Closing summary
Time for a quick recap.
Stock markets have begun March in bullish mood, with strong gains on both sides of the Atlantic.
Shares jumped as bond market jitters eased, a new US stimulus package approached, and regulators in America approved J&J’s single-shot Covid-19 jab.
In London, the FTSE 100 closed 105 points higher at 6588, a gain of 1.6%, recovering more than half of Friday’s slump. Travel companies led the rally, along with housebuilders on predictions of a new mortgage guarantee scheme.
European markets had their best day in four months, while in New York the S&P 500 has jumped over 2%, and could notch up its best day in nine months....
In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury bond has been trading calmly at a yield of around 1.45% - down on the 1.6% it spiked to last week.
On the economic front, UK factories reported a jump in supply chain problems last month as the Brexit deal and the Covid-19 pandemic caused disruption.
US manufacturers also flagged up problems getting raw materials, as the economic recovery, transport problems, and the global shortage of semiconductors all led to headaches.
In Europe, though, factory growth hit a three-year high.
Inflation in Germany has pushed up, and economists reckon it will keep rising this year.
The Bank of England reported a slump in consumer borrowing during January’s lockdown, and a small drop in mortgage approvals too.
Here are the rest of today’s stories:
Goodnight. GW
David Miller, investment director at Quilter Cheviot, has some interesting thoughts about the recent bond sell-off, and the “scare story” that inflation will force interest rates higher.
- With bonds yield close to zero or even negative, the attraction is capital security, not making a long-term return.
- Over a decade of money creation hasn’t caused inflation so why now?
- Inflation is cyclical as are bond market selloffs which tend to happen more or less annually. Each time fears about the future emerge just as yields reach a peak and then fall back.
- The last time US inflation reached 3% was in 2011.
- History suggests that hyper-inflation is caused by wars, revolution or very corrupt governments. Printing money isn’t the principle driver.
He also predict the markets could take ‘a few more months’ to settle down:
An optimistic assessment of market movements is that the global economy is recovering at a faster rate than predicted which is putting upward pressure on historically low prices and interest rates. Better this than the reverse, but it may take a few more months before things settle down. Longer term investors are watching as inflation does matter.
During periods of deflation the best course of action is to repay debt. Disinflation, which is what we have been living with for a couple of decades, favours equities, whilst a return to endemic high inflation is a problem for all favouring relatively few companies and asset classes.
That’s from his latest Diary of a Fund Manager, which is online here.
Full story: UK factory production slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption
Britain’s manufacturers suffered from mounting supply chain disruption in February as Brexit and the third Covid lockdown weighed down growth in factory production, according to a survey.
In a reflection of continuing border disruption since leaving the EU, the latest snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply revealed the third biggest increase in supplier delivery times on records dating back to 1992.
Industrial output rose at the weakest pace in nine consecutive months of growth, as the manufacturing sector’s rebound from the pandemic was held back by worsening supply-chain disruption and rising cost pressures.
According to the survey of 600 manufacturing firms, which is closely watched by the government and the Bank of England for early warning signals from the UK economy, business optimism rose to a 77-month high in February amid expectations for a sharp recovery as Covid restrictions are relaxed.
The reading on the IHS Markit/CIPs purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 55.1 in February, up from 54.1 a month earlier, on a scale where anything above 50 separates economic growth from contraction.
However, analysts said the index was being artificially boosted by Brexit and Covid border disruption. Unlike normal, when longer production lead times would reflect strong economic growth as firms battle to meet demand, pushing up the index, the cause this time around is negative for companies....
Reuters: S&P 500 on track for best day in nine months
Stocks are surging higher in New York too.
The Dow is up 679 points, or 2.2% at 31,612, while the broader S&P 500 has gained over 2.3% to 3,901 points.
Vaccine cheer, and the prospect of more stimulus spending, have got investors excited again, just as calm returns to the bond markets...
Reuters has spotted that it is turning into Wall Street’s best day in several months:
The S&P 500 on Monday was headed for its best day since June 5 as bond markets calmed after a month-long selloff, while encouraging updates on COVID-19 vaccines and fiscal stimulus bolstered bets over a swift economic recovery.
The Dow was on pace for its best daily gain in nearly four months, while the Nasdaq was set for its best daily percentage gain in a month.
Johnson & Johnson rose 1.8% as it began shipping its single-dose vaccine after it became the third authorized COVID-19 vaccine in the United States over the weekend.
President Joe Biden scored his first legislative win as the House of Representatives passed his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package early Saturday. The bill now moves to the Senate.
U.S. bond yields eased on Monday after a swift rise last month on expectations of accelerated inflation due to bets on an economic rebound. The U.S. 10-year treasury yield eased to 1.419% after hitting a one-year high of 1.614%.
“The sentiment is risk on with more investors showing interest towards cyclical stocks while a positive vaccination drive and better macro numbers are hinting towards a better growth environment,” said Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta.
European stock markets have best day in four months
European stock markets have all rallied today, lifting the Stoxx 600 by over 1.7%.
That’s its best performance since early November, I think, with
Industrial stocks, travel companies, miners and property firms all had good days:
The rally shows that fears that central banks might be forced to raise interest rates sooner than planned have faded.
David Madden of CMC Markets explains:
Equity markets have shaken off the negative sentiment that was doing the rounds last week as the pullback in government bond yields has seen buyers step into the fold. Yields have cooled in light of the updates from central banks that they will not be pushed around by the bond market.
The Fed is not overly concerned about the rise in the 10-year yield in recent months, while Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist talked about being flexible with respect to bond purchases. Traders feel more confident about snapping up relatively cheap stocks as they are less fearful that central banks will look to tighten their policy anytime soon. The focus has switched back to the Biden administration as the planned $1.9 trillion spending scheme was approved by The House of Representatives, so now the upper house – The Senate – is debating the proposal.
The jump in commodity prices today also lifted markets, particularly in London:
Royal Dutch Shell along with BP are helping the FTSE 100 as the oil titans have a relatively large impact on the benchmark in terms of index points. Oil’s move higher is helping the energy stocks. In a similar fashion, the rally in copper and platinum has boosted Anglo American, Rio Tinto and BHP Group.
FTSE 100 closes higher
March has got off to a decent start in the City.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 index has closed 105 points higher at 6588, a jump of 1.6%. That’s its best day in a fortnight, straight after its worst session in four months.
Airline group IAG ended the day up 6.9%, amid vaccine optimism, followed by the UK housebuilders in anticipation of a new UK mortgage guarantee scheme.
Billionaire hedge fund boss pays himself UK record of £343m
The billionaire hedge fund manager Sir Chris Hohn paid himself $479m last year after his Children’s Investment (TCI) fund, recorded a 66% jump in pre-tax profits to $695m.
It is believed to be the highest annual amount ever paid to one person in Britain and equates to £940,000 a day. It is 9,000 times the average UK salary and 1,700 times the amount paid to the prime minister, Boris Johnson.
Hohn’s huge $479m (£343m) payday is significantly higher than the previous record of £323m paid to Denise Coates, the majority shareholder of the betting company Bet365, in 2018...
More here:
A third of top UK firms' CO2 emissions not in line with global climate goals
Three out of 10 of the UK’s biggest public companies emit carbon dioxide at a rate that would contribute significantly to the climate crisis, according to analysis that shows the scale of the challenge for corporate Britain to cut emissions to zero.
Thirty-one members of the FTSE 100, the index of Britain’s largest listed companies, are emitting carbon dioxide at a rate consistent with global temperature increases of 2.7C or more by 2050, according to analysis by Arabesque, a company that provides climate data to investors.
Highlighting the mounting risks to the planet, the rise would be above the target set under the 2015 Paris climate accords to limit global heating to below 2C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. A temperature rise of 2.7C is thought to be likely to lead to severe damage to the environment and to human life.
Oil companies including BP and Royal Dutch Shell are among those that produce carbon dioxide emissions consistent with temperature rises of more than 2.7C, even without taking into account the emissions related to the fossil fuels they dig up and sell, known as scope 3 emissions.
The mining sector also performed poorly, with Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP, Evraz, Fresnillo and Polymetal all among the companies scored at above 2.7C.....
The increase in the ISM manufacturing index shows that America’s factory sector recovery “remains red-hot”, says Michael Pearce, Senior US Economist at Capital Economics.
He explains that the global shortages of electronics and in particular semiconductors are pushing up supplier delivery times, and also contributing to rising costs, adding:
Higher oil prices and the depreciation of the dollar are putting some upward pressure on US prices this time around too, but the scale of the rise in the ISM prices paid index goes well beyond what can be explained by those factors alone.
The comments in the report also make it crystal clear that these shortages go well beyond just semiconductors, with firms in every sector reporting shortages and problems with suppliers keeping up with demand.
ISM: US factories see rising prices and shortages as orders grow
The Institute of Supply Management has also found that US factories are suffering from supply shortages, as new business continues to grow.
Its manufacturing report, just released, found that many firms reported that supplies are taking longer to arrive, and that their raw materials inventories are contracting as they juggle orders.
Here’s some examples of what factory managers reported:
- Steel prices have increased significantly in recent months, driving costs up from our suppliers and on proposals for new work that we are bidding. In addition, the tariffs and anti-dumping fees/penalties incurred by international mills/suppliers are being passed on to us.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “We have experienced a higher rate of delinquent shipments from our ingredient suppliers in the last month. We are still struggling keeping our production lines fully manned. We anticipate a fast and large order surge in the food-service sector as restaurants open back up.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- Overall capacities are full across our industry. Logistics times are at record times. Continuing to fight through shipping and increased lead times on both raw materials and finished goods due to the pandemic.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Prices are going up, and lead times are growing longer by the day. While business and backlog remain strong, the supply chain is going to be stretched very [thin] to keep up.” (Machinery)
- “Things are now out of control. Everything is a mess, and we are seeing wide-scale shortages.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “Labor shortages at suppliers are affecting material deliveries and prices.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- “A sense of urgency is being felt regarding new orders. Customers are giving an impression that a presence of stability is forthcoming and order flow is increasing.” (Textile Mills)
- “Prices are rising so rapidly that many are wondering if [the situation] is sustainable. Shortages have the industry concerned for supply going forward, at least deep into the second quarter.” (Wood Products)
The ISM’s report also showed that new orders, production, and employment all rose last month, lifting its manufacturing PMI to a three-year high.
US factories hit by rising prices
Just in: American manufacturers have also been hit by supply chain problems, which have driven up their costs and led them to charge higher prices.
Data firm IHS Markit’s latest survey of purchasing managers shows that US factories saw their costs rise at the steepest rate since April 2011, amid record supplier shortages.
In response, selling prices increased at sharpest pace since July 2008 -- which highlights the concerns about inflation rising as economies rebound from the pandemic.
US factories also reported a steep expansions in output and new orders in February, leading to a boost in business confidence, and hiring.
The PMI report says:
The rate of production growth was among the fastest in six years while new order growth was among the fastest seen over the past three years. New export orders also rose solidly, registering the second-steepest gain since September 2014.
As a result, the US manufacturing PMI has come in at 58.6 in February, down from 59.2 in January, but still close to a 10-year high.
Markit says:
February PMI data from IHS Markit indicated a marked upturn in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Although the rate of overall growth eased, it was the second-fastest since April 2010 and was supported by sharp increases in output and new orders.
Unprecedented supply chain disruption remained apparent, however, with supplier shortages and transportation delays leading to a substantial rise in input costs. Firms were, however, able to partially pass on input prices to clients through the fastest increase in charges since July 2008. At the same time, employment grew at the steepest rate since September 2014, as business confidence also improved.
US stock market jumps at the open
The US stock market has opened sharply higher, as investors try to put last week’s bond market jitters behind them.
All three main indices are rallying, on relief that US Treasury yields have dropped back from last week’s one-year highs...and that J&J’s vaccine will soon be in American arms.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 485 points or 1.57%, to 31,418 points.
The broader S&P 500 has gained 58 points, or 1.5%, to 3,869 points.
And with tech stocks strengthening, the Nasdaq index is up 185 points or 1.4% at 13,377.
Updated
This chart handily shows how investors have been cutting their exposure to US Treasury bonds since early 2021, as rising inflation expectations have pushed prices down, moving yields up.
Wall Street is set to open higher, thanks to the calm in the bond market and relief that US regulators have approved J&J’s single-shot Covid-19 vaccine.
The latest inflation data from Germany shows that consumer prices rose last month.
The German Consumer Price Index increased 1.3% year-on-year in February, up from 1.0% in January, and slightly ahead of forecasts.
On a monthly basis, prices were 0.7% higher than in January.
On a harmonised basis, Germany’s annual inflation rate remained at 1.6%.
Carsten Brzeski of ING reckons inflation in Germany will keep rising in the coming months, as the economy reopens:
In fact, there will be a series of one-off factors pushing up headline inflation. In the short run, it will mainly be higher energy prices driving headline inflation. But when economies reopen, price markups in sectors most hit by the lockdowns will also add to upward pressure on inflation.
Finally, the full swing of the German VAT reversal will only unfold in the second half of the year. Taking all these factors into account, German headline inflation could eventually even range between 3% and 4%, eurozone inflation could breach the 2% level this year.
Here’s a thought to ponder over lunch... what happens to the world economy next year, and beyond?
Kit Juckes of Société Générale warns that this year’s recovery could collapse like a souffle once the initial post-lockdown spending rush fades, especially if governments tighten spending too soon.
The bigger long-term issue, is what happens to growth after 2021. This year will see an uneven recovery, but a recovery all the same.
There is lots of slack and pent-up demand in most developed economies. Vaccine delivery and the end of restrictions on movement will deliver benefits, but what comes next? There is a very real danger that the initial recovery is stronger but more short-lived than expected. Will we all be going out as much in 3 years’ time as we did before Covid? Will restaurants and bars, cinemas and theatres, all reopen? Will families with two working parents be as quick to leave their children behind in the next few years? Has the revolution in labour-saving technology accelerated as a result of the pandemic?
And (the elephant in the room for the UK) how long will policymakers wait before embarking on serious fiscal tightening? An economic cycle, fuelled by cheap money, easy fiscal policy and post-lockdown exuberance, could as easily collapse like a souffle at the first sight of tightening, as return to a ‘normal’ pattern.
Travel stocks continue to advance too.
British Airways parent company IAG and cruise operator Carnival are both up over 7%, after US regulators approved Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID jab over the weekend.
That move should speed up the US vaccination programme, and could lead to other regulators approving the vaccine soon too.
Lunchtime markets
One morning into the new month, and European stock markets are still comfortably higher.
Shares have dipped slightly, but there’s still an upbeat mood, thanks to the easing of the government bond sell-off. The approval of J&J’s Covid-19 vaccine in the US, and decent manufacturing data from Europe this morning is also lifting shares.
Here’s the scores:
- FTSE 100: up 75 points or 1.15% at 6557
- Germany’s DAX: up 122 points or 0.9% at 13,909
- French CAC: up 75 points or 1.3% at 5,779
Sophie Griffiths, market analyst at OANDA, says the renewed calm in the bond markets after last week’s surging yields is helping the mood.
Equity indices are heading higher out of the blocks in Europe at the start of the new week and the new month after a dismal end to February. Vaccine optimism, a calmer tone in the bond markets and a return of the US covid stimulus bill to the spotlight are all helping to underpin the risk on mood, in addition to upbeat manufacturing PMIs in Europe. As a result, riskier assets such as stocks are firmly in demand.
The manufacturing sector in Europe continued to expand last month ahead of forecasts. In the UK the manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 55.1, up from the three month low of 54.1 in January and ahead the flash estimate of 54.9. Although the improved headline figure concealed a more sinister truth that the biggest contributor to the headline figure was the near-record increase in supplier delivery times.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the manufacturing PMI hit 57.9 in February, up from 57.7 and one of the highest readings ever. The manufacturing sector has been booming through the pandemic particularly in Germany, which saw expansion in the sector continue at impressive levels. Factories in the Eurozone are positively buzzing of the back of soaring demand.
Elsewhere a sense of calm has extended over the bond markets offering support to risk sentiment after last week’s bond market rout roiled the financial markets resulting in steep losses for most global indices.
This chart shows how the yield on US Treasury bonds has subsided, after spiking to one-year highs last week:
Housebuilder shares jump ahead of Budget
Back in the City, shares in housebuilders are pushing higher on reports that Rishi Sunak will announce a new mortgage guarantee scheme in Wednesday’s Budget.
The scheme is expected to encourage lenders to bring back 95% mortgages, with the government taking on some of the risk.
The idea is that it would benefit younger buyers who struggle to save up a deposit while also paying rent.
Investors are calculating that it will boost the housing sector, with Persimmon up over 6%, Taylor Wimpey 5.7% higher, and Barratt Development gaining 5.3%.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:
Shares in housebuilders rose strongly to the top of the FTSE 100 on reports the chancellor is set to unveil fresh support for first-time buyers
A mortgage guarantee scheme will be launched, bringing back 95% deals. This will underpin confidence in the housing market, which is inextricably linked to confidence in the broader economy. It should also be a big boon for the housebuilders.
The risk, though, is that housing support simply pushes up house prices - putting them further out of reach for the next generation
Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, has calculated that a child born today would need an £85,000 deposit to buy their first house (on average!) in 2046.
“Quarantennials will probably look back with anger on government policies of the last ten years, which have repeatedly thrown fuel on the fire of a booming housing market. As soon as the flames start to subside a bit, another bucketful gets chucked on, and if reports are to be believed, we’re due another instalment in the forthcoming Budget, as the Chancellor is reportedly considering extending the stamp duty holiday.
“Rishi Sunak is also reported to be weighing up a mortgage support scheme to bring back 95% mortgages. A mortgage guarantee scheme for first time buyers would be a better, more targeted policy than the blanket stamp duty holiday, to give a helping hand to those who otherwise might not be able to get on the housing ladder.
“However it doesn’t solve the underlying problem, which is that property prices are rising significantly faster than wages, and government initiatives to keep the housing boom going serve to exacerbate the issue. Unless the support the government puts in place becomes a permanent, structural feature of the housing market, then it simply delays the inevitable day of reckoning when the measures are withdrawn.
“While today’s first time buyers have it hard, the next generation may find getting on the housing ladder even tougher. If house prices continue to grow at the same rate they have for the last twenty years, a child born today faces paying £85,000 for a 10% deposit on the average house, when they reach 25 years of age. That’s £47,000 in today’s terms, allowing for 3% wage inflation, almost double the £25,000 needed for a 10% deposit here and now. Today’s borrowers also benefit from incredibly low interest rates, the next generation of homebuyers are unlikely to be as lucky on that score.
Updated
The publisher of Daily Mirror and Daily Express has said it will pay a dividend to shareholders despite taking a £100m hit on revenues last year, backed by a post-pandemic bounce back and a target of doubling digital revenues.
Reach, which also owns hundreds of local and regional titles including the Manchester Evening News and Liverpool Echo, reported a 14.6% fall in revenues last year to £600m as pre-tax profits crumbled to just £400,000 as the pandemic took its toll.
Adjusted profits, stripping out exceptional items such as the cost of making 550 staff redundant, closing printing sites and ongoing legal costs relating to alleged phone hacking cases, fell by 12.8% to £133.8m.
The publisher said that after hitting a nadir during the first lockdown last April, when 70% of local advertising disappeared and about 5,000 outlets that normally sell papers were closed, its business has recovered strongly.
While overall digital revenues rose 10.6% in 2020, to £118m, the final quarter of the year saw a 26% annual boost. The first two months of this year have seen digital revenues grow by a fifth, despite the third lockdown.
Jim Mullen, the chief executive of Reach, said the goal is to double digital revenues “in the medium term” as the company announced it has reached 5.8m customer registrations, more than halfway to its 10m target by the end of next year.
Overall print revenues fell 18.9% to £479m in 2020, an improvement over the 29.5% experienced during the first lockdown.
Newspaper sales have proved to be more resilient than print advertising, with annual falls of 11.6% and 28.9% respectively.
“Resilience in print circulation is the foundation for the strong cash generation which underpins strategic investment, our pension commitments and growing returns to shareholders,” said Mullen.
“While macro-economic uncertainty resulting from Covid-19 clearly remains, the group is well placed to make good progress during 2021.”
The publisher said its confidence in the outlook for the company meant that it felt comfortable paying a final dividend of 4.26p per share, up 5.2% on the 2019 payout that it cancelled due to the pandemic.
“Resumption of dividend reflects board confidence in growth opportunity and future cash flows.”
Wagamama owner burns through £5.5m a month in Covid-19 lockdown
The Restaurant Group, which owns the Wagamama, Frankie & Benny’s and Garfunkel’s chains, has reported a jump in takeaway orders but warned it is burning through £5.5m a month in the latest Covid lockdown.
The group said it had secured another loan worth £500m that would help consolidate its debt and give it a larger financial cushion as it prepareed to reopen the rest of its sites to diners when lockdown lifts.
It said orders so far this year had been encouraging and that average delivery orders in the first three weeks of February were two and a half times higher than before the Covid pandemic, while takeaway sales were five times higher.
The growing appetite for takeaways has been a lifeline for the hospitality industry, after nationwide Covid restrictions blocked pubs and restaurants from serving customers on-site due to coronavirus risks.
UK mortgage approvals dipped slightly in January.
Lenders approved 98,994 mortgages in January, down from 102,809 in December, the latest Bank of England data show.
That’s a smaller fall than expected, and sharply higher than a year ago - with approvals hitting a 13-year high back in November.
Mortgage demand jumped last year as the lockdown lifted, with the government’s temporary freeze in stamp duty also boosting demand. That holiday finishes at the end of this month, unless it is extended in Wednesday’s Budget....
Updated
UK consumer credit slumped in January lockdown
UK consumers have slashed their borrowing in January, as the latest Covid-19 lockdown hit retail spending and boosted household savings.
Reuters has the details:
British consumer borrowing fell at its fastest pace in January since May last year as the country went back into a coronavirus lockdown, Bank of England data showed on Monday.
Unsecured lending to consumers fell by 2.4 billion pounds ($3.35 billion), the biggest fall since last May’s 4.6 billion-pound drop and more than a median forecast for a 1.9 billion-pound fall in a Reuters poll of economists.
That took the year-on-year fall to 8.9%, the biggest decline since monthly records began in 1994, the BoE said.
UK supply chain disruption: What the experts say
Here’s Huw Howells, head of manufacturing and industrials at Lloyds Bank, on February’s UK manufacturing PMI report.
“International supply lines remain tangled after months of disruption which, clients are telling us, is delaying imports of in-demand materials and causing production to flatline despite rising order books. Supply challenges, particularly for businesses with large networks, will take months to iron out. In response, firms may consider creating their own certainty by onshoring supply chains. This would have a longer-term positive influence on UK manufacturing, subject of course to UK capability.
“Growing order books combined with new opportunities arising from the green recovery, including planned gigafactories in Coventry and the North East, also represent a promising outlook for the sector. This year, we hope to see ever more manufacturing businesses focussing on reducing their carbon footprint further.
“But fierce challenges persist for some, including those in aerospace supply chains. Despite some hope that the expected lifting of restrictions in the spring could drive passenger volumes and demand, it’ll take time for the sector to recover.
“Many manufacturers will be looking for certainty over the extension of furlough and other business relief measures from the Chancellor this Wednesday as they continue to buffer against headwinds.”
Richard Austin, Head of Manufacturing at BDO, says Brexit ‘frictions’ are hurting the sector.
“While the rise in the UK’s manufacturing PMI is encouraging, sentiment is notably lower than in major Eurozone economies which have reported the fastest growth in manufacturing for three years. While the vaccine roll-out is faster in the UK than in mainland Europe, this would suggest that Brexit frictions are proving challenging.
“Input price inflation which has been rising for 10 straight months also continues to weigh on sentiment, reflecting increased raw material costs and transport prices. Lengthening supply chains are also tying up working capital for longer which is putting a greater strain on manufacturers’ finances.
“The moment of heightened danger will be later this year when Government schemes begin to wind down and tax bills and loan repayments become due.
“This is why it’s so important for manufacturers that the chancellor announces a gradual winding down in support schemes at this week’s Budget.
James Brougham, Senior Economist at Make UK says there is a ‘stark contrast’ between optimism about future prospects, and the current supply chain problems.
On the one hand, business optimism stands at a high not seen in over six years, and on the other, a near record increase in supplier delivery times and cost pressures.
“The compound effects of continued Covid-19 related disruption now exacerbated by manufacturers’ cautious navigation of the new UK-EU trading arrangement has created a scenario in which logistical and supply-side challenges are limiting the rate of economic recovery for the sector.
The UK PMI report also shows there was a “continued downturn at consumer goods producers” last month.
In contrast, factories making heavy-duty ‘investment goods reported the fastest growth in output, new orders, new export business and employment.
EY Item Club’s Howard Archer says this shows consumers are more cautious:
Today’s PMI reports show that UK factories grew slower than the eurozone rivals last month, points out Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs:
UK factory output slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption
Just in: output growth at UK factories has dropped to the slowest rate since last May.
Data firm IHS Markit reports that British manufacturers suffered from supply-chain disruption and rising cost pressure in February. Many pointed to the impact of the pandemic, and disruption caused by the end of the Brexit transition period.
This meant that factory output only grew modestly last month, at the slowest rate in nine months.
Markit’s monthly healthcheck on the UK factory sector found that:
Output rose at the weakest pace during the current nine-month sequence of increase.
New orders expanded following a slight decrease in January, as domestic demand improved and new export business inched higher. Companies reported improved demand from several markets – including the US, Asia, Scandinavia and (in a few cases) mainland Europe – but noted that the ongoing impact of COVID-19, Brexit complications and shipping difficulties also constrained export order growth.
However, the broader manufacturing PMI (which also tracks new orders, supply times, input costs and employment as well as output) rose to 55.1, from 54.1 in January.
That increase was mainly due to higher raw material costs and longer delays -- which would normally be an sign of increased demand....
More encouragingly, business optimism hit a near six-and-a-half year high.
Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, says problems caused by Brexit, and the pandemic, hit UK factories.
“The UK manufacturing sector was again hit by supply-chain issues, COVID-19 restrictions, stalling exports, input shortages and rising cost pressures in February. Look past the headline PMI and the survey reveals near-stagnant production, widespread shipping and port delays and confusion following the end of the Brexit transition period.
“In fact the biggest contributor to the headline PMI reading was a near-record lengthening of supplier delivery times. However, while normally a positive sign of an increasingly busy economy, the recent lengthening was far from welcome, more often than not linked to problems resulting from Brexit and COVID related. The resultant shortages for a vast array of components and raw materials, as rising demand chased restricted supply, led to a further acceleration in input cost inflation to a four-year high.
“With current constraints likely to continue for the foreseeable future, pressure on prices and output volumes may remain a feature during the coming months. That said, improved domestic demand as lockdown restrictions ease and a further rise in manufacturers’ optimism are reasons to hope brighter times are on the horizon, and have already supported a modest rebound in staffing levels since the turn of the year.”
Updated
Eurozone factory growth jumps, and input costs soar
European manufacturers have reported the fastest rise in growth in three years -- and a surge in input costs.
The eurozone manufacturing PMI, which measures activity across the sector, jumped to 57.9 in February. That signals a strong increase in activity, up from January’s 54.8.
Factory bosses reported a jump in output and new orders last month, as the export trade strengthened.
Germany, the Netherlands and Austria reported the strongest growth, with only Greece weakening.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, says European manufacturers are growing strongly as customers plan for a post-pandemic recovery.
“Manufacturing is appearing as an increasingly bright spot in the eurozone’s economy so far this year. The PMI has reached a three-year high to run at a level that has rarely been exceeded in more than two-decades of survey history – notably during the dot-com bubble, the initial rebound from the global financial crisis and in 2017-18.
Producers are benefitting from resurgent demand for goods in both domestic and export markets, linked to post-COVID recovery hopes driving renewed stock building and investment in business equipment and machinery, as well as improved consumption
This also led to longer delivery times as firms battled for raw materials and components. -- leading to the biggest jump in cost inflation in nearly a decade.
The PMI report explains:
Amid widespread reports of delays and difficulties in sourcing inputs thanks to an upturn in global demand and ongoing transportation challenges related to COVID-19, input costs subsequently rose sharply with inflation reaching its highest recorded for nearly a decade.
After an hour’s trading, the FTSE 100 is now up 124 points or 1.9% at 6607.
That lifts the blue-chip index away from Friday’s lows (the weakest closing level in almost a month).
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says a “relief rally” is lifting stocks, with the rising oil price boosting the energy sector.
“There has been a pause for breath after the bond market sell-off stabilised, although inflation concerns remain near the surface.
Those fears of inflation have certainly not gone away but attention has shifted back, perhaps temporarily, to the immediate positive drivers which could propel a strong economic rebound.
More generally, the success so far of the vaccine rollouts and the pent-up consumer demand which has partly been due to enforced savings are preparing the ground for a spending spree later in the year. In the US, the increasing likelihood of the President’s proposed stimulus package could initiate a strong road to recovery.
Halfords to repay furlough cash as cycling boom lifts profits
Car and bicycle product retailer Halfords has hiked its profit forecasts this morning, as the pandemic continues to create a cycling boom.
Halfords told the City that trading has been better than expected so far this year, with like-for-like sales growth up 6% from 2 January 2021 to 19 February 2021.
Despite journeys being c.40% below pre-pandemic levels, our Autocentre business has continued to demonstrate signs of growing market share, with strong demand for both our garage business and Halfords Mobile Expert vans.
While motoring sales were down 14% (due to travel restrictions), cycling sales have jumped 43% year-on-year since the start of 2021, helping to lift retail revenues by 5.1%
It now expects underlying profits of £90m-£100m this financial year (to early April), up from £55.9m a year ago.
With profits swelling, Halfords is also repaying £10.7m of furlough money received by the government to cover the wages of staff who were temporarily sidelined.
Shares in Halfords have surged 17% this morning.
Oil is also recovering this morning.
Brent crude has jumped 1.8% to $65.60 per barrel, towards last week’s 13-month high over $67.
Energy demand should pick up strongly as economies reopen this year (unless inflation concerns were to force central bankers to raise interest rates, denting growth).
All the major European stock markets are bouncing in early trading, lifting the Stoxx 600 by over 1.5%.
Stocks are benefiting from vaccine optimism again, alongside relief that government bond prices have recovered this morning.
Naeem Aslam of Avatrade says:
Investors have decided to focus on brighter aspects of things such as the J&J’s one-shot vaccine and the US House passing the stimulus bill.
Something that is supporting the sentiment among investors and traders is optimism on the coronavirus vaccine. Over the weekend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory panel voted unanimously to recommend the use of Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot coronavirus vaccine. People 18 years of age and older can have this one-shot vaccine, and J&J is expected to ship out 4 million doses.
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The smaller FTSE 250 index, which includes more UK-focused companies, has jumped by 1.5% in early trading.
Luxury carmaker Aston Martin is the top riser, up almost 7%.
Building groups Bellway (+4.7%) and Redrow (+4.5%) are close behind - as investors anticipate more help for house-buyers in Wednesday’s Budget.
Travel companies are also making gains, with cruise operator Carnival and holiday operator TUI both up around 3.5%.
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FTSE 100 jumps 1.3%
Britain’s stock market has come roaring out of the gate, with the FTSE 100 index jumping by 87 points or 1.35% to 6570.
Housebuilders are leading the rally, with Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon both up nearly 5%.
Airline group IAG are also in the top risers, gaining 4.4% in early trading.
Nearly every blue-chip stock is up, as the Footsie quickly recovers more than half of Friday’s slump.
China’s factory growth slowed to a nine-month low in February, data released over the weekend shows.
The latest Chinese manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.9, the lowest since May. That’s weaker than expected, and close to the 50-point mark showing stagnation.
Companies reported slower rises in both output and new work, for the third month running. New export orders fell, indicating weaker demand from overseas as the pandemic continues to hit the global economy with many countries still in lockdown.
Suppliers were also hit by raw material shortages and transport delays.
However, companies are also “strongly optimistic” that output will rise over the next year amid hopes of a rebound in global economic conditions.
Bloomberg also sees calm returning to the markets after last week’s volatility:
Sovereign bonds extended a rebound, U.S. and European equity futures rose and the dollar dipped Monday, signaling calmer markets after the turmoil sparked last week by a slide in government debt.
Benchmark Treasury yields fluctuated around 1.40% and Australian and New Zealand debt rallied. Australia’s 10-year yield slid the most in a year after the central bank doubled down on bond purchases to pacify fixed-income markets.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 equity futures advanced, while Japan led a bounce back in Asian stocks...
More here: Sovereign Bonds Gain; Stocks, Equity Futures Climb: Markets Wrap
Introduction: Markets recover as bond yield spike fades
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After a late-February wobble, the markets are starting March with a spring in their steps.
Anxiety over rising government bond yields, which gripped investors last week, have faded a little as bond prices recover this morning, and traders anticipate an economic recovery this year.
The yield (or interest rates) on US Treasury bills is dipping back from the highs seen last week. It’s down to around 1.4% in early trading, having spiked to one-year highs over 1.5% last week.
This bond market recovery is good for equities - Japan’s Nikkei has rebounded, jumping 697 points or 2.4% to 29,663, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.5%.
Britain’s FTSE 100 (which suffered its biggest plunge since October on Friday), is due for a positive start too -- up around 0.8% in pre-market.
Last week’s sell-off in government bonds jolted the markets. Investors faced the possibility that rising inflation could force central bankers to raise interest rates (something they’re really not keen to do).
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank predicts the central bankers will push back this week, telling clients:
There is little doubt in my mind that central banks will eventually lean quite hard against a sustained rise in yields. They simply can’t afford to see it happen with debt so high.
So far though, Fed officials have been largely relaxed over the recent moves, suggesting that it reflects more positive economic growth. But as it all happened so fast last week they will have had a chance to regroup and align their message for this week.
There’s also relief today that the US House of Representatives has passed Joe Biden’s $1.9tn coronavirus aid bill. That should send more emergency financial aid to households, small businesses and state and local governments, once the package has been approved by the Senate too.
Plus, America’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized Johnson & Johnson’s (J&J) vaccine for emergency use - which should help the Biden White House tackle the pandemic.
A flurry of manufacturing surveys from across the world are being released today, which will show how UK, European and US factories fared last month.
Plus we get the latest estimate of inflation (the issue of the moment!) in Germany, and new UK housing data -- just as chancellor Rishi Sunak prepares to announces (we think) a mortgage guarantee scheme to help buyers with small deposits.
The agenda
- 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI survey for February
- 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI survey for February
- 9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit data for January
- 1pm GMT: German inflation rate in February
- 3pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI survey for February
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