Right now everyone connected to the federal political sphere is preparing for an election this year – most likely August or September.
The last possible date for the usual half-Senate/House of Representatives election is 21 May 2022, but no one thinks that is at all likely, regardless of Scott Morrison’s statement last year that he is a “full-termer”.
It is why Anthony Albanese announced the shadow ministry reshuffle this week.
Given few people can name any shadow minister, such changes are unlikely to have much impact, but there’s no point holding back when this year is likely to be a long sprint to the finish line.
You can float all manner of reasons why the government might go to the polls this year rather than next but most are to do with the pandemic and the economy – and how both will look next year compared with now.
This week the IMF released its latest economic update, which includes projections for growth this year and next.
The good news is it has revised up Australia’s growth figures for this year by 0.5% points, to 3.5%.
That’s pretty solid, if not stellar, growth. It would be the best year since 2012, but nothing that would have people recalling the heady years of the early 2000s mining boom.
But then comes 2022. The IMF projects growth will slow to 2.9%, which if we are generous we will call “average”, but it will be barely enough to lower the unemployment rate – meaning it will likely remain above 6%.
It’s not the stuff that is going to have people thinking we have “snapped back”; more it might serve to remind people just how weak the economy was before the pandemic came along.
This year the vaccine, the lack of shutdowns, and just the general sense that nothing can be as bad as last year, will give the government an easier product to sell.
There will be strong growth, both in jobs and other indicators, purely because last year was terrible.
Donald Trump tried this on a bit by bragging about record growth levels last year. Of course he didn’t win, but the false sense that comes from comparing things with the worst of times did at least give him a pitch that he had the nation heading in a good direction.
Fortunately for Joe Biden, Trump was incapable of sticking to the script and continually undermined the message, but Morrison will not be so kind to the ALP.
Morrison, unlike Trump, has been able to ride on the backs of the states.
The ALP will claim the Morrison government failed during the pandemic to take responsibility of aged care and aspects of international quarantine, and that it had to be dragged to the table to agree to policies such as the wage subsidy that became jobkeeper. But when you have processes as purposely opaque as is the national cabinet, there is more than enough room for politicians to claim credit and deflect blame.
And even better for the government, the pandemic has wiped away most memories of Morrison’s failures during last year’s bushfires.
But by 2022, the pandemic will be further in the background and the excuses and willingness to forgive certain levels of unemployment, stagnant wage growth and lack of overall economic strength will fade.
People like things being back to normal, but the last thing the government wants is for voters to realise that what was normal before the pandemic was not very good.
The ALP remains relatively even with the Coalition in the polls (such as they matter). That itself is quite stunning, given a crisis like the pandemic naturally has people defaulting to the incumbent (so long as they don’t completely screw up).
The problem for the ALP is that since the second world war no opposition has ever won a close election – for a swing to change government it has always needed to be a big one.
Another year would give Labor more time to build up some momentum, while increasing the risk that the government’s pitch of a strong recovery seems less true.
All of which makes an election this year more likely than not.
