Closing summary
That’s all for today. A quick recap:
Stock markets have bounced back from yesterday’s losses, amid signs that the global economic recovery is continuing.
The UK’s FTSE 100 has jumped back over the 7,000 point mark, ending the day at its highest close in 14 months. Mining shares led the recovery.
Wall Street has also recovered, as anxiety over the possibility of US interest rate rises receded.
The US economic picture brightened, with companies hiring 742,000 extra staff last month, and service sector companies reporting rapid growth..and rapidly rising raw material costs.
The eurozone also improved, with private sector growth rebounding in April. Economists said the eurozone’s recession appears to be ending.
In the UK, car sales picked up as showrooms reopened, while van sales hit an April record.
Here are more of today’s stories:
Goodnight. GW
The billionaire petrol station tycoons the Issa brothers are on the verge of finalising their £6.8bn debt-fuelled buyout of the supermarket chain Asda, after offering to address concerns raised by the competition regulator.
The Blackburn-based brothers, who leased their first petrol station in 1999, are in the midst of a buying spree that has seen them snap up upmarket the fast food chain Leon, with Caffè Nero thought to be next on their shopping list.
Their most ambitious deal yet now looks certain to go ahead virtually unabridged, after they and their private equity partner TDR Capital offered to sell 27 petrol stations to allay competition concerns.
More here:
Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG secures financing for Australian Whyalla steelwork
GFG Alliance, the metals empire owned by the industrialist Sanjeev Gupta agreed terms on new financing for a key part of its business located in South Australia, potentially staving off a threat to thousands of jobs.
Liberty Steel also announced the appointment of four directors to the board of a Singapore holding company, Liberty Steel Group Pte Limited, to “lead and accelerate the restructuring and refinancing”.
The four directors will be given “full autonomy to restructure Liberty’s operations to focus on core profitable units, and either fix or sell underperforming units”.
Here’s the full story:
Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG, says today’s economic data shows the US economy is recovering well:
While ADP numbers fell short of some of the loftier expectations today, a 742,000 increase in job numbers is welcome news, and when coupled with strong Markit and ISM services PMI readings it is clear that the world’s largest economy is well on the way to a recovery.
And Europe could soon follow.... which is helping stocks jump on this side of the Atlantic, including in London:
The cyclical recovery play is in fine form on the FTSE 100, with miners, banks and housebuilders on the up and Ocado, the sole real tech/growth firm in the index, dropping sharply. After a struggle in March and April the UK’s headline index is back at the highs for the year, and seemingly-determined to keep going.
It has made sense to keep faith with the FTSE 100 in recent months, buying the dips in a way that would have been a very bad idea in the summer, when growth stocks were all the rage. Further strong data from the US and elsewhere should mean the cyclical stocks that are today’s winners will keep moving higher in the long-term.
European markets just had their best day in almost two months, as they bounced back from Tuesday’s wobble.
Germany’s DAX gained 2.1%, France’s CAC picked up 1.4% and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 2%, as stocks recovered a lot of yesterday’s fall.
The Stoxx 600 index ended 1.8% higher, its best day since 8th March.
European tech stocks jumped by 2.7%, having slumped 3.7% the previous session, as Janet Yellen’s comments about future US interest rate rises hit the sector.
Reuters points out that decent company results also lifted the market:
German cooking appliances maker Rational jumped 12.7% to the top of the STOXX 600, after it posted better-than-expected first-quarter results.
Danish shipping company Maersk was up 6.9% after it said it was expecting an “exceptionally strong” performance in the first quarter to continue for the rest of the year.
Stellantis rallied 7.0% after the carmaker reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue but warned that a global shortage of semiconductors would affect production this quarter more heavily.
German fashion house Hugo Boss rose 5.2% as it saw first-quarter sales almost double in mainland China, and its casual business returned to growth.
Just 24 hours ago, the markets were fretting about the risk of US interest rate rises.
They seem to have got over them, with the US Dow Jones just hitting a new record....
FTSE 100 hits 14-month high as miners surge
In the City, a late surge has sent the UK’s FTSE 100 index to its highest level since the early days of the pandemic, more than a year ago.
The blue-chip index hit 7,047.75 points in late afternoon trading, a 14-month high, before closing at 7,039 points.
That’s a gain of 1.7% or 116 points, the FTSE 100’s biggest one-day jump since mid-February.
It takes the Footsie to its highest close since late February 2020, when the first wave of Covid-19 hit Europe.
Mining giants led the way, on expectations of high demand for commodities such as iron ore, coal, copper, nickel and zinc this year as the global economy recovers.
Today’s strong service sector data from Europe, and the US, will have underpinned hopes of a bounceback in the coming months.
Anglo American jumped 6%, to the top of the FTSE 100, with BHP Group up 5%, and Rio Tinto gaining 4.7%.
Irish construction giant CRH gained 5.3%, lifted by the prospect of more business in the US as president Biden pushes for more spending on infrastructure.
European markets have also rebounded, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index leaping by 1.8% today -- putting Tuesday’s tumble well behind it.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says:
Having seen large falls yesterday, markets appear to have recovered some of their mojo rebounding strongly today with the FTSE 100 back above the 7,000 level once more, while the DAX has recovered back above the 15,000 level, as the focus returns to the economic prospects of various companies as restrictions continue to get lifted.
Basic resource stocks are leading the way today with the likes of Anglo American, BHP and Rio Tinto benefitting from the continued rise in copper prices, while Irish construction giant CRH has seen its share trade up at new record highs as optimism over the upcoming US infrastructure stimulus plan helped to underpin the shares. The US is one of CRH’s biggest markets.
Shares in fitness company Peloton have tumbled over 12% today after it announced it is recalling its two popular treadmills in the US over safety concerns, after the death of a child and dozens of other injuries.
My colleague Richard Luscombe has the story:
Peloton has apologized for pushing back against federal safety officials who warned the public last month of the dangers of using them.
The recall is a major reversal for a company that insisted its Tread and Tread+ treadmills were safe despite reports by users.
“I want to be clear, Peloton made a mistake in our initial response to the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s request that we recall the Tread+,” Peloton’s chief executive John Foley said in a statement issued on Wednesday. “We should have engaged more productively with them from the outset. For that, I apologize.”
US service sector activity surges
America’s service sector saw a surge of activity last month as its economy picked up, according to two rival surveys of purchasing managers today.
IHS Markit’s US services PMI is particularly strong, showing that business activity expanded at the fastest pace on record amid a a “marked uptick” in client demand.
This pushed its Services PMI to 64.7 from 60.4 in March, the highest since the survey began in 2009.
Business reported the fastest increase in new business on record, which led to a rise in backlog of works, and a surge of hiring.
They also faced higher costs - input costs jumped at the quickest rate on record as suppliers hiked their prices. This had a knock-on effect, with firms passing on higher prices to their customers through the fastest rise in charges on record.
A second PMI survey, from the Institute of Supply Management, also shows America’s services sector roared back in April.
ISM’s services PMI has dipped slightly, to 62.7% from the record high of 63.7% set in March.
That shows a slight slowdown, but still very rapid growth.
Companies told ISM they were still seeing strong demand, leading to production-capacity constraints and material shortages.
Here are some quotes from ISM’s report:
- Restaurant capacity is increasing quickly as restrictions are removed. Consumers have pent-up demand; sales are increasing, and the labor pool is tight. Supply chain is challenged at every level as businesses across the U.S. ramp up.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
- “Delays in container deliveries are now impacting our business.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
- “Consistent with the past year, labor continues to be the biggest issue we are facing. Finding and retaining labor — skilled and unskilled — is highly challenging and frustrating. As the challenges continue, we are not accepting all the work that we could if we had the labor.” (Construction)
On Wall Street, tech companies are recovering a little of Tuesday’s selloff.
The Nasdaq has gained 61 points, or 0.45%, to 13,694, having slumped almost 2% yesterday as interest rate rise fears hit stocks.
Some major tech giants are up, with Apple gaining 1.5%, Alphabet rising 0.6%, and Microsoft picking up 0.2% .
Facebook is flat, after its oversight board concluded that Donald Trump’s account should not be reinstated, but gave the social media giant six months to decide whether the suspension should remain in place permanently.
The Dow Jones industrial average is flat too. Oil company Chevron (+2.6%) and chemicals maker Dow Inc (+2.4%) are topping the risers, but aircraft maker Boeing (-1.8%) and fast food chain McDonalds (-0.9%) are leading the fallers.
Today’s ADP private sector payroll report is a jobs taster ahead of Friday, when we get the total Non-Farm Payroll of US employment.
Wall Street thinks the NFP will show nearly a million new jobs were created last month, as the economy picked up.
Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics explains:
The pick-up in [ADP] employment growth isn’t as strong as we had been expecting, especially given the recent boost to demand from the fiscal stimulus, and could be a sign that the increasingly widespread reports of labour shortages are starting to constrain hiring.
That said, it’s worth stressing that the initial ADP estimate has undershot the official BLS measure of private employment growth in 11 of the past 12 months, and sometimes by a significant margin. The likelihood of a strong rebound in public-sector employment, as schools reopen and fiscal aid to state & local governments feeds through, is another reason to expect that overall non-farm payrolls posted a stronger gain last month.
James Picerno of The Capital Spectator also points out that the US labor market has ‘a long way to go’ to return to its pre-pandemic size:
US factories continued to hire staff in April too, with manufacturing payrolls jumping by 55,000.
Construction firms took on an extra 41,000 workers, according to ADP.
Sam Ro of Yahoo Finance shows how US leisure and hospitality firms created the most jobs last month:
ADP have also revised up March’s payroll figures, to show an extra 48,000 new jobs were created (taking March’s total to 565k, from 517k).
That partly makes up for April’s payroll total missing forecasts (742k, below the 800k expected)
Greg Daco of Oxford Economics says April’s data is ‘solid’, with small, medium-sized and large firms all hiring more staff.
The US jobs market strengthened in April, says Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, with the 742,000 increase in company payrolls.
“The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading since September 2020.
But...Richardson adds that US payrolls are still missing eight million jobs lost since the pandemic began, despite the recent recovery.
“Service providers have the most to gain as the economy reopens, recovers and resumes normal activities and are leading job growth in April. While payrolls are still more than 8 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels, job gains have totaled 1.3 million in the last two months after adding only about 1 million jobs over the course of the previous five months.”
Updated
US private payrolls jumped by 742k in April
American companies created 742,000 new jobs last month, as the US economy strengthened.
That’s the biggest jump in private company payrolls since last September, according to ADP, the payroll provider.
It’s slightly less than forecast (economists expected an 800,000 increase), but it still looks like a strong month, as stimulus spending and vaccinations drive demand.
Services companies increased their payrolls by 636,000 last month, including 237,000 in leisure and hospitality firms alone, as the reopening gathered pace.
Goods producers added 106,000 new staff.
Reaction to follow...
Oil is pushing higher, amid expectations of stronger demand as economies reopen.
Brent crude has jumped 1.2% to $69.70 per barrel, its highest level since mid-March.
A drop in US crude stockpiles has also pushed prices up, says Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, adding:
Reopenings in Europe and the U.S. added to the demand revival, thereby helping offset concerns about weaker demand in parts of virus-hit Asia.
Some reaction to the drop in US mortgage applications last week:
In the US, the number of mortgage application has dipped, down 0.9% last week.
US house prices have surged 12% in the last year, the fastest jump since 2006, partly driven by limited supply, and rising demand as the economy reopened. This could now be putting homes out of more families’ reach.
But while loan numbers fell, average loan amounts rose as people stretched themselves to get onto the housing ladder, or move up it.
Joel Kan, economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (who compile the data) explains:
“This is a sign that the competitive purchase market, driven by low housing inventory and high demand, is pushing prices higher and weighing down on activity.”
Updated
Vauxhall's Luton van factory restarts third shift as demand rises
More van news... Stellantis, the owner of Vauxhall, has announced it will restart a third shift at its Luton van plant to take advantage of rising demand for commercial vehicles.
The carmaker, which was created this year from the merger of Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler, will produce cars around the clock once 400 workers return from furlough. It will also hire about 120 new workers as part of the plans.
The factory has a capacity of 100,000 vans per year. Production will start in June, although workers will be at the plant for training from May.
The company said it needed the extra shift:
“in order to satisfy the increased demand for the Vauxhall Vivaro, Opel Vivaro, Citroën Jumpy/Dispatch and Peugeot Expert light commercial vehicles.”
Stellantis earlier on Wednesday warned that computer chip shortages that have held back production are expected to worsen. It did not give any details about whether it will extend production at the Ellesmere Port plant near Liverpool, which is awaiting an investment decision.
Online fashion retailer Boohoo has seen its sales and profits soared during the coronavirus pandemic.
Unlike its high street rivals, Boohoo benefited from the boom in online shopping and being able to trade throughout successive lockdowns,
My colleague Joanna Partridge explains:
Demand from younger consumers for its inexpensive activewear, loungewear and tops while working from home helped Boohoo’s sales climb by 41% to £1.7bn, up from £1.2bn a year earlier.
Boohoo’s adjusted pre-tax profit climbed by 37% in the 12 months to 28 February to a better-than-expected £174m as the group’s customers shrugged off concerns about the group’s supply chain, following last summer’s allegations that linked it to factories with poor working conditions in Leicester and abroad.
Sarah Riding, retail partner at law firm Gowling WLG, adds:
“Despite the ethical supply chain challenges of recent years, the opportunities presented by lockdown to the brand have been capitalised on to tune of this record turnaround. Maintaining this renaissance as we move out of lockdown and competition intensifies will be challenging but one that benefits the customer as the market vies for its attention.”
UK van sales hit April record as economic confidence builds
UK van sales jumped to their highest level on record for an April, adding to the signs of pent-up demand in the automotive industry as lockdowns ease.
There were 30,440 new vans registered during the month, according to data also released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). That’s 23% higher than the pre-pandemic average, as well as an April record.
Vans make up a relatively small but important part of the UK manufacturing industry, with 1,200 workers at Vauxhall’s Luton van plant, as well as nascent electric van production from the likes of taxi maker LEVC and startup Arrival. Ford also designs its Transit vans in the UK.
The jump in sales to record highs contrasts with today’s slower - albeit marked - recovery in car sales, which remain about 13% below the pre-pandemic average.
Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said:
Businesses are investing in new vehicles as they grow in confidence, driven by a more positive economic outlook stimulated by the vaccine rollout. There has been particular uplift in larger van uptake, both from established demand in home delivery, but also more broadly as other sectors emerge from lockdown looking to maximise their payload efficiency.
With a fragile supply chain still subject to risk of disruption and ongoing Covid restrictions, there is some way to go before we can say business is back to normal, but after a very difficult year, the outlook is much brighter.
And here’s Mark Sweney on ITV’s hopes for a surge in adverts this summer:
ITV is predicting a summertime ad boom, with revenues expected to be up as much as 90% year on year, fuelled by the return of must-watch content including Love Island and football’s European Championship.
ITV, which said that total TV advertising was down 6% in the first quarter because of the impact of the latest coronavirus lockdown restrictions on brands spending on campaigns, is forecasting a strong second-quarter recovery.
“We finished the quarter strongly with the substantial majority of our shows back in production and a recovery in the advertising market,” said Carolyn McCall, the chief executive of ITV. “We are encouraged by the UK roadmap out of lockdown and remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead.”
Here’s our news story on the jump in car sales in April, by my colleague Jasper Jolly:
Today’s burst of economic optimism has now pushed the FTSE 100 back over 7000 points again.
It’s now up 80 points or 1.2% at 7003 points. It was higher at times yesterday, but it’s not closed that high in over two weeks.
European markets are holding their gains too - with the Stoxx 600 still up 1.3%, thanks to gains in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, Madrid and Amsterdam.
Quite a turnaround from yesterday, when the main indices all fell.
As Sophie Griffiths, Market Analyst at OANDA, says the jump in the eurozone PMI in April is boosting optimism.
After steep losses in the previous session, European bourses are flying higher today, helped by strong earnings and accelerating business activity in the region.
Yesterday’s sell-off was just the tonic to fire up the bulls, who had been complacent with stocks hovering around all-time highs. Tuesday’s declines served as a reminder that valuations are lofty. However, today’s strong corporate updates and upbeat PMI data are supportive of further gains.
Oxford Economics: Eurozone will return to growth this quarter
The jump in eurozone private sector growth last month shows that “the worst” is over, says Nicola Nobile, lead Eurozone economist at Oxford Economics.
She predicts the eurozone downturn will end this quarter, with a return to growth after a double-dip recession.
Today’s PMI report is “clearly positive and offered some bright spots”, she says, with the composite PMI rising to 53.8 in April, mild growth in the services sector, and record high factory growth in some countries.
Nobile adds:
Overall, after a GDP drop of 0.6% in Q1, the vaccination progress and the gradual reopening of some of the economies point to a GDP increase already in Q2, in line with our call since February this year.
While the uncertainty is still high at the moment with respect to the magnitude of the rebound, our bottom-up forecast now points to a quarterly GDP increase of around 1.5%
Eurozone 'pulling out of recession' as company growth strengthens
April was also a better month for eurozone companies. After falling into recession just last week, the eurozone economy may have turned the corner.
Eurozone companies grew at the fastest pace since last July in April, and at the second-fastest rate in over two-and-a-half years, according to the latest survey of eurozone purchasing managers.
Eurozone factories led the recovery with record growth; its PMI hit a record 62.9 (released on Monday), due to a surge in orders, output, and prices.
Encouragingly the tumble in the service sector bottomed out last month, with services firms returning to growth after shrinking for seven months in a row during the pandemic.
The services PMI rose to 50.5, from March’s mildly contractionary 49.6. But while Spain’s service sector grew strongly, there was only marginal growth in France while Germany and Italy services firms contracted.
This lifted IHS Markit’s Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index to 53.8, up from 53.2 in March (any reading over 50 shows growth).
Business expectations surged to their highest in a decade, as firms showed more optimism about prospects. Employment also jumped... as did rising raw materials costs, with the composite input prices index jumping to its highest in 10 years.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, says the PMI report suggests the eurozone will return to growth this quarter - as Covid-19 vaccinations speed up and economies reopen.
“April’s survey data provide encouraging evidence that the eurozone will pull out of its double-dip recession in the second quarter. A manufacturing boom, fueled by surging demand both in domestic and export markets as many economies emerge from lockdowns, is being accompanied by signs that the service sector has now also returned to growth.
“Barring any further wave of infections from new variants, Covid restrictions should ease further in the coming months, driving a strengthening of service sector business activity which should gain momentum as we go through the summer.
Younger people have been flocking to book driving tests since they relaunched last month, says Sue Robinson, chief executive of the National Franchised Dealers Association:
“It is extremely encouraging to see sales of new cars bounce back in April reflecting the significant pent-up demand as the lockdown was eased across the UK and dealerships reopened.
Customer footfall at dealerships is strong and driving schools are seeing a major increase in young people booking driving tests. All of this leads us to believe that there is a very upbeat outlook ahead for the motor industry in the summer and retailers are looking forward to a further release of the pent-up demand accumulated over the past months.”
Driving tests are another area where demand is outstripping supply, though. Some learner drivers have said test slots are “like gold dust”, with a year’s backlog to get through.
Richard Peberdy, automotive lead at KPMG, also predicts that car supply may not keep pace with demand:
“The sales rebound signifies returning consumer confidence as showrooms reopen.
“Demand could outstrip supply as global production remains constrained by parts shortages. But, at least initially, such a scenario is not unhelpful to dealers, holding on to margin and being less reliant on discounting to shift stock. This could be critical for bricks-and-mortar showrooms hit hard by lockdown, and also facing increasing competition from online players and carmakers’ direct-to-consumer propositions.
He’s also encouraged that sales of plug-in electric cars rose (accounting for just over one in eight vehicles in April):
“Strengthening plug-in vehicle sales is encouraging, with demand buoyed by increasing numbers of attractive products available - and as motorists and businesses plan ahead, mindful of schemes such as the expansion of the London Ultra Low Emission Zone in October.”
The global shortage of semiconductors could hurt the UK car industry’s recovery hopes, though.
Seán Kemple, managing director of Close Brothers Motor Finance, fears that the scramble for chips, alongside wider supply chain problems, will mean more disruption this year:
Just as things are looking up for the motor industry, it’s been slammed by a wave of turbulence caused by a global semiconductor shortage. And given how vital these chips are to the industry, in use in everything from power steering to parking sensors, this will have an impact. Car manufacturers like Ford, MINI and Jaguar Land Rover are halting production in the face of severe disruption, which escalated in April. While new car sales have shot up this month, there’s no doubt that demand will be squeezed by an ensuing supply crisis.
Already facing a supply bottleneck due to delays caused by Covid-19 and the aftermath of Brexit, the chip shortage will further push back waiting times for consumers ordering new cars and come at a huge cost for a market recovering from substantial losses.
This disruption won’t be resolved immediately, but the strength of the industry will push it to continue to navigate the challenges thrown its way, and dealers remain agile and engaged with consumers to meet the huge demand in the marketplace as much as possible.”
SMMT raises car sales forecast as economic outlook improves.
The SMMT has also slightly lifted its forecast for car registrations this year, expecting stronger demand as the economy reopens.
With the economic outlook brightening, the lockdown being eased, and Covid-19 vaccination programmes running speedily, the UK auto industry now expects to sell 1.86m new cars this year.
That’s up from an estimate of 1.83m in February, and would be a 13.9% increase on 2020’s levels (when sales slumped to just 1.63m, their lowest since 1992).
However, this would still be around 20% less than the average in the last decade (around 2.33m), which illustrates how the recovery will take time.
The SMMT adds:
Demand is likely to be driven by a broad range of new models and powertrains, with confidence bolstered by the gradual reopening of the country.
This table from the SMMT shows how UK new car sales rose by more than 3,000% year-on-year in April, as the reopening of showrooms and the easing of lockdown restrictions boosted demand....
...but despite that dramatic percentage change, sales were still almost 13% lower than an average April over the last decade.
The Vauxhall Corsa was the most popular car last month, and over 2021 so far....
UK car sales show 'light at end of tunnel'
The UK car registrations figures are out... and as expected, they confirm that sales last month were rather stronger than in the first lockdown, as car showrooms reopened.
The SMMT reports that 141,583 new cars were registered in April - compared to just 4,321 in the same month a year ago, during the first lockdown.
But, that’s still around 12.9% down on an average April over the last decade, and lower than in 2019 (when 161,064 new cars were registered).
Sales so far this year are still much lower than normal - at 567,108 registrations, around 32.5% down on the average recorded over the past decade.
However, the full impact of showrooms reopening on 12 April hasn’t yet filtered through, the SMMt adds, as there’s usually a delay between visiting a dealership, picking a car, and then taking delivery.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, says the recovery will take time:
“After one of the darkest years in automotive history, there is light at the end of the tunnel. A full recovery for the sector is still some way off, but with showrooms open and consumers able to test drive the latest, cleanest models, the industry can begin to rebuild.
Market confidence is improving, and we now expect to finish the year in a slightly better position than anticipated in February, largely thanks to the more upbeat business and consumer confidence created by the successful vaccine rollout. That confidence should also translate into another record year for electric vehicles, which will likely account for more than one in seven new car registrations.”
Updated
European markets rebounding
European stock markets are all pushing higher this morning.
Germany’s DAX, which posted its biggest fall of 2021 yesterday (down 2.5%), is clawing back some losses - up around 1.3% this morning.
Britain’s FTSE 100 is continuing to rally too, now nearly back at the 7,000 point mark (which it hit in April, for the first time since the pandemic).
Investors seem more sanguine about the possibility of US interest rate rises, after Janet Yellen suggested a ‘very modest’ hike may be needed at some stage.
Any hike would only follow strong growth and employment gains -- which ought to be good for stocks, really...
Neil Wilson of Markets.com has a good take about this:
The old ‘sell in May’ adage is doing the rounds of course. On seasonality, Stifel says: “We see the S&P 500 flat/down -5-10% May 1st to Oct-31st, 2021: Seasonality is especially applicable at this moment in time”. And Bank of America notes that the May-October period has the lowest average and median returns of any equivalent six-month period, looking at data going back to 1928. Maybe there is something in the ‘sell in May’ trope. Certainly, given the run-up in equities we have seen, the well understood macro picture and the propensity for yields to edge higher, a period of cooling off seems reasonable.
Earnings are powering ahead – we’ve just entering the last stretch of a blowout quarter in both the US and Europe. But this has been largely priced. Can corporates keep up the pace? The second quarter is meant to be even better – stimulus cheques are back, and GDP growth is seen powering ahead. Markets may not truly reflect just how strong this recovery will be.
According to the Atlanta Fed Q2 growth is seen at 13.2% and the US economy will exceed its pre-pandemic peak before the quarter is over (as it should when you have pumped something like 20%-30% of GDP into the economy by way of fiscal stimulus and emergency relief packages). The money supply has ballooned; now is the time for the velocity of money to recover. We should be careful; we are already seeing some heinous year-on-year chart crime as economies recover.
Spending seems to be strong as the reopening of the global economy, but companies are experiencing supply chain problems and raw material shortages. This ought to push up inflation, raising nominal bond yields (though not necessarily real rates), which could hinder equity market returns over the coming months.
The plunge in car sales under lockdown, the drop in car journeys and the suspension of driving lessons have all meant people are spending less on car insurance.
Car insurer Direct Line reports that its total motor premiums fell by 10% in the first quarter of 2021, compared to a year ago.
Direct Line, which also operates the Churchill and Privilege brands, says there are “deflationary motor market conditions” (good news for drivers!).
That’s due to fewer insurance claims (fewer cars on the road = fewer accidents), as well as the drop in demand, especially as driving lessons only restarted in England, Wales and Scotland last month.
Direct Line says:
The first quarter saw similar motor market trends to those at the end of 2020, namely subdued claims frequency, low levels of new car sales and fewer new drivers entering the market. This led to further motor market premium deflation in the quarter.
Australia’s stock market has hit at a new pandemic high.
The ASX 200 index closed at its highest level since February 2020 (when the first wave of Covid-19 triggered a global selloff), lifted by economic recovery hopes.
Jeffrey Halley of OANDA says strong economic data, and bumper results from ANZ Bank, lifted the market.
Australian markets have rallied once again as ANZ posted bumper results, Services PMI rose to 58.80, and Building Permits exploded higher by 17.40% as commodity prices continued to rise overnight.
The avalanche of positive news sees the ASX 200 rising 0.75%, while the All Ordinaries has added 0.55%.
FTSE 100 opens: Miners lead stock market higher
In the City, shares have opened higher as traders put Tuesday’s wobble behind them.
The FTSE 100 index is up 39 points, or 0.55%, at 6962 points.
Mining companies are buoyant, with Anglo American (+2.1%), BHP Group (+2.1%), Rio Tinto (2%) and Glencore (+2%) all in the risers. They should benefit from a strong economic recovery this year, with commodity prices having surged in recent months.
Specialist chemicals maker Croda is also rallying, up around 2%, after announcing a strategic review of its industrial markets business.
Irish building materials group CRH is also gaining, up 2.5% in early trading to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard.
Technology companies are still under pressure, though - with takeaway delivery group Just Eat down 1.5% and Ocado dropping 1.6%, after America’s Nasdaq index fell nearly 2% yesterday.
ITV: Love Island and Euros should boost ad revenues
ITV is hoping that the delayed UEFA Euro 2020 championships, and the return of Love Island, will boost its forecasts this summer.
The UK broadcaster is already seeing a rebound. Advertising revenues surged by around two-thirds in April compared to a year ago (during the first wave of the pandemic), having dropped by 6% in the first quarter of 2021.
And it expects this burst of spending to continue in May and June, thanks to football and reality TV, plus a boost from businesses reopening after the lockdown.
Carolyn McCall, ITV’s chief executive, said:
“We have made a good start to 2021 with total revenue and total viewing both up, despite the continuing impact of the pandemic. We finished the quarter strongly with the substantial majority of our shows back in production and a recovery in the advertising market.
“We are encouraged by the UK roadmap out of lockdown and remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Our advertising revenues are rebounding from last year with April up 68% and we expect May to be up around 85% and June up between 85% and 90%, compared to the same period in 2020. This is driven by UK COVID-19 restrictions being reduced and a strong schedule featuring Love Island and the Euros.
UK challenger bank Virgin Money has returned to profit - another signal that the economy is picking up.
Virgin Money made a £72m statutory pre-tax profit in the six months to 31 March, up from a loss of £7m in the same period a year ago (and a £161m loss in April-September 2020).
CEO David Duffy says the bank is ‘cautiously optimistic’, but sees an uncertain economic outlook:
We are cautiously optimistic about the improving outlook as the impact of the vaccination programme in the UK delivers positive revisions to economic expectations.
We’re continuing to manage through what is still an uncertain economic backdrop, but the bank is well placed, with a strong balance sheet, and through ongoing strategic delivery we have a clear path to long-term, improved sustainable returns.”
Virgin is setting aside less money to cover bad debts - an extra £38m for the last quarter, compared with £232m a year ago.
However, some larger banks, such as Lloyds and HSBC, have started releasing some of these provisions, concluding that fewer customers will default on their loans than feared.
Updated
Introduction: UK car sales rally in April
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After a torrid 12 months, car sales in the UK are finally on the road to recovery.
Data due this morning will show that car sales jumped last month as dealers in England and Wales reopened their doors, following the easing of lockdown measures in mid-April which allowed non-essential shops to reopen.
Preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders are expected to show a 30-fold year-on-year increase in car sales for last month.
That’s compared to the nadir of the first lockdown; sales plunged by 97% in April 2020 to just 4,321 new vehicles, the worst month since shortly after the second world war.
This April, car showrooms were back open again (from Monday April 12) - rather than relying on online sales methods such as click-and-collect.
Last month, customers were able to buy cars in person from April 12 in England whilst delivery, click and collect and online services also facilitated purchases. Plants have continued to operate with COVID safe measures in place.
Sales stood at around 141,000 vehicles last month, still down 13% on the 2010-2019 monthly average, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said on Wednesday.
However, that would still leave sales below their level in April 2019, when there were 161,064 new car registrations.
Clearly demand is still being affected by the pandemic, with some people working from home rather than the office, furloughed, or having lost their job in the last year.
And this rising demand may put more pressure on manufacturers, who are already struggling to source components such as semiconductors, as supply chains feel the strain.
Last month both Mini and Jaguar Land Rover temporarily shut down some production, because of the shortage of computer chips.
Yesterday, Germany’s Infineon warned that the global chip shortage could mean 2.5m lost car sales in the first half of 2021.
We get the car sales figures at 9am UK time....
Also coming up today
European stock markets are set for a higher open, after wobbling yesterday after Treasury secretary (and former central bank chief) Janet Yellen startled investors by talking about the need to raise interest rates.
Tech stocks slumped after Yellen’s suggested that some very modest rate rises could be needed to prevent the economy overheating, due to the Biden administration’s massive infrastructure and welfare spending plans.
Yellen later clarified the remarks, saying she wasn’t predicting or recommending rate hikes, which seems to to have given investors some reassurance....
Of course, record low interest rates can’t last forever, but the path higher could be rocky. As Chris Weston of brokerage Pepperstone explains:
Ultimately, we all know that the investment made by the Biden Administration will need to be offset by tighter monetary policy in the future, so these comments should in no way shock but hearing it from a high-level official makes the market nervous.
Again, a world where we see lower liquidity from central banks is a world questioning how financial assets perform, as so much of the future performance has been brought forward. And as the gravy train is pulled away, it brings the extreme valuation into question and ascribes a lower risk premium. This will mean higher volatility.
On the economic front, we get a healthcheck on Europe’s service sector companies - which may show a return to growth after the eurozone fell into recession last week.
The latest US private payroll data could move the markets - it’s likely to show a sharp jump in employment last month.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Eurozone services PMI for April
- 9am BST: UK car sales for April
- Noon BST: US weekly mortgage figures
- 1.15pm BST: ADP payroll of US private sector employment in April
- 3pm BST: US services PMI for April
Updated