Closing summary
While Asian markets rose for a ninth session, stock markets across Europe and the US are a sea of red, ahead of the two-day Fed meeting. The losses come after a strong first week in June, and a stellar day for US stocks yesterday.
A collapse in German and French trade appears to have sparked the sell-off, and news that the eurozone shrank by 3.6% in the first quarter, rather than 3.8% as initially thought, did little to calm nerves. It was still the worst decline on record, and the detail revealed that household spending, investment and exports all plummeted by more than 4% between January and March. Some analysts warn that the second quarter will be even worse.
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow.
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Connor Campbell, financial analyst at trading platform Spreadex, says:
All this comes after a stellar Monday session in the US, one that saw the Nasdaq hit an all-time high and the Dow Jones reach a 15-week peak.
Those long- and short-term records, however, may well have inspired Tuesday’s losses. Investors might be questioning the wisdom of such highs in a world still very firmly in the middle of a pandemic.
Wall Street falls ahead of Fed meeting
Wall Street has fallen at the open, ahead of the Fed meeting.
- Dow Jones is down 355 points, or 1.92%, at 27,217
- Nasdaq down 58 points, or 0.59%, at 9,866
- S&P 500 down 34 points, or 1.08%, at 3,197
Over here, the sell-off in stocks has gathered pace. The FTSE is down 2% while Germany’s Dax has lost 1.66%, France’s CAC has slid 1.5% and Italy’s FTSE MiB is 1.75% lower.
Gold – regarded as a safe-haven investment – is climbing for a second day, as stock markets are sliding. Spot gold gained 1.2% to $1,715 an ounce.
Last Friday, gold fell to $1,670, the lowest level in more than a month, after the surprise 2.5m jump in US jobs in May sparked a strong rally in stocks.
However, other precious metals are not in demand – silver lost 1.4% and palladium was down 5.05%. Palladium is used in autocatalysts and demand from the car industry has fallen because of the coronavirus crisis.
Airline industry headed for $100bn loss in 2020/21 - Iata
The global airline industry is heading for losses of $84bn in 2020– the “worst year in the history of aviation”– according to the main international industry body. The coronavirus pandemic forced airlines around the world to ground their fleets.
The International Air Transport Association has updated its forecasts and predicted a further $15.8bn loss next year, taking total losses caused by the pandemic to $100bn. Iata believes that air traffic will be slow to recover and airlines will have to slash their fares to lure back passsengers.
Iata is predicting that passenger numbers will rise 55% next year but still remain 29% below last year’s level.
It argues that making wearing face masks mandatory on board and other safety measures will be enough to ensure a safe return to flying. The UK government’s 14-day quarantine for international air arrivals took effect yesterday, but Iata director general Alexandre de Juniac said:
These measures should give governments the confidence to open borders without quarantine measures.
Gareth Baker, energy partner at the law firm Gowling WLG, says:
With the continuing reduction in commercial and industrial demand caused by COVID-19, combining with high wind speeds and sunny days, coal was always going to be the loser in our energy mix. Whilst this is part of a long-term trend, the system has coped with the substantial increase in renewable generation remarkably well.
The next challenge is how the network balances and manages intermittency and energy storage has to become a substantial part of the solution.
In a more positive milestone, Britain will tomorrow reach two consecutive months without using electricity from coal-fired power stations for the first time since the industrial revolution in the 19th century, according to the National Grid, Reuters reports.
Britain opened its first coal plant in the 1880s and coal became the main source of electricity over the next century. But coal plants emit almost double the amount of carbon dioxide (which is blamed for global warming) as gas-fired power plants, and use of (near) zero carbon sources such as wind and solar is steadily growing.
The UK intends to shut its coal plants by 2024 as part of efforts to hit its net zero emissions goal by 2050.
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France also released trade data this morning. Exports fared even worse than in Germany, falling by 32% in April from March, compared with a 25% drop in imports.
However, business surveys from the Banque de France showed a rebound in sentiment in industry, services and construction in May, roughly offsetting a third of the loss recorded since February, noted Oxford Economics analyst Moritz Degler.
Turning to the eurozone GDP figures, he said:
With lockdowns only introduced around mid-March and extended through April and some of May in most countries, it is clear that Q2 growth will be hit much harder than Q1. We expect eurozone GDP to decline 11% q/q in Q2 before starting to recover in Q3.
The Fed will issue economic forecasts for the first time since December at the end of its meeting tomorrow, but is not expected make any major policy announcements.
The central bank’s policy makers will discuss the unexpectedly strong employment data released last Friday, which showed a surprise gain of more than 2.5m jobs last month while the unemployment rate fell.
The Covid-19 pandemic prompted the Fed to cut interest rates to near zero and to launch a number of credit programmes to prop up the economy at emergency meetings in March, but no major moves are expected tomorrow. It will release its policy statement at 2pm EDT (7pm BST), followed by a news conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell.
Morning summary
Back in the markets, things are looking less rosy. Europe’s main stock markets in Germany, France and Italy have fallen more than 2% and the UK’s FTSE 100 is down 1.8%. US stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street later, bringing the recent rally to an end ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting.
Oil prices are also sliding, dragged down by a stronger dollar and oversupply worries after a trio of Gulf producers said they would end voluntary output cuts. Brent crude has lost 1.89% to $40.03 a barrel and US light crude has fallen 2.49% to $37.24.
The Opec oil cartel, along with Russia and other producers, a group known as Opec+, on Saturday agreed to extend record production cuts of 9.7m barrels a day until the end of July. But it then emerged that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates would not extend extra cuts of 1.18m barrels per day they are currently making on top of the Opec+ target.
Sterling has fallen below $1.27 as the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, and amid continued Brexit uncertainty.
The eurozone shrank by 3.6% in the first quarter, less than first thought but nonetheless the worst contraction on record. Household spending, investment and exports all plummeted because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
German trade data for April were grim, showing a 24% slump in exports and a sharp decline in the country’s trade surplus to €3.2bn in April from €12.8bn in March.
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Customers of the holiday letting company that owns Hoseasons and Cottages.com have reason to be cheerful. Vacation Rentals has agreed to give customers refunds for stays that were cancelled because of the coronavirus crisis, after it was reported to the competition watchdog, Joanna Partridge reports.
Vacation Rentals, which has a range of holiday brands and accommodation websites, including Welcome Cottages and Landal GreenParks, had originally refused to give money back to customers.
The outlook for UK jobs is the gloomiest in almost three decades, according to the latest employment survey by recruitment firm ManpowerGroup, writes my colleague Joanna Partridge.
It found that companies in all big sectors of the economy are more likely to cut jobs than to hire people over the next three months, from July to September, the weakest forecast since records began in 1992.
The survey comes as companies prepare to start weaning themselves off the government’s furlough scheme, which covers the wage bill of almost 9 million workers.
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said the impact of the coronavirus pandemic had not yet been felt in that period.
The share of mortgages advanced to borrowers requiring a loan-to-value greater than 90% was 5.2%, an increase on the previous year, illustrating the level of demand for high LTV deals.
With lenders including Accord, Clydesdale and Virgin Money pulling out of the 90% LTV market this week owing to high demand, after only recently returning when physical valuations were once again allowed, there is clearly a need for the big lenders to commit to this market.
The number of people taking out high LTV mortgages in the second quarter is likely to fall considerably, not due to lack of demand but lack of products available.
The latest mortgage lending data from the Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority showed:
- The outstanding value of all residential mortgages loans was £1,509bn at the end of 2020 Q1, 3.9% higher than a year earlier.
- The value of gross mortgage advances in 2020 Q1 was £65.8bn, 3.8% higher than in 2019 Q1.
- The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) was 6.1% higher than a year earlier, at £67.6bn.
Back in the UK, the government saw near-record demand for its new 30-year bond. It sold £9bn of the October 2050 gilts, which pay a coupon of 0.625%.
It received more than £70bn in demand, not far off the record £84bn in orders last month when it sold a new 10-year gilt, Reuters reported.
While the eurozone GDP number is slightly better than expected, European stock markets continue to slide after last week’s rally.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index down 92 points, or 1.4%
- Germany’s Dax down 2.o8%
- France’s CAC down 1.89%
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 1.89%
US stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street later. The Dow futures are down about 1% while the Nasdaq futures are 0.5% lower.
The number of people employed fell by 0.2% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, marking the first decline since the spring of 2013, according to Eurostat figures.
France, Italy and Spain were the worst hit economies, the GDP stats show.
The sharpest declines were in trade, transport, hotels and restaurants, followed by the arts and entertainment industries. Agriculture posted the smallest fall, of 0.8%.
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Eurozone GDP falls 3.6% in Q1
Sharp declines in household spending and investment dragged down economic growth in the eurozone in the first quarter, but the fall was slightly smaller than previously estimated.
Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, said eurozone GDP fell 3.6% from the previous quarter between January and March, compared with its initial estimate of a 3.8% decline. Even so, it was the biggest decline ever recorded. GDP in the EU fell by 3.2%, also the biggest fall on record.
Household spending plunged 4.7% in the eurozone as shops, restaurants, cafes and bars shut because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Investment fell 4.3% and exports were down 4.2%.
UK state-backed loans to firms rise
Small firms in Britain have borrowed nearly £24bn under a government scheme that offers 100% state guarantees for banks providing the loans – more than other Covid-19 support schemes.
According to figures from the Treasury, total lending under the Bounce Back Loan Scheme rose to £23.8bn by 7 June from £21.3bn by 31 May. Some 782,246 firms benefited.
Businesses borrowed £9.6bn under the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS), which carries an 80% government guarantee, up from £8.9bn.
The number of jobs furloughed in the UK rose to 8.9m from 8.7m, and employers claimed £19.6bn under the job retention scheme, up from £17.5bn a week earlier.
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Sterling falls below $1.27
Sterling is sliding against the dollar and the euro. After hitting a new three-month high of $1.2757 overnight, it fell below $1.27 against the dollar. Following eight days of gains, the pound is now trading around $1.2633, down 0.7%.
The dollar is pushing higher against a basket of currencies. Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Commerzbank, told Reuters:
Sterling is highly sensitive to these changes in risk sentiment – it’s a more risky currency than it was a couple of months ago and some years ago.
Markets are waiting for more news on the easing of lockdown measures in the UK. Uncertainty about Brexit is also weighing on the currency. A fourth round of trade talks between the UK and the EU finished with both sides saying little progress had been made. The UK has until the end of July to request an extension to the transition period, which is due to expire after 31 December.
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European stock markets are extending losses.
- UK’s FTSE 100 down 1.6%, or 102 points, at 6,370
- Germany’s Dax down 1.25%
- France’s CAC down 1.39%
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 2.07%
Oil prices are heading lower as well. Brent crude has lost 30 cents to $40.54 a barrel, a 0.6% drop, while US light crude is 35 cents lower at $37.84, a 0.9% decline.
Relief that the Opec oil cartel and its allies extended production cuts into July has given way to disappointment that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, along with the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, hasn’t committed to extra supply cuts.
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The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is down 0.27%, dragged lower by banking stocks, which have fallen 4% after six days of gains.
In London, British American Tobacco, down 2.4%, is weighing on the FTSE 100. The maker of Dunhill and Lucky Strike cigarettes cut its annual profit and revenue forecasts this morning. It pointed to longer-than-expected Covid-19 lockdowns in South Africa, Mexico and Argentina, and said sales had also been hit by the pandemic in countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Faced with a long-term decline in traditional cigarette sales, the world’s second-biggest tobacco group is pushing into vapour and oral products such as moist snuff, but said some new product launches had been delayed. It now aims to achieve £5bn in sales from these new categories in 2025, rather than 2023-24.
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European indices in the red
All major European indices are now in the red.
- UK’s FTSE 100 down 48 points, or 0.75%, at 6,425
- Germany’s Dax down 0.6% at 12,736
- France’s CAC 40 down 0.3% at 5,157
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 1.8% at 19,867
- Spain’s Ibex down 1.05% at 7,812
Bellway, one of the UK’s biggest housebuilders, said that it sold 6,721 homes between the start of August and the end of May, nearly 1,000 fewer than in the year-earlier period. Its shares fell nearly 3%.
Like other builders, the company temporarily shut its sites at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, but work has restarted on 230 sites and all sales offices reopened on 1 June.
Productivity is reduced (because of physical distancing and other safety rules) and work is still limited to homes which are nearing completion. Bellway expects to slowly increase the number of completions through the late summer and autumn months.
Its order book comprises 6,038 homes, down slightly from 6,312 homes this time last year, although the value has edged up to £1.57bn. Bellway’s bigger rival Taylor Wimpey said last week it saw interest from customers surge when its sales centres and show homes reopened.
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Germany’s Dax has dipped into negative territory while the FTSE 100 in London is down nearly 30 points, or 0.45%, at 6,443.
Germany’s Ifo institute says that 24% of companies it polled needed liquidity aid in May to help them get through the coronavirus crisis, the same proportion as in April.
European shares are mixed at the open. The FTSE 100 index in London is down some 15 points, or 0.2%, at 6,458, and Spain’s Ibex also slipped 0.2%. Germany’s Dax is up 0.3%, France’s CAC gained 0.2% and Italy’s FTSE MiB has opened 0.16% higher.
The only upside from this morning’s German trade numbers is that in terms of monthly economic data, the worst should now be behind us, says Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone and global economist at ING.
In the midst of the financial crisis, it took German exports five months to shrink by a total of 26%. In the Covid-19 crisis it only took the month of April to get practically the same result. In March and April, exports have now shrunk by almost 36%. The export sector is probably the most exposed to the crisis, suffering from the domestic lockdown measures as much as from lockdowns across the world and supply chain disruptions.
Looking ahead, while April was the worst month ever in terms of most economic data releases, the month of May could become one of the best months ever.
With the worst now behind us, things will start to brighten. In past recoveries, the German economy could always count on exports to kickstart the recovery. After the 2008/9 crisis, it was the Asian countries and strong demand for German investment goods which helped the German economy to overcome the recession swiftly. This time around, the economy will have to look to something other than exports to stimulate growth.
Introduction: Asian shares extend gains
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets and business.
The main European markets finished lower yesterday while Wall Street had a bullish day, after the much better-than-expected US jobs report on Friday added to growing economic optimism.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq set a new record close, up 1.1% to 9,924.74, the Dow Jones rose 1.7% and the S&P 500 index gained 1.2%. The S&P 500 is now slightly ahead for the year.
In Asia, the Australian stock market jumped 2.4% (it was closed yesterday), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.77% and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.48%. Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend, falling 0.38%. Asian stocks, as measured by MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, rose for the ninth session in a row, adding 0.28%.
Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in Europe.
Last night Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve, set out the strategy for the Main Street Lending facility that will provide loans to small and medium-sized firms, noted David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK. He said the scheme is “days away” from issuing its first loans. The minimum loan size has halved to $250,000, while the maximum loan size might be set at $300m, higher than $200m previously. The repayment period has been extended to five years from four.
Oil prices fell by over 3% yesterday reversing earlier gains when it emerged that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait will not be committing to any extra production cuts, after the Opec oil cartel and its allies extended previous deep production cuts into July. Oil is up again this morning: Brent crude is trading 0.76% higher at $41.11 a barrel while US light crude is 1.1% ahead at $38.61.
German trade data for April this morning were grim, with a 24% monthly slump in exports in April, at the height of the coronavirus crisis. Germany’s trade surplus shrank much more than expected, to €3.2bn from €12.8bn in March, as imports dropped less than exports, by 16.5%.
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde defended the central bank’s enormous stimulus package yesterday before the European parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee. Madden says:
The central banker was under attack from some EU lawmakers who fear for the rising debt levels of many eurozone nations. Ms Lagarde claimed the colossal stimulus package was proportionate to the size of the crisis facing the currency bloc. The update was a fine example of the ECB’s willingness to keep the show on the road at all costs.
The Agenda
- 9:30am BST: Bank of England/FCA mortgage lending for Q1
- 9:30am BST: UK Treasury committee hearing on Covid-19 economic impact with Resolution Foundation, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Government
- 10am BST: Eurozone GDP final estimate for Q1 (forecast: -3.8% quarterly)
- 3:30pm BST: Jon Cunliffe speech at Investment Association
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