Graeme Wearden 

Pound volatility jumps ahead of crunch Brexit talks – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

The skyline of the City of London.
The skyline of the City of London. Photograph: Victoria Jones/PA

And finally....

The pound has now dropped back to its opening levels against the US dollar, but is still higher against the euro tonight.

With the dollar strengthening against other currencies, sterling has slid back to $1.337 - up 0.15% - having been a whole cent higher at lunchtime.

Sterling is still up against the euro tonight, though, at €1.108, up almost half a eurocent today.

But it’s the jump in implied volatility today that tells the story - investors are braced for the pound to swing wildly, if there’s a breakthough (or a blow-up) over dinner in Brussels.

Our Politics Liveblog reports that Johnson is on his way, and expected to hold a short meeting with European commission president Ursula von der Leyen before dinner at 7.30pm UK time.

We’ll be back with the financial reaction tomorrow morning (and the UK GDP figures for October!). Goodnight. GW

Back in the US stock markets, food delivery service DoorDash has made a spectacular debut.

Shares in DoorDash have surged almost 80% after it floated today. The stock was priced at $102, but has rocketed over $180 in early trading as traders try to grab a piece of a company which has done well in the pandemic.

Bloomberg reports:

“The massive first-day jump -- which could be the third biggest this year in an already white-hot IPO market -- gives DoorDash a fully diluted value of about $68.4 billion. That includes outstanding shares, employee stock options and restricted stock units detailed in its filings.

With a current market capitalization of about $58 billion -- excluding those additional shares -- DoorDash is bigger than companies including Kraft Heinz Co., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Ford Motor Co.”

Remarkable. A sign that tech stocks are still hot, or that ultraloose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus hopes are driving asset prices to crazy levels? Perhaps both....

Updated

Time for one more chart! Professor Costas Milas of University of Liverpool has shown how political uncertainty is bad for the pound.

He’s plotted the sterling exchange rate index against UK economic policy uncertainty (based on coverage of in about 650 UK newspapers), and explains:

There is a negative (albeit not very strong) correlation (equal to -0.34).

Uncertainty has spiked during the Brexit Referendum and immediately afterwards therefore hammering sterling (which lost up to 13% relative to its 4-year rolling average).

Currently, policy uncertainty remains below the early months of the premiership of Boris Johnson which is why we don’t observe a huge pressure on sterling; in fact, as we speak, sterling remains about 0.2% above its 4-year rolling average. One must hope that this is not going to change following Boris’s trip to Brussels to make ‘one last throw of the dice’ in Brexit talks.

Labour criticises lifting of US tariffs in Boeing-Airbus dispute.

The opposition Labour Party has criticised the UK government’s decision to suspend retaliatory tariffs against the US in the Boeing-Airbus dispute.

Emily Thornberry MP, Labour’s Shadow International Trade Secretary, fears that London is abandoning Airbus (a major manufacturer) and UK firms such as whisky makers who face tariffs at the US border under the dispute -- in the hope of a quick post-Brexit trade deal with the US.

Thornberry says:

“Whatever long-term hopes of a US trade deal may lie behind this announcement, and whatever the truth about the legal advice the government has received, the immediate facts and consequences are clear.

“Liz Truss is unilaterally capitulating in a dispute caused in part by unlawful US subsidies, even while those subsidies are - in the words of her own statement - continuing to cause significant harm to Airbus, a vital business and employer for our country.

“She is doing so with no apparent guarantees that the harm being done to Airbus will come to an end any time soon, and with no public assurances from Washington that punitive US tariffs on Scotch whisky and other UK exports will be removed in response.

“We are therefore left to hope against all prior evidence that the government knows what it is doing, because on the surface of this announcement, Liz Truss is leaving Airbus, the Scotch Whisky industry, and their thousands of employees totally undefended in this dispute, while receiving absolutely nothing from the US in return.”

Simon Gleeson, a partner at tax and advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, is struck by the timing of the move -- just before tonight’s Brexit talks:

“its intriguing that just hours before the UK and the EU meet to discuss Brexit in Brussels that the UK has tabled a willingness to break ranks with the EU and the £3billion of tariffs imposed on American products.”

He added: “The UK are making it very clear to the Americans that they wish to drop the tariffs imposed on the United States as soon as they can and come to a trading arrangement as soon as possible.”

Full story: Cost of shipping goods to UK soars amid Covid pandemic

Jams at ports and problems in the global shipping industry have caused the cost of shipping goods to the UK to soar in the run-up to Christmas, my colleague Jasper Jolly reports:

Executives in freight services companies said they have seen prices for containers from mainland China triple or even quadruple in the course of a few months.

A 40ft container from China to northern Europe that might have cost $1,500 (£1,100) six weeks ago was quoted at £9,000 on Wednesday morning, one person said. Another said the price of a 20ft container had risen from $800 in the summer to $3,200 now.

The price hikes, which are evident across the world, have been caused in part by disruption from the coronavirus pandemic, which has shifted production schedules and demand while playing havoc with factory supply chains.

David Madden of CMC Markets says trade uncertainty is still hanging over European markets tonight, ahead of tonight’s dinner in Brussels.

The future trading relationship between the UK and the EU remains in focus and even though the situation is not looking overly optimistic at the moment, stock markets in Europe are a little higher.

The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will have dinner this evening with Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the EU Commission, and that has been the talk of the town today. The individuals haven’t sat down yet and already there has been chatter that a deal is not expected to be announced at tomorrow’s EU summit. Yesterday, the UK removed the controversial components from the internal markets bill and that was received well by politicians and traders as it should help greatly with potential problems with respect to Northern Ireland. That being said, the Irish government is not too hopeful of a deal being secured, and the French hold a similar position.

Updated

European stock markets have also closed, with a rather mixed performance.

Although Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, France’s CAC dropped by 0.25% and Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.4%.

Updated

After hitting a nine-month high this morning, the FTSE 100 index has dipped back and closed just 5 points higher at 6564.

Takeaway firm Just Eat was the top riser, gaining 7%. Earlier today it outlined plans to create a new agency worker model for couriers, giving 1,000 UK workers benefits including hourly wages, sick pay and pension contribution.

Utility companies, supermarkets, and consumer cyclical firms like retailers also rallied, but pharmaceutical stocks and miners dropped.

US oil stocks rise unexpectedly

America’s stocks of crude oil have jumped unexpectedly, knocking the oil price down.

Crude inventories rose by 15.2 million barrels in the week to 2nd December, up to 503.2m barrels. Analysts had expected a small drop, of around 1.4m barrels.

The build-up was mainly caused by a fall in exports, implying that demand was weaker than expected.

It’s the biggest jump since April, when the oil market was hit by a glut during the pandemic.

Oil has now erased its early gains - with US crude trading at $45.40 per barrel, from over $46 earlier.

Over in a cold, quiet Brussels itself, there’s little interest in tonight’s crunch dinner among the locals.

Indeed, they sound rather weary of the whole Brexit saga (and who can blame them?), as my colleague Jon Henley reports, chillily:

It may have been billed as the dinner that will decide the fate of Brexit, but on the half-frozen and almost wholly deserted streets of Brussels’ windswept European quarter there were few who seemed to know, and even fewer who cared.

“Are they really?” asked Emma Delprez, 37, a PR consultant, informed that the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, and Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, were due to meet later in a do-or-die attempt to break the impasse.

“I had no idea. I’ve kind of given up following it, to be honest. It seems to have been going on for ever. I don’t understand the ins and outs of it but the English do seem to be causing a lot of trouble. I hope whatever they get is worth it.”

The number of job openings in America has risen - as the pace of hiring slows, and more people are laid off off.

The US labor department’s JOLTS survey shows there were 6.652 million vacancies at the end of October, up from 6.49m a month earlier. That would typically be a sign of an improving jobs market....

...but less encouragingly, the rate of new hiring fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting the jobs recovery is slowing (as November’s Non-Farm Payroll also indicated last week).

JOLTS also shows that more workers were let go (partly temporary workers hired for the 2020 Census).

Although, as this data predates the encouraging vaccine trial news, and the US election, it may be tricky to draw too many lessons....

Updated

Back in the US, the number of mortgage applications has dropped for the second week running.

Applications fell 1.2% last week, following a 0.6% decline in the previous seven days. That may indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic and the lack of a new stimulus package is weighing on demand, as the holiday season approaches.

Sterling volatility jumps ahead of Brexit dinner

Investors are bracing for the value of the pound to swing wildly, depending on the results of tonight’s meeting between Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen.

The overnight sterling implied volatility gauge (a measure of how much protection investors are taking against sharp moves in the pound) has jumped to its highest level in over eight months.

It’s at its highest level since late March, when sterling was being buffeted by the market crash.

The one-month volatility gauge has also jumped, showing that traders expect sterling to be volatile over the next few weeks.

The cost of buying options that pay out if sterling falls (a put option, to sell the pound at a certain price) have also increased, relative to call options (which let traders buy the pound at a set price).

John Hardy of Saxo Bank explains that traders are looking to protect themselves in case the Johnson-Ven Der Leyen talks fail.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to meet with EU commission head Ursula Von Der Leyen this evening for dinner in Brussels in an effort to move forward the stuck Brexit negotiations. The critical outstanding issue is the “level playing field” or “state aid” issue. While we have assumed all along that some sort of a deal would inevitably be hashed out between the two sides, even if it was a rather thin deal that disguises the need for ongoing negotiations on particulars based on a loose framework of principles. But the latest turn in negotiations has raised the fear of a proper stand-off that brings with it a cliff-edge risk into year end. I still suspect some sort of fudge, or at worst, delay is more likely than a cliff edge, but we should all respect the uncertainty of the situation.

The market is certainly respecting the uncertainty more than is shown in the choppy action in the spot GBP exchange rates, as GBPUSD 1-month implied volatility has pulled higher toward 13% and the 10-delta options are 5.5% more expensive for puts than calls – getting close to where they were during the pandemic meltdown, for perspective.

As soon as in the wake of this evening’s meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen we should have a headline indicating the latest temperature of the situation and whether we are moving in the “right” direction or toward a nail-biting stand-off.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index have both hit record highs at the start of trading.

Hopes of a US stimulus bill seem to be driving shares up, after the White House proposed a $916bn deal overnight (although this hasn’t broken the deadlock yet).

Pound still up in choppy trading

Back in the financial markets, the pound is still choppy as investors wait for tonight’s dinner in Brussels.

Sterling climbed more than a cent by this lunchtime to $1.3477, a new high for the week.

But it’s now slid back down to $1.343 (still up 0.6% today), after Irish prime minister Micheal Martin told the Dublin parliament that the two sides are “on the precipice of a no-deal.”

Boris Johnson has told MPs that Britain would “prosper” whether it agrees a free trade deal with the EU or not,

Asked about the prospects for a deal at Prime Minister’s Questions, Johnson said:

“Our friends in the EU are currently insisting that if they pass a new law in future with which we in this country do not comply or don’t follow suit, then they want the automatic right to punish us and to retaliate.

“And secondly they’re saying the UK should be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its fishing waters. I don’t believe that those are terms that any prime minister of this country should accept.”

Traders remain hopeful of a breakthrough in time -- following Michael Gove’s encouraging words about the possibility of compromise over fishing rights.

Brad Bechtel of Jefferies says:

The Brexit negotiations seem to be very close if you believe Michael Gove, and Boris and Von der Leyen are having dinner this evening as they try to get to a conclusion on this front.

Exporters are also reporting that the cost of pallets has jumped, as they need to be heat-treated or cleaned to meet EU import standards, reports the FT’s Peter Foster:

Trade bodies have been warning for months that Britain does not have enough of the right sort of disease-resistant pallets to trade with the European Union once the Withdrawal Agreement ends.

ISPM 15 standards don’t apply to trade within the EU, so the UK is short of the kilns which can heat pallets to 56ºC for 30 minutes to kill bugs and pests, and meet the phytosanitary requirements.

Speaking of the ports... Kent Online points out that temporary traffic management has been introduced on the route to Dover, to handle the high volumes of lorries.

They say:

Kent’s roads once again are beginning to resemble a lorry park as drivers queue to access the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel.

Dover TAP, short for Traffic Access Protocol, was implemented on the coastbound A20 at Aycliffe due to high volumes of freight heading towards the port yesterday for the fourth time in two weeks and is once again in place today.

It means a 40mph speed restriction will apply to all vehicles approaching Dover from the west via the A20.

When traffic reaches high volumes vehicles will be held at temporary traffic lights until space becomes available.

The Port of Dover also tweeted that they were busy this morning:

Price rises likely due to UK shipping problems

Escalating problems at UK ports are likely to drive up costs for consumers, experts are warning, whether a Brexit free trade deal is reached or not.

Honda’s struggle to get necessary parts to its Swindon car factory is just part of a wider congestion problem.

Felixstowe, the UK’s largest container port, has been handling about 30% more goods than usual for months, with some businesses rushing to replenish stock after the end of lockdowns and others building stockpiles before the Brexit transition period ends.

As a result, freight costs are soaring... which could feed through to consumers in the shops.

David Lowe, partner at law firm Gowling WLG, says the usual supply chains are being tested.

Practical arrangements for getting goods in and out of the UK are usually invisible, because they normally work. The current delays in containerised imports, and the price increases that come with that , brings home that you cannot take it for granted. There is limited resilience in the supply chain. That resilience is being tested by the impact of Covid-19, and is going to be further tested by Brexit, especially as with 3 weeks to go we do not know what Brexit looks like.

Whatever the deal struck on Brexit delays at the border and increased costs will be inevitable, at a time when the economy is already weakened.

The BBC also warns that price rises are likely due to the shipping crisis, saying:

On top of skyrocketing shipping rates, carriers are adding congestion charges for imports to Felixstowe and Southampton, because of severe delays.

The logistics industry has written to the Department for Transport calling for it to help clear port backlogs.

One freight director said the UK’s ports are currently “broken”.

Property news: The riverside 1960s building currently occupied by failed department store chain Debenhams in Guildford, Surrey, has been sold for £20m to investment and development company Native Land.

The 233,700 square foot (22,000 square metre) building, located on 1.4 acres next to the River Wey in the affluent commuter town, was put up for sale by M&G Real Estate at the start of the year for a guide price of £20m, billing it as a “unique property development”.

[It certainly is a striking site, as this tweet from September shows]

Native Land said it is exploring a range of development options for the site - including homes for sale and rent, as well as retail and commercial outlets “to unlock and enliven the river frontage”.

The Guildford Debenhams outlet was originally slated to close in 2020 but given a reprieve until 2021. However the entire collapsed department store chain will be wound down after Christmas unless a last-minute buyer cuts a deal with the administrators.

The UK has abandoned EU tariffs on the plane manufacturer Boeing in the hope of securing a quick post-Brexit trade deal with the US.

The UK’s move puts it at odds with the EU, which imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports worth $4bn (£3bn) after the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that the US had given illegal state aid to Boeing, its aerospace champion.

The tariff battle is part of a saga of trade disputes centred on illegal subsidies to Airbus, Boeing’s bitter European rival, and the US planemaker. The WTO had previously ruled that EU governments – including the UK, France and Germany – had provided illegal state aid to Airbus. Scotch whisky and woollen jumpers and pullovers were among the UK products hit with 25% tariffs by the US....

Our Politics Live blog flags up that Michael Gove has played down the prospect of te Brexit trade deal being finalised at tonight’s Brussels dinner.

EU officials have also been stressing that Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen will look for a reason to “move forward hopefully”, rather than actually agreeing a deal over pudding.

My colleague Andy Sparrow explains:

In an interview this morning Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, suggested the best he was hoping for was “further political momentum”. He told Times Radio:

I’m hopeful that the prime minister will be able to lay out, over the course of dinner, where movement is required. The conversation between the prime minister and the president tonight, I hope, will create further political momentum, which will make sure that we do reach an agreement.

His language is very similar to this statement on the prospects for the Johnson/Von der Leyen dinner released to the media last night from a UK government source.

It’s clear that some political impetus will be required for the talks to make any more progress. If we can make progress at a political level it may allow Lord Frost and his team to resume negotiations over the coming days. But we must be realistic that an agreement may not be possible as we will not compromise on reclaiming UK sovereignty.

Here’s his Politics/Covid-19 UK liveblog:

Pound gains nearly a cent

The pound is continuing to climb, now up almost a cent against the US dollar today at $1.345.

That’s its highest level this week, since worries about the UK and EU would fail to reach a trade deal began to rise.

Last Friday, optimism of a deal helped to drive sterling to its highest level against the dollar since May 2018 (with the dollar wilting against most major currencies).

The actual crunch dinner between Johnson and Van Der Leyen is still many hours away, though.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has suggested a deal is possible, telling RTE radio that:

Ultimately it takes a little bit of politics at the end and both sides to move a little bit at the end. But I think that is possible,”

But Varadkar also suggested that the UK would need to compromise on the level-playing field rules, on issues like labour and environmental standards.

“Is (British Prime Minister) Boris Johnson willing to make concessions in those areas? I think he probably is...I think his natural instincts are actually much closer to the more liberal London mayor that he was than the more conservative Brexiteer.”

(thanks to Reuters for the quotes).

UBS Global Wealth Management reckon that the London stock market should perform well in 2021, whether a Brexit deal is reached or not.

Dean Turner, Chief Eurozone & UK Economist, and Caroline Simmons, UK Chief Investment Officer, say:

“On the whole, we see value in UK assets, especially in UK stocks. The UK is currently our most preferred equity region, benefiting from a relatively high exposure to stocks and sectors that have so far lagged the recovery.

Even in a no-deal Brexit scenario, we expect UK stocks to perform well.”

Here’s how they see 2021 playing out:

  • We do not expect UK interest rates to turn negative. This should allow the recent outperformance of financial stocks to continue.
  • Decision time on Brexit is approaching, and while we expect to see a deal agreed, sterling could be hit if one isn’t agreed. We expect the UK market, which trades at a discount to global stocks, to outperform whatever the outcome.
  • The UK economy and the level of earnings are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels before the end of 2022. However, this is more than compensated for in current valuations.
  • UK dividends will return to growth in 2021, giving an additional boost to this attractive income-yielding market.
  • US President-elect Joe Biden will be in less of a hurry to strike a trade deal with the UK than the UK will be to forge a deal with the US. Either way, it is likely to have a relatively limited impact on the UK equity market overall.

FTSE 100 touches fresh nine-month high

The FTSE 100 has now hit its highest level since early March, gaining nearly 1% to 6623 points (before dipping back a little).

Brexit deal hopes, vaccine optimism and US stimulus talks are all helping the market rally, although the Footsie is still down around 13% for the year.

Oil companies BP and Royal Dutch Shell are among the risers, up nearly 2.5%.

Crude prices are up 1% this morning, reflecting hopes of stronger demand for energy if vaccine rollouts can help drive economic recovery.

US stimulus hopes also cheer investors

European stock markets have also opened higher, pushing the Stoxx 600 index to its highest level since February.

Germany’s DAX is up 1% - and in positive territory for the year -- while France’s CAC is 0.6% to the good.

Last night, Wall Street closed at fresh record levels (again), after White House proposed a new $916bn stimulus package to Congress, which would reportedly include new checks for families to help them through the pandemic.

The offer was rejected by Democrats, though, as it provided much less funding for unemployment benefits than the bipartisan package which lawmakers are trying to hammer out.

But as USA Today points out, Congress needs to reach an agreement soon, otherwise millions of US families face a grim end to 2020.

A potential deal is coming down to the wire as 12 million Americans are set to lose their unemployment benefits the day after Christmas.

Eviction moratoriums for renters and protections for student borrowers are also set to expire, as well as a federal program for paid family leave.

While all eyes are on Brexit today, vaccines are still the “magic wand” lifting investor confidence, says Neil Wilson of Markets.com.

As the UK’s vaccination programme begins, the Oxford University and AstraZeneca vaccine has been confirmed as being safe and effective in a Lancet study. The news further underpinned confidence in the reopening trade.

Meanwhile the FDA has confirmed the efficacy and safety of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, clearing the way for its imminent approval for use in the US.

Vaccine hopes build

Vaccine optimism is also lifting shares in London this morning.

IAG (which owns British Airways) is up 5% and Rolls-Royce (which makes and services jet engines) gaining 3.5%.

The start of Britain’s vaccine rollout yesterday has lifted confidence of a return to normality in 2021.

Investors are also hoping that US regulators will sign off the Pfizer vaccine soon, after the US Food and Drug Administration said its trial data was in line with its guidance on emergency use authorization.

Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at interactive investor, explains:

The US health regulator noted no concerns on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while Johnson & Johnson threw its hat into the ring, announcing that it could obtain late-stage trial results for its vaccine in January.

Alongside a roll out which has now begun in the UK, expectations are increasing for a relatively early solution to the human and economic problems which the pandemic has caused.

Shares in UK housebuilders are up this morning, reflecting optimism that a disruptive no-deal can be avoided.

Taylor Wimpey (+2.7%) and Berkeley Group (+2.7%) are among the FTSE 100 risers.

On the FTSE 250 index, joinery firm Howdens have jumped 8% after it reported that profits are likely to be ahead of City forecasts after a bumper November.

Howdens supplies kitchens and bathrooms, so is probably benefitting from the surge in house sales in recent months, as well as the boom in DIY.

Updated

The pound is also up against the euro this morning, gaining 0.2% to €1.105.

Traders are encouraged to hear that Michael Gove has also floated the prospect of compromise over fishing rights -- one of the three outstanding issues to be resolved (along with the level-playing field, and the governance of the deal).

Reuters has the details:

Britain sees scope for a compromise on fishing in Brexit trade negotiations, one of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s most senior Brexit-supporting ministers said on Wednesday.

“I think there can be scope for compromise but the compromise exists on the way in which European boats can continue to access UK waters,” Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove told BBC radio.

“But what is not up for compromise is the principle that the UK will be an independent coastal state, and that it will be a matter for negotiation between the UK and the EU, with the UK in control of our waters,” Gove said.

“You know, countries like Iceland and Norway, even jurisdictions like the Faroes have control over who enters their waters,” Gove said.

“Now, I think we can be very generous with that. I think that we can reach arrangements with European countries that allow a staged process so there can be a degree of certainty, so that they can manage that,” Gove said.

Introduction: Pound and FTSE 100 open higher

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It’s crunch time for the UK-EU Brexit talks. And stocks and the pound are both moving a little higher this morning on hopes that Boris Johnson an Ursula von der Leyen can hammer out a breakthrough at their dinner in Brussel tonight.

The pound has gained 0.5% against the US dollar this morning, back over the $1.34 mark -- recovering most of its losses earlier this week.

Senior cabinet minister Michael Gove has told Sky News this morning that yesterday’s agreement on implementing the Northern Ireland protocol should help, saying

“There is a smoother glide path towards a possible deal....

“I hope that we will secure a free trade agreement.

Matt Weller of Gain Capital explains how this agreement over Northern Ireland’s treatment has lifted hopes of a free trade deal.

Essentially, the UK and EU have been in parallel negotiations over both a trade deal, which has been more in focus lately, and the implementation of the 2019 treaty over the Withdrawal Agreement and Irish Protocol to avoid a hard border with Norther Ireland.

It’s this second negotiation that has now been ostensibly resolved, potentially paving the way for a broader trade deal in the days to come.

Shares have also opened higher in London, where the FTSE 100 is 34 points higher at 6591 - close to last week’s nine-month high.

The smaller FTSE 25o index, which has a close focus on UK companies, is also up 0.5%.

But, anxiety is also rising that UK supply chains could buckle when the Brexit transition period finishes at the end of December.

Honda is reportedly pausing production at its UK factory as it’s struggling to get car parts into the country, with Brexit stockpiling adding to Covid-19 disruption.

The agenda

  • 12pm GMT: US weekly mortgage applications
  • 3.30pm GMT: US crude oil inventory figures
 

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