Congratulations to former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who has received unanimous backing to become the first woman, and the first African, to run the World Trade Organization.

Okonjo-Iweala was chosen as the WTO’s next director general at a special meeting of its General Council today -- nearly three months after her appointment was blocked by the US.

With protectionism on the rise in recent years, and the global economy battered by Covid-19, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala faces a tough task. She’s highly experienced, though, having worked as managing director of the World Bank and also chaired Gavi, the vaccine alliance.

Here’s a profile of the WTO’s next leader:

And here’s a flavour:

“The WTO needs … a fresh look, a fresh face, an outsider, someone with the capability to implement reforms and to work with members to make sure the WTO comes out of the partial paralysis that it’s in,” Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview with CNN.

Ada Osakwe, an economist who worked with Okonjo-Iweala in government, said the appointment was “big deal for Africa and it’s a big deal for the world”. “Having such a remarkably accomplished woman take the helm of an institution that needs some level of a shake-up, given everything that’s happening with trade in the world, the fights between the US and China. She has been in the trenches,” she told the Guardian.

Last week Okonjo-Iweala told her Twitter followers that she was looking forward to “finalising the process of WTO’s DG”. “There is vital work ahead to do together,” she said.

Over in Texas, electricity prices have surged dramatically as the state is hit by a harsh winter storm, forcing blackouts.

Reuters flags up that the spot price of electricity on the Texas power grid spiked more than 10,000% on Monday, as snow and ice sent temperatures plunging across the southern US plains states.

They explain:

Real-time market prices on the power grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) have climbed as high as $11,000 per megawatt, according to ERCOT. A typical price on the grid, which supplies most of the electricity for Texas, is less than $100 per megawatt.

Gas prices also rocketed over the weekend:

ERCOT was forced to launch rotating power outages began this morning, meaning thousands went without electricity for short periods, with the temperature in Dallas currently -14C (7F).

As well as driving up demand for heating, these ice storms have frozen some of Texas’s wind turbines, leaving them unable to generate power for the grid.

Chetan Ahya, global head of economics at Morgan Stanley, reckons US policymakers will try to create a ‘high-pressure’ economy to get growth up, and unemployment down, after the pandemic.

Ahya writes:

After hunkering down for much of 2020, people are eager to make up for lost time. Much the same can be said of policy-makers, who are taking action to recoup lost economic output and return to maximum employment as quickly as possible. To get there, we think they are aiming for a high-pressure economy – an environment of stronger-than-average economic growth that helps to reduce unemployment. That’s exactly where we think the US economy is headed in the coming quarters....

Spending patterns indicate that households have been forced to accumulate excess saving as restrictions on mobility have limited their opportunities to go out and spend. With warmer temperatures coming and vaccinations set to cover a large part of the vulnerable population, we are confident that the relaxation of restrictions, which has begun in the states with the tightest controls, will pick up speed as spring approaches.

Charlie Bilello, CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, shows how infections in the US - and the UK - have dropped:

Tim Martin, the founder and chairman of pub chain Wetherspoon’s, is urging the government to get locals open again.

Martin warned that the pub industry was on its knees under the latest lockdown rules, and should be allowed to reopen alongside non-essential shops.

He argues:

“Surely it is possible for the hospitality industry to reopen at the same time as non-essential shops, now that a vaccine exists, on the basis of the social distancing and hygiene regulations, which were agreed with the health authorities, after full consultation, for the July 4 reopening last year.

“Unless the industry does reopen on that basis, economic mayhem will inevitably follow.”

The challenge facing the government, though, is that any loosening of the lockdown risks pushing the R rate up - so it must prioritise how to reopen various parts of the economy without risking a 4th lockdown.

The Sun reported last Friday that UK pubs and restaurants will be able to serve outdoors in April if Covid cases continue to fall. Given the British weather, drinkers might want to wrap up....

Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at XM, says US stimulus hopes and vaccine-led euphoria continued to bolster sentiment today, pushing both oil and the pound higher.

It was a bullish mood in commodity markets as well on Monday as rising optimism for the economic outlook fuelled expectations of higher demand for commodities such as oil and copper. WTI oil was up almost 2%, breaking above $60 a barrel today to a new 13-month high. Brent crude was also up sharply (1.3%) to trade above $63.

Aside from the growth optimism, fresh tensions in the Middle East also supported oil prices following reports of an Iranian-backed drone attack in Yemen against Saudi-led forces.

Commodity prices are also rallying hard today, on expectations of higher demand as the global economy rebounds from the pandemic.

Tin has hit a seven year high, which the Financial Times attributes to a “manufacturing-driven buying frenzy” that has drained physical stocks of the commodity.

The dark grey metal, usually associated with cans, has become a key material for the global electronics industry. It is used to make solder — the substance that binds together circuit boards and wiring.

The shift to working from home has boosted demand for computers and other electronic devices, while China has also been stockpiling the metal to meet its goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductors, according to traders.

More here: Tin-buying frenzy sends prices to seven-year high

Copper has hit its highest level since 2012, trading as high as touching $8,406 per tonne, amid predictions of rising inflation and stronger than expected demand from China’s factories, according to Reuters.

These higher commodity prices could, one assumes, force factories to put up their own prices - ultimately leading to higher costs in the shops....

The US dollar has dipped broadly in the markets, hitting a two-week low against a basket of currencies.

Optimism about COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, and the prospect of more US stimulus measures, pushed investors into riskier assets and out of the dollar.

Analysts at MUFG predict further dollar weakness ahead, which indicates the pound could have further to rally.

“We believe there is plenty yet to go in the so-called ‘reflation trade’ with market participants under-estimating the willingness of global policymakers to let the economy run hot and fuel stronger-than-expected global growth through the remainder of the year.

Here’s our news story on Jaguar Land Rover’s electric car push:

At $1.39 against the US dollar, the pound is still rather weaker than before the Brexit vote in 2016 - when it was worth almost $1.50.

But Paul Dales of Capital Economics argues that sterling could close that gap and rally to $1.45 this year, as the threat of negative interest rates diminishes.

He believes improving global risk sentiment should also boost the stock market, telling clients:

UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by the combination of a rapid global economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and global central banks running ultra-loose policy for many more years.

But the UK’s more favourable valuations and its greater exposure to the sectors that are likely to benefit most from the recovery, such as consumer-facing, energy and financial, suggests that equities in the UK will rebound more rapidly than elsewhere.

Overnight, mortgage lender Halifax has reported that demand for detached houses in the UK has boomed during the coronavirus pandemic.

Buyers paid an average price of £486,595 for a detached property in December, 10% more than in December 2019, amid a scramble for more space to make home-working and schooling easier.

The pound’s rally comes on the 50th anniversary of decimalisation.

That was the day when the UK abandoned the complicated mix of tanners, shillings and florins in favour of today’s simpler system based on 100 pennies in the pound.

The new 1/2p, 1p, 2p, 5p, 10p and 50p coins were designed by sculptor Christopher Ironside, whose daughter Kate has written a fascinating thread about the process:

After three hours trading, the UK’s FTSE 100 is solidly higher - up 90 points at 6679 points, its best level in almost three weeks.

Oil producers and miners continue to lead the rally, along with UK retailers (JD Sports are up almost 5%) and hospitality firms, on hopes of an economic revival this year.

The eurozone has recorded its largest goods trade surplus since the currency block was created over 20 years ago.

The eurozone’s trade in goods surplus with the rest of the world swelled to €27.5bn on a seasonally-adjusted basis in December, up from €24.9bn in November.

That’s the largest seasonally-adjusted surplus recorded over the period for which data are available (1999-2020), data provider eurostat reports.

Ignoring seasonal adjustments, the eurozone goods trade surplus rose to €29.2bn in December 2020, compared with +€22.6bn in December 2019.

With the world economy gripped by the pandemic, eurozone imports and exports both fell sharply last year - with the trade surplus over the year widening.

Eurostat explains:

In January to December 2020, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world fell to €2 131.4bn (a decrease of 9.2% compared with January-December 2019), and imports fell to €1 897.0bn (a decrease of 10.8% compared with January-December 2019).

As a result the euro area recorded a surplus of €234.5 bn, compared with +€221.0 bn in January-December 2019.

Europe’s factories ended 2020 on a rather low note, with output shrinking by more than expected.

Industrial production across the eurozone fell by 1.6% in December, and by 1.2% in the wider EU.

Production of capital goods fell by 3.1%, showing weaker demand for physical assets like buildings, machinery, equipment, vehicles, and tools. Production of non-durable consumer goods fell by 0.6%.

On the upside, production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.8%, intermediate goods by 1.0% and energy by 1.4%, eurostat reports.

That wrapped up a dismal year; annual average industrial production for 2020, compared with 2019, fell by 8.7% in the euro area and by 8.0% in the EU.

Here’s Reuters’ take on the pound’s rally this morning:

The British pound climbed above $1.39 for the first time in nearly three years on Monday, lifted by broad-based dollar weakness as well as Britain’s success in rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine.

The currency has been a key gainer against a struggling greenback this month as the aggressive rollout of the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom raises hopes its economy will be able to recover quickly, compared to its European peers.

In early London trading, the pound rose 0.4% to $1.3915, its highest level since late April 2018, according to Refinitiv data. Versus the euro, it gained 0.2% to 87.24 pence, its highest levels since May 2020.

European stock markets are all stronger this morning, led by the UK’s FTSE 100 which is now up 92 points or 1.4% at 6682.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould says the improving economic outlook is lifting shares.

“Government attempts to manage expectations on Covid better are helpful to the market which is now probably pleasantly surprised at just how quickly the UK has vaccinated the most vulnerable sections of its population.

“This is making it easier for investors to look through to a reopening of the economy even if the pace at which restrictions are eased remains a topic of fierce debate.

“Positive news for the UK is often a double-edged sword for the FTSE as it boosts the pound and thereby crimps the relative value of the overseas earnings which dominate the index.

“However, as this morning’s trading demonstrates, with sterling and the FTSE 100 both higher, an improved economic outlook domestically should still provide support to the UK’s flagship stock index.

The FTSE 250 index of medium-sized UK companies is also rallying strongly this morning, up 1.2% at 21280 points.

That’s its highest level since the start of the start of the stock market crash nearly a year ago, as stock prices have steadily clawed their way back:

Top rises on the FTSE 250 include holiday group TUI (+5.9%), budget airline easyJet (+5.6%) and retail chain WH Smiths (+5.9%), indicating that investors are anticipating brighter times for the travel sector.

Here’s some reaction to Japan’s Nikkei closing at its highest level since August 1990 today, at 30,084.15 points.

The UK could soon see a surge of ‘pent-up demand’, if the vaccination programmes allow economic restrictions to ease soon, says Michael Hewson of CMC Markets:

The UK’s vaccine rollout program is much further advanced than everyone else’s in Europe as the government, over the weekend, met its target of 15m people getting their first jab by 15^th February.

Assuming everything else goes according to plan this opens up the prospect that we could see a slow easing of restrictions sooner rather than later, with the next update on measures, due a week today.

This raises the much-discussed prospect that we could well see an explosion of pent-up demand, as consumers ramp up their spending in a form of post lockdown boom, which could see up to £150bn unleashed of excess savings over the next few months, with a similarly robust rebound predicted in the US as well, as new stimulus payments trickle down into the US economy.

Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has also predicted a multibillion-pound spending spree:

But while millions of families have racked up savings during the lockdown, millions more have really struggled, especially if they worked in hard-hit (and less well paid) areas like hospitality....