The latest jobs data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals that while work for teenagers has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, overall, the recovery has stalled. Victorian jobs have fallen, and other states are showing little sign of improvement through July.

When looking at economic data it is very easy to become depressed so let us begin with a bit of good news – at least some “relatively” good news.

Over in America right now the Republican National Convention is featuring speakers boasting about their record job recovery, and all the while ignoring the record job falls.

But their boasting looks even less impressive when compared with Australia. The percentage of adults employed in both countries is testament to the importance of avoiding as much as possible economic recessions and also that jobkeeper, for all its many faults, has enabled a higher number of people to remain employed than otherwise would have been the case.

Right now just 55% of adult Americans are in work – a level that last occurred in the late 1940s. By contrast, nearly 60% of adult Australian are employed – even if a much higher percentage now are underemployed than previously was the case.

But while Australia’s fall was not so great, that does not mean the recovery is going to be easy, and the latest job estimates from the ABS highlight just how tough the road back is going to be.

The good news is that as with all previous releases, because of more available data, we find that things were not as bad as previously estimated.

But that good news does not hide the reality that the number of jobs has fallen for both men and women since early July.

Now clearly the overriding reason for this has been the shutdown in Victoria. Since 11 July, jobs in Victoria have fallen 2.8% – much greater than New South Wales’ fall of 0.7%.

Victoria has now easily suffered more job losses since the pandemic hit in early March than any other state.

But the problem is we cannot just carve out Victoria and suggest all is well elsewhere. One problem is that Victoria’s economy has a large impact on the rest of the nation. Businesses in other states rely on business in Victoria. When it shuts down – or the borders close – so too do business in those other states.

During July there was tepid growth at best outside of Victoria, and in NSW and the ACT jobs fell.

One of the more striking aspects of the job numbers is just how well work for teenagers has recovered.

The ABS now estimates that the number of jobs for teenagers is essentially back to where it was prior to the pandemic, while at the same time the number of jobs for workers over the retirement age has plummeted.

The recovery of jobs for younger workers is the most striking aspect of these latest figures. All other ages have yet to recover more than half of the jobs that were lost at the lowest point of the pandemic.

It reflects that much of the recovery is currently directed towards work that is mostly casual or part-time and low pay.

While it is nice that teenagers have their jobs back (although obviously this has not happened in Victoria), they make up just 6% of the entire labour force and just 1.5% of all full-time employees.

Teenagers are generally the first to be cut in a recession, but their recovery is not a sign that things are improving and that other work will soon follow. More it is a sign that what is recovering fastest is the most insecure type of work.

Overall the national figures are bad – things look to be getting worse. This is mostly due to Victoria. And yet even without Victoria things are at best merely not getting worse.

We still have more than halfway to go to fully recover from the massive fall that occurred in March and April.

States like South Australia and Western Australia have recovered better than the rest, but until Victoria and NSW are once again relatively open, the last half of the recovery has no hope of being achieved.