Flash: 28.7, April Final: 12.0)

Italy, France and Spain were at three-month highs in May, according to the composite PMIs for the private sector, while Germany reached a two-month high.

The German services PMI, at 32.6, is also better than the flash estimate and up from April’s record low of 16.2. But the unemployment rate in Europe’s biggest economy has gone up to 6.3%, more than the expected 6.2%.

Updated

And here is France. Its services PMI for May comes in at 31.1, up from 10.2 in April and higher than the flash estimate of 30.5.

The composite index, capturing the private sector, is at 32.1, also up from the flash estimate and April’s 11.1.

Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit said:

Following April’s record decline, the latest PMI data pointed to a further contraction in French private sector business activity during May. Given the low likelihood of businesses being open in April but closed in May, the latest reduction in output reflects the deteriorating demand conditions that firms now face.

That said, rates of activity decline at both manufacturers and service providers did ease in May, and we should expect this trend to continue as more and more firms reopen for business. Although we might see further contractions while demand remains subdued, PMI figures should continue to climb in the months ahead barring a second outbreak.

The Italian services PMI has risen to 28.9 from April’s record low of 10.8 in the final reading, slightly better than expected, but still pointing to a sharp decline in activity in the eurozone’s third-largest economy.

The composite output index posted 33.9 in May, to signal a further substantial contraction in Italian private sector output, albeit up from April’s nadir of 10.9. Services saw the sharpest decline, with manufacturers registering only a modest drop in output.

Lewis Cooper, economist at IHS Markit said:

The Covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns continued to weigh heavily on the performance of the Italian service sector during May, with further substantial reductions in both business activity and new orders. With the economy beginning to reopen and restrictions loosening, however, the falls softened from April’s records.

Meanwhile, job cuts continued, with staff numbers falling at the second-quickest rate on record. Firms registered renewed optimism with regards to activity over the year ahead, but sentiment remained among the lowest in the series history.

A similar trend was seen in the manufacturing sector, where the downturn continued, albeit at a softer pace. Nonetheless, the Italian economy remains in an extremely challenging period. Preliminary GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2020 recorded a decline approaching 5% on a quarterly basis, and PMI data for the second quarter so far point to another considerable contraction.

Updated

Gold and silver fall as stocks rise to near-three-month high

Gold and silver prices are falling as global stocks are trading close to three-month highs. Both precious metals had enjoyed a rally last week and on Monday as some investors looked for safe-haven investments amid the protests in the US and continuing trade tensions between the US and China.

Spot gold slipped 0.37% to $1,720 an ounce, after declining 0.7% on Tuesday. Silver fell 1.6% to $17.79, after hitting its highest level since 25 February on Monday.

The dollar has also weakened, with the dollar index falling 0.36% to a two-month low.

On the markets, the FTSE 100 index has extended its gains and is trading more than 1% higher at 6,286, up 65 points.

Germany’s Dax is 1.1% ahead at 12,153, France’s CAC 40 has added 1.2% to 4,917 and Italy’s FTSE MiB has posted an even stronger gain of 1.5%,to 19,254.

Spain’s Ibex rose more than 1% in early trading but is now only 0.68% ahead at 7,458 after the latest services and private sector surveys, which confirmed the economy recovered from April’s trough, but remained very weak.

Paul Smith, economics director at IHS Markit said:

Despite the easing of lockdown measures, economic activity in Spain remained severely curtailed during May. Whilst rising markedly from the extreme readings of April, latest PMI readings remain considerably low and confirm that the Spanish economy will likely experience a contraction in second quarter GDP pushing towards double digits.

Updated

Spain’s final PMI readings for May from IHS Markit for the country’s services industries and the private sector as a whole are out.

They are slightly better than the flash estimates, but still indicate sharp contractions, as they are far below the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction.

Markit says the two weakest sectors within services remained hotels and restaurants and transport and storage.

Updated

As Brexit talks have resumed this week, Nissan is warning that its Sunderland manufacturing plant is still under threat if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, my colleague Mark Sweney writes.

Last week, Nissan said that the UK’s largest car manufacturing plant would stay open as it announced plans to cut £2.3bn in costs worldwide. However, the carmaker has said it would need to “improve efficiency” at the factory in the north-East of England, which employs 6,700 staff.

Today, Ashwani Gupta, the Japanese company’s global chief operating officer, warned that with the European Union Sunderland factory’s biggest customer the tariffs that would come with a no-deal Brexit would mean manufacturing in Britain would not be viable.

“You know we are the number one carmaker in the UK and we want to continue,” he told the BBC. “We are committed. Having said that, if we are not getting the current tariffs, it’s not our intention but the business will not be sustainable. That’s what everybody has to understand.”

Updated

And we are off.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 0.9%
  • Germany’s Dax up 1.1%
  • France’s CAC 40 up 1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex up 1%

Updated

Introduction: Markets ride on wave of economic optimism

Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, eurozone and business

Markets are still riding on a wave of economic optimism, boosted by a strong survey of China’s services sector, which hit a near-10-year high last month.

The Caixin China services purchasing managers index (PMI), a private survey, jumped to 55.0 in May from 44.4 in April, above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, after falling below 50 for three months because of the coronavirus pandemic.

It is the highest reading since late 2010. New orders also recorded their biggest increase since September 2010 as demand from within China recovered. The services sector makes up about 60% of China’s economy.

This has boosted stock markets in Asia and is also expected to spill over into Europe. Japan’s Nikkei rose to its highest level since February and closed 1.29% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.32% and South Korea’s Kospi added 2.87%, after the South Korean government proposed its biggest stimulus package yet.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.3%, hitting a three-month high and taking the gain from its trough on 23 March to almost 36%.

Over here, the FTSE 100 index in London is expected to open 60 points higher and Germany’s Dax is being called 125 points higher.

Global stocks have so far shrugged off the growing unrest in the US after the killing of George Floyd, along with simmering trade tensions between the US and China. Despite protests sweeping across US states, night time curfews and president Donald Trump calling for the military to intervene, US markets closed at their highest level in three months yesterday.

Oil prices are also rallying, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, rising 1.84% to $40.30 a barrel. Earlier, it hit $40.53, the highest since early March, after gaining 3.3% on Tuesday. US light crude gained 2.7% to $37.82 a barrel. Oil prices have been boosted in recent weeks by growing evidence that China’s economy is recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the easing of lockdowns around the world. This suggests demand for oil will pick up.

On the economic data front, we’ll be getting final readings for the services and composite PMI surveys in the eurozone and UK this morning, as well as unemployment rates for Germany, the EU and the eurozone.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says:

The biggest worry remains around Spain and Italy who rely so much on tourism in their services sector, and whose recovery is likely to be slow and painful, as tourists stay away. The recent flash numbers from France, Germany and the UK saw improvements from a record lows in April to 29.4, 31.4 and 27.8 respectively.

The Agenda

  • 8:15am-8:55am BST Spain/Italy/France/Germany Markit Final services and composite PMIs (May)
  • 8:55am BST: German unemployment rate (April) (Forecast: 6.2%)
  • 9am BST: Eurozone Markit Final Services and composite PMIs (May) (Forecast: 28.7 / 30.5)
  • 9:30am BST: UK Markit Final services and composite PMIs (May) (Forecast: 28 / 28.9)
  • 10am BST: Eurozone unemployment rate (April) (forecast: 8.2%)
  • 1:15 BST: US ADP Payrolls report
  • 2:45pm BST: US Markit Final services and composite PMIs (May) (Forecast: 36.9 / 36.4)
  • 3pm BST: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) and factory orders

Updated

 

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